Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Trauma]

So I’ll be taking my daughter out of school Friday to get her vaccine. I’m happy with how quickly I was able to get an appointment.

 

[sullyinMT]

That wasn’t our experience May 1-8. We ate at Satu’li, Flametree and ABC Commissary and had no problem getting immediate ordering windows.

Glad to hear this is still the case. It was our experience in November, too. Lunch at 11 or 1-ish did help, though. Not sure if that was dumb luck or just common sense.

 

[Chi84]

Well...somebody here is full of $h....
Which is it?

Could be just timing. We didn’t try to order until after 1:00. It’s possible the early slots could get taken much faster.

 

[DisneyFan32]

is COVID-19 is not going away, is going still a threat for years or not? Is booster vaccine to stop spreading COVID-19 variant too? Is there will be no more surges / spikes in US?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Well...somebody here is full of $h....
Which is it?

we were there the traditional week after Easter...but it’s possible the times we ordered just didn’t line up right with crowds?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So I’ll be taking my daughter out of school Friday to get her vaccine. I’m happy with how quickly I was able to get an appointment.

had my choice of any slots/times...decided to do it after the weekend.

which is sad...because demand at our “megasite” has flatlined. If the feds weren’t paying...they’d likely close it.

 

[ParentsOf4]

If you look at the drop in first doses -- Which is what we are talking about here --

The 7 day rolling average as of:
4/11: 1.9 million
4/18: 1.4 million (21% drop)
4/25: 1.1 million (21% drop)
5/1: 875,000 ((20% drop)
5/7: 715,000 (18% drop in 6 days)

The 5/7 number you post (715,000) is the number of first dosages on May 7, not the "7 day rolling average". Per the CDC, the 7-day moving average on May 7 was 650,964. Please refer to the following chart from the CDC:

Depending on the day of the week, there is a great deal of variance. Therefore, you should look at this in whole week increments.

The most recent day that the CDC reported a moving average is May 7. I'll use that as the end date, and count backwards week-by-week.

This results in the following 7-day moving averages as reported by the CDC (with percent drop from previous week), for those receiving a first dose:

• April 9: 1,831,161
• April 16: 1,547,994 (15.5% drop)
• April 23: 1,134,806 (26.7% drop)
• April 30: 918,792 (19.0% drop)
• May 7: 650,964 (29.1% drop)

As you note, we need to focus on those receiving first doses. This tells us how many additional people are being vaccinated per day, on average, for that week.

As you suggest, second doses are a trailing indicator and will lag behind those receiving first doses. For example, for the week of April 16, the 7-day moving average was 1,547,994 receiving a first dose each day. This is significantly more than those receiving a first dose for the week of May 7. Chances are, there were more people receiving a second dose for the week of May 7 than who received a first dose for that same week.

From April 9 to May 7, we've gone from a daily first dose average of 1,831,161 to 650,964. Together, these two numbers tell us the decline in first doses over this timespan.

For those interested where this data is coming from, I encourage you to visit the below CDC page and then filter on "People Receiving Dose 1".

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends

 

[ParentsOf4]

From what I have read, and plan on doing when our park gauntlet starts on Friday... you have to pick your restaurant and mobile ordering time when you enter the park. If you wait until meal time, there may not be a time to select.

So yep, lots of fun.

That wasn’t our experience May 1-8. We ate at Satu’li, Flametree and ABC Commissary and had no problem getting immediate ordering windows.

Could be just timing. We didn’t try to order until after 1:00. It’s possible the early slots could get taken much faster.

Right, we tend to eat at odd times (e.g. mid afternoon) and usually get our food right away.

But as we walked by QS restaurants from 11-1, several had crazy long waits.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

From what I have read, and plan on doing when our park gauntlet starts on Friday... you have to pick your restaurant and mobile ordering time when you enter the park. If you wait until meal time, there may not be a time to select.

So yep, lots of fun.

This was my experience a few weeks ago. If you were going to lunch at 11:30 through around 12:30ish you had a time of about 20 minutes to half hour to wait. Same with the dinner part of it. Any other times during the day were fine and could go right up. I went for a dole whip float at 2:30 in the afternoon and had a time wait of 15 minutes. Weird. But it was busy and 94 degrees out so there’s that.

