Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Parker in NYC]

Had to go to a wedding today in Jersey. Total imposing tough-guy stranger walks up to me at the reception and asks why I’m wearing a mask, and maybe I should have stayed home. Great, my first time in a throng of people since this started and... here we go. So, I said I had halitosis. He asked what that was. Figures. I said I picked it up in Greece. Truth be told, masks were mandatory at the event space and no one was enforcing it.

Imagine what those CMs must go through!

 

[Touchdown]

I love the people who take offense to you wearing a mask, what imposition is my mask on you?

Oh it reminds you of something you should be doing but don’t want to making you feel like a misbehaving child? I’m so sorry my mask made you feel that way

 

[Parker in NYC]

I love the people who take offense to you wearing a mask, what imposition is my mask on you?

Oh it reminds you of something you should be doing but don’t want to making you feel like a misbehaving child? I’m so sorry my mask made you feel that way

There is a happy note. Once he got the mask thing off his chest and turned off his outrage autopilot, we had a lovely conversation. Sometimes, I think people just need an outlet for their rage and a pin to burst that bubble. Just don’t come for my mask.

 

[correcaminos]

I say take it but if you recovered from it and you don't need to travel I would rather they wait until supply greatly exceeds demand. I would have but the CDC said I should take it even though I have antibodies and make others with no protection wait.

Right now we have areas that really have more supply than demand. In some areas vaccine acceptance is low. My state is open to all and I'm getting more concerned about this. I have a relative who refuses the vaccine because they had botox. Others because covid is no big deal. Get your shot when you are eligible covid or not. Waiting really doesn't help in the end. We do need more visible people getting it. Again just my view of seeing how many clinics are tossing doses.

 

[GaBoy]

Had to go to a wedding today in Jersey. Total imposing tough-guy stranger walks up to me at the reception and asks why I’m wearing a mask, and maybe I should have stayed home. Great, my first time in a throng of people since this started and... here we go. So, I said I had halitosis. He asked what that was. Figures. I said I picked it up in Greece. Truth be told, masks were mandatory at the event space and no one was enforcing it.

Imagine what those CMs must go through!

I live in rural south Georgia. Masks have never been much of a thing over the past year but during the peak it was generally followed at the big retailers. Thing is no one has ever hassled anyone that wanted to wear one. Never saw it, no eye rolls, nothing. Most just looked at it as your decision. But, I have to say that manners are still a big part of culture here. Close talking and crowding has never been an issue. I can't imagine someone walking up and confronting anyone wearing a mask at a reception. For one thing there's not a lot of banter down here if offended. Fists tend to fly instead so its a big deterrent to poor manners.

 

[Parker in NYC]

I live in rural south Georgia. Masks have never been much of a thing over the past year but during the peak it was generally followed at the big retailers. Thing is no one has ever hassled anyone that wanted to wear one. Never saw it, no eyes rolls, nothing. Most just looked at it as your decision. But, I have to say that manners are still a big part of culture here. Close talking and crowding has never been an issue. I can't imagine someone walking up and confronting anyone wearing a mask at a reception. For one this there's not a lot of banter down here if offended. Fists tend to fly instead so its a big deterrent to poor manners.

Yeah, Jersey is no Georgia! No small talk here. Get to the point or get out.

 

[GoofGoof]

I live in rural south Georgia. Masks have never been much of a thing over the past year but during the peak it was generally followed at the big retailers. Thing is no one has ever hassled anyone that wanted to wear one. Never saw it, no eye rolls, nothing. Most just looked at it as your decision. But, I have to say that manners are still a big part of culture here. Close talking and crowding has never been an issue. I can't imagine someone walking up and confronting anyone wearing a mask at a reception. For one thing there's not a lot of banter down here if offended. Fists tend to fly instead so its a big deterrent to poor manners.

I have a cousin from PA who went to a wedding in rural South Carolina. His family all gave him a good ribbing for wearing a mask at the wedding. They told him that was a yankee thing . It was all in good fun and certainly not malicious in any way but it does highlight how different things are in different parts of the country.

 

[danlb_2000]

Yeah, Jersey is no Georgia! No small talk here. Get to the point or get out.

"Welcome to New Jersey, now go home."

 

[GaBoy]

I have a cousin from PA who went to a wedding in rural South Carolina. His family all gave him a good ribbing for wearing a mask at the wedding. They told him that was a yankee thing . It was all in good fun and certainly not malicious in any way but it does highlight how different things are in different parts of the country.

