Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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correcaminos

Well-Known Member
Maybe the more densely populated areas should be given preference then, or something like that. At least, apart from those in higher age brackets and pre-existing, etc. (should come up with an acronym for that). At least for starters. I don't know, maybe that's already happening - but I doubt it.
Nah, we're just going to the nearby rural areas that aren't taking the appointments. I don't think it is really happening here given many people are driving out of city areas to get shots.

Yes. Especially when those two particular states in reference to Ohio are so - though heavens to Betsy I'll keep it out of this thread lest I risk saying too much.
Honestly not sure what you are getting at. Though I live in the bubble of the central part of Ohio. We aren't much like the rest of the state LOL
 

DisneyFan32

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
Yes
The logistics of getting 55% of the population vaccinated are much easier when you are only worried about 9M people. Israel has administered 10M doses all time. We have done that many shots in the last 3 days. In terms of spread and immunity things like population density and demographics are more important than raw size. A percent is a percent. Israel is not a perfect comparison to the US but it gives you an idea of ballpark you need to hit to see an impact.
Then masks and social distancing will go away sooner? @GoofGoof
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Maybe the more densely populated areas should be given preference then, or something like that. At least, apart from those in higher age brackets and pre-existing, etc. (should come up with an acronym for that). At least for starters. I don't know, maybe that's already happening - but I doubt it.
Soon. Both nationally and at the state level there will need to be a change to distribution of doses from being straight based on population to based on demand. No point sending thousands or millions of doses to places to sit on a shelf when people in other areas still can’t get appointments.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Then masks and social distancing will go away sooner? @GoofGoof
Vaccines still going strong. 4M more doses today. Once everyone who wants a vaccine has had one and we are beyond the 2 week additional wait time we should then see a serious discussion on dialing back whatever restrictions are left. No way to know for sure when. All we can do is keep getting vaccines now and follow mitigations until they are dialed back.
 

correcaminos

Well-Known Member
Meanwhile Franklin county went back to level 4.
I'm in Franklin County. You know what changed? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. Any minor steady increase with this system will put a county back in purple in a wink of an eye. Since we are the most densely populated and most populated county, what did people expect with a month of spring breaks? I'm sorry I'm not all worked up over it, but this system is now sorely outdated. We're nowhere near where we were when we were purple last time, nor are we really any worse than some times we were in red or orange. Much ado about nothing tbh. The system measures increases, and duh, we knew we'd increase. Sorry, but definitely not caring about level 4 - and if people know me from this I was more negative about cases and such most of the time. My feelings are adjusting for the times. Even our schools will remain in 5 days and the county health is not saying to do anything different other than vaccinate. Huge difference from fall/winter.
 

disneygeek90

Well-Known Member
I'm in Franklin County. You know what changed? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. Any minor steady increase with this system will put a county back in purple in a wink of an eye. Since we are the most densely populated and most populated county, what did people expect with a month of spring breaks? I'm sorry I'm not all worked up over it, but this system is now sorely outdated. We're nowhere near where we were when we were purple last time, nor are we really any worse than some times we were in red or orange. Much ado about nothing tbh. The system measures increases, and duh, we knew we'd increase. Sorry, but definitely not caring about level 4 - and if people know me from this I was more negative about cases and such most of the time. My feelings are adjusting for the times. Even our schools will remain in 5 days and the county health is not saying to do anything different other than vaccinate. Huge difference from fall/winter.
I believe it's the level of hospital bed availability that put them back. I grew up in Franklin County, so my friend mentioned it earlier in a group text.

