Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[JD80]

Yep, that’s the trick. We are at 45%, 12-15 gets us to around 50% and then we need 33M more adults to go in to get to 60%. If pace holds and states actually try a little (some are not) then maybe we get there in early June. If the pace of adults going drops to half where it is today it may take until the end of June. The point is we shouldn’t just give up on vaccinations and accept these clickbait headlines that we have no hope. The other thing to consider is cases can and will drop off before we reach 60% vaccinated. We may be seeing the start of the drop off already in states that have crossed over 50% of the population vaccinated. So it’s not like we have to wait until June or July to see the results.

On the down side we may see great results regionally but not everywhere so there could be outbreaks and surges in cases for a while in areas where vaccination levels struggle to top 50%.

You're looking at it from a country perspective which may be too broad, but I think you need to be more regional. Certain parts of the country are going to hit those numbers faster. That may influence other parts of the country seeing places in the Northeast, for example, with low low case counts and people going back to normal a lot sooner than around where they are.

 

[GoofGoof]

See, you give us hope.

I'll wait for the dystopian future that arrives if hope doesn't win out.

Then, there's this:

The question isn't if we get one of these or not. The question is, are we doing the things to encourage getting one of these?

Which failure of hope creates the dystopian future that encourages the horror-movie like mutation creating a vaccine resistant strain causing us to start all over?

If we knew that, then we could totally make it happen. Give it that can do attitude.

To be honest though a true vaccine resistant strain would likely still be a disaster even if we get 90 or 95% of the population vaccinated. If a vaccine resistant mutation pops up anywhere in the world we are still in mortal danger no matter how many people we have vaccinated. We’ve all seen outbreak, all it takes is one guy who is stealing monkeys to get on an airplane

I don’t disagree that the more we allow the virus to spread the more we risk being the cause of a mutation instead of just a potential victim but that’s why we have to hope that the inflection point that starts to drive cases down is coming very soon and it’s thanks to the vaccines with a little help from some natural immunity.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I don't see how you can mandate that somebody take something that is still under an EUA.

I have no issue with it under current circumstances.

Not to mention the "logic" of that argument is nonsensical: "How can you force me to take a vaccine which might kill three people one day to protect me from the virus that has already killed over half a million in this country alone?"

Some crybaby protests are outweighed by the public good and health. And before anyone argues, some wanted to just let all the old people and folks with asthma and diabetes die so they could go to the gym without a mask.

Go go US citizens!

Well, the ones who got vaccinated, anyway. The rest are kind of riding coattails.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Reported COVID variant cases in Florida doubled in two weeks

Over 10,000 cases of COVID-19 “variants of concern” have been reported in Florida, state health officials disclosed Monday, more than double the total just two weeks earlier and an indi…

www.sun-sentinel.com

 

[The Mom]

And there is a school in Miami that will fire a teacher if they get vaccinated. People....

There have been a couple of posts pointing out that the FL covid bill addresses this, and it will be illegal for this school to do this.

 

[havoc315]

To be honest though a true vaccine resistant strain would likely still be a disaster even if we get 90 or 95% of the population vaccinated. If a vaccine resistant mutation pops up anywhere in the world we are still in mortal danger no matter how many people we have vaccinated. We’ve all seen outbreak, all it takes is one guy who is stealing monkeys to get on an airplane

I don’t disagree that the more we allow the virus to spread the more we risk being the cause of a mutation instead of just a potential victim but that’s why we have to hope that the inflection point that starts to drive cases down is coming very soon and it’s thanks to the vaccines with a little help from some natural immunity.

There are a lot of variables. You are more likely to see a strain for which vaccines are less effective as opposed to zero effectiveness. (Once you get to zero effectiveness, you're more likely talking about a whole new disease).
But secondly, even assuming a more resistant strain emerged, that new strain might be less transmissible or may simply be less dangerous.

