Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

You repeatedly understate Israel. 62% (some sources say 58-60%) have at least 1 dose. And you get significant protection even after 1 dose.
Plus, vaccinating a kid, who are less likely to transmit disease even without vaccine, is not a replacement for vaccinating an adult who is more likely to transmit the disease.

Again, how confident are you that we will be at under 2,000 cases per day by June 1?
If we truly can match Israel in 6 weeks, then that’s the marker.
2,000 per day by June 1, and probably under 1,000 cases per day nationwide by July 1.

I’ll test experts who have been correct in their assessments, like Scott Gottlieb, that we are unlikely to get there.

I trust the Bloomberg tracker. 55% is 55%

You are creating a straw man. Who said anything about under 2,000 cases by June 1? Israel’s 7 day moving average is 174 cases a day right now Or 1.89 per a thousand people. That’s 6K plus cases with the US population.

 

[havoc315]

Israel is a test case for the ballpark needed to reach herd immunity, we can’t expect the US to be exactly the same and that was never my point, but you know that. We are 6 weeks behind Israel‘s vaccine pace. That’s a fact. You said Israel hit herd immunity but they are only at 55% of the total population vaccinated.

80% of adults. 60%+ of total population with at least significant vaccine protection. And passports heavily restricting non vaccinated adults.

You said we need 80-85% of the eligoble adults to be vaccinated to reach herd immunity In the US. But that would be the equivalent of 68 to 72% of the total population. A level Israel hasn’t hit and you also said they are done with vaccinations so they will never hit. There seems to be a disconnect here.

no point In going in circles. If the US is under 1,500 cases per day in 6 weeks, then you were right. (And I’m rooting for you to be right). If we are over 2,000 cases per day in 6 weeks, then I was right. (And I’m hoping to be wrong).

 

[havoc315]

I trust the Bloomberg tracker. 55% is 55%

Bloomberg tracker says 59% with at least 1 dose... and 1 dose provides massive protection.

You are creating a straw man. Who said anything about under 2,000 cases by June 1? Israel’s 7 day moving average is 174 cases a day right now Or 1.89 per a thousand people. That’s 6K plus cases with the US population.

That hasn’t been updated for today. It’s dropping fast. 34 cases today.
Average, when updated, will be 154. Likely under 100 per day by next week. Potentially under 50 per day in 1-2 weeks.

But ok... call it 5,000, which will be the rate after today’s update. Will the US be under 5,000 cases AND declining, 6 weeks from now?

 

[DisneyFan32]

Bloomberg tracker says 59% with at least 1 dose... and 1 dose provides massive protection.



That hasn’t been updated for today. It’s dropping fast. 34 cases today.
Average, when updated, will be 154. Likely under 100 per day by next week. Potentially under 50 per day in 1-2 weeks.

But ok... call it 5,000, which will be the rate after today’s update. Will the US be under 5,000 cases AND declining, 6 weeks from now?

If that's true, by July or August we will might go back to normal if this cases.

 

[GoofGoof]

Bloomberg tracker says 59% with at least 1 dose... and 1 dose provides massive protection.

So we need 70% of eligible people to take at least 1 shot to get to that level or 195M people. Even if JnJ never starts back up, Pfizer and Moderna will have delivered enough doses for at least 210M people by end of May (plus 8M already done by JnJ) so enough doses for 195M by mid-May. Certainly possible that we are at 59% of the US population with 1 dose within 4-6 weeks.

Another way to look at it is we need 67M additional first doses to reach 59% of the total population. That‘s 1.6M first doses a day for 6 weeks. We are averaging 3.3M doses a day and more than half are first doses since we are ramping up but even at 50/50 we will hit that mark in 6 weeks or less.

 

[havoc315]

If that's true, by July or August we will might go back to normal if this cases.

It could be true. If we aggressively vaccinate, and take steps to stamp out cases.

 

[havoc315]

So we need 70% of eligible people to take at least 1 shot to get to that level or 195M people. Even if JnJ never starts back up, Pfizer and Moderna will have delivered enough doses for at least 210M people by end of May (plus 8M already done by JnJ) so enough doses for 195M by mid-May. Certainly possible that we are at 59% of the US population with 1 dose within 4-6 weeks.

Yes... I totally agree. It’s possible. We will indeed have enough doses.

The issue is vaccine hesitancy and the refusal to take steps to really stamp out cases. (That just slows us down a bit. )

 

[GoofGoof]

Yes... I totally agree. It’s possible. We will indeed have enough doses.

The issue is vaccine hesitancy and the refusal to take steps to really stamp out cases. (That just slows us down a bit. )

That I agree with, but I still feel vaccine hesitancy kicks in at the 70-75% level overall. Most polling shows 70% or more willing to go and only 20% or less in the firm no group. We can and should hit 70% eligible vaccinated which is right around 60% of total population.

 

[havoc315]

That I agree with, but I still feel vaccine hesitancy kicks in at the 70-75% level overall. Most polling shows 70% or more willing to go and only 20% or less in the firm no group. We can and should hit 70% eligible vaccinated which is right around 60% of total population.

