This is much more likely in a real world scenario.
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
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GoofGoof
Premium Member
The second article references this survey.
From the survey:
60% Will require employees to demonstrate proof of vaccination
It doesn’t say they will require vaccination to work at all. A large number of employers have started requiring proof of vaccination to drop masks at work. In some states like NJ it’s a requirement. Employers must verify vaccination status to allow employees to go unmasked.
Epcotbob
Well-Known Member
Right, as a condition of dropping masks at work, not as a condition of employment as the original poster was talking about.
Only a small handful of companies have come forward requiring vaccination as a condition of employment.
lazyboy97o
Well-Known Member
Right, because business owners would never consider letting go the employees who costs the business more money than other employees.
Wendy Pleakley
Well-Known Member
It's crazy we even need to discuss this as a possibility.
We're in a golden age of knowledge and science. We have the tools to essentially eradicate another serious disease. This ability came about with remarkable speed. Furthermore, the USA is one of a handful of countries that can do this right now. Less well off countries could be a year or more away from catching up.
Yet, there's resistance. Conspiracy theories, false information, rejections of science and knowledge threaten to derail the response to COVID. People need to be coerced with lotteries just to take a vaccine that keeps them and others safe from illness.
It's insanity.
lazyboy97o
Well-Known Member
We already suffer the tyranny of not having to deal with smallpox, polio, yellow fever, malaria, rubella and diphtheria, why must we be oppressed and suffer more?
ParentsOf4
Well-Known Member
The thing is, experts have suggested many percentages.
A December 15, 2020 article in NPR included the following passages:
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's senior official for infectious diseases, predicts the United States could begin to achieve early stages of herd immunity against the deadly coronavirus by late spring or summer. And if that happens, Fauci anticipates, "we could really turn this thing around" toward the end of 2021.
...
"I would say 50% would have to get vaccinated before you start to see an impact," Fauci said. "But I would say 75 to 85% would have to get vaccinated if you want to have that blanket of herd immunity."
At a January 21, 2021 White House press briefing, Dr. Anthony Fauci said:
If we get 70 to 85 percent of the country vaccinated — let’s say by the end of the summer, middle of the summer — I believe by the time we get to the fall, we will be approaching a degree of normality. It’s not going to be perfectly normal, but one that I think will take a lot of pressure off the American public.
On March 18, 2021, Christie Aschwanden of Nature wrote:
That threshold is generally achievable only with high vaccination rates, and many scientists had thought that once people started being immunized en masse, herd immunity would permit society to return to normal. Most estimates had placed the threshold at 60–70% of the population gaining immunity, either through vaccinations or past exposure to the virus. But as the pandemic enters its second year, the thinking has begun to shift. In February, independent data scientist Youyang Gu changed the name of his popular COVID-19 forecasting model from ‘Path to Herd Immunity’ to ‘Path to Normality’. He said that reaching a herd-immunity threshold was looking unlikely because of factors such as vaccine hesitancy, the emergence of new variants and the delayed arrival of vaccinations for children.
An April 21, 2021 article on the AAMC website includes the following:
Alessandro Sette, Dr.Biol.Sci, an immunologist at the La Jolla Institute for Immunology in California whose lab has conducted extensive research into the immune response to the virus, agrees. “I would say 85% is a reasonable point of view and a goal to shoot for,” he says. “And then we would be pleased if it turns out that getting infections down is reached before that.”
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“It’s impossible to know what the magic threshold is for herd immunity” through vaccination, says Monica Gandhi, MD, MPH, a professor of medicine and associate division chief of the Division of HIV, Infectious Diseases, and Global Medicine at UCSF Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital and Trauma Center. “But if you look at Israel, which is the country that has vaccinated its population the fastest but is still testing a lot and is wide open, I’m very hopeful that that magic number is going to be somewhere between 60% and 70%.
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Gandhi is hopeful we’ll be able to reach some level of virus containment even sooner. “If I thought herd immunity had to happen at 90%, which we were thinking four months or even a week ago, I’d be more worried. But now that we see it’s not going to be that high, I’m not as worried,” she says.
In a May 3, 2021 article in the NYT, :
Early on, the target herd immunity threshold was estimated to be about 60 to 70 percent of the population. Most experts, including Dr. Fauci, expected that the United States would be able to reach it once vaccines were available.
But as vaccines were developed and distribution ramped up through the winter and into the spring, estimates of the threshold began to rise. That is because the initial calculations were based on the contagiousness of the original version of the virus. The predominant variant now circulating in the United States, called B.1.1.7 and first identified in Britain, is about 60 percent more transmissible.
As a result, experts now calculate the herd immunity threshold to be at least 80 percent. If even more contagious variants develop, or if scientists find that immunized people can still transmit the virus, the calculation will have to be revised upward again.
The following passage is from a May 18, 2021 article in NPR:
Based on current conditions, and the fact that young children are not yet eligible for vaccination, Lipsitch says he believes as much as 90% to 100% of adults would need to get vaccinated to cross the threshold.
