Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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Bullseye1967

Bullseye1967

Is that who I am?
Premium Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
the space force? 🤔
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No I'm pretty sure he meant:

et GIF
 
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seascape

Well-Known Member
According to the average number of cases reported by the NY Times, 23,136 and the US Census population of the US, 331.4 million, the US fell below 7 cases per 100,000. The new number of 6.9891 still rounds. up to 7 but the great news continue. As for the individual states we still have 7 at 11 or above with Florida still at 11 but with a falling average of 2,364. On the positive side 15 states are now 5 or less with another 9 including NY at 6. Yes, that means 3 of the big 4 states, NY, Texas and California are at 6 or less while Florida is still almost double that. Progress is good but Florida could still do better. Florida still has 10.22% of the cases in the US.

Almost forgot. The number to compare todays report to is 2,893, the number of cases Florida reported last Thursday.
 
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DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
seascape said:
According to the average number of cases reported by the NY Times, 23,136 and the US Census population of the US, 331.4 million, the US fell below 7 cases per 100,000. The new number of 6.9891 still rounds. up to 7 but the great news continue. As for the individual states we still have 7 at 11 or above with Florida still at 11 but with a falling average of 2,364. On the positive side 15 states are now 5 or less with another 9 including NY at 6. Yes, that means 3 of the big 4 states, NY, Texas and California are at 6 or less while Florida is still almost double that. Progress is good but Florida could still do better. Florida still has 10.22% of the cases in the US.

Almost forgot. The number to compare todays report to is 2,893, the number of cases Florida reported last Thursday.
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There are more variables at play than simply "doing better." Texas dropped all the mitigation (banned local mandates etc.) a lot sooner than Florida and Texas has a 5% lower percent of the population with at least one shot of the vaccine yet has around half of the new daily case rate.

As long as a decent number of people begin vaccination every day and cases continue to drop I don't really see an issue. 11 cases per 100k per day on average would have been considered low at the beginning of the year.
 
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DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
Why don’t you post a chart with the state vaccination levels?

then maybe we can get nasa on it and see if all the MIT guys can find a pattern/correlation? 🤓
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There's a nice color coded map at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations. While the lowest percentage States mostly correlate with another colored map (GA excluded), they are also very rural.

I'd imagine that the few densely populated areas of those States are pretty highly vaccinated. If somebody lives out in the middle of nowhere and never spends a significant amount of time gathered indoors in crowded scenarios, I don't think that them not being vaccinated will alter the trajectory of the pandemic much.

On this other color coded map from the CDC (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_community), the level of community spread in most of those states low on the vaccination percentage list are shown as having a "moderate" level of community transmission. Only CA is shown as "low" and many States with much higher vaccination percentages are also in the "moderate" category.

Getting to 60% of the population in FL vaccinated (which will hopefully happen in a couple of months) will have a much greater impact on reducing community spread than getting 80% of Wyoming vaccinated (which isn't ever going to happen anyway).
 
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seascape

Well-Known Member
DisneyCane said:
There are more variables at play than simply "doing better." Texas dropped all the mitigation (banned local mandates etc.) a lot sooner than Florida and Texas has a 5% lower percent of the population with at least one shot of the vaccine yet has around half of the new daily case rate.

As long as a decent number of people begin vaccination every day and cases continue to drop I don't really see an issue. 11 cases per 100k per day on average would have been considered low at the beginning of the year.
Click to expand...
Prior to December 2020 the magic number not to tequire quarantines was 10 cases per 100,000. Florida came close to reaching it in September but just missed. Now, they are making a run at it and this time we all know they will mske it. My only issue is that back in January, Florida had a much better rate than either NJ or NY BUT NOW ARE MUCH HIGHER. I want this pandemic declared over in the US and that wont happen until every state is under 5. We are not that far away but neef to just keep following common sense health standards. I do love the fact that some people are complaining that I am calling out Florida now after months of saying how much better they were doing than NY and NJ.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
DisneyCane said:
There's a nice color coded map at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations. While the lowest percentage States mostly correlate with another colored map (GA excluded), they are also very rural.

I'd imagine that the few densely populated areas of those States are pretty highly vaccinated. If somebody lives out in the middle of nowhere and never spends a significant amount of time gathered indoors in crowded scenarios, I don't think that them not being vaccinated will alter the trajectory of the pandemic much.

On this other color coded map from the CDC (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_community), the level of community spread in most of those states low on the vaccination percentage list are shown as having a "moderate" level of community transmission. Only CA is shown as "low" and many States with much higher vaccination percentages are also in the "moderate" category.

Getting to 60% of the population in FL vaccinated (which will hopefully happen in a couple of months) will have a much greater impact on reducing community spread than getting 80% of Wyoming vaccinated (which isn't ever going to happen anyway).
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this is the “cows vs humans” concept

Nothing that you say is unreasonable...

...except Florida. Not only is it the most “at risk” population...which (ahem) people like to beat the misdirection drum about as “only mattering” for a solid year...

...and the population is NOT hard to get too.

must be the water or something there??
 
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DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
seascape said:
Prior to December 2020 the magic number not to tequire quarantines was 10 cases per 100,000. Florida came close to reaching it in September but just missed. Now, they are making a run at it and this time we all know they will mske it. My only issue is that back in January, Florida had a much better rate than either NJ or NY BUT NOW ARE MUCH HIGHER. I want this pandemic declared over in the US and that wont happen until every state is under 5. We are not that far away but neef to just keep following common sense health standards. I do love the fact that some people are complaining that I am calling out Florida now after months of saying how much better they were doing than NY and NJ.
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I'm not complaining. Just stating that there are a lot more variables at play than we are considering and it isn't as simple as just "doing better." Look at Colorado, 53.2% of the population with at least one shot, a mitigation supportive governor yet has the second highest daily case rate (second to Delaware). At the same time, Texas is worse than FL in all pandemic management metrics and has a much lower case rate than FL.

