Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[hopemax]

I am hoping someone tackles this mystery at some point. I would be interesting to do a deep analysis on the course of the pandemic from state to state to try to understand why it played out the way it did.

I don't think it's a big mystery as lay people might think. We track migratory patterns of animals, we tracked migratory patterns of early humans, I would bet that COVID outbreaks track with traditional migratory patterns of the local and transient populations of modern humans. Some states, even in pandemic, have a lot of movement; others even without a pandemic not so much. Vacationers, workers who live across state lines, business travel. If people wonder why Michigan was a hot spot, I would say look at the movements between UK - Toronto - Detroit - Elsewhere in MI. If people wonder why not the South, what would be the insertion point for the virus or a variant? What would be the event, the travel destination, the business destination that would have people exposed in place A , transporting to place B? If an area doesn't get a lot of "cross-pollination" that would be protective against a virus.

Limiting movement, either by an order or voluntarily (some places, simply aren't popular destinations) is more effective than most other mitigations. Wyoming's governor has joked through this that they've been social distancing since the founding of the state (although they forgot to consider the tourists) But for a lot of places it's true. Then you're looking at family gatherings like weddings (which may be outside) or the Halloween - New Years period. Some places may not know how well things are until those big yearly activities happen. We shouldn't be expecting an outbreak in a place people rarely go or rarely leave to immediately follow a dial change because the virus can't respond to it. Maybe the next flight to rural wherever for the virus isn't until somebody's June wedding. Kinda like how Disney opened WDW in Oct and attendance was low, but despite the big change in status (closed -> open) it took the event, Thanksgiving, to trigger the human migration. If the virus isn't in a location, and there's not a lot of opportunity to move into a location, nothing is going to happen. It's what happens when someone shows up with the virus, especially if there is a reason for a lot of people to gather (work, church, event, etc), then you see the effects.

 

[havoc315]

I believe we should be using Israel as a model, based on their success.

They lifted the outdoor mask mandates when they were down to 2-3 cases per 100,000. They still have an indoor mask mandate — they are at less than 1 case per 100,000.

As I’ve said before, we shouldn’t settle for ”good enough.” As cases go down, I’m all for reducing Covid mitigation. Lift outdoor mask mandates, increase attendance capacities, reduce social distancing. Indoor masks are the final piece — which should be lifted when Covid is basically gone. Israel is now at 6 cases per million ... that seems like the time to start thinking about eliminating indoor masks.

 

[ParentsOf4]

It seems pretty simple and standard to me: your rights stop at my nose. Ergo, your "right" to not wear a mask upon entering the public square (indoors) is trumped by the rest of the folks' right to life (either directly, person to person, or societally, by spreading and lengthening the pandemic.)

Although I agree with your general premise, it’s more complicated than that.

People also have a "right" not to be controlled by the government. If you are worried about others wearing masks, they would argue, then "stay home." (I do not agree with this - I'm just stating a contrarian position.)

At some point, my "rights" impinge on yours, and at some point, your "rights" impinge on mine. The reality is that democracy is about balancing everyone's rights.

Several of us on this thread have discussed a threshold, a threshold at which the "right" to not wear a mask outweighs the "right" to reduce the spread of COVID. (Or however else you want to phrase this.)

I've suggested this threshold is at about 200 deaths per day, which would be slightly worse than the worst year of influenza deaths. Others have suggested 150 to 100 deaths per day, which would be closer to the average number of influenza deaths per year. We can do this because we are not politicians and don't have to worry about the fallout of suggesting that a certain level of death is tolerable.

I'm sure Dr. Fauci has a number of deaths in mind, even if he is unwilling to state it publicly.

Still, politicians do this all the time, even if they don't discuss it so bluntly. What's the acceptable level of death from influenza? From auto accidents? From gun violence? From smoking? Politicians have to balance various "rights" and, depending on their political persuasion, that balancing point is different.

Thus, your statement:

your "right" to not wear a mask upon entering the public square (indoors) is trumped by the rest of the folks' right to life (either directly, person to person, or societally, by spreading and lengthening the pandemic.)​

Is not absolute.

As I previously wrote, all "rights" have limits. It's a basic tenet of our democracy. "Life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness" is not absolute. Rather, it's about balancing these when they come into conflict we each other, and balancing them against the greater good. (Remember, our government recognizes instances where all rights can be forfeit.) We look to our politicians (and to the courts) to define these limits, to perform this balancing act.

