Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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GoofGoof

Premium Member
Anyone know of state prisons vaccinating prisoners yet? Indiana still hasn't started, that accounts for about 30k adults eligible, or .5%
In PA they started prisoners the first week of April. They were supposed to be using the 1 shot JnJ vaccine in all prisons for speed and efficiency in vaccinating. I’m not sure if they were done before the pause, probably not. I haven’t heard if they picked up with a different vaccine or are going to go back to JnJ now that it’s started up again.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
I think we need to factor in the millions who have recovered from COVID. There is little to no reinfections happening at this point. So, the antibodies are working as good as the vaccine at least at this point.
Yes, it is factored in when reaching herd immunity. Right now about 10% of the population has tested positive for Covid. Who knows how many more had it and were never tested. Somewhere between 10 and 20% or more of the population has some natural immunity. The offset to that is some of the people naturally infected also got the vaccine so they would be double counted if we just take percent vaccinated plus percent of all people naturally infected. The final issue is 100% of those vaccinated aren’t immune so there are some people walking around that are fully vaccinated but still not immune. It’s hard to quantify the numbers but a decent short cut IMHO is to assume the vaccine/infected overlap plus the vaccinated people where the vaccine didn’t take is about equal to the number of people naturally infected but not tested. If you buy that assumption than you can essentially take the 10% who tested positive and add that to the percent of people vaccinated. So in other words if we get to 70% vaccinated the number “immune“ is probably more like 80% and that number will grow as more of the resistors get naturally infected.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
The state of Ohio just reported 873 cases for the entire state. Hoping it's a trend.
US National 7 day daily average is down to 18 cases per 100,000. Hopefully the start of the downward trend all over. Relaxing of covid restrictions so far seems to be more than offset by increased vaccinations and cases are still trending down.
 

DCBaker

Premium Member
Numbers are out - there were 36 new reported deaths, along with 1 Non-Florida Resident death.

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GoofGoof

Premium Member
Numbers are out - there were 36 new reported deaths, along with 1 Non-Florida Resident death.

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FL needs to get below 2,150 cases a day to be below 10 cases per 100,000 people. I think that’s the starting point to start seriously thinking about relaxing things at WDW. Not full removal of restrictions, but the start of more relaxing. It can’t be seriously considered yet at a 7 day average of almost 6,000 cases a day.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
I'm 2 weeks out of my second dose. Who wants to shame me for socializing indoors without a mask this weekend?
Doesn't the CDC say you can socialize indoors without a mask with whoever you want as long as the other people are vaccinated too or if you are with only one other family group people can even be unvaccinated as long as they are not in the high risk group?
 

CatesMom

Well-Known Member
Doesn't the CDC say you can socialize indoors without a mask with whoever you want as long as the other people are vaccinated too or if you are with only one other family group people can even be unvaccinated as long as they are not in the high risk group?
Yes, in small group settings. If more than one participating household is unvaccinated, masks for everyone.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Another 3M+ doses for yesterday so we had roughly 10M doses administered in the last 3 days showing the weekend demand is still pretty high. Roughly 50/50 split of first dose vs second which should continue for a while. In the last week we averaged about 1.3M new first doses a day. At that pace we would have another 50M first shots by the end of May and it would get us to 58% of the population with at least one dose by then. Once 12-15 is approved that also adds more teens to the mix who will help keep the demand high. We would be at around 68% of the eligible people 12+ with one shot by the end of May. I think that’s a reasonable target to be at 68% of eligible people and 58% of the total population woth at least 1 shot.

I am optimistic if we get to that ballpark of vaccinations it results in significant reductions in cases as well. I’m sure this statement will be challenged by the doom and gloom crowd, but Israel is at 59% of their total population with 1 shot and they have been holding steady under 2 cases per 100,000 since they reached around 57% of the population wIth 1 shot. We can be in that ballpark by the end of May still. It’s not a perfect proxy for the US and there are differences in mitigations and population demographics but it gives us a best case scenario for where we can get to in as little as 5 weeks if people continue to get vaccinated.
 

danlb_2000

Premium Member
Another 3M+ doses for yesterday so we had roughly 10M doses administered in the last 3 days showing the weekend demand is still pretty high. Roughly 50/50 split of first dose vs second which should continue for a while. In the last week we averaged about 1.3M new first doses a day. At that pace we would have another 50M first shots by the end of May and it would get us to 58% of the population with at least one dose by then. Once 12-15 is approved that also adds more teens to the mix who will help keep the demand high. We would be at around 68% of the eligible people 12+ with one shot by the end of May. I think that’s a reasonable target to be at 68% of eligible people and 58% of the total population woth at least 1 shot.

I am optimistic if we get to that ballpark of vaccinations it results in significant reductions in cases as well. I’m sure this statement will be challenged by the doom and gloom crowd, but Israel is at 59% of their total population with 1 shot and they have been holding steady under 2 cases per 100,000 since they reached around 57% of the population wIth 1 shot. We can be in that ballpark by the end of May still. It’s not a perfect proxy for the US and there are differences in mitigations and population demographics but it gives us a best case scenario for where we can get to in as little as 5 weeks if people continue to get vaccinated.

I would be interested in see the statistics on how many people haven't gotten the second dose when scheduled. I assume (hope) the number is small.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
I would be interested in see the statistics on how many people haven't gotten the second dose when scheduled. I assume (hope) the number is small.
I haven’t seen that anywhere. I assume once people go in they will return for shot 2. I imagine if someone had a particularly bad reaction to shot 1 they might not go back.
 

ImperfectPixie

Well-Known Member
I would be interested in see the statistics on how many people haven't gotten the second dose when scheduled. I assume (hope) the number is small.

I haven’t seen that anywhere. I assume once people go in they will return for shot 2. I imagine if someone had a particularly bad reaction to shot 1 they might not go back.
I haven't been actively looking, but I did see this...

 
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