Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[lazyboy97o]

The problem is that the conditions we've operated under during Covid are not sustainable in the long-term, such as doing them every flu season. You could not simply switch back to businesses having capacity limits, schools being shut down, six foot social distancing being required, entertainment venues closed, people asked to say away from their family members, etc. every time flu season rolls around. And while you could have people mask up each flu season, we don't know what, if any, effect that alone would have because the virtual elimination of the flu has been with masking in combination with all those other far more harsh mitigation measures.

Why? People lived with other disease outbreaks that disrupted business and the world and the economy continued to turn. Polio would shut down schools and businesses. Instead of saying “Oh well, can’t do anything about it” huge efforts were made to curtail a variety of diseases such that they are no longer an issue. Faced with a new challenge we have given up without ever trying. Even without all of the same restrictions we have found things that work: masks, ventilation, working from home, more lenient sick time, incredibly effective new vaccines but instead we have to get back to the way things were because of reasons.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Why? People lived with other disease outbreaks that disrupted business and the world and the economy continued to turn. Polio would shut down schools and businesses. Instead of saying “Oh well, can’t do anything about it” huge efforts were made to curtail a variety of diseases such that they are no longer an issue. Faced with a new challenge we have given up without ever trying.

Not to mention that his flu analogy is more tiresome than having to endure a Tyler Perry movie.

 

[correcaminos]

Not sure how you start developing a booster now, for a variant that doesn't exist yet.

For the variants that came up. They already figured out how to develop them just in case. It didn't take them long. It won't take them long if they need. So far they have had zero need for them. But they've trialed through some variants just in case, so a lot of leg work and idea on how it affects people to have a booster has been done.

They don't need approval for each variants that go into a vaccine. They don't for flu, I do not see at all why they would for these. Technology will be the same which is why it didn't take them long to test out boosters to see how they worked with variants - though so far as I said we haven't needed.

Until we need a booster, I am honestly just not going to worry about it. I have faith these scientists know what they are doing. So far every time someone freaks about a variant it turns out to not be a problem for most vaccines.

 

[DisneyFan32]

Holy smokes wait until Phil Murphy will find this!

 

[correcaminos]

I'm not convinced that there will be boosters, or at least not as frequently as some are saying. Right now, it's all speculation. So far, there have been no studies showing people who have been vaccinated who later lost the immunity. Covid and the Covid vaccines just haven't been around long enough. They are taking an educated guess and also trying to be prepared in case boosters are necessary. But there is no data yet that actually says they will be.

They can look at amount of degradation and make guesses though. So far what I've read/been told the immunity is looking good even longer term. The immune response is more robust than covid infections naturally which if those are good a year later.... again I'm not about to worry. I'll be called in if something changes.

 

[Disney Analyst]

The problem is that the conditions we've operated under during Covid are not sustainable in the long-term, such as doing them every flu season. You could not simply switch back to businesses having capacity limits, schools being shut down, six foot social distancing being required, entertainment venues closed, people asked to say away from their family members, etc. every time flu season rolls around. And while you could have people mask up each flu season, we don't know what, if any, effect that alone would have because the virtual elimination of the flu has been with masking in combination with all those other far more harsh mitigation measures.

I mean, I don't think anyone expects us to fully shut down come future flu seasons, the point is that it proves these measures do have an important effect, but many try to downplay them or say they don't work because Covid is still being transmitted.

The flu being pretty much non-existent this year proves two things:

1) These measures help prevent spread of illness
2) Covid is a highly contagious and worrisome virus that even with tight measures in place, it can still spread at a high rate.

 

[Chi84]

Why? People lived with other disease outbreaks that disrupted business and the world and the economy continued to turn. Polio would shut down schools and businesses. Instead of saying “Oh well, can’t do anything about it” huge efforts were made to curtail a variety of diseases such that they are no longer an issue. Faced with a new challenge we have given up without ever trying. Even without all of the same restrictions we have found things that work: masks, ventilation, working from home, more lenient sick time, incredibly effective new vaccines but instead we have to get back to the way things were because of reasons.

