Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[James J]

The promising thing is in both the UK and especially Israel as things did open back up cases did not surge. If you remember back to Feb when Israel came out of their stay at home orders there was a very small plateau in cases that lasted a week or 2. There were people here who saw that as certain doom. You can go back and see the series of posts. The vaccines did their thing and cases turned back downward and are now really bottoming out. So yes, we have less restrictions most places, but as we saw in Israel and now are starting to see in the UK, even when restrictions are in place and they get lifted the vaccines are still driving cases down, way down.

We in the UK have only just lifted some of the restrictions this morning, so non-essential stores, gyms, salons, zoos, theme parks and outdoor dining are now back, but there's still no indoor dining and things like weddings and funerals are still having very limited attendees. No sporting stadia are allowing fans in until the end of May at the very earliest too.

 

[GimpYancIent]

We in the UK have only just lifted some of the restrictions this morning, so non-essential stores, gyms, salons, zoos, theme parks and outdoor dining are now back but there's still no indoor dining.

Hope things continue to improve for all of you.

 

[Chomama]

Update from the Deep South. We have vaccinated about 1.3 million people in Alabama. That’s the number I focus on because even one shot is highly effective. Our population is 4.9 million , so 26% vaccinated. That’s way too low and hasn’t moved much lately. That said - our numbers fell quickly in February and haven’t gone back up. Sure, we may have a surge, but hospitalizations are similar to April 2020 and steady or decreasing for weeks now. Here’s the theory in my neck of the woods: reported infections since last March amount to 10.5% of our population. Given the very strong affinity for certain political values coupled with rural and marginalized communities, you are looking at (per local ID doc at UAB) likes closer to 20% infected. She said that believe 20% is minimum infected. Add that to the 26% who got the shot - Alabama is at 46% give or take. (Obviously some overlap in those two groups). And now look at our case trends and hospitalizations. They fell off a cliff. All that to say that there is a lot of local speculation that we are going to reach some sort of slow down or heard immunity much sooner than other parts of the country because we have basically just let this thing rip down here. I would say about 30 to 40% of the people I know personally have already had Covid and the rest are getting a shot 1 minus the few former guy fans who will never get it. It will be interesting to see if we avoid another spike down here with just 3% of the population vaccinated

 

[havoc315]

Yes, what you said = ARBITRARY! Thank you.

Then nearly everything is arbitrary by the same standards.
Speed limits are arbitrary -- why 55 instead of 56?
"Normal temperature" of 98.6 is arbitrary -- it really isn't exactly 98.6, it's really a range of about 97-99.
When we talk about "healthy weight," "healthy blood pressure" -- again, these are "arbitrary" -- as they are not exact.

So yes -- I guess it's arbitrary, in the sense that EVERYTHING is arbitrary.

But, like a normal temperature of 98.6, and like speed limits of 30 in residential neighborhoods and 55-65 on highways...
Social distance of 6 feet apart is indeed based on known science and good policy. It's not a random number picked out of a hat.

 

[DisneyCane]

Then nearly everything is arbitrary by the same standards.
Speed limits are arbitrary -- why 55 instead of 56?
"Normal temperature" of 98.6 is arbitrary -- it really isn't exactly 98.6, it's really a range of about 97-99.
When we talk about "healthy weight," "healthy blood pressure" -- again, these are "arbitrary" -- as they are not exact.

So yes -- I guess it's arbitrary, in the sense that EVERYTHING is arbitrary.

But, like a normal temperature of 98.6, and like speed limits of 30 in residential neighborhoods and 55-65 on highways...
Social distance of 6 feet apart is indeed based on known science and good policy. It's not a random number picked out of a hat.

Speed limits being multiples of five are likely because it is very difficult to read the speed on a speedometer that isn't on a large tick mark with a quick glance. My wife had a 2009 Ford Escape and for some reason Ford thought it was a good idea to only have the multiples of ten with a large mark. Then there were 9 small marks in between. Trying to drive 55 (or any other midpoint) was very difficult. The speeds which were rounded to the multiples of five are based on reaction time and road design. They aren't arbitrary. Even the somewhat arbitrary national 55 MPH was chosen to save fuel during the oil crisis without making highway travel too ridiculously slow.

With respect to the six feet, it seems to just be an educated guess, best practice for airborne disease spread prevention and nothing scientific specific to SARS-CoV-2. A couple of thousand pages back I posted that I had watched a documentary on the Space Shuttle Challenger. There was a point where Christa McAuliffe was filmed biking while in the pre-mission quarantine. A reporter was asking questions and she said to stay six feet away from her.

 

[DisneyCane]

We in the UK have only just lifted some of the restrictions this morning, so non-essential stores, gyms, salons, zoos, theme parks and outdoor dining are now back, but there's still no indoor dining and things like weddings and funerals are still having very limited attendees. No sporting stadia are allowing fans in until the end of May at the very earliest too.