If someone suggests that your statement applies until, let's say, there is less than one COVID death per day (i.e. 365 per year), then I would say they have taken an extreme position. Conversely, with over 600 COVID related deaths per day (more than 200,000 per year), I don't see a lot of people on this thread trying to defend that 200,000 deaths per year is acceptable.

Since we are just having a discussion, what is your limit? Where do you define this threshold? (And I don't mean @Tony the Tigger, I mean everyone reading this.) At what point does a person's "right" to not wear a mask supersede another person's "right" to be protected from the spread of COVID?

 

[havoc315]

I am hoping someone tackles this mystery at some point. I would be interesting to do a deep analysis on the course of the pandemic from state to state to try to understand why it played out the way it did.

Problem is, there are SO MANY FACTORS that it will never be a simple answer. Covid has proven to be seasonal, so different weather patterns in different regions likely played a role. Mitigation played a role — but not just mandated mitigation, also varying levels of voluntary mitigation. On the flip side, levels of non compliance.
Then you had migration issues, with different variants introduced to different regions at different times.
Then you had issues with testing variability. For example, NY is currently doing a lot of asymptomatic testing. Over 1% of the state is tested every day. We went to the Mets game today, my kids had to get tested. Colleges are testing weekly, lotsofother regular testing. So NY is likely picking up a LOT of asymptomatic infection while a place like Alabama is probably missing a lot of their asymptomatic and low symptom infections.
And even luck has a role. I remember the governor of South Dakota bragging about how they avoided Covid without mitigation —- until they later got hit super hard.

 

[Nubs70]

I'd like to just add to my statements... I 100% believe that people should get the vaccination shots. I, myself, have gotten both. And my fiancee.

Congrats, absolution is yours.

 

[GaBoy]

I don't think it's a big mystery as lay people might think. We track migratory patterns of animals, we tracked migratory patterns of early humans, I would bet that COVID outbreaks track with traditional migratory patterns of the local and transient populations of modern humans. Some states, even in pandemic, have a lot of movement; others even without a pandemic not so much. Vacationers, workers who live across state lines, business travel. If people wonder why Michigan was a hot spot, I would say look at the movements between UK - Toronto - Detroit - Elsewhere in MI. If people wonder why not the South, what would be the insertion point for the virus or a variant? What would be the event, the travel destination, the business destination that would have people exposed in place A , transporting to place B? If an area doesn't get a lot of "cross-pollination" that would be protective against a virus.

Limiting movement, either by an order or voluntarily (some places, simply aren't popular destinations) is more effective than most other mitigations. Wyoming's governor has joked through this that they've been social distancing since the founding of the state (although they forgot to consider the tourists) But for a lot of places it's true. Then you're looking at family gatherings like weddings (which may be outside) or the Halloween - New Years period. Some places may not know how well things are until those big yearly activities happen. We shouldn't be expecting an outbreak in a place people rarely go or rarely leave to immediately follow a dial change because the virus can't respond to it. Maybe the next flight to rural wherever for the virus isn't until somebody's June wedding. Kinda like how Disney opened WDW in Oct and attendance was low, but despite the big change in status (closed -> open) it took the event, Thanksgiving, to trigger the human migration. If the virus isn't in a location, and there's not a lot of opportunity to move into a location, nothing is going to happen. It's what happens when someone shows up with the virus, especially if there is a reason for a lot of people to gather (work, church, event, etc), then you see the effects.

Coastal GA is wide open. ST Simon's is heavy and Savannah is full of drunks. But its been that way for a while.

 

[correcaminos]

(Not to mention there are still teens who are physically the size of adults who can't get vaccinated yet. My 15-year-old is taller than me and weighs more than I do. I'm 5'5" and 110lbs.)

My 13yo is even bigger than you! I'm 5' tall so he surpassed me a while ago.

I am a bit disappointed in how slow it is going. Read Weds is the date which even if we can get it thurs we're kind of SOL since we leave for a trip 3 weeks from Thursday. Unless I can convince a pharmacy to agree to adhering to the 21 days +/- 4 and get it on day 19 (mine was day 19 as well IIRC)

 

[wdisney9000]

I am not someone who plays the "woe is me card", despite me previous post. I am just so DARN tired of the dismissiveness of people who are in a rush to drop the protective requirements, which then places me and others like me in a 2nd class category where it just seems as if we are LESS IMPORTANT than those who want to "live their lives to the fullest."

