Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Incomudro]

People do not conceptualize larger numbers very well. That this is even an example illustrates it well. The chance that someone 30-39 Years old catches COVID is many orders of magnitudes larger than the chance of someone of any age in the US even having a coconut fall on them.

Perhaps not in Hawaii, but then, they've got signs warning people to look out for falling coconuts and its an actual risk there. And even then, the risk of COVID is still orders of magnitude larger than death by coconut.

Of all the deaths of 30-39 Year old people in 2020, 5% of them involved COVID. So, sure, they may mostly be invincible and don't have to worry about dying at all. But for those who lost that lottery in 2020, 5% of those lost it with COVID. It's "only" 2.6% for 18-29 Year old, plus they know they're invincible.

With sample sizes this large, it's reckless to think of small percentages as if they were nothing. Especially when the impact is so severe.

References:

COVID-19 Provisional Counts - Weekly Updates by Select Demographic and Geographic Characteristics

Tabulated data on provisional COVID-19 deaths by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin, and comorbidities. Also includes an index of state-level and county-level mortality data available for download.

www.cdc.gov

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

covid.cdc.gov

It'd be helpful to know the overall health condition of those younger people who lost their loves to covid.
No doubt some healthy young people did, but what pecentage?
Young people have lifestyle related comorbidities, as well as genetic ones.

 

[Stitch826]

I keep seeing the topic of a vaccine passport at Disney being discussed here. Biden expects all adults to be able to receive their first round of vaccinations starting April 19. Optimistically, most people who choose to get the vaccine will be fully vaccinated by the Fourth of July (my guess). So why even bother with a vaccine passport? The chance of requiring hospitalization or death after being vaccinated is very slim. There is no reason for Disney to implement a vaccine passport. Hopefully by Independence Day, Disney eliminates masks and reduced park capacity. The Unions will have no ground to stand on regarding masks and social distancing once the employees have the opportunity to be vaccinated.

 

[GoofGoof]

I keep seeing the topic of a vaccine passport at Disney being discussed here. Biden expects all adults to be able to receive their first round of vaccinations starting April 19. Optimistically, most people who choose to get the vaccine will be fully vaccinated by the Fourth of July (my guess). So why even bother with a vaccine passport? The chance of requiring hospitalization or death after being vaccinated is very slim. There is no reason for Disney to implement a vaccine passport. Hopefully by Independence Day, Disney eliminates masks and reduced park capacity.

Exactly

 

[oceanbreeze77]

This is for ALL students

Brown University to begin requiring vaccines for students come fall

The university says it won't allow students on campus without the shots unless they qualify for an exemption.

www.providencejournal.com

 

[Animaniac93-98]

The US government already said they will not support a national vaccine passport system here. It could be implemented more locally by private businesses and proof of vaccination may be needed for International travel including cruises. I don’t see it becoming very widespread. Whether Disney wants to do it will be a business decision. It won’t be required by the government.

In the same way some countries require a visa for tourists or if you stay for more than 90 days, I could see the same being the case for vaccine passports. I agree the USA will not likely do this, but instead simply ban travel to/from hotspot countries as they are now.

 

[sullyinMT]

This is for ALL students

Brown University to begin requiring vaccines for students come fall

The university says it won't allow students on campus without the shots unless they qualify for an exemption.

www.providencejournal.com

I know you’re a big proponent of this type of thing. Honestly, in the congested and congregate setting of higher education, indeed education in general, I don’t disagree with the sentiment. But for countless reasons discussed as nauseum here, outside of international travel and visitors returning to our shores it is extremely unlikely to pass muster in regards to Disney. Not the least of which would be union agreements. Disney won’t require of their guests what they can’t of their employees. Regardless of what they believe personally, I don’t see a situation where Disney’s various employee unions (let alone ALL of them), capitulate said n this manner. Please let it rest.