What's the logic for gyms being OK but not indoor dining?

 

[havoc315]

Speed limits being multiples of five are likely because it is very difficult to read the speed on a speedometer that isn't on a large tick mark with a quick glance.

So it's arbitrary. And it would also be hard to tell people to stand "5 feet 8 inches apart" -- 6 feet is a nice round number.

With respect to the six feet, it seems to just be an educated guess,

Ah no. There have been tons of peer reviewed studies on aerosol spread, etc. It's not just an educated guess.

Airborne Transmission Route of COVID-19: Why 2 Meters/6 Feet of Inter-Personal Distance Could Not Be Enough

The COVID-19 pandemic caused the shutdown of entire nations all over the world. In addition to mobility restrictions of people, the World Health Organization and the Governments have prescribed maintaining an inter-personal distance of 1.5 or 2 m (about ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2? Evidence, prevention and control

As public health teams respond to the pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), containment and understanding of the modes of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission is of utmost importance for policy making. During ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Airborne Transmission of SARS-CoV-2—Theoretical Considerations and Available Evidence

This Viewpoint discusses physical and epidemiological evidence supporting droplet vs aerosol transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), and concludes on balance that aerosol transmission seems unlikely to be the dominant mode of coronavirus disease 2019...

jamanetwork.com

Two metres or one: what is the evidence for physical distancing in covid-19?

Rigid safe distancing rules are an oversimplification based on outdated science and experiences of past viruses, argue Nicholas R Jones and colleagues Physical distancing is an important part of measures to control covid-19, but exactly how far away and for how long contact is safe in...

www.bmj.com

It's been studied EXTENSIVELY. It's not a "guess."

 

[lisa12000]

What's the logic for gyms being OK but not indoor dining?

matt Hancock suggested that the different reasons you go to the places is the reason ie for indoor dining and pubs you go to socialise with each other and drink alcohol therefore may be less inclined to socially distance whereas for a gym and none essential retail it’s more of an individual exercise (no classes in gyms right now) therefore isafer

I’m not saying I agree with the fact I can go to primark amongst the hordes today (and it was a scrum) and not go into Starbucks or costa with my family and have a cup of coffee for 15-20 mins - but that seems to be their reasoning

 

[Mark52479]

We knew here in FL it was going to be tough to get the under 40 crowd vaccinated. It was mentioned on the news weeks ago that the Florida Health Department did an internal review and they came back with something like 35% of people under 40 were going to get the vaccine.

The avg age of daily infection now in Florida is 35. So the younger people are the ones getting it in FL.

 

[correcaminos]

Yeah... gay days is usually the 1st week in June... I know this cause my birthday is June 6...and it is always gping on when I visit WDW for my b-day

Gay Days was officially cancelled this year. I still expect MK on the 5th to have red shirts though.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

matt Hancock suggested that the different reasons you go to the places is the reason ie for indoor dining and pubs you go to socialise with each other and drink alcohol therefore may be less inclined to socially distance whereas for a gym and none essential retail it’s more of an individual exercise (no classes in gyms right now) therefore isafer

I’m not saying I agree with the fact I can go to primark amongst the hordes today (and it was a scrum) and not go into Starbucks or costa with my family and have a cup of coffee for 15-20 mins - but that seems to be their reasoning

I'd assume that being able force people to wear masks while exercising but needing to remove your mask to eat or drink also plays a role in why they're being treated differently.

 

[havoc315]

matt Hancock suggested that the different reasons you go to the places is the reason ie for indoor dining and pubs you go to socialise with each other and drink alcohol therefore may be less inclined to socially distance whereas for a gym and none essential retail it’s more of an individual exercise (no classes in gyms right now) therefore isafer

I’m not saying I agree with the fact I can go to primark amongst the hordes today (and it was a scrum) and not go into Starbucks or costa with my family and have a cup of coffee for 15-20 mins - but that seems to be their reasoning

Not to mention -- You can wear a mask in a gym. You can't wear a mask when dining.
You can workout socially distanced from anyone else.
At a restaurant, you're not socially distanced from the other people at your table, from the wait staff.

A gym and a restaurant are completely totally different environments.

 

[DisneyCane]

We knew here in FL it was going to be tough to get the under 40 crowd vaccinated. It was mentioned on the news weeks ago that the Florida Health Department did an internal review and they came back with something like 35% of people under 40 were going to get the vaccine.

The avg age of daily infection now in Florida is 35. So the younger people are the ones getting it in FL.

I wonder how that number will compare to other States. I hadn't seen that report so thanks for posting.

 

[Mark52479]

I wonder how that number will compare to other States. I hadn't seen that report so thanks for posting.

It was mentioned during a news conference last month when they were deciding on lowering the age for vaccines.

I think thats why they lowered them so fast. They knew there wasnt going to be that big of a demand for the younger people.