It's nothing to panic over, I was just saying pointing out that 6 cases in one county doesn't mean Ohio is suddenly in the clear.
 

sullyinMT

Well-Known Member
I'm in Franklin County. You know what changed? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. Any minor steady increase with this system will put a county back in purple in a wink of an eye. Since we are the most densely populated and most populated county, what did people expect with a month of spring breaks? I'm sorry I'm not all worked up over it, but this system is now sorely outdated. We're nowhere near where we were when we were purple last time, nor are we really any worse than some times we were in red or orange. Much ado about nothing tbh. The system measures increases, and duh, we knew we'd increase. Sorry, but definitely not caring about level 4 - and if people know me from this I was more negative about cases and such most of the time. My feelings are adjusting for the times. Even our schools will remain in 5 days and the county health is not saying to do anything different other than vaccinate. Huge difference from fall/winter.
The attitude you describe is taking hold from a policy standpoint, proving that even our policy makers aren’t in it for eradication. Case in point: fans at the Staples Center for a Lakers game. They were the “anti-Florida” for a really long time, and now are moving forward. To be fair, LA County allowed fans in attendance with a vaccine/negative test verification. Maybe it should be that way for gatherings indoors; time will soon tell.

“Listen to the science” clearly means listen to medical, economic, and political sciences and make a policy decision. I’m honestly ok with that, so long as people have a real option to vaccinate. More and more, they do, and it’s only getting better. So let’s all hang on to the mask a little longer and enjoy the summer. It’s coming (insert GoT meme here).
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
The attitude you describe is taking hold from a policy standpoint, proving that even our policy makers aren’t in it for eradication. Case in point: fans at the Staples Center for a Lakers game. They were the “anti-Florida” for a really long time, and now are moving forward. To be fair, LA County allowed fans in attendance with a vaccine/negative test verification. Maybe it should be that way for gatherings indoors; time will soon tell.

“Listen to the science” clearly means listen to medical, economic, and political sciences and make a policy decision. I’m honestly ok with that, so long as people have a real option to vaccinate. More and more, they do, and it’s only getting better. So let’s all hang on to the mask a little longer and enjoy the summer. It’s coming (insert GoT meme here).
Agreed. I have been firmly behind masks and distancing and capacity limits and other restrictions all along. Before we had vaccines it was not appropriate for someone who didn’t believe in Covid to refuse to wear a mask or follow the rules and then get on a bus and spew Covid all over the driver and then go to a grocery store or restaurant and infect a worker and then show up at work at the nursing home and infect an elderly patient. Those infections also spread exponentially and threatened our hospital capacity and threatened additional death. Now that we have vaccines the most vulnerable are protected and the rest of us can be too pretty soon. So while restrictions are still needed now for sure we should be thinking about the timing of unwinding them as we approach a larger share vaccinated.
 

sullyinMT

Well-Known Member
Maybe the more densely populated areas should be given preference then, or something like that. At least, apart from those in higher age brackets and pre-existing, etc. (should come up with an acronym for that). At least for starters. I don't know, maybe that's already happening - but I doubt it.
We’re getting to the point where that should be the focus. Distribute to who is proving to want the vaccine but doesn’t have the shots to give. Sites are also collecting ZIP code data, so it’s not like state authorities don’t know where the demand is and who is willing to drive over 60 miles or whatever for a shot.

Because of our relative ease of mobility across the US, the early proportional distribution to states made sense. As has been pointed out, even by the early coalitions of states last Spring, commutes and road trips across state lines affect border cities disproportionately. So a blanket 25% of Americans vaccinated over time is just as meaningful as 25% of just New Yorkers in a month. Now, though, it might mean more to get 75% of Detroit vaccinated quickly than to worry about the vastly distanced forest dwellers between Jackson, WY and Rigby, ID.
 

Smooth

Well-Known Member
Because Ohio is between PA and MI not NJ or NY....

Still likely nothing to do with them. We just had a month of spring breaks and Ohio numbers really aren't spiking at this time. Up but not spikes.


Not a big city you are in I take it? ;)
75,000-76,000 population in the county.
 

correcaminos

Well-Known Member
75,000-76,000 population in the county.
Not tiny but about half of Franklin

The attitude you describe is taking hold from a policy standpoint, proving that even our policy makers aren’t in it for eradication. Case in point: fans at the Staples Center for a Lakers game. They were the “anti-Florida” for a really long time, and now are moving forward. To be fair, LA County allowed fans in attendance with a vaccine/negative test verification. Maybe it should be that way for gatherings indoors; time will soon tell.