Like the ribbing I get for marrying a New Yorker

 

[havoc315]

Covid hit the jackpot as a virus. Pretty highly contagious, not particularly deadly and easy to spread asymptomatically and/or pre-symptomatic with a longer incubation period. If for example the virus just manifested much sooner, like you were sick within a day of exposure and you always had symptoms but weren’t contagious until you showed symptoms it would have been much easier to test and trace successfully. The quarantine periods would also be several days vs several weeks. Much different outcome.

All correct. The “nightmare viruses” you see in movies and fiction aren’t that dangerous in the real world. The ones that strike severe symptoms within hours and kill 50%. Super deadly viruses can exist but they won’t generally spread into a worldwide pandemic.
As dead people can’t spread it further. Super sick people are likely to be contained — not spread it as much.
And people will universally take it seriously.

Super contagious, lots of asymptomatic and Pre-symptomatic spread, and a death rate just high enough to still be tragic. It’s the real life nightmare scenario.

 

[GoofGoof]

We usually focus on Israel as the front runner in vaccine distribution and things continue to go well there, but changing gears a minute to look at the UK situation. Just under 48% of the total population has received 1 dose. They are focusing on first doses and then going back to do dose 2 later. Cases and deaths have really come down:

Daily cases reported today were 1,730 which is about 2.5 cases per 100,000 or adjusted for population size the US equivalent of 8,275 cases. On the death front the 7 day daily average is down to 36 or 0.05 per 100,000 which would be the US equivalent of 166 deaths a day. The point is things are looking pretty darn good with just under half the population vaccinated. There’s a lot of focus on herd immunity and projections of needing 70-90% of the population vaccinated but as we can see from Israel and the UK the impacts of the vaccines are felt at a far lower percentage vaccinated. That’s not to say either place has reached full and lasting herd immunity, but they are both looking good and hopefully a glimpse into the US future state in 4-6 weeks time as we catch up on vaccinations. We are actually on pace to reach 50%+ of the whole population with at least 1 shot by the first week of May based on the current pace.

 

[havoc315]

We usually focus on Israel as the front runner in vaccine distribution and things continue to go well there, but changing gears a minute to look at the UK situation. Just under 48% of the total population has received 1 dose. They are focusing on first doses and then going back to do dose 2 later. Cases and deaths have really come down:
View attachment 547626
View attachment 547627
Daily cases reported today were 1,730 which is about 2.5 cases per 100,000 or adjusted for population size the US equivalent of 8,275 cases. On the death front the 7 day daily average is down to 36 or 0.05 per 100,000 which would be the US equivalent of 166 deaths a day. The point is things are looking pretty darn good with just under half the population vaccinated. There’s a lot of focus on herd immunity and projections of needing 70-90% of the population vaccinated but as we can see from Israel and the UK the impacts of the vaccines are felt at a far lower percentage vaccinated. That’s not to say either place has reached full and lasting herd immunity, but they are both looking good and hopefully a glimpse into the US future state in 4-6 weeks time as we catch up on vaccinations. We are actually on pace to reach 50%+ of the whole population with at least 1 shot by the first week of May based on the current pace.

Israel might be at herd immunity... I'd still categorize UK as case containment/reduction but they might also be getting closer to herd immunity.

It's a demonstration of what is indeed possible. Not long ago, I heard the argument, "we will never get to herd immunity anyway, so may as well lift all mitigation now" -- Looking at the UK and Israel... if we do things right, there is every reason to believe we could have under 5,000 cases per day in the US by summer.

Israel's 7-day average is dropping below 300 for the first time since the early months of the pandemic (prior to wide spread testing). As of yesterday, 7 day average was 249 -- Equivalent of 9,000 cases in the US -- But that number has been falling.
Israel's 7 day average:
March 8th: 3500
March 13: 2581
March 20: 1346
March 25: 755
April 1: 373
April 5: 354
April 10: 249

So the number getting cut in half every 1-2 weeks.
I don't expect the number to hit 0 -- you'll get some infection from international travel, leading to small clusters.
But "community spread" may soon be nearly non-existent in many parts of Israel.

 

[CatesMom]

Vaccination status is a badge of honor around here:

Me: "Hi, mom friends."
Mom #1: "I'm fully vaccinated."
Mom #2: "Me, too."
Me: "I got my second dose this morning."
Moms #1 and #2: "Oooh. Drink lots of water and you'll feel better in a couple of days."
Me: "Good to know, nice seeing you."

