Apologies. The vaccines are so omnipresent in the US with so many choosing to abstain that I foolishly assumed the same dynamic was occurring in the UK.
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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James J
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
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No problem! I'm glad that we're finally into the younger ages as a lot of the cases appear to be in those who haven't been eligible to have the vaccine yet. 75% of our adult population have now had at least their first shot and just under 50% have had their second, so we're getting there. These were the take up figures a couple of weeks ago:
GoofGoof
Premium Member
The bet I was referring to taking the under on was that it would take until the Fall to reach 70%. That’s an easy win. I will gladly take that a step further and go to 70% of adults with 1 shot before the end of July.You have repeatedly underestimated the degree to which voluntary vaccinations were slowing. Not along ago, you were saying even if it slowed significantly, we would still get to 70% by July 4th. (IIRC, you may have originally said we would get to 70% by end of May).
Numbers will continue to decline in all likelihood. Look at Israel… they have been stuck at the same vaccination level for the last month. Per Bloomberg, their “first shots” are now crawling at under 0.1% of the population per week.
We are at the point where almost all adults who want a vaccine, have gotten it.
So we are quickly entering the phase Israel is in. So yes… if we are at 67-68% by the end of June, at 0.1% per week, that’s another 20-30 weeks before we get to 70%.
I think it will be faster than 20-30 weeks, because FDA authorization may give a bump. Fall resurgences can give a bump. Dr. Gottlieb expects low vaccination over the summer but expects it to pick up over the fall:
Dr. Gottlieb: Fully vaccinated people should feel safe this summer but fall booster may be needed
Former FDA chief Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC that vulnerable Americans, in particular, could need an additional Covid shot this fall.www.google.com
So yes… I’ll take the bet that we are still under 70% by the end of July.
But hopefully it won’t matter. 70% isn’t a magical number.
By the way if we are at 0.1% per week as you are saying and we are at 63.5% of adults with one shot how exactly are we getting to 68% by July 1. Seems like we would be hard pressed to reach 64% by July 1.
I agree 70% isn’t a magic number and July 4 is not a magic date. That’s been my point all along.
Always agreed that there was no magic KNOWN vaccination level. There is a level that gets us to herd immunity, but we don't know exactly what that number is. That's why I have long said I'd be happy with 40% vaccination if it got us to herd immunity and I would be disappointed with 75% vaccination if it didn't get us to herd immunity.
I said 67-68% by July.
We are at 63.5% now and slowing.
I didn't say we are at 0.1% per week NOW, but we are headed in that direction.
Say it's .2% per day for the next 7 days... So it's 64.9% by June 14...
Then .1% per day for the next 7 days... So 65.6% by June 21..
Then .05% per day for the remainder of June..... That's 66% by the end of the month.
That's not precise, but that's pretty close to where the trend line is going right now. The 7-day rolling average of new first doses is now under 400,000 per day and falling fast. (per the CDC, the rolling average was 445,000 per day, a week ago).
Eventually, we will likely hit a point where we are doing well under 100,000 per day. Possibly even under 50,000 per day.
Basically, if you haven't gotten your first dose by now... Hard to imagine what's going to suddenly motivate you to go get your first shot.
Yup.. consistent with what I just posted..
Expect another few days of 0.2 per day..
By mid month, down to 0.1 per day..
Then ..3 per week... by the end of June..
Then down to 0.1-.2 per week.. into early July..
And by mid July and later, <0.1 per week
Tom P.
Well-Known Member
I think you drastically underestimate plain old laziness among people. I still think there are a ton of people out there who aren't opposed to getting a vaccine, but just haven't made the effort to go get one. As it becomes even more convenient -- say, being available at their own personal doctor's office -- and as more and more states offer incentives, those people will get the jab.
I don't think we've gotten to the stage of only dealing with the true holdouts. Not by a long shot.
It already is. At least around me, most private doctors have had it in their office for the last month.
And we are already deep into the "incentive phase."
Yes, there are lazy people putting it off. So lazy in fact... they may as well put it off until October. Or until December. Or until next year.
.... and if Covid is "gone".... masks are gone, etc.... So lazy, that really.. what's the point of even getting the vaccine any more?
If it was only the true hold outs, we would then be down to 0 new vaccinations per day. But the number of "mild procrastinators" will continue to decline. To the point where we are at the true holdouts and the extreme procrastinators. The trend line looks like a waterfall... almost straight down.
