Another 3M+ doses for yesterday so we had roughly 10M doses administered in the last 3 days showing the weekend demand is still pretty high. Roughly 50/50 split of first dose vs second which should continue for a while. In the last week we averaged about 1.3M new first doses a day. At that pace we would have another 50M first shots by the end of May and it would get us to 58% of the population with at least one dose by then. Once 12-15 is approved that also adds more teens to the mix who will help keep the demand high. We would be at around 68% of the eligible people 12+ with one shot by the end of May. I think that’s a reasonable target to be at 68% of eligible people and 58% of the total population woth at least 1 shot.
I am optimistic if we get to that ballpark of vaccinations it results in significant reductions in cases as well. I’m sure this statement will be challenged by the doom and gloom crowd, but Israel is at 59% of their total population with 1 shot and they have been holding steady under 2 cases per 100,000 since they reached around 57% of the population wIth 1 shot. We can be in that ballpark by the end of May still. It’s not a perfect proxy for the US and there are differences in mitigations and population demographics but it gives us a best case scenario for where we can get to in as little as 5 weeks if people continue to get vaccinated.