 

[jpeden]

This is for ALL students

Brown University to begin requiring vaccines for students come fall

The university says it won't allow students on campus without the shots unless they qualify for an exemption.

www.providencejournal.com

Once again, not surprising. Colleges and Universities have almost always required students to be vaccinated for highly communicable diseases. The University for which I work (an R1, D1 school I would bet my paycheck you’ve heard of) requires the following vaccinations of all students regardless of residency in our out of dorms: MMR, Chicken Pox, Hep B, Tdap, and require a screening for TB. They strongly encourage Hep A, HPV, Flu, and Meningitis (and if you don’t have the meningitis shot, they require you to confirm you’ve read the information and opted out).

Requiring a vaccine for a highly communicable disease in an educational setting is vastly different than requiring one to go about your daily trip to the grocery store - they are not comparable.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Requiring a vaccine for a highly communicable disease in an educational setting is vastly different than requiring one to go about your daily trip to the grocery store - they are not comparable.

and neither is a grocery store and WDW.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

I know you’re a big proponent of this type of thing. Honestly, in the congested and congregate setting of higher education, indeed education in general, I don’t disagree with the sentiment. But for countless reasons discussed as nauseum here, outside of international travel and visitors returning to our shores it is extremely unlikely to pass muster in regards to Disney. Not the least of which would be union agreements. Disney won’t require of their guests what they can’t of their employees. Regardless of what they believe personally, I don’t see a situation where Disney’s various employee unions (let alone ALL of them), capitulate said n this manner. Please let it rest.

I'm a proponent of it for large venues. Theme parks, travel related things, concerts, sports, etc.

 

[GoofGoof]

Once again, not surprising. Colleges and Universities have almost always required students to be vaccinated for highly communicable diseases. The University for which I work (an R1, D1 school I would bet my paycheck you’ve heard of) requires the following vaccinations of all students regardless of residency in our out of dorms: MMR, Chicken Pox, Hep B, Tdap, and require a screening for TB. They strongly encourage Hep A, HPV, Flu, and Meningitis (and if you don’t have the meningitis shot, they require you to confirm you’ve read the information and opted out).

Requiring a vaccine for a highly communicable disease in an educational setting is vastly different than requiring one to go about your daily trip to the grocery store - they are not comparable.

One of the biggest differences is that unless you are Doogie Howser if you are in college you are over 16 so you qualify for a vaccine. They can require it of all students and just offer a medical exception for the handful of people who can’t get the vaccine (if there any at the school). For WDW having a vaccine passport requirement would make the parks 16+ for now and 12+ starting in May. Anyone under 12 would be banned from attending until kids get approved. I did see that one of the cruise lines is allowing for kids to show a negative Covid test instead. Works for a one time test when boarding the ship but how popular will week long Disney trips be if every morning you have to have someone shove a q-tip up your 4 year old’s nose and touch their brains. It’s way less practical. They could wait until kids are approved for the vaccine, but by then we hopefully won’t need it.

 

[sullyinMT]

I'm a proponent of it for large venues. Theme parks, travel related things, concerts, sports, etc.

Aside from theme parks, you won’t get an argument from me. The idea of 40k people at a Texas Rangers’ game is less jarring if they’re all vaccinated or recently tested (probably vaccinated hard stop, but the testing caveat is legally necessary). Too many good arguments against the passports exist for their feasibility in parks. Especially for the amount of time they’re likely to be necessary.

If they end up existing for international travel, and we get to a large majority vaccinated without passports in the US, domestic theme parks will naturally become very safe places to breathe on each other again.

 

[HarperRose]

With Psaki already saying today that the feds won't push a passport nor are they facilitating a database to maintain vaccine stats, you can put the concept to bed for the most part. The private sector won't build their own database for a multitude of reasons, #1 being cost. Never mind logistics. Without that, there's no reason to think Disney will push for such a thing.

My state has had a vaccine registry for years. Any vaccine given to any adult or child is entered into a database I can access at any time.

 

[havoc315]

This is 1 of the best explanations I’ve seen about the prospect of herd immunity, the need for more mitigation for a period of time even after herd immunity and the danger of vaccine hesitancy.