This conversation took place when we picked up our kids from a private-showing movie Friday night, but almost every interaction begins the same way these days.

 

[Stitch826]

Anyone have thoughts/insight as to when WDW will increase capacity in their parks? Was just looking at the park pass availability calendar for early May and in the first week alone, two or three parks are unavailable each day, on a Monday through Friday period at that. Only Epcot has availability every day. If it’s that bad the first week of May, I can’t imagine how hard it will be to get reservations the rest of the summer if capacity is not increased soon.

(On a related note, everything is green on the availability calendar for July and beyond, except October 1. Could that mean they plan to significantly bump up capacity then?)

 

[correcaminos]

Anyone have thoughts/insight as to when WDW will increase capacity in their parks? Was just looking at the park pass availability calendar for early May and in the first week alone, two or three parks are unavailable each day, on a Monday through Friday period at that. Only Epcot has availability every day. If it’s that bad the first week of May, I can’t imagine how hard it will be to get reservations the rest of the summer if capacity is not increased soon.

(On a related note, everything is green on the availability calendar for July and beyond, except October 1. Could that mean they plan to significantly bump up capacity then?)

People are also simply not planning until a couple months out. Lots of open days for June until a few weeks before dining had to be made. I expect the same to happen for July and longer unless they do increase capacity.

 

[seascape]

Florida is still at 28 cases per 100,000. The US is averaging 69,632 cases per day or 21 cases per 100,000. There are now 8 states in single digits, 21 states in the 10's, 11 states in the 20's, 7 states in the 30's, 2 states in the 40's and Michigan at 74.

There is dome good in these numbers. NY is back down to 37 and NJ is down to 42 and Florida is not going up but still at 38. However, Minnesota is up to 40. Now, the best news I learned this morning is Dr. Scott Gottlieb expects Covid19 will not be the top story starting next month. just 3 weeks away. He is also optimistic that while the vaccines may not be 100% effective against people catching one of the Covid19 variants, he is optimistic that they will prevent deaths and hospitalizations. I hope he is right and we can move on to better subjects. I am still optimistic that in just 18 days we will be down to mid single digits in daily cases.

 

[havoc315]

We usually focus on Israel as the front runner in vaccine distribution and things continue to go well there, but changing gears a minute to look at the UK situation. Just under 48% of the total population has received 1 dose. They are focusing on first doses and then going back to do dose 2 later. Cases and deaths have really come down:
View attachment 547626
View attachment 547627
Daily cases reported today were 1,730 which is about 2.5 cases per 100,000 or adjusted for population size the US equivalent of 8,275 cases. On the death front the 7 day daily average is down to 36 or 0.05 per 100,000 which would be the US equivalent of 166 deaths a day. The point is things are looking pretty darn good with just under half the population vaccinated. There’s a lot of focus on herd immunity and projections of needing 70-90% of the population vaccinated but as we can see from Israel and the UK the impacts of the vaccines are felt at a far lower percentage vaccinated. That’s not to say either place has reached full and lasting herd immunity, but they are both looking good and hopefully a glimpse into the US future state in 4-6 weeks time as we catch up on vaccinations. We are actually on pace to reach 50%+ of the whole population with at least 1 shot by the first week of May based on the current pace.

One more thing about the UK. They didn’t get to this point just with vaccination. They have been in a pretty strict lockdown for the last 3 months.

only now — after such drastic reduction in cases — are they opening non-essential businesses and outdoor dining. Despite such low numbers, they are continuing to maintain significant restrictions.

While vaccinations will likely eventually bring a similar reduction here, it may not happen nearly as quickly as we are operating with far less mitigation than the U.K.

 

[DisneyCane]

As I expected, when Publix reopened the booking window this morning, all of the counties in FL that had appointments remaining on Friday still have a lot available and there is no waiting room. The few counties that filled up Friday are still full. It seems that many counties have reached the point of anybody who wants a vaccine can get it and it seems in a lot of places that the percentage who want it is much lower than polling suggests. Let's take Leon county as a quick example. The population is around 294k and 95k have been vaccinated. Appointments always fill slowly and are now easily obtainable, yet less than 1/3 of the population is vaccinated.

If there isn't a major "carrot" approach to getting people vaccinated soon, we'll be sweating even getting over 50% of the population to get vaccinated.

