Nobody was claiming the rate didn’t drop from the peak periods. The current pace is pretty stable with a small decline week over week. When we had that discussion the pace was at 1.5 to 2M so that wasn’t untrue just like nothing I posted about today’s stats is untrue. On April 28 the total adults with 1 shot was 140,792,606 so 5,542,529 for the previous 7 days (4/28 - 5/5) which is an average of 791,790 a day. That means this weeks 731,452 a day average is a decrease of 7.6% week over week. Not down 25%. Much better than that.
So assuming the same 7.6% drop each week
4.73M week ending 5/19
4.37M week ending 5/26
4.04M week ending 6/3
3.73M week ending 6/10
3.45M week ending 6/17
3.19M week ending 6/24
2.95M week ending 7/1
You keep comparing the wrong numbers -- Of course second doses aren't dropping to the same degree as first doses, because of the 3-4 week lag. 4 weeks ago, first doses were reaching their peak. So 2nd doses are at their peak down.
If you look at the drop in first doses -- Which is what we are talking about here --
The 7 day rolling average as of:
4/11: 1.9 million
4/18: 1.4 million (21% drop)
4/25: 1.1 million (21% drop)
5/1: 875,000 ((20% drop)
5/7: 715,000 (18% drop in 6 days)
So it's not quite 25%, but it is pretty consistently a 20% drop per week. If it flattens out, we are good. If it starts dropping again or continues dropping, it's going to be tough to make it. The math is pretty straightforward.
26.46M doses which gets over the 70% target. That is also assuming a constant decline in vaccination rate which is not guaranteed to be the case. It could drop further, it could drop less.
Agreed -- if it continues to drop 20% per week, we won't make it. If the decline flattens out quickly, we can make it. Again, very straightforward math.
You are assuming a steeper drop off but the drop off has actually slowed.
No, I'm only projecting based on the current trend. You are trying to distort the numbers, by using the 2nd dose numbers (which lag by 3-4 weeks) in order to understate the amount first doses are declining.
Facts are facts -- it's been about 20% per week. Hopefully it levels out.
Many areas have just started to ramp up their efforts to draw people in through outreach programs and plans are evolving. We also have the prospect soon of full FDA approval for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines so that may clear an additional hurdle for vaccine hesitancy. The JnJ vaccine coming back may have also helped. Despite some people being nervous they are still using it and it does have appeal to someone who wants the one and done.
Agreed... All that is possible.
Which is why I said -- if things level out, we will make it. If the decline of the last month continues, then we won't make it.