Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[mmascari]

Read up on the Patina jobfair -- They find they have to offer $300-$500 sign-on bonuses to find labor. Some people are quite happy on unemployment until September, as they can make up to about $14 per hour on unemployment.

It's actually a very severe restaurant labor shortage:

That's a funding shortage, not a labor one on it's own.

For the most part, these aren't entry level career jobs where someone is willing to take a lower salary because 3 years from now as they move up the career chain there's a larger payoff. I mean, sure there's some who will start off serving or cooking and move up to managing then on to managing multiple locations, but that's not the career path someone is expecting for these jobs.

So, if there's no long term play, and getting a job in 3 months when unemployment runs out is the same as today, then sure, it's in the person's best interest to stay on unemployment. Anything else wouldn't make any sense. But, that's not the point either, enhanced unemployment doesn't last forever, it's a short term blip in the labor market.

Right now, a restaurant saying "there's a labor shortage" doesn't mean there's nobody out there looking for work, that the workforce is close enough to full employment that they cannot find anyone. They've left off an important part, "there's a labor shortage at the price we're willing to pay". That's a much better perspective. Maybe they really are trying to pay to low. Maybe the hassle of working for them isn't worth dealing with for that low. It's a whole package after all, not just pay but type of work, environment, benefits, advancement opportunities, the whole package. Have a better package, get better workers. Or, in this case it sounds like "get any workers".

If the business plan depends on exploiting workers for very low wages (like all the X$ + tipping to make up the difference), it's probably already not in good shape. Make a better plan.

I probably couldn't get anyone here to come dig a ditch for $5/hour, and I really need a ditch to help with runoff. But for $50/hour, I bet a few would take me up. This is not an offer of for employment. I need the ditch, but don't have (or want to pay) the $50/hour.

 

[DisneyFan32]

I bet indoor masks will be last to be gone for good by late summer or fall.

 

[Nubs70]

I'm a CPA, I understand how financial statements work. I appreciate what you're saying, but owners have no incentive to incur an unnecessary expense, just because they can save a small percentage in taxes. If you want to argue that businesses have a social responsibility to pay a certain wage, that's another topic for another day. I too believe that the minimum wage needs to be addressed but a lot of the approaches I see need to be refined a bit to take into consideration regional economics.

Reminds me of my wife at Kohls. "1 saved $15!!!". Yes, but you spent $50 for something we really don't need.

 

[jmp85]

The owners also get to write off business expenses - including those related to labor.

We've got to stop feeling bad about the possibility that a CEO may make $50 million instead of $100 million and thinking that stock-holders are entitled to force a company to squeeze every drop of profit out of a business regardless the human cost.

Hey, I'm right there with you on CEO compensation. I don't have a solution other than stockholders voicing their opinion. It'll be hard to justify government intervention in most cases.

 

[ToTBellHop]

That's not what it says.

"Ships can bypass the required simulated test voyages carrying volunteers and jump to sailings with paying passengers if 98% of crew and 95% of passengers are fully vaccinated."

There's no requirement to hit 95% if they do those test voyages first.

You’re right. So what this really does is allow a company like Celebrity (no issue excluding kids) sail in July while the family lines must do test sailings and wait a bit longer.

 

[jmp85]

Reminds me of my wife at Kohls. "1 saved $15!!!". Yes, but you spent $50 for something we really don't need.

My dad many years ago all the time at Best Buy: "Hey, I want this $500 laptop, but if I spend $2,000, I can pay 24 months no interest. Can you help me find some more stuff?" My dad is well off and didn't need credit, he just wanted what he perceived to be a "deal."

 

[havoc315]

Right now, a restaurant saying "there's a labor shortage" doesn't mean there's nobody out there looking for work, that the workforce is close enough to full employment that they cannot find anyone. They've left off an important part, "there's a labor shortage at the price we're willing to pay".

I'm not trying to get into the public policy aspect. Merely pointing out that restaurants in the Orlando area aren't able to fully staff up.
Which may reduce Disney's ability to bring back full capacity dining, they might just not have the staff for it.

I'm not trying to get into a public policy debate about whether Disney should pay busboys $25 per hour so they will forgo the $14 per hour in unemployment.
I suspect many restaurants are just going to try to survive on lower staff until September, when enhanced unemployment expires.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

You’re right. So what this really does is allow a company like Celebrity (no issue excluding kids) sail in July while the family lines must do test sailings and wait a bit longer.

