The fact that cases are low in places that have fully opened is good news, but I wouldn't crow about it as if opening caused a drop in cases. At least, there's no known mechanism by which that would occur. That means something else is going on that is not under our control.
What this type of pattern (or lack of a pattern) tells me is that we still don't fully understand the virus. It has surged in ways that no one predicted, including a human tragedy in India. There are reports of re-infections there but no one really knows because it's too chaotic. This is the kind of thing that gives me pause when people say, "Epidemic over. Let's go back to normal." We could all use a little humility here.
I'll be the first to admit that I err on the cautious side (I'm sure many would say overcautious side), so I'm willing to listen. But how can we have a conversation when popular pundits are saying that the vaccine has likely killed many people (they won't tell us how many they've killed!) and Americans will be forced to get a vaccine against their will, and all kinds of flat-out nonsense? I don't know how to have a rational conversation like this.
Three things. First, I have not seen anyone say that opening has
caused a drop in cases. What they have been saying is that opening has
not caused a spike. As you say, that means something else is going on, but where I believe you are wrong, is that we have a pretty good idea what thing is and it
is under our control -- vaccination. Also, naturally developed immunity due to previous exposure. Because of these two things, it's becoming increasingly clear to an objective data driven observer, that we are rapidly approaching or already have approached the point where restrictions are no longer needed to prevent a massive spread.
Second, I disagree with you on India -- it was completely predictable. The only surprising thing is why it took so long to pop. Third world countries do not have access to the vaccines yet and so the virus will continue to rage out of control until they do.
Third, I too am cautious. But at this point, everyone over 16 had ready access to the vaccine -- literally
almost any CVS takes walk-ins now. (It's unfortunate we can't vaccinate our children yet, but statistically they are at very low risk -- the flu is more dangerous to children, based on the numbers). To further control the virus we need to figure out how to encourage more people to get vaccinated. There will always be hyperbolic talking heads shilling entertainment as news. We need to tune out the noise and do whatever we can to get the vaccination number up, because all evidence suggests that the higher that goes, the more under control the virus becomes.
EDIT: It's been pointed out that not every CVS allows walk-ins, despite their company saying otherwise, so I've made a slight edit above.