Ultimately, we want to reduce the disease as much as possible, in order to reduce the risk of mutation. Because mutation introduces unknowns -- And we don't like unknowns. A mutation could make things worse, and therefore we avoid it. But the majority of mutations are more likely to have no meaningful impact, or could even make the disease less dangerous.

 

[GoofGoof]

You're looking at it from a country perspective which may be too broad, but I think you need to be more regional. Certain parts of the country are going to hit those numbers faster. That may influence other parts of the country seeing places in the Northeast, for example, with low low case counts and people going back to normal a lot sooner than around where they are.

10 states are now over 50% of their total populations with at least 1 dose. It’s basically New England, NJ, PA (NY, MD and DE are a tick under 50%), NM and HI. I agree with your point. We look at the US in total and compare to a place like Israel but really a dozen or more states are larger than Israel by themselves. I hope to see a crushing of the curve in the states where we hit 50%+. If we can quantify a US based inflection point that correlates to real, permanent cases dropping that gives the rest of the states a realistic target. Permanent is key. So many place won’t hit 70-80% vaccinated (including FL) but that doesn‘t mean they should give up. FL is at 42% with one shot, they can certainly get to 50% and maybe that’s enough to drive cases down.

 

[GoofGoof]

There have been a couple of posts pointing out that the FL covid bill addresses this, and it will be illegal for this school to do this.

Did that pass now? That’s good news. Nobody should be fired for getting a vaccine that we were all encouraged to get. If I worked there I may think about changing jobs anyway, but I shouldn’t be fired.

 

[Chi84]

10 states are now over 50% of their total populations with at least 1 dose. It’s basically New England, NJ, PA (NY, MD and DE are a tick under 50%), NM and HI. I agree with your point. We look at the US in total and compare to a place like Israel but really a dozen or more states are larger than Israel by themselves. I hope to see a crushing of the curve in the states where we hit 50%+. If we can quantify a US based inflection point that correlates to real, permanent cases dropping that gives the rest of the states a realistic target. Permanent is key. So many place won’t hit 70-80% vaccinated (including FL) but that doesn‘t mean they should give up. FL is at 42% with one shot, they can certainly get to 50% and maybe that’s enough to drive cases down.

Illinois is at 55% with those over 16 getting at least one dose. Much higher percentage with seniors.

 

[DisneyCane]

I have no issue with it under current circumstances.

Not to mention the "logic" of that argument is nonsensical: "How can you force me to take a vaccine which might kill three people one day to protect me from the virus that has already killed over half a million in this country alone?"

Some crybaby protests are outweighed by the public good and health. And before anyone argues, some wanted to just let all the old people and folks with asthma and diabetes die so they could go to the gym without a mask.

Just because you have no issue with mandating a vaccine that is not fully approved and being administered under an EUA doesn't mean it is legal to do so.

From a legal standpoint, until something is FDA approved it is still experimental/under study. Obviously it is clear that there are no safety issues due to the almost 150 million people vaccinated in the US so far but it doesn't change the legal facts.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Just because you have no issue with mandating a vaccine that is not fully approved and being administered under an EUA doesn't mean it is legal to do so.

Obviously. I also don't make policy; therefore, stating my opinion well-hidden on a Disney fan site seems to be without issue.

 

[sullyinMT]

You're looking at it from a country perspective which may be too broad, but I think you need to be more regional. Certain parts of the country are going to hit those numbers faster. That may influence other parts of the country seeing places in the Northeast, for example, with low low case counts and people going back to normal a lot sooner than around where they are.

I wish you were right. The comments on our DPHHS Facebook site say otherwise. I'm normally an optimist to a fault, but my county flatlining at barely 40% of eligible residents vaccinated while masks quickly disappear has me discouraged at best.

 

[lazyboy97o]

There have been a couple of posts pointing out that the FL covid bill addresses this, and it will be illegal for this school to do this.

That amendment was rejected.

 

[Parker in NYC]

That amendment was rejected.

But of course it was.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

That amendment was rejected.

Whaaaaaat?!