 

[Bullseye1967]

They don't have complete data to deem them all breakthrough cases yet either. An unknown number will be ruled out due to no negative PCR after initial infection prior to 45 days of vaccination.

Even if they don't rule the one out, 2 were not fully vaccinated.


The MDHHS said the three people who died were all 65 years or older, and two of the three were within three weeks of completing their vaccine.

And lets focus on the actual odds of being fully vaccinated, catching COVID and dying.

The state's COVID-19 dashboard shows that more than 4.7 million doses have been administered and 2,958,158 Michiganders have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19. That means .008315985% of people vaccinated have caught COVID-19 and .000101414% of people have died after being vaccinated.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Hoping this isn’t considered political, if it is feel free to remove. Just want to share this.

I guess I shouldn’t be surprised but... it certainly shocks me as a Canadian neighbour.



I hope this can be amended so the US is able to share with the rest of the world who also needs vaccines.

 

[Bullseye1967]

Hoping this isn’t considered political, if it is feel free to remove. Just want to share this.

I guess I shouldn’t be surprised but... it certainly shocks me as a Canadian neighbour.



I hope this can be amended so the US is able to share with the rest of the world who also needs vaccines.

Soooo this flags so many things in my brain I may have to take a moment to collect myself. Let me tell all of you how I (and hopefully anyone of you) deal with something like this.

1. Who is the source?

I had never heard of him so I looked him up . I got this:

Eric Liang Feigl-Ding is an American public health scientist who is currently a Senior Fellow at the Federation of American Scientists in Washington DC

Ok that tell me nothing. Especially "public health scientist" Is that really a job? So who is Federation of American Scientists I have never heard of them so I look them up based on their political leanings. On a google search I get two main results:

When I look on a fairly center left media checking sight I get:

Overall, we rate The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) a Pro-science source based on sourcing and alignment with the consensus.

When I look at fairly center right media checking sight get:

Federation of American Scientists media bias rating is Lean Very Left.​

OK that gets me no where, one thinks they are legit and the other thinks they are biased.

So I go to Vanity Fair, the source of the information, always my favorite science based site. Didn't they used to be lingerie clad models walking the runway and a survey about how to be better in bed ten years ago?

So I check the left center fact check site on Vanity fair and it tells me:

Overall, we rate Vanity Fair Left Biased based on editorial positions that always favor the left and sometimes factual in reporting, due to failed fact checks. Their zeal to spin an article to their liking often finds the results wanting.

Then I check the center right Media Bias site:

Vanity Fair media bias rating is Lean Very Left.​

Ok so both sides agree that Vanity Fair is left leaning and an anti Trump story is what they like.

Then I go to current facts as I can see them and stories to back them up:

U.S. to share 4 million doses of AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine with Mexico, Canada

The United States plans to send roughly 4 million doses of AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine that it is not using to Mexico and Canada in loan deals with the two countries, yielding to requests to share vaccines with allies.

www.reuters.com

Biden Takes First Jab At Vaccine Diplomacy, Sharing Doses With Mexico, Canada

The United States will loan millions of doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine — not yet approved for emergency U.S. use — to its closest neighbors.

www.npr.org

US to send 4m AstraZeneca vaccine doses to Mexico and Canada

Biden administration has come under pressure to share vaccine, which has been authorized in other countries but not yet in US

www.theguardian.com

I did find it interesting that all of the articles said "share or loan" the jabs to those countries and maybe under contracts they couldn't be "sold" I just don't know.

I do know two things:

1. If we announce we were giving all these AZ doses which we do not need to other countries and it fell through because of some deal the Trump administration had made it would be front page on every news source in the US. These articles are three weeks old. and other than Vanity Fair (which I am sure we all consider a better news source than the AP or BBC) we have heard nothing.

2. Just because some posts a tweet or an article to support some thing, unless you 100% trust that source, you need to investigate to see if you do.

