Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[JoeCamel]

An increase of 846 cases for the past 7 days! That is 21 more cases a day. Horrible and people in Florida need to do better.

It's spring break....

 

[GoofGoof]

I think your math is off. It looks to me like 2,855 for the past 7 days over the prior 7 days. That's an increase of a little under 8%. However, the median age of new cases is 35 and as my post above shows a very high percentage of the most vulnerable to serious issues are vaccinated and more of them become maximally protected every day.

Nobody in FL is going to do anything more at this point. Cases will start to drop once certain thresholds are reached for vaccinated people.

Yeah, I mean do people really think behavior is going to be any different? The ship has sailed, the vaccines will bail us out...hopefully. In a practical sense cases staying up in FL may actually help with vaccine acceptance. If the cases flatlined right now even more people may decide they don’t need the vaccine.

 

[GoofGoof]

I'm partial to an unmarked van driving around with people armed with dart guns.

I would volunteer for that. Need to blow off some steam

 

[Patcheslee]

I found that vaccination rates with 85+ in our state plateaued several weeks ago. We're at a fairly high percentage at above 85%, but the next two age demographics below them have surpassed 90%. I think its partially a mobility issue, partially being particularly disconnected to the outside world during the pandemic. Many rely on outside sources of transportation, and arranging this and scheduling a vaccination is probably just a little too much for a small percentage of the elderly.

Accessibility seems to be a big one, there's counties reporting single digit doses being distributed a day. How many those counties are being allocated may be hindering them as well.

 

[Bullseye1967]

I found that vaccination rates with 85+ in our state plateaued several weeks ago. We're at a fairly high percentage at above 85%, but the next two age demographics below them have surpassed 90%. I think its partially a mobility issue, partially being particularly disconnected to the outside world during the pandemic. Many rely on outside sources of transportation, and arranging this and scheduling a vaccination is probably just a little too much for a small percentage of the elderly.

I also think Hospice may be a part of this. You will be kept as comfortable as possible but they will not mitigate death and in my Uncle's case not vaccinate.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

I'm partial to an unmarked van driving around with people armed with dart guns.

This could be the best idea on this thread ever.

 

[GoofGoof]

Vaccinations today ticked up to over 1/3 of the total population already started. We also hit 25% of adults fully vaccinated. Another big milestone. Due to the high level of efficacy after the first dose I tend to focus on the at least 1 shot statistics. 65+ up to 76.4% and climbing. keep em coming

 

[Patcheslee]

This could be the best idea on this thread ever.

Spraypaint "free Mickey Bars" and watch them come running lol

 

[JoeCamel]

Yeah, I mean do people really think behavior is going to be any different? The ship has sailed, the vaccines will bail us out...hopefully. In a practical sense cases staying up in FL may actually help with vaccine acceptance. If the cases flatlined right now even more people may decide they don’t need the vaccine.

Only wrinkle is Florida is ground zero for the UK variant (B1.1.7) right now, let that thing mutate into something more deadly and we are in trouble. It is already more contagious than the "wild" we had at first

 

[GaBoy]

This is a caricature formed from being Very Online (which I'm guilty of myself).

Most vaccine hesitancy is NOT "I ain't letting the gubbmint inject me full of those Bill Gates mind control nanoparticles just because that fascist Fauci tells me to."

Most vaccine hesitancy is normie middle-aged guy watching the Yankee game when is wife says "are you gonna get that vaccine?" and he says "I heard something on the radio about that... they're saying if you get it you still have to wear a mask and whatnot and that there are huge lines? I might get around to it eventually."

So basically just good old fashion laziness because after my first vaccination I felt bulletproof (misplaced I know) and have forgotten a mask a time or two. Its just not ever present on my mind anymore.

 

[Figgy1]

Numbers are out - there were 42 new reported deaths.

View attachment 546109View attachment 546110View attachment 546111View attachment 546112

IMHO that trend line isn't looking good

 

[Nubs70]

13,423 appointments booked thru April 17th -

My city main vac site here in MI is doing 12,000/day plus all the supermarket pharmacies

 

[havoc315]

Vaccinations today ticked up to over 1/3 of the total population already started. We also hit 25% of adults fully vaccinated. Another big milestone. Due to the high level of efficacy after the first dose I tend to focus on the at least 1 shot statistics. 65+ up to 76.4% and climbing. keep em coming

I tend to focus on the 1st shot statistics... since the 2nd shot is generally automatically scheduled, it tells you what the minimum full vaccination will be in 3-4 weeks. So about 34% have gotten their first shot... so we should have at a minimum of 34% fully vaccinated by the end of April, and well on our way to 50% fully vaccinated by end of May... BUT... I think we might fairly soon start to see vaccine supply surpassing demand and a decline in daily vaccinations. By May, I wouldn't be surprised if we started to see a decline. Right now, the daily numbers stay high as we keep adding a new group / age bracket every week. But by May, everyone will have been eligible for a while. So all the people that "really want it" will have their appointments scheduled, if not already gotten a jab. (My 16 yo son is scheduled for this Friday).