For the pandemic to end in the US, by definition, every state doesn't need to get under 5 per 100k daily. A pandemic means that the disease is prevalent over the whole country. If it isn't prevalent in 90% of the States it is no longer a pandemic. It would just be five States with epidemics.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
seascape said:
Prior to December 2020 the magic number not to tequire quarantines was 10 cases per 100,000. Florida came close to reaching it in September but just missed. Now, they are making a run at it and this time we all know they will mske it. My only issue is that back in January, Florida had a much better rate than either NJ or NY BUT NOW ARE MUCH HIGHER. I want this pandemic declared over in the US and that wont happen until every state is under 5. We are not that far away but neef to just keep following common sense health standards. I do love the fact that some people are complaining that I am calling out Florida now after months of saying how much better they were doing than NY and NJ.
Click to expand...

everything that happened went EXACTLY the way the epidemiologists said it would.

exactly. Brains matter.
 
D

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
this is the “cows vs humans” concept

Nothing that you say is unreasonable...

...except Florida. Not only is it the most “at risk” population...which (ahem) people like to beat the misdirection drum about as “only mattering” for a solid year...

...and the population is NOT hard to get too.

must be the water or something there??
Click to expand...
To date, 86.6% of 65+ in FL have had at least one shot. Also, to date, 82% of COVID fatalities in FL were 65+. The "at risk" population is protecting themselves by getting vaccinated. I expect that it will eventually get to 90% or a little more.

It's still the under 45 (and especially under 35) who are getting shots at an extremely slow rate.
 
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DisneyFan32

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
Yes
DisneyCane said:
I'm not complaining. Just stating that there are a lot more variables at play than we are considering and it isn't as simple as just "doing better." Look at Colorado, 53.2% of the population with at least one shot, a mitigation supportive governor yet has the second highest daily case rate (second to Delaware). At the same time, Texas is worse than FL in all pandemic management metrics and has a much lower case rate than FL.

For the pandemic to end in the US, by definition, every state doesn't need to get under 5 per 100k daily. A pandemic means that the disease is prevalent over the whole country. If it isn't prevalent in 90% of the States it is no longer a pandemic. It would just be five States with epidemics.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I'm now worried about NJ and NY in during this fall/winter. Is NJ and NY will be back to normal as low cases in this fall/winter too?
 
GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
DisneyCane said:
There are more variables at play than simply "doing better." Texas dropped all the mitigation (banned local mandates etc.) a lot sooner than Florida and Texas has a 5% lower percent of the population with at least one shot of the vaccine yet has around half of the new daily case rate.

As long as a decent number of people begin vaccination every day and cases continue to drop I don't really see an issue. 11 cases per 100k per day on average would have been considered low at the beginning of the year.
Click to expand...
In reality FL is doing “better” than TX with 48% of the population with at least one dose while TX is at 43%. I know it’s a broken record and I’m certainly not wishing for anyone’s numbers to get worse, but the variants are a lot more common in FL than TX and a lot more contagious. If the variants were to arrive and spread more heavily in TX not having many mitigations left and having a below average vaccination rate will not be a good combo. Let’s hope that never happens. 43% isn’t zero, but there’s still a great deal of work to do.
DisneyCane said:
Explain Texas. The epidemiologists would have certainly predicted a much higher case rate now with the lack of mitigation and low-ish vaccination rate.
Click to expand...
See above👆
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
DisneyCane said:
To date, 86.6% of 65+ in FL have had at least one shot. Also, to date, 82% of COVID fatalities in FL were 65+. The "at risk" population is protecting themselves by getting vaccinated. I expect that it will eventually get to 90% or a little more.

It's still the under 45 (and especially under 35) who are getting shots at an extremely slow rate.
Click to expand...

So I’m still waiting for a plausible explanation on the younger sect? Don’t blow your O-Rings trying to figure it out.

DisneyCane said:
Explain Texas. The epidemiologists would have certainly predicted a much higher case rate now with the lack of mitigation and low-ish vaccination rate.
Click to expand...

there’s never been any “explanation” or Texas. There’s honestly never been any trust either.

so after being pretty much wrong about the whole...darn...thing...
We’re gonna debate the “Texas stance”? Their mitigation was dropped to provide cover for a public utilities scandal disaster. It was a POLITICAL play.

three things are undefeated:
1. Father time
2. Mother nature
3. History
 
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GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
DisneyCane said:
I'm not complaining. Just stating that there are a lot more variables at play than we are considering and it isn't as simple as just "doing better." Look at Colorado, 53.2% of the population with at least one shot, a mitigation supportive governor yet has the second highest daily case rate (second to Delaware). At the same time, Texas is worse than FL in all pandemic management metrics and has a much lower case rate than FL.

For the pandemic to end in the US, by definition, every state doesn't need to get under 5 per 100k daily. A pandemic means that the disease is prevalent over the whole country. If it isn't prevalent in 90% of the States it is no longer a pandemic. It would just be five States with epidemics.
Click to expand...
Anyone know the prevalence of variants in Colorado these days? It was shown that Michigan exploded and it was heavily driven by the variants, same with CA in Jan and the NE in March. In CA it took months for the spike to drop down since few people were vaccinated. As we have seen in the NE the variant driven spike was smaller than past waves and short lived due to vaccination levels.
 
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