 

[havoc315]

10 states are now over 50% of their total populations with at least 1 dose. It’s basically New England, NJ, PA (NY, MD and DE are a tick under 50%), NM and HI. I agree with your point. We look at the US in total and compare to a place like Israel but really a dozen or more states are larger than Israel by themselves. I hope to see a crushing of the curve in the states where we hit 50%+. If we can quantify a US based inflection point that correlates to real, permanent cases dropping that gives the rest of the states a realistic target. Permanent is key. So many place won’t hit 70-80% vaccinated (including FL) but that doesn‘t mean they should give up. FL is at 42% with one shot, they can certainly get to 50% and maybe that’s enough to drive cases down.

There is another factor: We know that herd immunity is based on the total level of immunity, whether acquired through infection or vaccination.
Most have been calculating based on an assumption of even overlap. In other words, if 1/4th of the population has infection acquired immunity, then it is assumed that 1/4th of the un-vaccinated population also has infection acquired immunity. So if you vaccinate 50% of the population, you'd have a total immunity of 62.5%.

BUT.... Due to conflicting attitudes about Covid, the same people who aren't getting vaccinated are the same people who took the least precautions -- And are the people most likely to have infection acquired immunity.

So let's say, nationally, roughly 1/4th of Americans have naturally acquired immunity -- That number might be higher in un-vaccinated people. In some places (like the Dakotas) it might be MUCH higher than 1/4th.

There will still be overlap, but not necessarily even overlap. North Dakota had the most per capita cases reported in the country -- 14% of the population reported positive tests. Real number, likely between 25-40%.
39.5% of the population of North Dakota has been vaccinated. But it's conceivable that 30-50% (or higher) of the un-vaccinated have some infection acquired immunity. That would bring the total immunity level of 60%-70% (or higher).

So fingers crossed.... this may be the best chance of still reaching herd immunity -- the communities that aren't vaccinating enough are also the communities that were careless and have lots of naturally acquired immunity.

 

[DCBaker]

"Pfizer said Tuesday it plans to file for full U.S. approval of its Covid-19 vaccine with German drugmaker BioNTech at the end of this month. If the FDA signs off, the company will be able to market the shot directly to consumers."

"The company also said it expects to apply for an EUA for a booster shot that could protect against Covid variants during the second half of July, according to a slide presentation that accompanied the company’s earnings release. It expects to apply for authorization for its vaccine for use in toddlers and younger children in September and infants in November".

Pfizer plans to file for full FDA approval of Covid vaccine at the end of this month

In its earnings report, Pfizer reported $3.5 billion in first-quarter sales of its Covid-19 vaccine.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

If Internet click-bait were to take human form, its name tag would say: Bill Maher.

I can think of a few others in that wheelhouse too

 

[Parker in NYC]

"Pfizer said Tuesday it plans to file for full U.S. approval of its Covid-19 vaccine with German drugmaker BioNTech at the end of this month. If the FDA signs off, the company will be able to market the shot directly to consumers."

"The company also said it expects to apply for an EUA for a booster shot that could protect against Covid variants during the second half of July, according to a slide presentation that accompanied the company’s earnings release. It expects to apply for authorization for its vaccine for use in toddlers and younger children in September and infants in November".

Pfizer plans to file for full FDA approval of Covid vaccine at the end of this month

In its earnings report, Pfizer reported $3.5 billion in first-quarter sales of its Covid-19 vaccine.

www.cnbc.com

Forgive my well-demonstrated stupidity, but does this mean the vaccine would now be at a cost to the consumer?

 

[Angel Ariel]

I think if anyone challenged mandatory vaccinations on that ground, they would fail. The reason the vaccines currently do not have full FDA approval is because we don't yet have long-term efficacy data. They have already passed all of the same safety and short-term efficacy standards that are required for any vaccine.

No matter how many times you say this, I doubt it's going to change the mind of those who see emergency use authorization as equaling "we cut corners to get here." Sigh.