I think by late summer or early fall we will see CDC release recommendations that continue to drop masks if the numbers continue in the direction they're heading. If we start seeing those numbers that I listed then businesses in many of the states that don't have mask mandates will start to unwind their policies as well (and some obviously have).
In terms of theme parks, I think TWDC will be a bit more cautious, but by EOY they will drop masks if things continue in the right direction (though the international aspect could throw a wrench in that thought).
The international travel and trade I don't think will have any impact on when we go back to normal by way of limited indoor gatherings, mask mandates, etc. You mention supply line challenges, but that's not going to dictate other things that we've mentioned ('You can't get your PS5, so you have to still wear a mask!')
I think offices will continue to be remote or hybrid regardless. It's the new reality for many companies that workers no longer need to be in the office and for many of those workers they're enjoying the freedom of their new hours, saved commute, and ability to do laundry while sitting on a conference call.
Remove COVID and vaccines... and it still wouldn't be all sunshine and rainbows. That's why I don't watch the news