I hope you’re right. I think we will hit it in some areas. But I fear there will be entire regions that can’t even get to 60%.

20% “firm no” is extremely high among first world nations.

 

[GoofGoof]

I hope you’re right. I think we will hit it in some areas. But I fear there will be entire regions that can’t even get to 60%.

20% “firm no” is extremely high among first world nations.

I expect some areas to hit 80-85% and others to barely reach 60% but the average should be 70%+. Remember we haven’t even tried in most places to reach people. Demand has been high enough without trying. That will change soon.

My school district just sent us an e-mail that they are doing a vaccine clinic at the high school for any students 16+. I bet they end up with a higher percent vaccinated than if those same kids needed to make appointments at CVS. Make it quick and easy for people and more will go.

 

[Figgy1]

I expect some areas to hit 80-85% and others to barely reach 60% but the average should be 70%+. Remember we haven’t even tried in most places to reach people. Demand has been high enough without trying. That will change soon.

My school district just sent us an e-mail that they are doing a vaccine clinic at the high school for any students 16+. I bet they end up with a higher percent vaccinated than if those same kids needed to make appointments at CVS. Make it quick and easy for people and more will go.

More weekend and night appointment times would help those who can't take time off from work

 

[GoofGoof]

In this poll 65% of adults either already have at least one shot or say they will get one as soon as they can. 21% still say they will never get one. It’s the 14% in the middle that are up for grabs. Even getting half will put us over 70% agreeing to be vaccinated. It should only take about 3 or 4 weeks to get to that 65% so we will know soon if the polls are accurate.

One in Five Still Shun Vaccine | Monmouth University Polling Institute

Biden gets high marks for Covid response

www.monmouth.edu

 

[Bullseye1967]

Bloomberg tracker says 59% with at least 1 dose... and 1 dose provides massive protection.



That hasn’t been updated for today. It’s dropping fast. 34 cases today.
Average, when updated, will be 154. Likely under 100 per day by next week. Potentially under 50 per day in 1-2 weeks.

But ok... call it 5,000, which will be the rate after today’s update. Will the US be under 5,000 cases AND declining, 6 weeks from now?

You are both saying correct numbers. You are quoting different figures.

 

[disneygeek90]

Nope, we rose in case totals, ED visits, outpatient visits, hospital admissions (though slightly and started dropping again) and stayed same on non-congregate cases which was already a marker. So we're talking small rises though and already starting to level off but since it's a 2 week average we get hit. ICU beds are well below a critical level all around and remain relatively stable. Nothing alarming at all. Again live here and have for a long time now. Hardly anyone here is worked up over it. Some are just trying to vaccinate faster.

Ah, I mis read the article that the hospital bed was the only gauge that was higher than allowed. It was actually the opposite.

Again, I don't know who is alarmed but it's surely not me. I was just showing that 6 cases in a county was certainly an outlier.

 

[correcaminos]

Ah, I mis read the article that the hospital bed was the only gauge that was higher than allowed. It was actually the opposite.

Again, I don't know who is alarmed but it's surely not me. I was just showing that 6 cases in a county was certainly an outlier.

I totally understand. More was letting others know what central Ohio did to be put in the "time out" corner. I didn't think you sounded worried about it. A few here were crazy with worry until they saw the numbers. First instinct was if we'd have to switch again to a hybrid or distance learning. All is the same though.

 

[Rich Brownn]

There have been multiple studies that show there is little to very low risk of a fully vaccinated individual spreading COVID. The reason vaccinated people are still masking is because it is impossible to know who has and has not be vaccinated.

The risk is that there is still a possibility that the virus is still able to transmit from you to others. At this time they do not know if the vaccine prevents you from just getting sick or also blocks transmission.

 

[SamusAranX]

The risk is that there is still a possibility that the virus is still able to transmit from you to others. At this time they do not know if the vaccine prevents you from just getting sick or also blocks transmission.

Multiple studies are showing it prevents most transmission as well

 

[GoofGoof]

The risk is that there is still a possibility that the virus is still able to transmit from you to others. At this time they do not know if the vaccine prevents you from just getting sick or also blocks transmission.

Real world studies are showing the vaccines also reduce spread. So far multiple studies have shown this and none have shown otherwise.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Bullseye1967]

The risk is that there is still a possibility that the virus is still able to transmit from you to others. At this time they do not know if the vaccine prevents you from just getting sick or also blocks transmission.

Care to show me where you got that? It is just not true. Studies show exactly that.

 

[lazyboy97o]

The AZ and J&J are viral vector tech like a flu shot but the Pfizer and Moderna are mRNA tech so they induce immunity in different manners. It is not uncommon for viral vector vaccines to have blood clotting but these clots are a different type than what has been seen in the past hence the warnings to health care not to hit this with heparin as normal.

The annual flu shots are not viral vector vaccines, they’re either inactivated or attenuated virus vaccines. The viral vector COVID-19 vaccines are really the first ones to have widespread use with the recent Ebola vaccines being approved first.