The biggest closure to most of those porous arguments (particularly the extended mitigation one) is the action taken by CA and Orange County, FL recently to give a target date for opening in different respective degrees if the current course is stayed for a bit longer (or you encourage your friends to get the shot, too).
This is a caricature formed from being Very Online (which I'm guilty of myself).
There are different types and reasons of hesitancy. But even your description is again -- ignorance.
They are not. That twitter thread described why nicely too. Herd Immunity prevents an outbreak from exploding. It doesn't cause an existing outbreak to immediately end. It takes time and needs help to speed up the containment.
But, it would be wrong and would prolong the duration of the pandemic instead of ending it faster. Likewise, not getting the vaccine will also prolong the duration of the pandemic. Do people not want to end the pandemic faster?
See below on how this is a failure of longer term goals in favor of short term impacts that ends up being a net negative. Small short term gains in exchange for worse long term results.
So much this message needs more promotion.
While what you’re saying isn’t wrong epidemiologically, telling the people they’re ignorant and to just shut up and do it is never going to work for the masses. Again, even though things might change between now and June, giving the people of California a workable target is the massive carrot a lot of the legitimately hesitant (not the anti-vax) illustrated by @CaptainAmerica will need to get up off their proverbial couch and do the “hard” step of making an appointment and waiting in line.
To some, the type of language matters. When words like “that’s just ignorant,” are used, that’s an immediate mute button for the rest of the argument. It is what it is
If they paid attention, those same people would have heard all the message. If the current paces of vaccines and declining community spread continue. It’s a huge carrot, not a bludgeon to “continue forever mitigating.”
Which is why I put “hard” in quotes. Better local messaging to inform folks that it’s much easier now than mid-January is slowly helping in this regard. But we can do better. The idea that everyone is 15 minutes from a vaccine site is really misinformed, BTW.
Yes.
That is incorrect and proves you have no idea what you're talking about.
Oh gee, is that all it takes?
Some people have been doing a lot of things that weren’t recommended by the CDC. There are people who felt July 4th was too soon as well. Maybe not you, but there were some.
That article is old (data stops mid February) and already wrong. 19% of the US population is vaccinated and it’s April 7th, according to that graph we won’t get there until late April. We are getting vaccines faster and putting them in arms quicker, the slope of that graph should not be constant.That is incorrect and proves you have no idea what you're talking about.
Mitigation prolongs the duration of the pandemic. The argument has NEVER been "mitigation will end this sooner," the argument is "mitigation with end this in a longer period of time but with lower spikes." That's what "flatten the curve" means.
This is old data so the numbers themselves aren't accurate anymore, but it illustrates the point.
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When Could the United States Reach Herd Immunity? It’s Complicated. (Published 2021)
See how vaccines, distancing measures and the rise of coronavirus variants affect projections for herd immunity and when we might reach it.www.nytimes.com
It’s doing the same here as well and we are 60% 1 dose abd only 11% two doses - second doses going up faster now though so will be 20-30% at least by end of April
Yes. We are about a month to 6 weeks behind their pace so we are about where they were at the start of March which is when the cases started dropping again. no guarantee we follow the same curve but it’s a data point to look at and obviously would be a good outcome for us.