“Listen to the science” clearly means listen to medical, economic, and political sciences and make a policy decision. I’m honestly ok with that, so long as people have a real option to vaccinate. More and more, they do, and it’s only getting better. So let’s all hang on to the mask a little longer and enjoy the summer. It’s coming (insert GoT meme here).
Honestly I'm not even sure what the policy makers are trying to do. My state has been all over and not as easy to figure out since we lost our great Dr. Acton last year.

Truly what went on here yesterday was "okay we're purple" do as before and get your vaccine. Pretty much it. Nothing else. I'm not minimalizing an increase, but it was expected. I had been spending my time since January helping people get appointments. I'm not needing to the last few weeks so we're doing okay with supply or people are willing to drive nearby to rural counties that have tons of slots open.
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
I feel like it’s Groundhog day around here. We don‘t need 80-85% of adults vaccinated to reach herd immunity. Israel is at 55% of their total population vaccinated

actually... they are closer to 60%... which is 80% of adults.
Not sure why you keep confusing adults with entire population.
80% of adults in Israel = 60% of population. Per Israel’s DOH, they have vaccinated 62% of entire population


and you said earlier is either approaching or reached herd immunity. We would need 65% of the 12+ population (kids 12-15 should be approved shortly) to get to that level.
no. How does 65% of 12+ equate to 62% of entire population???

Again... Israel is 62% of entire population, 80% of adults.

27% of Israel’s population is under 15.

Without touching that 27%, they still have managed to vaccinate 62% of adults

I think we hit 70%+ which means 60%+ of the total population.

we may barely hit 70% of adults. In many places and regions, we may not even hit 60% of adults. As Dr. Gottlieb suggested, he expects pockets of continued disease and spread.


I know you will credit that to their vaccine passports but that‘s a matter of opinion. Those passports just limit indoor dining and large group activities already mostly limited here.

Most employers are requiring them. You can’t have a job outside the home without the passport.

Indoor dining is just barely limited here. Gyms are open. Public gatherings are open. You need a passport for all those activities in Israel — which is a huge carrot that has led to 80% of adults getting vaccinated
It’s not a major part of the picture, the vaccines are the key driver. We can and should get there. Passports are a plan B if we don’t.
Ok... simple bet. You say we are 6 weeks behind Israel.

Today, Israel had 4 cases per million people. Will we be at that level in 6 weeks? In 6 weeks, will we be under 1,500 cases per day and still dropping?

Im sure we will get significant case reduction. I bet we are under 20,000 cases per day in 6 weeks. But will we get to Israel’s point, under 10 cases per million people?
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
Your target is what is happening in Israel. While that would be great, my target is that everybody who wants a vaccine can get vaccinated.

Yes, that is my target.

I'd be happy to submit my information to get a vaccine passport if it allowed me to not have to follow any COVID measure anywhere, including not having to wear a mask on a plane.

and yes... that would be the point of a vaccine passport. Full normalcy, at any place that uses the passport system.
 

Heppenheimer

Well-Known Member
I wonder why Moderna and Pfizer does not want to join the study with J&J and Astrazeneca on maybe blood clots from there vaccine? I would think it would help people who now may have the jitters from these vaccines getting a vaccine. Never thought about it but since these vaccines are not FDA approved we all are like case studies. No one knows for sure what is going to happen.
The same clotting issue has not been observed following the mRNA vaccines, that's why.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
actually... they are closer to 60%... which is 80% of adults.
Not sure why you keep confusing adults with entire population.
80% of adults in Israel = 60% of population. Per Israel’s DOH, they have vaccinated 62% of entire population



no. How does 65% of 12+ equate to 62% of entire population???

