Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DisneyCane]

My business partner in his late 50s hadn't gotten vaccinated yet. I asked why and he said he'll do it when there aren't huge lines. Apparently he drives by a State/County site near his house and sees the line of cars.

I told him to go on the Publix site and make an appointment this morning for J&J. He got up early but Broward was out of appointments before he could book. He complained about it being a waste of time and he was upset that he had to get up early.

This is the more common "vaccine hesitancy."

 

[hopemax]

I interrupt this general COVID discussion, with news that the WDW Park Reservation system and ticket options is going to drive me insane.

I am finally going to visit my Dad on May 6th (Yay!). A friend, who is desperate for a Disney trip will also be fully vaccinated soon, and decided to book a trip to visit WDW over the 3rd weekend in May, while I am down there. She is able to stay at Shades of Green, but when the reservation was linked to MDE somehow it selected *ME* as the person with the reservation. She also has another SOG reservation for the 50th in Oct, which is correct.

My Dad and I normally use his Main Entrance Pass for admission, but given the circumstances of wanting to spend time with friend, and the unknowns on if he would be blocked out in May, we decided to just purchase 4 day tickets. Friend, has multiple tickets on her account. 4 day ticket for this trip, 7 day ticket for Oct, and 2 random old PH ticket days. She spent 2 hours on hold before talking to someone, last night, to make sure the ticket priority would be set correctly, so it would take this trip from her 4 day dated ticket, and not her 2 old PH days, nor mess up her Oct planning.

So we think we are ready to make the rest of our Park Reservations for May. Because of the order we bought tickets, I made mine first, and everything seemed fine but no availability for me at DHS. Then friend did hers, and now it shows us as a "Park party of 2." We went to do my Dad's this morning and he is showing up completely separate party from the 2 of us (but same days). He was also able to book a DHS reservation for the Friday we need. When I tried to book the 2 of us together it said our Park Reservation TYPE was different and we would have to book "one at a time."

I think what happened, is that MDE thinks I am a resort guest, since that's what it says. But I'm not. My friend, MDE thinks is a resort guest, not because of her May reservation but because of her Oct. reservation (?). My Dad is the only one who correctly shows up as a "Ticket Guest" and I guess there were still a couple of open reservations in the "Ticket Guess" park reservation bucket that allowed him to book DHS. I really would like one of those "onesie, twosies" and if this erroneous Resort guest listing is the thing that prevents me from getting one...

When I noticed the erroneous Resort issue, yesterday, friend said they would call and get it fixed, but that would change the "bucket" my park reservation should come from. So then what happens to my park Reservations (do they disappear?), her park reservations (should be fine?), or at the gate if we arrive and our reservation "bucket" doesn't match our reality (is this really only a thing if someone has an AP and booked as a Ticket Guest or vice versa and resort status doesn't really play in at all?) So now friend is probably going to end up on hold for hours again.

Are you confused yet?

 

[CaptainAmerica]

That article is old (data stops mid February) and already wrong. 19% of the US population is vaccinated and it’s April 7th, according to that graph we won’t get there until late April. We are getting vaccines faster and putting them in arms quicker, the slope of that graph should not be constant.

Did you miss where I literally said: This is old data so the numbers themselves aren't accurate anymore, but it illustrates the point.

The point I was making was simply that mitigation does not make the pandemic *shorter in duration.* Mitigation makes the pandemic *longer in duration but less severe.*

 

[Kevin_W]

What percentage of vaccination was Israel at when the plateau broke and then went down? Are we right around the same vaccination rate as that? I hope you're right in that we might be seeing a similar trend.

Hospitalization and death data never showed a plateau in Israel, so I'm suspicious that the plateau was some type of testing/data anomaly.

 

[GoofGoof]

My business partner in his late 50s hadn't gotten vaccinated yet. I asked why and he said he'll do it when there aren't huge lines. Apparently he drives by a State/County site near his house and sees the line of cars.

I told him to go on the Publix site and make an appointment this morning for J&J. He got up early but Broward was out of appointments before he could book. He complained about it being a waste of time and he was upset that he had to get up early.

This is the more common "vaccine hesitancy."