I think most people (at least the ones I know) are careful about their health, but not concerned to the extent that they would want to follow COVID-type mitigation measures for common illnesses like colds and flu. Heck, Disney put calorie counts on some of its menus a while back and people went bonkers even though all they had to do was ignore them.

I do think that people will be more aware of the importance of things we have always been told to do, like staying home from work when you're sick and properly washing your hands. And I'll never get on a plane again without a mask handy in case the person jammed in next to me is visibly ill.

 

[lisa12000]

I am sure someone will say I am a doom and gloomer but is anyone following the UK situation?https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk...9-cases-highest-daily-total-month-2021-05-20/

just wanted to respond to this. Apologies that it’s out of kilter with current discussions.

our govt always said that cases would go up when we opened up and I’m surprised they haven’t gone up before now. Coupled with the fact that about the same time of opening we have had the worst weather ever as in rain rain and more rain which has scuppered outside dining and drinking and pushed people more indoors even when they shouldn’t.

Our PCR positivity rate per day is 0.7% of tests ahd a large proportion of cases remain in the 10-19 age range- we have also started to change the way we report and our specimen date data is more accurate as we are taking LFT positives off if they are followed up with a negative PCR - so case numbers per specimen date actually often go down. We are still reporting an average of a million tests per days (population 67 million) and are surge testing in three places blackburn, bolton and Bedford particularly where we are now surge vaccinating as well. To put it into context - in england if we take the last 7 days cases reported compared to the previous & days cases have gone up by 2.7% (we had 3/4 days of case numbers lower than the previous week) which equals about 300 cases in the week - not such a big number for sure.

SAGE have come out today and said they no longer are sure that the variant is any more transmissible and the issues with bolton especially come from people who are in manual jobs, low pay, struggling to stop off sick, multi generational households and low vaccine take up. When we loosened restrictions last year we had the same issues with leicester so I’m not buying the doom abd gloom surrounding this variant and I’m thoroughly sick to death of our media promoting fear! It’s still vile over here atmosphere wise jn my opinion and many of my friends are a ill living in the edge, anxious and depressed!

 

[Chomama]

just wanted to respond to this. Apologies that it’s out of kilter with current discussions.

our govt always said that cases would go up when we opened up and I’m surprised they haven’t gone up before now. Coupled with the fact that about the same time of opening we have had the worst weather ever as in rain rain and more rain which has scuppered outside dining and drinking and pushed people more indoors even when they shouldn’t.

Our PCR positivity rate per day is 0.7% of tests ahd a large proportion of cases remain in the 10-19 age range- we have also started to change the way we report and our specimen date data is more accurate as we are taking LFT positives off if they are followed up with a negative PCR - so case numbers per specimen date actually often go down. We are still reporting an average of a million tests per days (population 67 million) and are surge testing in three places blackburn, bolton and Bedford particularly where we are now surge vaccinating as well. To put it into context - in england if we take the last 7 days cases reported compared to the previous & days cases have gone up by 2.7% (we had 3/4 days of case numbers lower than the previous week) which equals about 300 cases in the week - not such a big number for sure.

SAGE have come out today and said they no longer are sure that the variant is any more transmissible and the issues with bolton especially come from people who are in manual jobs, low pay, struggling to stop off sick, multi generational households and low vaccine take up. When we loosened restrictions last year we had the same issues with leicester so I’m not buying the doom abd gloom surrounding this variant and I’m thoroughly sick to death of our media promoting fear! It’s still vile over here atmosphere wise jn my opinion and many of my friends are a ill living in the edge, anxious and depressed!

Thanks for the on the ground perspective! It is so interesting that he media presents things differently than what you are experiencing. Thankfully it seems like the news isn’t so bad!!

 

[lisa12000]

Thanks for the on the ground perspective! It is so interesting that he media presents things differently than what you are experiencing. Thankfully it seems like the news isn’t so bad!!