 

[corsairk09]

How pitiful is it where we need to pay or have big incentives to convince people that this is the right thing to do for everyone. Saving lives doesn’t seem to be enough.. getting things back to normal isn’t enough..it’s just sad.
The dispensing with all mitigation after both shots is wrong and not the way to go about things IMO and many scientists. If those first 2 things aren’t enough, saying you can get rid of your mask after 2 shots won’t do it.

It has probably been said before, but it comes back to information. Logically... if you are vulnerable and vaccinated then I don't need to get vaccinated to protect YOU. So unless people feel that they are in danger, then they don't see the "moral obligation to others." If that is a logical fallacy then that needs to be efficiently communicated all over the place.

I am a teacher and young 30s. I got vaccinated not for fear of my health but for quarantine/work related issues. Did the JnJ.

 

[corsairk09]

I think one thing that will help younger people get vaccinated is quarantine rules. It won't be a vaccine passport but if you can avoid quarantining for two weeks after an exposure you will see a lot more young people get vaccinated. Eventually WFH flexibility will run out. Same with kids. You won't see schools mandate the vaccine but they will say if your kid has proof of vaccination they won't have to quarantine. This will get those on the fence.

This is one of the main reasons I was vaccinated. Can't afford the two weeks off.

 

[lisa12000]

Not to mention -- You can wear a mask in a gym. You can't wear a mask when dining.
You can workout socially distanced from anyone else.
At a restaurant, you're not socially distanced from the other people at your table, from the wait staff.

A gym and a restaurant are completely totally different environments.

studies over here have shown that there was little contribution to the infection rates from indoor dining even from the second wave though. Tbh I feel safer in a pub with the mitigation’s put in place than in many non essential retail stores. Anyway I sort of take the point with alcohol being an issue and even the length of time in there but still really really don’t see the issue with a Costa - even if they made it household only for now for indoor hospitality abs outdoor for mixed households

ps not sure what it’s like in the US but we don’t have to wear a mask when working out in the gym over here

 

[DisneyCane]

It has probably been said before, but it comes back to information. Logically... if you are vulnerable and vaccinated then I don't need to get vaccinated to protect YOU. So unless people feel that they are in danger, then they don't see the "moral obligation to others." If that is a logical fallacy then that needs to be efficiently communicated all over the place.

I am a teacher and young 30s. I got vaccinated not for fear of my health but for quarantine/work related issues. Did the JnJ.

Something employers can do is a policy that says if you choose not to be vaccinated and get infected and have to miss work, it is unpaid time. If you get vaccinated and are one of the few who still get infected and you have to miss work then you get paid leave. There is no forced vaccination but a potential benefit to doing so.

 

[havoc315]

studies over here have shown that there was little contribution to the infection rates from indoor dining even from the second wave though. Tbh I feel safer in a pub with the mitigation’s put in place than in many non essential retail stores. Anyway I sort of take the point with alcohol being an issue and even the length of time in there but still really really don’t see the issue with a Costa - even if they made it household only for now for indoor hospitality abs outdoor for mixed households

ps not sure what it’s like in the US but we don’t have to wear a mask when working out in the gym over here

Yes, masks are required in gyms... though probably depends on the state. In NY, masks are required in gyms.

And yes, there is evidence that indoor dining contributing to Covid infection spread:

CDC Observes Link Between COVID-19 Spikes and Increased Dining Out

The findings don’t prove cause and effect, but the statistically significant patterns are in line with previous studies and expert advice

www.eater.com

COVID and indoor dining: Concerns are valid but data scarce to support closures

It’s understandable why there are concerns about indoor dining during the coronavirus pandemic. Diners are unmasked, and they’re often there for a long time. As they chat before, during…

www.mcall.com

It's been something hard to study. Not exactly easy to create a study vs placebo group to measure indoor dining. Plus, we don't do nearly enough contract tracing to fully measure.

But there is plenty of evidence suggesting a likely link between indoor dining and infection spread.

PolitiFact - Ingraham wrongly claims ‘no science’ suggests restaurants spread COVID-19

Fox News host Laura Ingraham downplayed the risk of contracting the coronavirus while dining at a restaurant, wrongly cl

www.politifact.com

 

[DisneyDebRob]

matt Hancock suggested that the different reasons you go to the places is the reason ie for indoor dining and pubs you go to socialise with each other and drink alcohol therefore may be less inclined to socially distance whereas for a gym and none essential retail it’s more of an individual exercise (no classes in gyms right now) therefore isafer

I’m not saying I agree with the fact I can go to primark amongst the hordes today (and it was a scrum) and not go into Starbucks or costa with my family and have a cup of coffee for 15-20 mins - but that seems to be their reasoning

Also.. gyms still have masks in place, at least around here. Work out distanced and with masks. Dining is no masks. Not saying it’s not safe with distance but I think they are the reasons.
Edit: Answered above in other post.