And this one is from the Stanford Medicine News Center, dated May 27, 2021:
Parsonnet also is concerned that vaccine hesitancy remains high in the United States. Using an equation that estimates the transmissibility COVID-19 and the effectiveness of the available vaccines, her latest calculations show that about 90% of the United States would need to be fully vaccinated to reach herd immunity.
The point is, genuine experts have proposed numbers ranging from 60% to 90%.
No one knows for certain.
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BrianLo
Well-Known Member
Exactly. Before someone runs with this to invalidate experts, there is literally no way to really know other than retrospective cohort studies that will likely come out a number of years from now. They were absolutely guessing and there is no problem with that. It is different for every disease and different dependent on a vaccines efficacy.
I think what has changed is that the vaccines are actually more efficacious than what we typically have seen in the past.
The 70%-75% (approximately 60% of the total population) pulled out of the air by the Canadian government I think is both cautious, but also obtainable for that population. Which seems to be nicely driving acceptance. Whatever the right answer is, more is always better.
Over here in 'Merica, we do what we want..
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Wendy Pleakley
Well-Known Member
Yeah, I'll take cautious at this point, especially when the end is really near. People are clamoring for masks to go away at WDW, while less than half the population is fully vaccinated.
British Columbia, Canada had 1001 new cases on April 23rd at which point 30% of the population had a first vaccine dose.
On May 28th we had 317 new cases with 61% at first dose status.
Highlights the importance and effectiveness of first doses. Second doses are boosters, they improve the vaccine efficacy but are less important than getting a high percentage of the population vaccinated.
To those who laughed at me or think my idea is too harsh, I already conceded the point at the end of my post. Next time read the whole post.
I expect however that all healthcare/nursing home employers will take a much harsher stance and require it as soon as one (or both) RNA vaccines get full FDA authorization.
Also Rutgers Univ in NJ required incoming students this fall to show proof of vaccination to attend classes. Some parents and kids were visibly protesting the move. If one does not agree then attend college elsewhere.
SamusAranX
Well-Known Member
I don’t have an altruistic view enough of governments to give them the right to mandate a medical treatment by law to all citizens.
LaughingGravy
Well-Known Member
Employers fire when it suits them for whatever reason for the bottom line as a common excuse. Except for those who own their companies, nobody else is non-expendable.
lazyboy97o
Well-Known Member
So would the US be better off if polio was still present?
JoeCamel
Well-Known Member
So homeschooling is your future?
I’ve been fully vaxxed for a month. I was so nervous because I know people who administer the shots and they kept complaining about them being wasted. If so many get wasted then you can’t administrate them any more. Then the governor changed the rules to all adults and they filled the spots but most people haven’t been returning for their 2nd shot which is a huge problem.
Also this former YouTuber I used to subscribe to until I found out her and her husband are anti-vax, right wing, conspiracy theorist self hating nut jobs, whole family are walking around outside and inside Universal mask-less. My algorithm barely shows her and I forgot I still follow her on IG but she popped up on my storiesWhen they moved to Orlando she had to fill out non vaccinated forms for her children and stated the dumb thing all anti-vax idiots say:
mY kids HAVE nEVEr BeEN sICK (her kids are always sick and one child clearly has a serious underlying medical problem)
i hearD THEY cAUsE AUtiSm (autism is genetic)
Her kids even have to beg her to go to the doctor.
I’ve booked my trip for July but I will still wear a mask because I know those clowns aren’t the only ones lying. Please stay safe everyone and continue to wear a mask. Universal is so wrong for this. The parks have literally hit capacity almost every day for months so why are they doing this? I’m glad we aren’t going there.
Also this former YouTuber I used to subscribe to until I found out her and her husband are anti-vax, right wing, conspiracy theorist self hating nut jobs, whole family are walking around outside and inside Universal mask-less. My algorithm barely shows her and I forgot I still follow her on IG but she popped up on my storiesWhen they moved to Orlando she had to fill out non vaccinated forms for her children and stated the dumb thing all anti-vax idiots say:
mY kids HAVE nEVEr BeEN sICK (her kids are always sick and one child clearly has a serious underlying medical problem)
i hearD THEY cAUsE AUtiSm (autism is genetic)
Her kids even have to beg her to go to the doctor.
I’ve booked my trip for July but I will still wear a mask because I know those clowns aren’t the only ones lying. Please stay safe everyone and continue to wear a mask. Universal is so wrong for this. The parks have literally hit capacity almost every day for months so why are they doing this? I’m glad we aren’t going there.
Since Florida and some other states are not reporting numbers everyday this weekend, you cant believe the numbers the NY Times are any other organization is putting out this weekend. On Tuesday they every state will report their number so Tuesday night or Wednesday morning's report will be correct. However unless they break out the numbers per day the average daily resort will be wrong for another week.
JoeCamel
Well-Known Member
Daily numbers a a poor indicator of any trend. Worse than useless as they are not settled.
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