Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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GoofGoof

Premium Member
No need to apologize as you said for being optimistic. I think 99.9 % of the people here wherever they stand on things know we will get there and are optimistic. The differences are when people think that will happen. I’ve heard everything from June 1 to December and everything in between. That is the question right there. We know that about 35% of all Americans have had 2 shots, or the one J&J and are fully vaccinated. We know about how many have had one shot and waiting on the second. How many will get it is the big question and can put dates of normalcy all over the place if we are guessing. So let’s all stay optimistic.. keep convincing the people who don’t want to get vaccinated to do it and we will get there.
I would prefer that as a country we would have kept more restrictions around a little while longer and drove cases down even further before we hit the key inflection points where vaccinations take over and push cases down permanently but we didn’t go that way. I am still optimistic we can and will be successful anyway. I know others disagree and that’s fine too.

Staying optimistic is the only way we convince enough people to get vaccinated. The narrative that we need more restrictions or a lockdown combined with the vaccinations to achieve success only increases vaccine hesitancy and resistance. Remember that the people who favor more restrictions and lockdowns are mostly all vaccinated already. The people left unvaccinated, from listening to what a lot of them have to say, are more likely to get vaccinated if there’s a carrot of less restrictions afterward. So while I would have preferred an approach that included a slower pull back on restrictions nationally until more were vaccinated that ship has sailed and we are stuck with plan B. In this plan B, talk of more restrictions or lockdowns only hurts the vaccination effort. We need to keep people focused on the return to normal and the lifting of restrictions after enough people are vaccinated. That’s all we have. It’s vaccine or bust.
 

GimpYancIent

Well-Known Member
There appears to be this consistent linking of lifting or reducing COVID protocols to getting vaccinated. As if only vaccinated people have any degree of immunity to COVID. What about the humongous number of people that contracted COVID and have recovered (long hauler or not) its an enormous amount of people that have natural immunity with out vaccination? Walking back protocols should not be contingent solely on vaccination numbers.
 

JoeCamel

Well-Known Member
There appears to be this consistent linking of lifting or reducing COVID protocols to getting vaccinated. As if only vaccinated people have any degree of immunity to COVID. What about the humongous number of people that contracted COVID and have recovered (long hauler or not) its an enormous amount of people that have natural immunity with out vaccination? Walking back protocols should not be contingent solely on vaccination numbers.
I had covid, I was tested 5 months later and was negative for antibodies. I got vaccinated ASAP. Having it does not ensure you have long lasting immunity. And yes, I do count myself among the long haulers, I deal with the effects every day.
 

SorcererMC

Well-Known Member
There appears to be this consistent linking of lifting or reducing COVID protocols to getting vaccinated. As if only vaccinated people have any degree of immunity to COVID. What about the humongous number of people that contracted COVID and have recovered (long hauler or not) its an enormous amount of people that have natural immunity with out vaccination? Walking back protocols should not be contingent solely on vaccination numbers.
Vaccination numbers are the best indicator because reinfection is possible. The antibodies for natural immunity decline 6-8 months after infection, per NIH. So the best way to prevent a resurgence, including variant outbreak clusters, is to get as many people fully vaccinated as possible.
 

TrainsOfDisney

Well-Known Member
I wonder if they are keeping quiet about the 6 month thing so as not to discourage people from getting the vaccine?

How many people wouldn’t get it if they knew it only lasted 6 months?
 

JoeCamel

Well-Known Member
I wonder if they are keeping quiet about the 6 month thing so as not to discourage people from getting the vaccine?

How many people wouldn’t get it if they knew it only lasted 6 months?
I think you conflated covid induced immunity with vaccinated immunity. They don't know how long the vaccine gives you. If they programmed the 5G chip right it may be a very long time.
 

SorcererMC

Well-Known Member
I wonder if they are keeping quiet about the 6 month thing so as not to discourage people from getting the vaccine?