Yep - this is a more positive article

The Times & The Sunday Times

News and opinion from The Times & The Sunday Times

www.thetimes.co.uk

 

[Disney Experience]

Using the mRNA technique, not long at all. They just need to know the complete amino acid sequence of the spike protein variants, backwards code them into mRNA and multiply the sequence exponentially through a PCR machine. The beauty of the mRNA technique is how easily you can make them.

They would have to deal with any changes that impact how they maintain the 3D shape and keep it in the prefusion conformation. If the mutations did not alter those parts then the work to create the new vaccine is less.

 

[Disney Experience]

This is for the phase 3 trial. Both companies started their trials for younger kids but the first phase (1/2) was a smaller trial to determine the proper dose. Once the dose is decided they are both doing a full phase 3 trial with thousands of participants. The initial phase 1/2 dose trials are about to wrap up so they are lining up participants now for the phase 3
trial.

CHOP is working with Moderna on their kidcove trial. Based on the response we got it looks like they are about to ramp up the phase 3 trial.

CHOP participating in Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine trial for young children

The study is the first to include infants and toddlers

www.phillyvoice.com

I know in central Florida Accel Research in Deland, Fl still needs children for Phase 3 covid vaccine trials.

 

[BrianLo]

Percentage of Canadians who have 1st COVID-19 vaccine surpasses U.S. | Globalnews.ca

The percentage of Canadians who have received their first COVID-19 vaccine has, for the first time, surpassed the United States.

globalnews.ca

Sometimes the turtle wins the race

We're skyrocketing even better than I thought we would a couple weeks back. Knowing appointments are booked out a month and the majority of Canadian regions still aren't fully 12+ eligible, I think we'll be caught up to UK by the end of next week! I really hope our pace doesn't let up until we catch up to Israel.

We are trying that now here in the US. Slowing down the pace . For WDW the UK and Canada are both doing very well with vaccinations so a large portion of the normal International tourists may be back sooner than a lot of people expected. Maybe not this Summer, but possibly by the 50th on Oct 1.

Here's hoping! I think many of us have trips lined up for the October/November window. I just need the return quarantine restriction removed and I'll gladly come.

 

[Flugell]

just wanted to respond to this. Apologies that it’s out of kilter with current discussions.

our govt always said that cases would go up when we opened up and I’m surprised they haven’t gone up before now. Coupled with the fact that about the same time of opening we have had the worst weather ever as in rain rain and more rain which has scuppered outside dining and drinking and pushed people more indoors even when they shouldn’t.

Our PCR positivity rate per day is 0.7% of tests ahd a large proportion of cases remain in the 10-19 age range- we have also started to change the way we report and our specimen date data is more accurate as we are taking LFT positives off if they are followed up with a negative PCR - so case numbers per specimen date actually often go down. We are still reporting an average of a million tests per days (population 67 million) and are surge testing in three places blackburn, bolton and Bedford particularly where we are now surge vaccinating as well. To put it into context - in england if we take the last 7 days cases reported compared to the previous & days cases have gone up by 2.7% (we had 3/4 days of case numbers lower than the previous week) which equals about 300 cases in the week - not such a big number for sure.

SAGE have come out today and said they no longer are sure that the variant is any more transmissible and the issues with bolton especially come from people who are in manual jobs, low pay, struggling to stop off sick, multi generational households and low vaccine take up. When we loosened restrictions last year we had the same issues with leicester so I’m not buying the doom abd gloom surrounding this variant and I’m thoroughly sick to death of our media promoting fear! It’s still vile over here atmosphere wise jn my opinion and many of my friends are a ill living in the edge, anxious and depressed!

I agree with everything you said apart from the last sentence. I don’t feel there is a vile atmosphere at all, in fact the contrary, the U.K. seems a much happier place at the moment.
Also the media are not promoting fear as much as they did but if they are overplaying it a bit, surely that encourages people to get vaccinated ASAP!

