Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GimpYancIent]

If you’re going to go that route, then no it’s not the fastest route. A strategic nuclear strike to multiple sites around the world exterminating Covid by killing its hosts (humans) would kill the virus the fastest.

But much like the idea you brought up, this is unacceptable.

Recently a person with a scientific degree, in conversation w me about the health of the planet, referred to humans as parasites infesting the planet and that the earth would be healthier w out humans. At that point I disengaged and proceeded to converse w others. I found myself disturbed by that view.

 

[mmascari]

I made no claims about what the "primary goal" should or should not be. I did not say "this is the best path." All I said was "this is the FASTEST path."

Except you kind of did. Or, at least we're not all talking about the same definition of "pandemic end". I'll accept that I did not explicitly define what "end" means either.

If we only focus on the stop of spread, and nothing else and allow that we can stop spread without returning to "normal" and call that an end. Then, I'll agree that the "no mitigation" box would be faster than "vaccine and mitigations until spread is low". It's not normal and will have huge economic and human tolls though. Using that metric, we should have never done any mitigations, it's just a scale issue at that point, it would have ended sooner, the top left box done last year.

I was defining "pandemic end" as a "return to normal, no mitigations needed by anyone any longer, case counts low and squashed as hot spots pop up, economic activity returns to normal for all (most*) businesses, death and other impacts reduced to levels similar to flu/automobile accidents/40K yearly". Getting here is definitely the bottom right. A more severe path would impact all those other things beyond just spread.


*most - Businesses dependent on international travel between areas of different community spread will lag based on the slowest response area for the interaction.

 

[Touchdown]

Recently a person with a scientific degree, in conversation w me about the health of the planet, referred to humans as parasites infesting the planet and that the earth would be healthier w out humans. At that point I disengaged and proceeded to converse w others. I found myself disturbed by that view.

Have you seen Kingsman: The Secret Service? It’s a fun irreverent spy thriller/comedy and that is litterally the motivation and belief of the antagonists.

 

[GoofGoof]

I feel like some of these discussions have become a bit pointless. There are people who felt we didn’t need most or all of the Covid mitigations when there was no vaccine so of course they aren’t going to agree that we need them now that there is one. It is what it is, that ship has sailed and we got what we got. All we can do now is look forward and focus on vaccinations. Covid safety mitigation’s like masks and distancing will be in place until both cases drop to a low enough level and a high enough percent of the population is vaccinated. A group of people don’t think they are necessary now and won’t follow the safety protocols, but that has been true since last March. Even if any of us think the safety measures are unnecessary we won’t get a real “return to normal” until they are lifted and the masses return to acting somewhat normal. That is the goal.

On vaccine hesitancy, there needs to be a better effort made to educate people and provide concrete facts. I think it should be a centralized approach to start and then it’s handed off to state and ultimately local government or community groups to help with. Vaccine hesitancy doesn‘t have one specific and common cause. For some people it may be fear or distrust of government (certain minority groups and immigrants who have been treated poorly in the past). In those cases community and religious leaders who people do trust can help ease people’s minds. It means a lot more coming from the local preacher you actually know and trust than from Oprah or Lebron. For others it’s fear of science and medicine. In that case it‘s probably local doctors that can do the most good. Hearing the head of the CDC or Fauci say the vaccines are safe doesn’t hold as much water as the family doctor who you know and trust. We all benefit from every extra person who is vaccinated so even talking about it with friends and family can’t hurt.

 

[JD80]

I'm partial to an unmarked van driving around with people armed with dart guns.

 

[mmascari]

I'm partial to an unmarked van driving around with people armed with dart guns.

J&J?

Or are the also GPS tagging? That second does is going to be much harder to sneak up with.

Can I get a call out to wildlife researchers for some expertise? It's there time to shine.

 

[JD80]

J&J?

Or are the also GPS tagging? That second does is going to be much harder to sneak up with.

Can I get a call out to wildlife researchers for some expertise? It's there time to shine.

Don't need a GPS tag. The 5G chip will handle everything.

 

[aliceismad]

It means a lot more coming from the local preacher you actually know and trust than from Oprah or Lebron. For others it’s fear of science and medicine. In that case it‘s probably local doctors that can do the most good. Hearing the head of the CDC or Fauci say the vaccines are safe doesn’t hold as much water as the family doctor who you know and trust. We all benefit from every extra person who is vaccinated so even talking about it with friends and family can’t hurt.

I agree with you that a more concerted education effort is needed at all levels.

However, I would say there's also the opposite problem. I might trust the CDC or Fauci over my local doctor. It took me seeing 6+ doctors, a specialist, a surgeon, months/years of pain, and several tests to finally get a fairly simple diagnosis correct. I've heard similar stories from a lot of friends as well. So many of us have doctors that rush us in and out of appointments, don't really listen or are hamstrung by insurance, etc. Some of us don't feel we can trust them. That's a shame because they should be a level of authority and leadership in health matters in society.

 

[DCBaker]

13,423 appointments booked thru April 17th -

 

[sullyinMT]

J&J?

Or are the also GPS tagging? That second does is going to be much harder to sneak up with.

