-
Welcome to the WDWMAGIC.COM Forums!
Please take a look around, and feel free to sign up and join the community.
Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
- Start date
-
- Tags
- coronavirus covid covid-19
- Status
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Yes, it is factored in when reaching herd immunity. Right now about 10% of the population has tested positive for Covid. Who knows how many more had it and were never tested. Somewhere between 10 and 20% or more of the population has some natural immunity. The offset to that is some of the people naturally infected also got the vaccine so they would be double counted if we just take percent vaccinated plus percent of all people naturally infected. The final issue is 100% of those vaccinated aren’t immune so there are some people walking around that are fully vaccinated but still not immune. It’s hard to quantify the numbers but a decent short cut IMHO is to assume the vaccine/infected overlap plus the vaccinated people where the vaccine didn’t take is about equal to the number of people naturally infected but not tested. If you buy that assumption than you can essentially take the 10% who tested positive and add that to the percent of people vaccinated. So in other words if we get to 70% vaccinated the number “immune“ is probably more like 80% and that number will grow as more of the resistors get naturally infected.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
US National 7 day daily average is down to 18 cases per 100,000. Hopefully the start of the downward trend all over. Relaxing of covid restrictions so far seems to be more than offset by increased vaccinations and cases are still trending down.
Tony Perkis
Well-Known Member
Were you being disrespectful to others indoors who were wearing a mask even though you still pose a risk of spreading the virus to others? If so, I don’t mind shaming you for that.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
FL needs to get below 2,150 cases a day to be below 10 cases per 100,000 people. I think that’s the starting point to start seriously thinking about relaxing things at WDW. Not full removal of restrictions, but the start of more relaxing. It can’t be seriously considered yet at a 7 day average of almost 6,000 cases a day.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Doesn't the CDC say you can socialize indoors without a mask with whoever you want as long as the other people are vaccinated too or if you are with only one other family group people can even be unvaccinated as long as they are not in the high risk group?
Yes, in small group settings. If more than one participating household is unvaccinated, masks for everyone.
Animaniac93-98
Well-Known Member
Today Canada will hit 29% with at least 1 vaccine dose. That's total population, including children under 18.
It was 5 days ago when I said it was 25%.
At the rate the country is going, I expect 50% or more with their first dose by June 1.
It was 5 days ago when I said it was 25%.
At the rate the country is going, I expect 50% or more with their first dose by June 1.
JoeCamel
Well-Known Member
~1% a day is not bad, the dam will break soon
Animaniac93-98
Well-Known Member
It took about 4 months to hit 20% after Pfizer was first approved in December. It was a ROUGH 4 months.
But since then things have picked up quite a bit. Feeling more optimistic despite the current situation in Ontario, Nova Scotia and other parts of the country.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Another 3M+ doses for yesterday so we had roughly 10M doses administered in the last 3 days showing the weekend demand is still pretty high. Roughly 50/50 split of first dose vs second which should continue for a while. In the last week we averaged about 1.3M new first doses a day. At that pace we would have another 50M first shots by the end of May and it would get us to 58% of the population with at least one dose by then. Once 12-15 is approved that also adds more teens to the mix who will help keep the demand high. We would be at around 68% of the eligible people 12+ with one shot by the end of May. I think that’s a reasonable target to be at 68% of eligible people and 58% of the total population woth at least 1 shot.
I am optimistic if we get to that ballpark of vaccinations it results in significant reductions in cases as well. I’m sure this statement will be challenged by the doom and gloom crowd, but Israel is at 59% of their total population with 1 shot and they have been holding steady under 2 cases per 100,000 since they reached around 57% of the population wIth 1 shot. We can be in that ballpark by the end of May still. It’s not a perfect proxy for the US and there are differences in mitigations and population demographics but it gives us a best case scenario for where we can get to in as little as 5 weeks if people continue to get vaccinated.
I am optimistic if we get to that ballpark of vaccinations it results in significant reductions in cases as well. I’m sure this statement will be challenged by the doom and gloom crowd, but Israel is at 59% of their total population with 1 shot and they have been holding steady under 2 cases per 100,000 since they reached around 57% of the population wIth 1 shot. We can be in that ballpark by the end of May still. It’s not a perfect proxy for the US and there are differences in mitigations and population demographics but it gives us a best case scenario for where we can get to in as little as 5 weeks if people continue to get vaccinated.
danlb_2000
Premium Member
I would be interested in see the statistics on how many people haven't gotten the second dose when scheduled. I assume (hope) the number is small.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
I haven’t seen that anywhere. I assume once people go in they will return for shot 2. I imagine if someone had a particularly bad reaction to shot 1 they might not go back.
ImperfectPixie
Well-Known Member
I haven't been actively looking, but I did see this...
danlb_2000
Premium Member
First hospital system to require covid vaccinations for all staff...
thehill.com
Texas hospital system first to require all employees get COVID-19 vaccine
A Texas hospital system is the first in the nation to issue a COVID-19 vaccine mandate for staff.Houston Methodist hospital system, which includes a medical center and six community hospitals, has …
thehill.com
Chi84
Premium Member
Millions Appear to Be Skipping Second COVID-19 Vaccine Shot in the U.S.
Almost 8 percent of those who got a Pfizer or Moderna shot in the United States have not gone in for their second dose.
- Status