I think this is true for most. There are some true anti-vaxx and hard core political people who will resist for some other reasons but the majority how are hesitant are more indifferent and don’t want to be bothered. Many people in that category will just jump on the bandwagon of some other reason but they are passionate or committed to their decision. That’s why the government needs to start shifting from a push to a pull. We spent months just pushing out vaccine as fast as possible without too much concern for the inconvenience of getting an appointment because demand was so much higher than supply. The shift needs to be made to pull people in now. Make it easier (Which happens naturally as demand drops) and also maybe add some incentives. Whether the incentive is a stimulus check, a gift card or the relaxing of some restrictions for those who are fully vaccinated.

 

[GoofGoof]

Hospitalization and death data never showed a plateau in Israel, so I'm suspicious that the plateau was some type of testing/data anomaly.

They did start with the elderly and high risk similar to the US and the small plateau did come shortly after they relaxed a lot of Covid restrictions so similar to the US now, it could have been that younger people were driving the spread and just not getting as sick.

 

[Incomudro]

Did you miss where I literally said: This is old data so the numbers themselves aren't accurate anymore, but it illustrates the point.

The point I was making was simply that mitigation does not make the pandemic *shorter in duration.* Mitigation makes the pandemic *longer in duration but less severe.*

Which was the entire point of mitigation in the first place: So that the rate of infected people wouldn't occur at a pace that was too rapid fr the healthcare systems to handle.
Couple that with the hope that a vaccine would be produced before things got out of hand, which along with natural herd immunity might end the pandemic.
Fortunately, we've got a couple of highly effective vaccines in a much shorter period of time than may imagined was possible.

 

[mmascari]

If you told people "get the vaccine and you can snap your fingers like Thanos and your life can return to normal," vaccine hesitancy will go to zero overnight.

But, it would be wrong and would prolong the duration of the pandemic instead of ending it faster. Likewise, not getting the vaccine will also prolong the duration of the pandemic. Do people not want to end the pandemic faster?

That is incorrect and proves you have no idea what you're talking about.

You interpreted my my statement incorrectly, gave me a different opinion I didn't say, and then used that to say I was stupid. Nice.

What I said was "Using vaccine only and and no mitigations will prolong the duration of the pandemic vs continuing mitigations while also vaccinating people until community spread is reduced".

You even clipped the quoted part where I said "not getting the vaccine will prolong the pandemic too".

For the 1,001st time. Mitigations are tied to community spread. To slow the spread and prevent interactions between infected people and not infected people. Any one person's vaccinations status doesn't have anything to do with mitigations at the community level at all. No matter how much some people want to be invincible and venture out into a public setting with high community spread using no mitigations just because they are personally vaccinated.

	No Mitigations	Mitigations until spread is low
To little vaccination	Last much longer	Lasts Longer
Enough people vaccinated	Lasts Longer	Ends Fastest

I want people to move to the bottom right box. People opting for top right instead because they want of bottom left individually aren't helping anyone. They're just extending the time mitigations will still be around

 

[Incomudro]

Read the thread. It's not "mitigation forever even after vaccination" ---

It's: Herd immunity prevents new outbreaks from growing.
Thus, we need a combination of vaccination plus mitigation to end the current outbreak.
After the current outbreak ends, then we don't need mitigation -- we can rely on herd immunity to prevent further outbreaks.
And we aren't talking about years of mitigation -- talking about a few weeks, maybe a few months, depending on the level of compliance.

Vaccine hesitancy is largely caused by the same thing as mitigation resistance -- ignorance.

So yes, vaccination is indeed the key to ending mitigation. But it's not a switch you flick the moment an individual gets vaccinated.

And what's the answer to ignorance?
Education.
Unfortunately, I see a failure to get a good, clear, accurate and reasonable message out there to the vaccine hesitant.
(Vaccine hesitant being a different category than anti vaxers.)

 

[MisterPenguin]

NJ is in the top 8 states for first dose vaccinations (46% of adults) and the top three in utilizing vaccines shipped (88%). And cases had been spiking for almost 2 months.

But, in the past few days, cases are declining and hospitalizations plateauing.

 

[havoc315]

And what's the answer to ignorance?
Education.
Unfortunately, I see a failure to get a good, clear, accurate and reasonable message out there to the vaccine hesitant.
(Vaccine hesitant being a different category than anti vaxers.)