Can I get a call out to wildlife researchers for some expertise? It's there time to shine.

No need for researchers. Big game hunters are pretty good shots. Just tell ‘em to aim for the glute and it’s still a good IM injection.

 

[DCBaker]

Numbers are out - there were 42 new reported deaths.

 

[DCBaker]

Current Florida vaccine report -

 

[seascape]

Numbers are out - there were 42 new reported deaths.

View attachment 546109View attachment 546110View attachment 546111View attachment 546112

An increase of 846 cases for the past 7 days! That is 21 more cases a day. Horrible and people in Florida need to do better.

 

[DisneyCane]

Current Florida vaccine report -

View attachment 546114View attachment 546115

Through this report, here is the percentage vaccinated (at least one shot) by age group (I got the population numbers calculating from the mortality report in the case monitoring PDF):

25-34 11.9%
35-44 20.1%
45-54 29.6%
55-64 46.8%
65-74 79.3%
75-84 79.8%
85+ 66.8%

I have no idea why 85+ is lagging behind the rest of 65+ by so much. Mobility issues? Medical issues that prevent taking vaccines?

I must have figured out the population accurately because my calculation of 30.8% of the population with at least one dose matches the CDC. They seem to be administering around 1.2 million doses per week. Trying to swag the mix of J&J we can probably assume an average of 100,000 per day newly vaccinated. That's about 3.2% of the population per week. Maintaining that rate, 50% of the population of FL should have at least one shot in six weeks, roughly by 5/21.

Supply and rate of injections must increase to get everybody who wants to be vaccinated started by the end of May if we assume at least 70% want to be vaccinated.

 

[DisneyCane]

An increase of 846 cases for the past 7 days! That is 21 more cases a day. Horrible and people in Florida need to do better.

I think your math is off. It looks to me like 2,855 for the past 7 days over the prior 7 days. That's an increase of a little under 8%. However, the median age of new cases is 35 and as my post above shows a very high percentage of the most vulnerable to serious issues are vaccinated and more of them become maximally protected every day.

Nobody in FL is going to do anything more at this point. Cases will start to drop once certain thresholds are reached for vaccinated people.

 

[wdisney9000]

An increase of 846 cases for the past 7 days! That is 21 more cases a day. Horrible and people in Florida need to do better.

What about the states with far tighter restrictions but higher deaths. How do they "do better"? How does Florida "do better"? More restrictions? The same restrictions that haven't produced better results elsewhere?

 

[seascape]

I think your math is off. It looks to me like 2,855 for the past 7 days over the prior 7 days. That's an increase of a little under 8%. However, the median age of new cases is 35 and as my post above shows a very high percentage of the most vulnerable to serious issues are vaccinated and more of them become maximally protected every day.

Nobody in FL is going to do anything more at this point. Cases will start to drop once certain thresholds are reached for vaccinated people.

I am looking solely at today's number and talking about the one day increase compared to yesterday. Subtract last Wednesday's number from today's number. I am not minimizing the fact that Florida is not doing well. In fact if it weren't for Michigan and NJ doing so poorly, Florida would be considered one of the worst states and if the people of Florida don't do better they will soon be in the top 10 states in cases per 100,000. More restrictions aren't needed. but wearing a mask, social distancing and washing your hands will reduce the number of cases. In fact my wife and I are fully vaccinated and proudly wear masks saying that. People just need to do the right thing.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Through this report, here is the percentage vaccinated (at least one shot) by age group (I got the population numbers calculating from the mortality report in the case monitoring PDF):

25-34 11.9%
35-44 20.1%
45-54 29.6%
55-64 46.8%
65-74 79.3%
75-84 79.8%
85+ 66.8%

I have no idea why 85+ is lagging behind the rest of 65+ by so much. Mobility issues? Medical issues that prevent taking vaccines?

I must have figured out the population accurately because my calculation of 30.8% of the population with at least one dose matches the CDC. They seem to be administering around 1.2 million doses per week. Trying to swag the mix of J&J we can probably assume an average of 100,000 per day newly vaccinated. That's about 3.2% of the population per week. Maintaining that rate, 50% of the population of FL should have at least one shot in six weeks, roughly by 5/21.

Supply and rate of injections must increase to get everybody who wants to be vaccinated started by the end of May if we assume at least 70% want to be vaccinated.

I found that vaccination rates with 85+ in our state plateaued several weeks ago. We're at a fairly high percentage at above 85%, but the next two age demographics below them have surpassed 90%. I think its partially a mobility issue, partially being particularly disconnected to the outside world during the pandemic. Many rely on outside sources of transportation, and arranging this and scheduling a vaccination is probably just a little too much for a small percentage of the elderly.

 

[Bullseye1967]

I think you are reading this wrong:

"two of the three were within three weeks of completing their vaccine"

Earlier in the article is says that all of these people were fully vaccinated. I think this sentence means that they were infected 2 to 3 weeks after being fully vaccinated, implying that the full effect of the vaccine may take longer for some people.

I think you are right

 

[JoeCamel]

An increase of 846 cases for the past 7 days! That is 21 more cases a day. Horrible and people in Florida need to do better.

It's spring break....