Even then I think both are going to be in masks-and-distancing mode, which strikes me as just a miserable guest experience.

 

[mmascari]

That doesn't happen. Magic Kingdom hits capacity roughly 6 days per year. Hollywood Studios and Animal Kingdom have each hit capacity two times in ten years. Epcot has never.

In the before times. But, has it been happening now with reduced capacity?

We see stories all the time about park passes being "sold out" for different future days. A year from now, when mine are, you're probably right and it doesn't matter. Let's hope you're right, if we're still doing restricted capacity in a year, we've got other issues.

Have we had any days arrive where there's no passes available? Or, are they adding enough days at the last minute that it doesn't happen even if there were none ahead of time?

Once it's no longer a concern, I agree that people may not make them. But, damn, the web page puts the fear into people with it's "a ticket is not a guarantee you must have a park pass" warnings.

 

[havoc315]

You’re right. So what this really does is allow a company like Celebrity (no issue excluding kids) sail in July while the family lines must do test sailings and wait a bit longer.

Not really. Celebrity and anyone else would need to verify vaccination status. So they would still have to do test sailings if they don't want to verify vaccination status.

The "family" lines could also start sailing immediately, just limiting the number of kids, but not eliminating them. Assuming a likelihood that the vaccination program will be expanded to 12-15 by summer, basically it would just become: No more than 5% of guests can be under 12.
I have no idea what percentage of guests are typically under 12... it might already fall within that 5% number.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Not really. Celebrity and anyone else would need to verify vaccination status. So they would still have to do test sailings if they don't want to verify vaccination status.

The "family" lines could also start sailing immediately, just limiting the number of kids, but not eliminating them. Assuming a likelihood that the vaccination program will be expanded to 12-15 by summer, basically it would just become: No more than 5% of guests can be under 12.
I have no idea what percentage of guests are typically under 12... it might already fall within that 5% number.

Much higher than that on Disney, especially in the summer.

 

[hopemax]

So, would you pay $10 for a McDonald's Burger, $6 for the fries, and $3 for the soda.... making your "Extra Value Meal" $15-$20?

Of course, we all want all workers to be paid more. As long as we don't have to be paying the price. As long as it's just coming out of Jeff Bezo's savings account, we want the workers to be paid more. But when it actually translates to higher costs for consumers......

This wouldn't happen. The McDonald's CEO is on the record that they don't care about $15 minimum wage. It would raise the price of a Big Mac by 1.4% and that won't disrupt customers to the point they leave. One article I read mentioned that the food industry, during pandemic has seen that customers are willing to pay more for convenience than what they would need to raise their prices to cover labor increases. Everyday, the industry is less fearful of increased labor costs. It's the average person making assumptions about $10 burgers at McDonalds that's becoming the bigger roadblock. Ideological bickering, while the industry has already accepted that it will come.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

In the before times. But, has it been happening now with reduced capacity?

We see stories all the time about park passes being "sold out" for different future days. A year from now, when mine are, you're probably right and it doesn't matter. Let's hope you're right, if we're still doing restricted capacity in a year, we've got other issues.

Have we had any days arrive where there's no passes available? Or, are they adding enough days at the last minute that it doesn't happen even if there were none ahead of time?

Once it's no longer a concern, I agree that people may not make them. But, damn, the web page puts the fear into people with it's "a ticket is not a guarantee you must have a park pass" warnings.

Right right, everything I've been saying has been in the "post-covid, back to normal" context. My main point is that I don't see any value for Disney in a post-COVID park pass. There's no incentive for guests to pre-book once the threat of parks being sold out is no longer an issue.

 

[Patcheslee]

Appointments are still filling here so it would be a cluster with people just showing up

Would a combination of both could work well. Appointments for X number of hours, then walk in for X number of hours. If people don't show for appointments, they will already have the standby there.

Didn't realize this board had so many millionaires and billionaires actively posting.

If I was I'd be posting from my DVC room using some of my 50,000 points

 

[havoc315]

Much higher than that on Disney, especially in the summer.

I've done Disney summer cruises, but I wouldn't really be able to estimate the number of young kids. I still imagine it's not much higher than 10-15% of total guests. (As an example of our last Disney cruise... 2 "grandparents", 2 parents, 2 kids (14 and 11 at the time)... so 1 out of 6 in our party was under 12. Or 17%.
I have no idea how representative this is of the entire typical cruise manifest. I suspect the cruise lines could simply limit the number of cabins open to those with younger kids.