Technically, public health definitions include anti-vaxers under "vaccine hesitancy."

Though I agree with you: there are different categories including those that are "vaccine procrastinators" who are just putting it off but aren't against it, true "vaccine hesitators" who are more undecided, and the anti-vaxxers who believe it's all an evil government plot.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

You interpreted my my statement incorrectly, gave me a different opinion I didn't say, and then used that to say I was stupid. Nice.

What I said was "Using vaccine only and and no mitigations will prolong the duration of the pandemic vs continuing mitigations while also vaccinating people until community spread is reduced".

You even clipped the quoted part where I said "not getting the vaccine will prolong the pandemic too".

For the 1,001st time. Mitigations are tied to community spread. To slow the spread and prevent interactions between infected people and not infected people. Any one person's vaccinations status doesn't have anything to do with mitigations at the community level at all. No matter how much some people want to be invincible and venture out into a public setting with high community spread using no mitigations just because they are personally vaccinated.

	No Mitigations	Mitigations until spread is low
To little vaccination	Last much longer	Lasts Longer
Enough people vaccinated	Lasts Longer	Ends Fastest

I want people to move to the bottom right box. People opting for top right instead because they want of bottom left individually aren't helping anyone. They're just extending the time mitigations will still be around

What I'm telling you is that your chart is incorrect. It's backwards.

Mitigation makes the pandemic last longer. The "Ends Fastest" box would be under "No Mitigations" and "Enough People Vaccinated."

Abandoning mitigation would make the pandemic *more severe in the short term* but would make it shorter if you're talking strictly duration.

 

[mmascari]

Some people have been doing a lot of things that weren’t recommended by the CDC. There are people who felt July 4th was too soon as well. Maybe not you, but there were some.

As a prediction, July 4th could be both later than necessary and to soon, especially at the time it was made. So much depends on what happens between now and then and how people behave between now and then.

For some, they hear it as "July 4 and we're done and in the clear" and then extrapolate that to "it's almost July 4 now", even though its still 88 days away. If someone is internalizing that "it's almost July 4 now and it's over on July 4", they're likely to start dropping all mitigation efforts now. After all, to them, we might as well be done already. Throw in a little ignoring the news that we're not actually done yet. Unfortunately, that type of action is likely to make July 4 to aggressive a prediction and extend things.

For some, the hear it as "July 4, that's like forever in the future". For them, the reactions are different. Maybe the double down on preventive behavior. Maybe it feels so far out, they just give up trying to get there. Maybe someplace in the middle. All of those reactions in turn have an impact on if July 4 ends up being to late, to soon, or just right as a prediction.

Not matter which way it is, it's a good marketing target. Tied to a holiday nicely, and one that people can rally around. What we'll likely see is the end of May and early June, new predictions come out to refine it. Either we'll be right on track, or they'll be recasting a later date. It's just like the 100 days to X. Good marketing slogan, if not an actual plan.

On my personal feeling, I haven't booked the flights for our August trip yet, but I also haven't rescheduled the trip to a later date. Which I think means that I'm hopeful we'll have spread under control by then, but I'm still hedging and not convinced we will.

My business partner in his late 50s hadn't gotten vaccinated yet. I asked why and he said he'll do it when there aren't huge lines. Apparently he drives by a State/County site near his house and sees the line of cars.

I told him to go on the Publix site and make an appointment this morning for J&J. He got up early but Broward was out of appointments before he could book. He complained about it being a waste of time and he was upset that he had to get up early.

This is the more common "vaccine hesitancy."

Let's hope we can convert all of these over the course of May. I think May is going to tell us if there's to much hesitancy for us to vaccinate enough people or not. I'm guessing April will continue with demand outpacing supply in most places.

 

[mmascari]

What I'm telling you is that your chart is incorrect. It's backwards.

Mitigation makes the pandemic last longer. The "Ends Fastest" box would be under "No Mitigations" and "Enough People Vaccinated."

Abandoning mitigation would make the pandemic *more severe in the short term* but would make it shorter if you're talking strictly duration.