Falling 50% every 10 days. No reason to think it is suddenly going to smooth out.
50% drop every 10 days would be:
400,000 per day now
200,000 per day by mid June
under 100,000 per day by the end of the month
hopemax
Well-Known Member
I am curious to see what happens this fall. Last year, taught people that the summer was safer than winter and Thanksgiving and Christmas gatherings meant bad things happened. So are there people who are unmotivated right now or those who need a longer passage of time to resolve their safety data concerns but do understand that they need to get it done so they are fully vaccinated by mid-November.
I’m hoping that the September messaging will include a timeline like there is for “this is the date you have to order or ship to guarantee Christmas delivery.” An “in order to be fully vaccinated on Thanksgiving you need to have gotten your first shot by X.”
GoofGoof
Premium Member
I think it’s hard for a lot of people who went out and got vaccinated right away to understand the mentality of the people who aren’t vaccinated yet. I know I didn’t understand it and grossly underestimated how long people would take to go in. Through countless discussions both privately here and in the real world I think I’ve come to understand it more. I wouldn‘t go as far as say it makes sense to me, but I’m seeing their perspective a little clearer. I don’t think we are at the point where anyone who is going to get vaccinated has gone. There are people left. Not enough to get to 80-90% of adults. But enough to get us between 70 and 75% and maybe a slight bit higher eventually.
The true holdouts are sadly likely around 20% and mostly hopeless but we should be doing everything in our power to get from 64% to as close to 80% as we can get. It’s a state and local level effort at this point. I think we could get a bump from full FDA approval if that happens any time soon. Otherwise it will be a slow pace and a grind.
GimpYancIent
Well-Known Member
I am of the belief that eventually there will be only two categories of people left 1. those vaccinated and 2. those unvaccinated but became infected and survived. It will all sort itself out nature always finds a way.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
So based on this you seem confident we won’t hit 70% of adults by end of Summer. I will take the under on that for sure. As I said I’d even take the under on August 1 for the date we hit 70%. Now we just wait and see where things fall out.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
That all depends on herd immunity levels needed. For all we know we already have reached herd immunity levels and we are just waiting for cases to spiral down to zero. If we never reach true herd immunity then eventually I agree those will be the 2 categories. There‘s a chance there will be a 3rd category which is people protected by their neighbors who are immune.
Animaniac93-98
Well-Known Member
The website I use for tracking Canada's vaccine status now allows you to see what % of the eligible population (12+) has been vaccinated.
It's now over 70% for that group with one dose (61.5% total population).
It's now over 70% for that group with one dose (61.5% total population).
Yes, I'd say it's unlikely (not impossible), that we hit 70% by August 1st.
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SamusAranX
Well-Known Member
Meanwhile on the origins front, WSJ published an op-ed by two scientists that it’s more likely then not that not only did the virus escape from a lab, but that it wasn’t naturally occurring or originated.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
No hedging the bet. I have under you have over and 8/1 is the date. I’m giving you August and 3/4 of September already since you started off saying it wouldn’t be before the end of Summer. If we hit 70% on 8/1 it’s a push.
lol, I wasn't hedging, just typos as I'm doing a few things. I'll take the bet. I doubt we hit 70% by August 1st. It's not impossible. I wouldn't be totally shocked if we hit it by August 1st. But I think it's unlikely. So I'll take the bet and hope that I lose.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
On the subject. This is the most recent poll I could find online. 64% already vaccinated and 12% still plan to go in to get us to 76% vaccinated. There is another approximately 5% who say they won’t get the vaccine but could be convinced to change their mind and the rest say no, never. Pretty consistent for a few months now. The effort that is needed is to get all or most of that 12% to come in and maybe a portion of the 5%. The roughly 20% no nevers aren’t coming in and that’s OK. Too many people have written off anyone who is unvaccinated as part of that group but the reality is almost half the unvaccinated could still be reached.
news.gallup.com
COVID-19 Vaccine-Reluctant in U.S. Likely to Stay That Way
Seventy-six percent of U.S. adults report they have been vaccinated against COVID-19 or plan to be. One in five adults who do not plan to get vaccinated say they are at least somewhat likely to change their mind.
news.gallup.com
The_Jobu
Well-Known Member
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