oceanbreeze77
Well-Known Member
Sidenote: Went on a girls vaccinated vacay weekend and it felt SO GREAT!!! Highly recommend IF y'all are vaccinated.
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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MrHappy
Well-Known Member
I received JnJ last Tuesday. I’ve never felt better. Me and about 6,999,994 other people.
You threw me off for a second until I saw you're only referring to adults.
Loss of JNJ could put us about 1-2 months behind where we would be with JNJ.
Hopefully JNJ comes back within a couple of weeks and there is still sufficient confidence in it.
danlb_2000
Premium Member
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Not nearly as long a delay for most people. We were projected to have enough doses for every adult by mid-May. JnJ was at most 50M of those doses so 43M additional. Those would need to be replaced with 86M doses of Pfizer/Moderna. Right now those companies are delivering 4M doses a day so 22 days of extra deliveries. Because of the 4 week delay between shots for Moderna the longest delay people would experience is 4 weeks but most would be less than 3.
It's not as simple as counting the doses.
Lack of JNJ makes it potentially harder to reach some parts of the population. JNJ was ideal for hard to reach areas and populations.
And the news may increase vaccine hesitancy.
In terms of doses... Potential for delivery in extra 22 days, but the Pfizer/Moderna cycles take 3-4 weeks longer to complete due to need of second dose, and doses don't get jabbed into arms upon delivery. With Pfizer/Moderna more difficult to plan around than JNJ.
Not to mention, it will likely delay the ability to expand Pfizer to 12-15.
Combining the lack of the simplest vaccine, extra vaccine hesitancy, etc.. it's difficult to judge how far behind we would be. 3 weeks is the minimum, but could potentially be a fair bit longer when you factor in everything.
My personal experience I related a few pages back makes it hard for me to be completely biased anymore about this. I’m not jumping to conclusions that there’s a greater conspiracy, but based on my conversations with front line health personnel in the last week I think it may be possible there’s more to the J&J story then just this issue.
The nurse that helped me after my reaction told my wife flat out “do NOT get this vaccine, I’ll book you an appointment for one of the others but I’ve seen too many people have issues with this.” My doctor (who was vaccinated early on with Moderna) said that if he had a choice and needed a vaccine now he would not choose J&J based on the prevalence of people that are calling him with reports of reactions like myself, along with the overall efficacy numbers. And finally, the pharmacist that gave my wife a Moderna shot this morning said that “almost everyone” she gave J&J too over the weekend had issues and that they seemed a lot worse and more common then Moderna.
That’s not Facebook, that’s front line medical professionals speaking in clinical settings. A lot of the issues they are seeing are maybe not related to this clotting issue, and fall under the range of ‘safe’ immediate reactions to a shot, but I don’t think we necessarily have the pieces put together yet and that’s part of why a pause at the least is a good idea. The last two weeks were the first weeks J&J had been available here on a larger scale, so it was a quite notable, recent, and dramatic change in the clinical experience many of these professionals had been observing from their prior experience with Moderna or Pfizer. Maybe some of that sentiment is included in the CDC / FDA decision, maybe it’s totally not an issue... but I can assure you it is real.
Here's what it looks like with J&J....
And without J&J...
And without J&J...
Patcheslee
Well-Known Member
I haven't read anything about production being stopped for JnJ due to the pause, so it shouldn't take too long to get back to state distribution. We had already seen a significant decrease in JnJ allocation for every state this past week. Waiting on next week's allocation to go public.
Kevin_W
Well-Known Member
Ohio hasn't made any national headlines, but as a state bordering Michigan we are certainly seeing cases tick up. 25% more cases in teh last week than the one previously. And hospitalizations are up 30% in the past 2 weeks, so it's not just healthy people that can shrug off the virus, either. It makes me even more eager for my 2nd shot on Friday.
oceanbreeze77
Well-Known Member
is this all because of low vaccinations? I'm kind of confused as to what's driving these surges.
From the age data, it appears to be mostly driven by younger people that either don't care or think they are invulnerable to the virus. Remember that we had spring break not too long ago, and a lot of those kids went back home carrying the virus from their idiot maskless parties, and are infecting a lot of other younger people.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Right. 2-3 weeks not 2 months and that’s only for a small number of people. The vast majority of people will stil be done in the same timeframe. Each individual who would have gotten a JnJ dose will have to wait for a different dose if JnJ isn’t available but that would just mean more first doses upfront and less doses waiting in storage for dose 2 for people to reach 3-4 weeks after dose 1.
For example, when we hit mid May and there would have been enough doses for every adult who wanted one (including JnJ) we would have had too many doses anyway. Best case scenario is we hit 80% acceptance which means of the 250M adults 50M don’t want one. That’s 100M “extra doses” for those people that we will have in hand on May 15. So instead of holding them and hoping the people all want one we give those doses to the people who would have gotten a JnJ shot instead. The end result is the same number of people are actually vaccinated, but the reserve for those who haven’t gone yet is depleted and builds up again later. Remember the math is 400M Pfizer and Moderna doses by the end of May or enough for 200M people plus 7M JnJ already done. I believe based on current pace the 400M will actually be delivered by the 3rd week of May. So enough doses for 207M people or 83% of eligible adults. That’s without another drop of JnJ which will likely be back soon.
I see no need to delay the 12-15 approval of Pfizer. Completely unrelated. It adds 30M more kids to the pool but they will start going in May and get shot 2 in June so it’s really only 24M additional doses used in May. Not going to hurt distribution to adults.
Kevin_W
Well-Known Member
We're about the national average in vaccinations. I think the common theory is that the vaccinations have been what's keeping Ohio and the country as a whole out of another January-type spike.
It could be spring break, it could be weather, it could be just an overall fatigue with restrictions and people deciding to take their chances. I don't think anyone has a great handle on it. (Frankly, if we had a great handle on it, we probably would have wiped this out a year ago.)
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Sadly we won’t get above 82% of adults to take a vaccine so still enough doses for everyone who wants one in May
Figgy1
Well-Known Member
I'm not seeing anything positive in the trend lines. Is this due to spring break and Easter?
Horizons '83
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
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Yes, one can make that assumption. Luckily the most at risk population is mostly vaccinated. The age group for this "slight wave" is on the younger spectrum.
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