 

[havoc315]

The 5/7 number you post (715,000) is the number of first dosages on May 7, not the "7 day rolling average". Per the CDC, the 7-day moving average on May 7 was 650,964.

You’re correct. Meant to use the rolling average, just grabbed the wrong number. The average was even worse

Please refer to the following chart from the CDC:

View attachment 557038

Depending on the day of the week, there is a great deal of variance. Therefore, you should look at this in whole week increments.

The most recent day that the CDC reported a rolling average is May 7. I'll use that as the end date, and count backwards week-by-week.

The good news is that there is evidence of an uptick this week. So hopefully the decline this week isn’t nearly as significant — hopefully we are starting to flatten.

This results in the following 7-day moving averages reported as reported by the CDC (with percent drop from previous week), for thsoe receiving a first dose:

• April 9: 1,831,161
• April 16: 1,547,994 (15.5% drop)
• April 23: 1,134,806 (26.7% drop)
• April 30: 918,792 (19.0% drop)
• May 7: 650,964 (29.1% drop)

As you note, we need to focus on those receiving first doses. This tells us how many additional people are being vaccinated per day, on average, for that week.

As you suggest, second doses are a trailing indicator and will lag behind those receiving first doses. For example, for the week of April 16, the 7-day moving average was 1,547,994 receiving a first dose each day. This is significantly more than those receiving a first dose for the week of May 7. Chances are, there were more people receiving a second dose for the week of May 7 than who received a first dose for that same week.

From April 9 to May 7, we've gone from a daily first dose average of 1,831,161 to 650,964. Together, these two numbers tell us the decline in first doses in four weeks.

About a 65% drop in a month. If that rate of decline were to continue (not saying it will… I suspect the rate of decline will start to slow), we would be at just 230,000 per day by mid June.

Eventually, we will get to a point where there is a steady trickle of people getting first doses: some people just aging in to eligibility, some people getting it because it’s required by their school or employer, or required for travel.

For those interested where this data is coming from, I encourage you to visit the below CDC page and then filter on "People Receiving Dose 1".

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends

 

[DCBaker]

 

[havoc315]

you know...I’m not really a quickserve guy...but what we did order in early April was available almost immediately...very little if any lag

Seems to depend on location and time of order. Noon at DHS or MK can be a very long wait, to my understanding.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Seems to depend on location and time of order. Noon at DHS or MK can be a very long wait, to my understanding.

I see the problem...

the quickserve there other than pecos sucks beyond belief...avoid it

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The 5/7 number you post (715,000) is the number of first dosages on May 7, not the "7 day rolling average". Per the CDC, the 7-day moving average on May 7 was 650,964. Please refer to the following chart from the CDC:

View attachment 557038

Depending on the day of the week, there is a great deal of variance. Therefore, you should look at this in whole week increments.

The most recent day that the CDC reported a moving average is May 7. I'll use that as the end date, and count backwards week-by-week.

This results in the following 7-day moving averages as reported by the CDC (with percent drop from previous week), for those receiving a first dose:

• April 9: 1,831,161
• April 16: 1,547,994 (15.5% drop)
• April 23: 1,134,806 (26.7% drop)
• April 30: 918,792 (19.0% drop)
• May 7: 650,964 (29.1% drop)

As you note, we need to focus on those receiving first doses. This tells us how many additional people are being vaccinated per day, on average, for that week.

As you suggest, second doses are a trailing indicator and will lag behind those receiving first doses. For example, for the week of April 16, the 7-day moving average was 1,547,994 receiving a first dose each day. This is significantly more than those receiving a first dose for the week of May 7. Chances are, there were more people receiving a second dose for the week of May 7 than who received a first dose for that same week.

From April 9 to May 7, we've gone from a daily first dose average of 1,831,161 to 650,964. Together, these two numbers tell us the decline in first doses over this timespan.

For those interested where this data is coming from, I encourage you to visit the below CDC page and then filter on "People Receiving Dose 1".