 

[GoofGoof]

2.2M doses administered yesterday, 1.1M were new first doses (800K in adults). It seems like the pace of adults getting new doses has picked up some in the last week. 23.7M adults to go (9.2% of 18+) to get to 70% of adults with at least 1 shot.

 

[DisneyFan32]

I'm afraid if we don't reach 70-75% people got vaccinated by July 4th, we will have future surges.... I hope by July 4th as many people will got vaccinated to reach herd immunity like 75-80%.

 

[seascape]

The lastest numbers came out and the US is down to a 7 day average of 27,190, or 8.2 cases per 100,000. Colorado and Michigan are tied at 15 for the worst states and just 13 states have 11 or more cases per 100,000 and 9 states have 5 or less. We continue to make progress and even Florida is down to 2,665 or 12 cases per 100,000.

The drop from Thursday to Friday was
a whopping 6%. I don't expect such big drops to continue but the numbers will continue to fall. The one thing I am fairly certain of is that the US will fall below 25,000 before the end of May and in fact we could be close to 20,000.

 

[Polkadotdress]

I know in central Florida Accel Research in Deland, Fl still needs children for Phase 3 covid vaccine trials.

My daughter is part of a vaccine trial for Novovax with Accel in Deland!

 

[Yodascousin]

We are trying that now here in the US. Slowing down the pace . For WDW the UK and Canada are both doing very well with vaccinations so a large portion of the normal International tourists may be back sooner than a lot of people expected. Maybe not this Summer, but possibly by the 50th on Oct 1.

A lot of people this side of the pond really hope it’s this summer! Especially now that our data is a lot better then countries which are currently allowed in

 

[Bullseye1967]

I'm not convinced that there will be boosters, or at least not as frequently as some are saying. Right now, it's all speculation. So far, there have been no studies showing people who have been vaccinated who later lost the immunity. Covid and the Covid vaccines just haven't been around long enough. They are taking an educated guess and also trying to be prepared in case boosters are necessary. But there is no data yet that actually says they will be.

I am far to lazy to look up the articles but I have seen many that say the science side says there is no reason to expect booster shots in the near future. They only people that seem to be pushing boosters is the media and the CEO's of the companies producing the vaccines. All 3 that are being used in the US have stated it will happen but with no data to back it up.

The question is, how long would it take to produce and administer the booster?

It would depend on if it was for lagging immunity or a new variant that could beat the vaccines. Even if it was a weird variant, the mRNA sequencing could be done in a very short period of time. The have been looking into this all along.

Yeah, that would be a lot easier to enforce for employees. I think even the honor system would probably work ok for a lot of employers since I think employees would be less likely to lie then a random person off the street.

I am in Tennessee. Our vaccination rate is really bad. I am not in one of the really bad rural areas but still bad. The masking policies for almost all businesses here is: if you are vaccinated, you do not have to wear a mask as an employee or customer. The customer mask rate is about 20% and almost all of those have younger children with them. So 80% of adults are mask free. I was not surprised by this. What did surprise me is that about 80% of the employees (many incorrectly) are still wearing masks. So either the business is actually checking or the employees are honest.

Why? People lived with other disease outbreaks that disrupted business and the world and the economy continued to turn. Polio would shut down schools and businesses. Instead of saying “Oh well, can’t do anything about it” huge efforts were made to curtail a variety of diseases such that they are no longer an issue. Faced with a new challenge we have given up without ever trying. Even without all of the same restrictions we have found things that work: masks, ventilation, working from home, more lenient sick time, incredibly effective new vaccines but instead we have to get back to the way things were because of reasons.

Why have we "given up without even trying" These were the fastest and most effective vaccines to ever be seen in history. We have used science to figure out what is a risk and what isn't. Your "reasons" are actually "science" I am not even going to go into the masking studies. They did do something but at best they bought us some time. I am remembering (after 2 Jack and cokes ) that the multiple mask studies showed a difference of 1.7 to 2.9. Prove me wrong but it won't be far from that.