How many people wouldn’t get it if they knew it only lasted 6 months?
Natural immunity lasts longer than 6 months, and the risk of reinfection remains quite low, but it's not zero. Ultimately you want to prevent the virus from circulating. The recommendation is that people who have had it still get vaccinated.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
There appears to be this consistent linking of lifting or reducing COVID protocols to getting vaccinated. As if only vaccinated people have any degree of immunity to COVID. What about the humongous number of people that contracted COVID and have recovered (long hauler or not) its an enormous amount of people that have natural immunity with out vaccination? Walking back protocols should not be contingent solely on vaccination numbers.
It’s factored in but not exactly humongous. Known naturally infected people make up just under 10% of the population. If you want to assume that number is double due to asymptomatic people who never got tested make it 20%. Of the people naturally infected some portion will get vaccinated so you can’t just add vaccinated and naturally infected. If the vaccination rate amongst the general public ends up about 70% then I would assume the vaccination rate among covid positive people would be somewhere lower so for argument sake let’s say around 50%. That puts us back at around 10% of the population naturally infected but not vaccinated. That’s the real number you can add to number vaccinated. If we are trying to determine number of people immune then you have to factor in the percent of people who vaccinated but aren’t actually immune. Assuming a 90% effective rate on the vaccines we have to haircut the number vaccinated by 10%. So basically in my example the number naturally immune and unvaccinated is mostly offset by the number of people vaccinated but not immune. It’s probably fair to assume that the number of people “immune” is slightly higher than the number vaccinated, maybe up to 10%, but it’s not a big number. Also, when comparing to other countries they have the same with naturally immune not counted so it’s a decent apples to apples comparison.

As time goes on we have to start looking at how long natural immunity and eventually vaccinated immunity lasts. People infected in March and April 2020 are over a year since infection. We don’t have a good indicator of how long that immunity holds for yet. Hopefully greater than a year, but unknown. So the number of naturally immune but unvaccinated can shrink if it turns out the immunity fades or due to the existence of variants is less effective. Eventually the same will happen to vaccinated but the hope is community spread is crushed by then and if needed we all get a booster to keep it down.
 

Figgy1

Well-Known Member
Yahoo News

'Projecting hope': Experts suggest Biden stop wearing a mask outdoors

Alexander Nazaryan
·National Correspondent
Fri, April 30, 2021, 4:32 PM

WASHINGTON — On Friday morning, first lady Jill Biden participated in an Arbor Day event on the North Lawn of the White House, shoveling some soil on a newly planted linden tree. Such events are routine for a presidential spouse and go largely unnoticed. Indeed, there was nothing readily remarkable about Friday’s event, save for one detail: The first lady, who was vaccinated against the coronavirus months ago, wore a face mask.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, vaccinated people no longer have to wear face masks outdoors, except when in large-scale settings like concerts and political rallies. And yet both she and the president have continued to diligently mask up when outdoors, as have Vice President Kamala Harris and second gentleman Doug Emhoff. In fact, President Biden wore a face mask on Tuesday as he walked alone to the outdoor podium where he announced the new outdoor masking rules.

Biden gave a circuitous answer when he was asked by a “Today” show interviewer this week about whether he would continue to wear a mask both indoors and out. He suggested he would eventually take off his mask outside but called keeping it on a “small precaution to take,” given that people frequently approach him. Masks keep the virus from spreading. So, of course, do vaccines.

The president eventually settled on what appeared to be a defense of keeping the mask on as much as possible. “It’s a patriotic responsibility, for God’s sake,” Biden told his interviewer.

An exceedingly mundane reality could be in the works. Frequently moving between indoor and outdoor environments, as the president does throughout the day, sometimes makes it easier to keep a mask on, as opposed to having to fish it out of a pocket or handbag every few minutes. The new mask rules issued this week suggest that vaccinated people continue wearing masks indoors. Unvaccinated and half-vaccinated people are urged to continue wearing masks in most outdoor situations.