 

[havoc315]

This wouldn't happen. The McDonald's CEO is on the record that they don't care about $15 minimum wage. It would raise the price of a Big Mac by 1.4% and that won't disrupt customers to the point they leave. One article I read mentioned that the food industry, during pandemic has seen that customers are willing to pay more for convenience than what they would need to raise their prices to cover labor increases. Everyday, the industry is less fearful of increased labor costs. It's the average person making assumptions about $10 burgers at McDonalds that's becoming the bigger roadblock. Ideological bickering, while the industry has already accepted that it will come.

Wasn't talking about a $15 wage, that's already dictated in many places. I'm talking about if you paid every fastfood worker a $50,000 salary with full health insurance coverage, etc, etc.
Right now, many unemployed workers are getting $15 per hour in unemployment... so you would need to offer wages much higher than $15. (I'm not calling anyone lazy. If the choices were $15 without working, or $16 to work full time, choosing to stick to unemployment is rather rational).

 

[Nubs70]

I'm not trying to get into the public policy aspect. Merely pointing out that restaurants in the Orlando area aren't able to fully staff up.
Which may reduce Disney's ability to bring back full capacity dining, they might just not have the staff for it.

I'm not trying to get into a public policy debate about whether Disney should pay busboys $25 per hour so they will forgo the $14 per hour in unemployment.
I suspect many restaurants are just going to try to survive on lower staff until September, when enhanced unemployment expires.

This is the critical point along with mortgage/rent forbearance.

Currently, The US is guaranteeing housing and subsidizing discretionary income. This is currently satisfying the needs of many people. Once enhanced UI and Stimmy checks go away, the unemployed will need to find an income source to satisfy their discretionary needs.

The big pickle is going to be when forbearance ends. Remember forbearance is not forgiveness. When forbearance ends, people will be presented a bill for back payments. For example, $1000/mo rent/mortgage for 12 months, this individual will needs to come up with $12,000 in short order. This is going to result in a tidal wave of bankruptcies. One may say, "The landlord can just write this off". Yes he can, if he has a court judgement.

I'm going to have to look back at 2008-9 and put a little money in some bank short positions.

 

[Touchdown]

Wasn't talking about a $15 wage, that's already dictated in many places. I'm talking about if you paid every fastfood worker a $50,000 salary with full health insurance coverage, etc, etc.
Right now, many unemployed workers are getting $15 per hour in unemployment... so you would need to offer wages much higher than $15. (I'm not calling anyone lazy. If the choices were $15 without working, or $16 to work full time, choosing to stick to unemployment is rather rational).

Where are you getting 50k? That’s the median income for a solo earner in this country, there is no way unemployment is paying you median income.

 

[Flugell]

That is not correct.

They stayed longer, but their per cap guest spending was lower. Disney would MUCH rather have two families from Ohio spending 7 nights each than a single family from the UK spending 14 nights.

Sorry, the article I used from the Orlando Sentinel has disappeared behind a firewall so can’t share it with you. However, personally, we stay in Florida for 6 weeks at a time and 3 of these weeks are at a Disney resort. My bank balance bears witness to the amount we spend when there! I think because it is an extravagant trip we spend much more than most Americans purchasing many souvenirs and presents. We always buy an extra suitcase and pay for extra baggage on return to allow us to spend, spend, spend!!
However the fact that approximately 20% of visitors are international still prevents WDW from returning to normal, unless they can increase the number of visitors from within the USA. Basically we can’t wait to be allowed back (safely) and that impacts my opinion on just about everything!!

 

[Nubs70]

This wouldn't happen. The McDonald's CEO is on the record that they don't care about $15 minimum wage. It would raise the price of a Big Mac by 1.4% and that won't disrupt customers to the point they leave. One article I read mentioned that the food industry, during pandemic has seen that customers are willing to pay more for convenience than what they would need to raise their prices to cover labor increases. Everyday, the industry is less fearful of increased labor costs. It's the average person making assumptions about $10 burgers at McDonalds that's becoming the bigger roadblock. Ideological bickering, while the industry has already accepted that it will come.

During the pandemic, it was the only thing open.