In that box, you never vaccinate people fast enough to outpace the spread. The "pandemic ends" because huge quantifies of people die at the same time an effective vaccine is available. It's not what I would call a return to normal and not what I think anyone means by ending. It also exerts selection pressure favoring variants the vaccines are less effective against. It's a lose lose scenario, not a return to normal pandemic ending.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

In that box, you never vaccinate people fast enough to outpace the spread. The "pandemic ends" because huge quantifies of people die at the same time an effective vaccine is available. It's not what I would call a return to normal and not what I think anyone means by ending. It also exerts selection pressure favoring variants the vaccines are less effective against. It's a lose lose scenario, not a return to normal pandemic ending.

The people most likely to die are *already* vaccinated. The primary downside of spread at this point will be that some people feel crappy for a few days.

The piece I think you're ignoring is the fact that the herd immunity threshold is based on natural immunity plus vax immunity. More cases means more natural immunity. More natural immunity plus more vax immunity is that FASTEST path to herd immunity.

(Again, I am *only* debating duration here, not severity.)

 

[Touchdown]

The people most likely to die are *already* vaccinated. The primary downside of spread at this point will be that some people feel crappy for a few days.

The piece I think you're ignoring is the fact that the herd immunity threshold is based on natural immunity plus vax immunity. More cases means more natural immunity. More natural immunity plus more vax immunity is that FASTEST path to herd immunity.

(Again, I am *only* debating duration here, not severity.)

The primary goal should be reducing infections, death is not the only bad endpoint. I’m not ok with just saying, who cares if young people get it? We are 1-2 months away from this thing being over right now irregardless.

 

[sullyinMT]

In that box, you never vaccinate people fast enough to outpace the spread. The "pandemic ends" because huge quantifies of people die at the same time an effective vaccine is available. It's not what I would call a return to normal and not what I think anyone means by ending. It also exerts selection pressure favoring variants the vaccines are less effective against. It's a lose lose scenario, not a return to normal pandemic ending.

This is the important message here. Yes, we can hope for the virus to “burn through” everyone else unvaccinated, but we’re not at a point to attempt that approach. Maybe somewhere like Israel (~80% of adults) or, to a lesser extent with fewer fully completed courses per capita the UK, are ready to peel back more fully and test this theory. Thing is, most locales here are already pretty open, so vaccinating quickly and trying to get people to understand the need for just a few more months of masks really is the best option for our American way of life.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

The primary goal should be reducing infections, death is not the only bad endpoint. I’m not ok with just saying, who cares if young people get it? We are 1-2 months away from this thing being over right now irregardless.

I feel like I'm talking to a brick wall.

(Again, I am *only* debating duration here, not severity.)

I made no claims about what the "primary goal" should or should not be. I did not say "this is the best path." All I said was "this is the FASTEST path."

 

[Touchdown]

I feel like I'm talking to a brick wall.


I made no claims about what the "primary goal" should or should not be. I did not say "this is the best path." All I said was "this is the FASTEST path."

If you’re going to go that route, then no it’s not the fastest route. A strategic nuclear strike to multiple sites around the world exterminating Covid by killing its hosts (humans) would kill the virus the fastest.

But much like the idea you brought up, this is unacceptable.

 

[DCBaker]

Here's the OS story on vaccines for Cast Members -

"The most magical place on Earth now has a COVID-19 vaccination site for its workforce.

Disney World confirmed Wednesday that a limited number of employees signed up for appointments and received the Pfizer vaccine this week at its health services clinic near Epcot. The clinic is not open to the general public and is for Disney employees only.

Disney did not say how many cast members have been vaccinated so far but added the site is hoping to get more shipments of the vaccine. Employees, working or furloughed, were notified by email about how to make appointments on a first-come, first-serve basis.

Disney said it was approached by Osceola County to help with vaccines. The theme park giant is located in Osceola and Orange counties.

“Sending a big thanks to our amazing Walt Disney World Health Services team as they provide Cast with another option to receive a COVID-19 vaccination,” his post said. “We are so pleased to help Central Florida in its continued fight to beat the virus! #GetTheShot.”

It’s intended to be another option for Disney employees to get vaccinated even as other large-scale vaccine sites at the Orange County Convention Center and Valencia College are in operation."

Disney World opens a vaccine site for its employees

The most magical place on Earth now has a COVID-19 vaccination site for its workforce. Disney World confirmed Wednesday that a limited number of employees signed up for appointments and received th…

www.orlandosentinel.com