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends

if I didn’t know the facts...I’d look at that chart and think we were already at 75% or above vaccinated.

it’s rather pathetic that “hold outs” are numbering in the tens of millions. We have no supply problem now.

 

[ParentsOf4]

On April 28 the total adults with 1 shot was 140,792,606 so 5,542,529 for the previous 7 days (4/28 - 5/5) which is an average of 791,790 a day. That means this weeks 731,452 a day average is a decrease of 7.6%

Sorry, I don't understand your numbers. I've used the CDC site to take 3 screen captures in order to show how the rate of first doses has declined for the dates I think you had in mind.

Let's start with some basic numbers from the CDC. These are the total number of first doses.

• April 21: 139,419,420
• April 28: 146,374,502
• May 5: 151,596,332

This means:

• 6,955,082 first doses from April 22 to April 28 (7 days)
• 5,221,830 first doses from April 29 to May 5 (7 days)

This represents a decline of 24.9%.

Please refer to the below screen captures for the CDC data.

 

[Trauma]

Sorry, I don't understand your numbers. I've used the CDC site to take 3 screen captures in order to show how the rate of first doses has declined for the dates I think you had in mind.

Let's start with some basic numbers from the CDC. These are the total number of first doses.

• April 21: 139,419,420
• April 28: 146,374,502
• May 5: 151,596,332

This means:

• 6,955,082 first doses from April 22 to April 28 (7 days)
• 5,221,830 first doses from April 29 to May 5 (7 days)

This represents a decline of 24.9%.

Please refer to the below screen captures for the CDC data.

View attachment 557062


View attachment 557063

View attachment 557064

I have learned when Po4 starts posting charts and numbers to nod my head and know it’s probably gonna be right.

 

[Tom P.]

if I didn’t know the facts...I’d look at that chart and think we were already at 75% or above vaccinated.

it’s rather pathetic that “hold outs” are numbering in the tens of millions. We have no supply problem now.

I would assume that a significant number of the unvaccinated are not actually hold-outs. Rather, I think there is a large portion of the population who will eventually get vaccinated, but will just do so when they get around to it and aren't prioritizing it. Like if they happen to be in a CVS and there's no wait, then they might go ahead and do it. But they're not making any special effort to get it.

If you think about the regular flu shot, there's a reason places are still administering it in April and May, even though flu season is effectively over. Lots of people who aren't anti-vax are just slow about getting in to get their shots. I was guilty of that last year -- didn't get my flu shot until January or February -- and I'm certainly not anti-vax.

That's why I continue to be hopeful that vaccine numbers will continue to improve over the next couple of months, despite some of the overly publicized nonsense from the anti-vax crowd.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I would assume that a significant number of the unvaccinated are not actually hold-outs. Rather, I think there is a large portion of the population who will eventually get vaccinated, but will just do so when they get around to it and aren't prioritizing it. Like if they happen to be in a CVS and there's no wait, then they might go ahead and do it. But they're not making any special effort to get it.

If you think about the regular flu shot, there's a reason places are still administering it in April and May, even though flu season is effectively over. Lots of people who aren't anti-vax are just slow about getting in to get their shots. I was guilty of that last year -- didn't get my flu shot until January or February -- and I'm certainly not anti-vax.

That's why I continue to be hopeful that vaccine numbers will continue to improve over the next couple of months, despite some of the overly publicized nonsense from the anti-vax crowd.

so they are “just so busy!”?

...the traditional battlecry of those that really have nothing to do

 

[Lilofan]

so they are “just so busy!”?

...the traditional battlecry of those that really have nothing to do

"I'm so busy " is the most socially acceptable catch all excuse of someone that does not want to commit/go through it excuse.

 

[seascape]

More good news on the number of new cases. Due to rounding yesterday's US total number of cases per 100,000 fell to 11. Today the number is actually at 11. There are now 19 states in single digits and 9 more at 10. In other words over half the country would be off the old quarantine list today. Only 4 states are still in the 20's with Maine and Minnesota being at 20, Michigan at 26 and Colorado at 25. All other states are between 11 and 18. That is major progress, even Florida is down to 16.