 

[GoofGoof]

I tend to focus on the 1st shot statistics... since the 2nd shot is generally automatically scheduled, it tells you what the minimum full vaccination will be in 3-4 weeks. So about 34% have gotten their first shot... so we should have at a minimum of 34% fully vaccinated by the end of April, and well on our way to 50% fully vaccinated by end of May... BUT... I think we might fairly soon start to see vaccine supply surpassing demand and a decline in daily vaccinations. By May, I wouldn't be surprised if we started to see a decline. Right now, the daily numbers stay high as we keep adding a new group / age bracket every week. But by May, everyone will have been eligible for a while. So all the people that "really want it" will have their appointments scheduled, if not already gotten a jab. (My 16 yo son is scheduled for this Friday).

Agreed first shot is a good indication of how many will ultimately be fully vaccinated. Since the efficacy 2 weeks after shot 1 also appear to be 80%+ in real life studies I also assume a lot of the impact on cases should be felt within 2 weeks of shot 1. The 2nd shot adds further protection but as we have seen in the UK, 1 shot does give a substantial amount of protection as well and will move the needle down on cases. We will be over 50% of adults with at least 1 shot in a few weeks, most will be 2+weeks by May 1.

The pace will slow soon in certain locations. Demand overall is still way higher than supply but levels of demand vary by state and locally within each state. The states and the federal government are going to have to make some calls on allocating doses to places where demand is higher. That should help keep the pace up of done right. Eventually we will run out of people that want to go, but that’s a good thing

 

[havoc315]

Agreed first shot is a good indication of how many will ultimately be fully vaccinated. Since the efficacy 2 weeks after shot 1 also appear to be 80%+ in real life studies I also assume a lot of the impact on cases should be felt within 2 weeks of shot 1. The 2nd shot adds further protection but as we have seen in the UK, 1 shot does give a substantial amount of protection as well and will move the needle down on cases. We will be over 50% of adults with at least 1 shot in a few weeks, most will be 2+weeks by May 1.

The pace will slow soon in certain locations. Demand overall is still way higher than supply but levels of demand vary by state and locally within each state. The states and the federal government are going to have to make some calls on allocating doses to places where demand is higher. That should help keep the pace up of done right. Eventually we will run out of people that want to go, but that’s a good thing

It's a good thing if we run out of people with 75%+ (preferably 85%+) of eligible people being vaccinated. Not so great if we run out at 50-60% of eligible people vaccinated.

I'd like to see us get to Israel's level... 55-60% of total population over 16 vaccinated. Then when kids become eligible, pushing that up to 70%+ of population vaccinated. If we can do that, then maybe we have a shot at true herd immunity (as opposed to mere case reduction).
I suspect some parts of the country will surpass that, others might struggle to even get a 50% vaccination rate.

 

[ABQ]

Only wrinkle is Florida is ground zero for the UK variant (B1.1.7) right now, let that thing mutate into something more deadly and we are in trouble. It is already more contagious than the "wild" we had at first

Look for Michigan to take that crown away from FL. Not immediately, but with half as many people, they have about half as many cases of B117. FL, about 3200 cases with 20 million people in the state, Michigan with 1600 cases and 9 million people. However, Michigan's trend line is still the steepest anywhere. @Nubs70 needs that vac site to triple the impressive output of 12k per day.

 

[Patcheslee]

Husband just got his first Moderna shot. Next shot isn't until May 12th.

 

[Heppenheimer]

I also think Hospice may be a part of this. You will be kept as comfortable as possible but they will not mitigate death and in my Uncle's case not vaccinate.

Interesting. Hospice patients are still being vaccinated in our state. With all the caregivers they contact, they don't want these patients to become a nexus of infection. Also, keep in mind that being on hospice doesn't necessarily mean death is imminent, it just means the goals of care change from prolonging life to emphasizing comfort.

 

[cjack300zx]

Spraypaint "free Mickey Bars" and watch them come running lol

Sadly the company I work for is paying employees $100.00 to get the vaccine but only about 30% oh the employees at my store have gotten the shot. I'm hoping more will get if we get the J&J vaccine

 

[GaBoy]

Sadly the company I work for is paying employees $100.00 to get the vaccine but only about 30% oh the employees at my store have gotten the shot. I'm hoping more will get if we get the J&J vaccine

After the year we've had it blows my mind.