I work. I am out and about. I shop. I've traveled. I am doing my best to be cautious. But I need as many people to get vaccinated for my own personal safety.

Your post ends with you saying YOU need as many people to get vaccinated for YOUR own PERSONAL safety, but you mentioned prior that you've been out working, shopping, travelling, etc. Where was your concern for others while you were out exposing those around you? Do you deem them LESS IMPORTANT?

Even if you're vaccinated, you can still get/spread covid. Why would you be out living your life as you choose yet putting those around you in such danger?? And if a person around you (while your out shopping and travelling and doing whatever YOU want) would rather wait to get the vaccine until there is more data,
(the thing that everybody in this thread holds on the highest pedestal of truth and guidelines) , or they would rather not wear a mask everywhere they go, then they must capitulate to your needs because your (perceived) personal safety is more important than theirs? Woe is you indeed.

 

[GaBoy]

Hey to all you Mothers out there... Happy Mother's Day

 

[FormerMember]

Sorry, don’t buy this at all. See: medical professionals. See also: I have asthma.

Medical professionals never wore masks before April 2020.

 

[FormerMember]

I’m sure most of you guys didn’t see, but 75k unmasked at Cowboy stadium last night.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Your post ends with you saying YOU need as many people to get vaccinated for YOUR own PERSONAL safety, but you mentioned prior that you've been out working, shopping, travelling, etc. Where was your concern for others while you were out exposing those around you? Do you deem them LESS IMPORTANT?

Even if you're vaccinated, you can still get/spread covid. Why would you be out living your life as you choose yet putting those around you in such danger?? And if a person around you (while your out shopping and travelling and doing whatever YOU want) would rather wait to get the vaccine until there is more data,
(the thing that everybody in this thread holds on the highest pedestal of truth and guidelines) , or they would rather not wear a mask everywhere they go, then they must capitulate to your needs because your (perceived) personal safety is more important than theirs? Woe is you indeed.

People thinking their comfort trumps the safety of others is why we're where we are now.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

I was at WDW last week when the heat indexes were around 100. Wearing a mask was extremely uncomfortable in that kind of heat and humidity. People were doing the best they could, but we did notice a lot of groups sitting wherever they could find some shade passing some drinks around. As long as you were sitting and sipping a bottle of water, I think you were okay as far as the rules were concerned. Disney Springs was very crowded, and if there were CMs enforcing any rules, we sure didn't see them.

We went to use expiring DVC points and we ended up skipping MK and one of our HS days. We did spend a lot of time at Blizzard Beach and the resort pool. My advice to anyone who is uncomfortable with masks and is considering going during the summer would be to wait until WDW relaxes the mask requirement, at least outdoors.

Almost word for word what my experience was a week ago. Masks are brutal in that heat. Stay home if you have any worries.
Glad you were able to have some fun! Expiring points is not a option, I know.

 

[wdisney9000]

If someone thinks their comfort trumps the safety of people around them, then they're doing life wrong.

What are you referring to as comfort?

 

[ImperfectPixie]

What are you referring to as comfort?

or they would rather not wear a mask everywhere they go

 

[WondersOfLife]

Congrats, absolution is yours.

Thanks!

 

[lazyboy97o]

Medical professionals never wore masks before April 2020.

They did. Some hospitals and medical offices requires patients to wear them too if they were experiencing respiratory symptoms.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

They did. Some hospitals and medical offices requires patients to wear them too if they were experiencing respiratory symptoms.

Our pediatrician's office has required them for respiratory symptoms for quite a while before COVID.

 

[Angel Ariel]

That is a rather selfish point of view. At least give people who want to a chance to get fully vaccinated.

Including children, for whom vaccines aren’t an option yet.

 

[wdisney9000]

@ImperfectPixie

Is that a matter of comfort or simply a person choosing NOT to do something. There are stores that require you to wear a mask. A person who chooses not to wear a mask must shop elsewhere. I shop at locations that do not require a mask. It's not about comfort. A business has every legal right to require what they like and I respect that.

I've been to WDW several times and complied with their mask mandate. I've been in many stores that require a mask and ive complied. I prefer stores and locations that don't require a mask and ive spent money with them as well. If I prefer to visit a location that doesn't require masks, I'm not choosing comfort over somebody else's safety. I'm choosing to visit a location that DOES NOT require a mask. The people who feel more safe in a location that requires masks can can visit there. It's that simple.