“The likelihood of my being able to be outside and people not come up to me is not very high,” Biden explained during his “Today” interview.

Still, his continuing to wear a face mask outside could lead to confusion about how to interpret the new CDC advice, which some have criticized as needlessly complex.

Conservatives have seized on the discrepancy, arguing that the White House is doing little more than putting its own pieties on display. Some public health officials have joined the criticism too, describing what they say is a missed opportunity by the Biden administration to tout the post-vaccine normal as closely resembling the pre-pandemic one.

“I understand the desire to project caution,” says Dr. Leana Wen, the former health commissioner of Baltimore, who now teaches public health policy at George Washington University. “But projecting hope is really important too, as is showing the nation the president’s confidence in the power of the vaccines.”

In an email to Yahoo News, Dr. Jayanta Bhattacharya, a professor of medicine at Stanford University, wrote that “the new CDC guidance on what situations it deems safe to wear masks for the vaccinated and non-vaccinated is really confusing. So President Biden is defaulting to the position he deems most responsible and safe, which is to wear masks more or less everywhere.”

All the versions of the coronavirus vaccine are highly effective, in particular when it comes to preventing serious and critical illness. The speed with which they were developed, tested and manufactured has been praised as a wonder of modern science.

Biden and his top staffers routinely tout the coronavirus vaccine. They often do so with mask in pocket or in hand. On Tuesday, White House press secretary Jen Psaki fielded a question about why the president had worn a mask to his announcement, when it could have arguably made more sense to model the new rules by going mask-free.

“It will take some time to adjust and adapt for all of us,” Psaki answered.

If the first lady’s tree-planting ceremony was any indication, that adjustment is still in the works. To be sure, she wasn’t alone, with several other officials watching from several feet away. Even in the highly unlikely event that those other officials were not vaccinated (most White House staffers were, like the president and first lady, vaccinated over the winter), the CDC guidance says that vaccinated people do not have to don a facial covering when gathering in small or medium-size groups of people, even if some of those people are themselves unvaccinated. That is because a vaccinated person is thought to have an extremely low risk of spreading the coronavirus.

Harris wore a mask outdoors when greeting Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker on an airport tarmac earlier this week. All three officials are vaccinated. Speaking later, Harris urged vaccinated people to act as role models to friends and family who have yet to be inoculated. But in continuing to wear a mask outdoors, she and Biden have arguably missed a chance to advertise the attractions of the vaccinated life.

“Wearing a mask was our only means of protection before we had a vaccine,” tweeted Dr. Nicole Saphier, an oncologist at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center in New York and a Fox News medical contributor, arguing that continuing to wear masks outdoors is “undermining vaccine effectiveness.”

The debate over outdoor masking comes as demand for the coronavirus vaccine appears to be dropping. Some elected leaders have offered savings bonds and other enticements to get vaccinated, but perhaps nothing is as inviting as simply being allowed to live as one did before the coronavirus ground human civilization to a halt. That is the promise of vaccines.

“We need to send the right message, and right now that message is ‘Get your vaccine, and the future is bright,’” says Dr. Marty Makary, a Johns Hopkins oncologist. In an email to Yahoo News, Makary expressed concern that “the CDC guidance is feeding into a distorted public perception of risk and causing people to question our message on vaccine protection.”

Studies have shown that it is extremely difficult for the coronavirus to spread outdoors, even in situations where no one is vaccinated. The CDC could have conceivably said that there was no need for anyone to mask outdoors, except in crowded situations.

The White House, the Office of the Vice President and the CDC all did not respond to a request for comment from Yahoo News. During a Friday briefing of the White House pandemic response team, a reporter asked that team’s coordinator, Jeff Zients, when Biden would stop wearing a mask outdoors. Zients ignored the question.