Do I think those vials were given, loaned or shared with Mexico and Canada? Absolutely!!! If not we would have heard of it, and if we couldn't have done it then the current administration would have never announced it.

 

[pixie225]

Once again, not surprising. Colleges and Universities have almost always required students to be vaccinated for highly communicable diseases. The University for which I work (an R1, D1 school I would bet my paycheck you’ve heard of) requires the following vaccinations of all students regardless of residency in our out of dorms: MMR, Chicken Pox, Hep B, Tdap, and require a screening for TB. They strongly encourage Hep A, HPV, Flu, and Meningitis (and if you don’t have the meningitis shot, they require you to confirm you’ve read the information and opted out).

Requiring a vaccine for a highly communicable disease in an educational setting is vastly different than requiring one to go about your daily trip to the grocery store - they are not comparable.

Agree with your last statement. Literally just got an email - Northeastern University (Boston) is requiring all students to be vaccinated by the start of class in September. (nephew goes there) Some NY colleges have also mandated covid vaccines before starting classes. I know one college (Stony Brook on Long Island) that vaccinated 1400 student residents in one day last week. Good job!

 

[seascape]

I am going to start with the good news. The US is now down to 19.32 cases per 100,000. Even better California is lifting all restrictions starting June 15 so Disneyland can be back to normal.
Regrettably Florida went up to 26. Michigan is still leading tye US by a wide margin with 67 followed by NJ with 46 and NY at 39. Just those 3 states have a daily average of 18,343 which is 28.29% of all the US cases. Anyway, the drop today of US cases is hopefully the start of our next drop. The US has partially vaccinated over 33% of the population and fully vaccinated 19%. Add in those who recovered from Covid19 and it is obvious we will get to herd immunity soon. With 24 days left in April it means everyone who has already taken Pfizer's vaccine will be fully vaccinated and almost all those who have taken Moderna's. Therefore, we should be over 50% of the US population fully protected by the end of the month if we include those with natural immunity due to recovery from Covid19. Expect the numbers to drop significantly as the days move on.

 

[pixie225]

I am going to start with the good news. The US is now down to 19.32 cases per 100,000. Even better California is lifting all restrictions starting June 15 so Disneyland can be back to normal.
Regrettably Florida went up to 26. Michigan is still leading tye US by a wide margin with 67 followed by NJ with 46 and NY at 39. Just those 3 states have a daily average of 18,343 which is 28.29% of all the US cases. Anyway, the drop today of US cases is hopefully the start of our next drop. The US has partially vaccinated over 33% of the population and fully vaccinated 19%. Add in those who recovered from Covid19 and it is obvious we will get to herd immunity soon. With 24 days left in April it means everyone who has already taken Pfizer's vaccine will be fully vaccinated and almost all those who have taken Moderna's. Therefore, we should be over 50% of the US population fully protected by the end of the month if we include those with natural immunity due to recovery from Covid19. Expect the numbers to drop significantly as the days move on.

Piggybacking on your post- nearly 1/2 of new virus infections are in these 5 states https://www.aol.com/news/nearly-half-us-virus-infections-194227189-090742645.html

 

[DCBaker]

"The University of Oxford said on Tuesday it had paused a small UK trial testing the COVID-19 vaccine it developed with AstraZeneca Plc in children and teenagers, as it waits for more data on rare blood clotting issues in adults who received the shot.

The trial disruption is the latest blow to the vaccine, once hailed as a milestone in the fight against the pandemic, after several countries restricted its use in light of reports of medical issues after inoculations.

There were no safety concerns in the pediatric trial, Oxford University said, adding that it would await guidance from the UK drugs watchdog before giving any further vaccinations."

Oxford pauses COVID-19 vaccine study in kids, awaits more data on blood clot issues

The University of Oxford said on Tuesday it had paused a small UK trial testing the COVID-19 vaccine it developed with AstraZeneca Plc in children and teenagers, as it waits for more data on rare blood clotting issues in adults who received the shot.

www.reuters.com