The younger, low risk, demographic just doesn't seem very motivated to go out and get vaccinated. Based on my spreadsheet, here is the percentage of the population in FL that has had at least one dose by age group:

25-34 15.8%
35-44 24.5%
45-54 33.3%
55-64 50.2%
65-74 80.9%
75-84 81.1%
85+ 68%

The 45-64 group has been increasing pretty quickly and 65+ keeps creeping higher every day. I'd expect the 65+ acceptance rate to get close to 90%.

Based on the trend, I'd expect 55-64 to get to 75%+ and 45-54 to get to 70%+ pretty easily. I'm very concerned about the demand from people under 45. There needs to be some major incentives that are more than a free donut every day for the next 7.5 months. There needs to be a financial incentive or a formal policy from the top that allows you to dispense with all mitigation once you are two weeks past the final shot or both.

 

[Touchdown]

As I expected, when Publix reopened the booking window this morning, all of the counties in FL that had appointments remaining on Friday still have a lot available and there is no waiting room. The few counties that filled up Friday are still full. It seems that many counties have reached the point of anybody who wants a vaccine can get it and it seems in a lot of places that the percentage who want it is much lower than polling suggests. Let's take Leon county as a quick example. The population is around 294k and 95k have been vaccinated. Appointments always fill slowly and are now easily obtainable, yet less than 1/3 of the population is vaccinated.

If there isn't a major "carrot" approach to getting people vaccinated soon, we'll be sweating even getting over 50% of the population to get vaccinated.

The younger, low risk, demographic just doesn't seem very motivated to go out and get vaccinated. Based on my spreadsheet, here is the percentage of the population in FL that has had at least one dose by age group:

25-34 15.8%
35-44 24.5%
45-54 33.3%
55-64 50.2%
65-74 80.9%
75-84 81.1%
85+ 68%

The 45-64 group has been increasing pretty quickly and 65+ keeps creeping higher every day. I'd expect the 65+ acceptance rate to get close to 90%.

Based on the trend, I'd expect 55-64 to get to 75%+ and 45-54 to get to 70%+ pretty easily. I'm very concerned about the demand from people under 45. There needs to be some major incentives that are more than a free donut every day for the next 7.5 months. There needs to be a financial incentive or a formal policy from the top that allows you to dispense with all mitigation once you are two weeks past the final shot or both.

Adding 12 and up should help but those are pitiful numbers in FL. We just opened up to everyone last week in WI and we already have higher numbers:

Were not exactly a blue state either.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

As I expected, when Publix reopened the booking window this morning, all of the counties in FL that had appointments remaining on Friday still have a lot available and there is no waiting room. The few counties that filled up Friday are still full. It seems that many counties have reached the point of anybody who wants a vaccine can get it and it seems in a lot of places that the percentage who want it is much lower than polling suggests. Let's take Leon county as a quick example. The population is around 294k and 95k have been vaccinated. Appointments always fill slowly and are now easily obtainable, yet less than 1/3 of the population is vaccinated.

If there isn't a major "carrot" approach to getting people vaccinated soon, we'll be sweating even getting over 50% of the population to get vaccinated.

The younger, low risk, demographic just doesn't seem very motivated to go out and get vaccinated. Based on my spreadsheet, here is the percentage of the population in FL that has had at least one dose by age group:

25-34 15.8%
35-44 24.5%
45-54 33.3%
55-64 50.2%
65-74 80.9%
75-84 81.1%
85+ 68%

The 45-64 group has been increasing pretty quickly and 65+ keeps creeping higher every day. I'd expect the 65+ acceptance rate to get close to 90%.

Based on the trend, I'd expect 55-64 to get to 75%+ and 45-54 to get to 70%+ pretty easily. I'm very concerned about the demand from people under 45. There needs to be some major incentives that are more than a free donut every day for the next 7.5 months. There needs to be a financial incentive or a formal policy from the top that allows you to dispense with all mitigation once you are two weeks past the final shot or both.

How pitiful is it where we need to pay or have big incentives to convince people that this is the right thing to do for everyone. Saving lives doesn’t seem to be enough.. getting things back to normal isn’t enough..it’s just sad.
The dispensing with all mitigation after both shots is wrong and not the way to go about things IMO and many scientists. If those first 2 things aren’t enough, saying you can get rid of your mask after 2 shots won’t do it.