“The risk of COVID transmission, outdoors, to someone who is fully vaccinated and is keeping distance, is zero,” said Wen. “I think it would help if the president demonstrates which activities he is able to resume, and make the point every time that he is able to do them because of vaccination.”

Doing so would be in keeping with the incentive structure that CDC Director Rochelle Walensky described on Tuesday. “If you are fully vaccinated, things are much safer for you than those who are not yet fully vaccinated,” she said in announcing that the fully vaccinated did not need masks outdoors in most situations.

The Bidens’ continued caution (as well as that of the vice president and second gentleman) is a stark contrast to how the White House operated under Donald Trump. He saw masks as a sign of weakness, mocking Biden for wearing one during the campaign. Administration officials were implicitly discouraged from following advice that was frequently issued from within the White House Briefing Room by Trump’s own public health officials. Even a coronavirus outbreak within the cramped confines of the West Wing failed to change the anti-mask attitude.

Conservatives were already angry about outdoor mask mandates before Tuesday’s revision, with Fox News pundit Tucker Carlson delivering an angry diatribe against outdoor masking on Monday night. The disconnect between the new CDC guidance and the president’s continued insistence on wearing masks in most situations seemed to give his critics a new opening.

The Republican Party seized on footage of the masked Bidens walking across the South Lawn to Marine One, the presidential helicopter. “Joe and Jill Biden are FULLY vaccinated,” a tweet from a GOP-affiliated account said. “Why are they ignoring CDC guidance on wearing masks outside?”

Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, who famously punctuated his speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference in late February with a “Braveheart”-like scream of “freedom,” charged that the South Lawn video was evidence that Biden was “virtue signaling to his base” and trying to “control the American people.”

Conservatives have maintained that mask mandates are a form of social control, though such mandates have been instituted at various points throughout the pandemic by Republican elected officials, including President Trump.

More measured and evidence-based criticism like Wen’s holds that just as it was necessary for the White House to model mask wearing, it is now critical to show Americans the benefits of vaccination. She envisioned Biden “perhaps even having indoor meetings, without masks, with his fully vaccinated aides.”

That doesn’t appear likely, at least for now. Earlier this week, Psaki told NPR that top staffers in the West Wing don’t meet face to face, even though all are vaccinated.

“We all sit in our offices and do our morning and evening senior staff meetings on video,” she said. “We have to be models, too.”
Even outdoors none of those people go anywhere without security and staff. Have all of them been able to get vaccinated or just as importantly are there some among that group that can't be vaccinated. There's too many unknowns to make a blanket statement on calling them out for wearing masks no matter where not to mention state of federal mandates still in place all of this IMHO
 

mmascari

Well-Known Member
Sorry I wasn’t clear. I’m suggesting that they perhaps do know how long the vaccine gives you but they don’t want to tell you because people won’t want to get a shot that only lasts 6 months.
That’s well into conspiracy theory collaboration on keeping quiet.

And we do know that study participants here are well past 6 months and still showing plenty of antibodies.

If participants were not, of the thousands, some would have talked long ago.
 

ParentsOf4

Well-Known Member
Even outdoors none of those people go anywhere without security and staff. Have all of them been able to get vaccinated or just as importantly are there some among that group that can't be vaccinated. There's too many unknowns to make a blanket statement on calling them out for wearing masks no matter where not to mention state of federal mandates still in place all of this IMHO
Vaccines are now readily available throughout the United States. There are tens-of-thousands of open appointments going unfilled every day in every state.

Here are a couple of links to articles:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/09/health/vaccine-mississippi-demand.html

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/pharm...piling-up-across-u-s-as-some-regions-resist-1

I'm sure everyone who works in the White House is fully vaccinated at this point.
 

lazyboy97o

Well-Known Member
That seems a little out of the box to start enacting laws against it. We can't make laws against every damn fool thing people can think of to do. I know there's an attorney on this site who specializes in federal discrimination law, but I've never seen her post in one of the corona threads.
As stated, it was in response to a private school saying they would fire staff who received the vaccine. State officials have confirmed that this is legal. So the state officials have essentially confirmed that in Florida it will be illegal to discriminate against unvaccinated persons but legal to discriminate against vaccinated persons.
 