Again... Israel is 62% of entire population, 80% of adults.

27% of Israel’s population is under 15.

Without touching that 27%, they still have managed to vaccinate 62% of adults



we may barely hit 70% of adults. In many places and regions, we may not even hit 60% of adults. As Dr. Gottlieb suggested, he expects pockets of continued disease and spread.




Most employers are requiring them. You can’t have a job outside the home without the passport.

Indoor dining is just barely limited here. Gyms are open. Public gatherings are open. You need a passport for all those activities in Israel — which is a huge carrot that has led to 80% of adults getting vaccinated

Ok... simple bet. You say we are 6 weeks behind Israel.

Today, Israel had 4 cases per million people. Will we be at that level in 6 weeks? In 6 weeks, will we be under 1,500 cases per day and still dropping?

Im sure we will get significant case reduction. I bet we are under 20,000 cases per day in 6 weeks. But will we get to Israel’s point, under 10 cases per million people?
In the US we have 331M people. After 12+ are approved for vaccine we will have 280M people eligible. In order to reach 55% of the total population vaccinated we would need 65% of those eligible to get vaccinated (65% of 280 is 152 and 152 is 55% of 331M). Basic math there. Israel is at 54.9% of their population fully vaccinated. See below:

FC5495F4-5E87-490B-BAE7-AD0806C606E9.png
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
In the US we have 331M people. After 12+ are approved for vaccine we will have 280M people eligible. In order to reach 55% of the total population vaccinated we would need 65% of those eligible to get vaccinated (65% of 280 is 152 and 152 is 55% of 331M). Basic math there. Israel is at 54.9% of their population fully vaccinated. See below:

View attachment 549612

You repeatedly understate Israel. 62% (some sources say 58-60%) have at least 1 dose. And you get significant protection even after 1 dose.
Plus, vaccinating a kid, who are less likely to transmit disease even without vaccine, is not a replacement for vaccinating an adult who is more likely to transmit the disease.

Again, how confident are you that we will be at under 2,000 cases per day by June 1?
If we truly can match Israel in 6 weeks, then that’s the marker.
2,000 per day by June 1, and probably under 1,000 cases per day nationwide by July 1.

I’ll trust experts who have been correct in their assessments, like Scott Gottlieb, that we are unlikely to get there.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Ok... simple bet. You say we are 6 weeks behind Israel.

Today, Israel had 4 cases per million people. Will we be at that level in 6 weeks? In 6 weeks, will we be under 1,500 cases per day and still dropping?

Im sure we will get significant case reduction. I bet we are under 20,000 cases per day in 6 weeks. But will we get to Israel’s point, under 10 cases per million people?
Israel is a test case for the ballpark needed to reach herd immunity, we can’t expect the US to be exactly the same and that was never my point, but you know that. We are 6 weeks behind Israel‘s vaccine pace. That’s a fact. You said Israel hit herd immunity but they are only at 55% of the total population vaccinated. You said we need 80-85% of the eligoble adults to be vaccinated to reach herd immunity In the US. But that would be the equivalent of 68 to 72% of the total population. A level Israel hasn’t hit and you also said they are done with vaccinations so they will never hit. There seems to be a disconnect here.
 

correcaminos

Well-Known Member
I believe it's the level of hospital bed availability that put them back. I grew up in Franklin County, so my friend mentioned it earlier in a group text.

It's nothing to panic over, I was just saying pointing out that 6 cases in one county doesn't mean Ohio is suddenly in the clear.
Nope, we rose in case totals, ED visits, outpatient visits, hospital admissions (though slightly and started dropping again) and stayed same on non-congregate cases which was already a marker. So we're talking small rises though and already starting to level off but since it's a 2 week average we get hit. ICU beds are well below a critical level all around and remain relatively stable. Nothing alarming at all. Again live here and have for a long time now. Hardly anyone here is worked up over it. Some are just trying to vaccinate faster.
 
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