SorcererMC

Well-Known Member
Sorry I wasn’t clear. I’m suggesting that they perhaps do know how long the vaccine gives you but they don’t want to tell you because people won’t want to get a shot that only lasts 6 months.
I think if the CDC knew they would say so, because they need to set expectations for the general public that a booster might be needed. Pfizer is already working on it in case it is.
 

sullyinMT

Well-Known Member
Sorry I wasn’t clear. I’m suggesting that they perhaps do know how long the vaccine gives you but they don’t want to tell you because people won’t want to get a shot that only lasts 6 months.
That still doesn’t seem right. Researchers are looking into an annual booster, which would indicate to me that they expect some good level of protection for close to that year, +/- a few months. But definitely more than 6
 

Figgy1

Well-Known Member
Vaccines are now readily available throughout the United States. There are tens-of-thousands of open appointments going unfilled every day in every state.

I'm sure everyone who works in the White House is fully vaccinated at this point.
Yes but he met with a person who has a staff that may not be fully vaccinated yet. I don't believe any person should get called out for wearing a mask
 

mickeymiss

Well-Known Member
Seriously? So if there is a 20 minute wait for test track and someone figures out they can go in through the exit and skip the standby line you would be OK with that as long as the people wore a mask and held the door for each other? There was a line of people following the rules and waiting to be let into the store at the entrance and these people didn’t feel like waiting so they went in through the exit.
I don't know from that 5 second video if these people all knew about the standby line. There had to be a few that didn't. I don't think ride lines compare to store lines either especially since stores don't usually have outdoor lines. I like to occasionally give humanity the benefit of the doubt. People should follow the rules and Disney should enforce them if it's important to them. I agree that it would be frustrating for people waiting in line. I just don't think this was malicious or newsworthy. That's my own opinion. I rarely align with any one side of anything all the time which is why I don't participate in this forum much 😉 I wanted to share that perspective even though I knew it would get a reaction like yours. We will one day go back to normal and it's going to be a very interesting adjustment socially.
 

ImperfectPixie

Well-Known Member
I don't know from that 5 second video if these people all knew about the standby line. There had to be a few that didn't. I don't think ride lines compare to store lines either especially since stores don't usually have lines. I like to occasionally give humanity the benefit of the doubt. People should follow the rules and Disney should enforce them if it's important to them. I agree that it would be frustrating for people waiting in line. I just don't think this was malicious or newsworthy. That's my own opinion. I rarely align with any one side of anything all the time which is why I don't participate in this forum much 😉 I wanted to share that perspective even though I knew it would get a reaction like yours. We will one day go back to normal and it's going to be a very interesting adjustment socially.
It doesn't matter if they knew there was a line or not. The sign on the door says exit only, and over a year into the pandemic, those signs are something we're all used to seeing at this point so that stores can control guest flow and capacity.

There's no excuse that makes what those people did okay.
 

Figgy1

Well-Known Member
I don't know from that 5 second video if these people all knew about the standby line. There had to be a few that didn't. I don't think ride lines compare to store lines either especially since stores don't usually have lines. I like to occasionally give humanity the benefit of the doubt. People should follow the rules and Disney should enforce them if it's important to them. I agree that it would be frustrating for people waiting in line. I just don't think this was malicious or newsworthy. That's my own opinion. I rarely align with any one side of anything all the time which is why I don't participate in this forum much 😉 I wanted to share that perspective even though I knew it would get a reaction like yours. We will one day go back to normal and it's going to be a very interesting adjustment socially.
WOD has had signs since reopening. If they are local they'd know that and if not local did they not plan for their trip.
 
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