Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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mmascari

Well-Known Member
GoofGoof said:
In Michigan 246 positives out of 2.0M people fully vaccinated. 0.01% of the people vaccinated tested positive. Of the 8M people in Michigan who were not fully vaccinated 209,594 tested positive since 1/1 or 2.61% of the unvaccinated group. Since the “virtual placebo group“ of unvaccinated people is 4X as large it would be the equipment of 52,400 infections in the placebo group adjusted for size. So 246 vs 52,400. That’s a very high 90s efficacy for the vaccine. I know the math isn’t exact because not all 2M people were vaccinated for the full 3 months but you get the idea.

On deaths 3 people out of the 2M who were vaccinated died. If we extrapolate that death rate out to the full US population and pretend everyone was fully vaccinated it would be around 500 deaths over the 3 months. Back in the real world where the whole population wasn’t fully vaccinated 201,421 Americans died in the same 3 months. This really shows how effective the vaccines have been in real world practice. As each state releases data we keep getting more support for how remarkable and how effective these vaccines are.
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Imagine how much better it'll be when those vaccinated people aren't wondering around interacting with all those infected people.

If I followed your math, 209,594 positive cases over 10M people, 2% of them positive. Drive that vaccine number up, which will drive that infected and infectible count down. Reduce the chance that anyone vaccinated will ever run into an infected person, much less multiple infected people. The few that still do will vastly limit spread and that number of positive anyway will get even lower.
 
GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
mmascari said:
Imagine how much better it'll be when those vaccinated people aren't wondering around interacting with all those infected people.

If I followed your math, 209,594 positive cases over 10M people, 2% of them positive. Drive that vaccine number up, which will drive that infected and infectible count down. Reduce the chance that anyone vaccinated will ever run into an infected person, much less multiple infected people. The few that still do will vastly limit spread and that number of positive anyway will get even lower.
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Totally true.
 
Turtlekrawl

Turtlekrawl

Well-Known Member
GoofGoof said:
I got the number vaccinated wrong so it’s even better :)
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No you were closer to correct. The data goes up until 3/31. So in order for someone to be 14 days post 2nd dose, they would have had to have 2nd dose by 3/17. Nowhere near 3M Michigan residents had 2nd dose by then.

But whatever. I don’t disagree with any of the conclusions here. Just posting some “news.”
 
Patcheslee

Patcheslee

Well-Known Member
Jrb1979

Jrb1979

Well-Known Member
GoofGoof said:
Why would Disney want to go to war with a Governor to push for a policy that will alienate a portion of their customers as well? From a business prospective it makes much more sense for them to just wait until the Covid restrictions can be removed overall without a vaccine passport. That is by far the better plan for Disney. Vaccine passports are a plan B which only matters if the vaccine rollout fails. They won’t require a vaccine passport before children are eligible for the vaccine so Fall or Winter at the earliest. Hopefully they won’t be needed by then.
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Don't be so quick to deny vaccine passports happening. Looks like many countries are talking about it for use for travel. The more it picks up steam the more I see it being implemented in many places.

Canada ‘monitoring evidence’ as global support for vaccine passports grows - National | Globalnews.ca

Trudeau said Canada is reckoning with its own considerations about a COVID-19 passport and rules for fully vaccinated people but will rely on real-world evidence.
globalnews.ca globalnews.ca
 
GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Jrb1979 said:
Don't be so quick to deny vaccine passports happening. Looks like many countries are talking about it for use for travel. The more it picks up steam the more I see it being implemented in many places.

Canada ‘monitoring evidence’ as global support for vaccine passports grows - National | Globalnews.ca

Trudeau said Canada is reckoning with its own considerations about a COVID-19 passport and rules for fully vaccinated people but will rely on real-world evidence.
globalnews.ca globalnews.ca
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The US government already said they will not support a national vaccine passport system here. It could be implemented more locally by private businesses and proof of vaccination may be needed for International travel including cruises. I don’t see it becoming very widespread. Whether Disney wants to do it will be a business decision. It won’t be required by the government.
 
sullyinMT

sullyinMT

Well-Known Member
Jrb1979 said:
Don't be so quick to deny vaccine passports happening. Looks like many countries are talking about it for use for travel. The more it picks up steam the more I see it being implemented in many places.

Canada ‘monitoring evidence’ as global support for vaccine passports grows - National | Globalnews.ca

Trudeau said Canada is reckoning with its own considerations about a COVID-19 passport and rules for fully vaccinated people but will rely on real-world evidence.
globalnews.ca globalnews.ca
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Again, though, this is for international travel requirements or one-off events. There’s probably support for that, even in the US. I know I can’t be alone in feeling safer at a hypothetically vaccinated Ohio Stadium this fall. That’s different than vaccine passports for everything from gyms to restaurants and bars. Whether there is appetite for this kind of thing to get in to WDW is a different animal altogether.
 
correcaminos

correcaminos

Well-Known Member
DisneyFan32 said:
Soon we're getting boosters for vaccines to stop variants by late summer.
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Not soon. Only a very tiny portion of people in the trials are getting them to test. Even the phase 2/3 group isn't being called in. The idea is they will be there if needed. But right now they don't think they will be.
sullivan.kscott said:
Again, though, this is for international travel requirements or one-off events. There’s probably support for that, even in the US. I know I can’t be alone in feeling safer at a hypothetically vaccinated Ohio Stadium this fall. That’s different than vaccine passports for everything from gyms to restaurants and bars. Whether there is appetite for this kind of thing to get in to WDW is a different animal altogether.
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Couldn't resist... go bucks!
 
J

jpeden

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
No
oceanbreeze77 said:
Anotha one.

CSULB requiring vaccines for on-campus residents for fall 2021 – Long Beach Current

daily49er.com daily49er.com
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As someone who works in higher ed, this is significantly different than requiring a “vaccine passport” for daily life. Colleges have always for the most part required students to be vaccinated for highly communicable diseases as a requirement to live in on-campus residences (such as Hep B, Meningitis, TB, etc.).

Massive difference IMO between this and saying “you have to show your vaccine passport to go into Publix or attend this concert or eat in this restaurant.”
 
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GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
jpeden said:
As someone who works in higher ed, this is significantly different than requiring a “vaccine passport” for daily life. Colleges have always for the most part required students to be vaccinated for highly communicable diseases as a requirement to live in on-campus residences (such as Hep B, Mono, etc.).

Massive difference IMO between this and saying “you have to show your vaccine passport to go into Publix or attend this concert or eat in this restaurant.”
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Do they have a mono vaccine now too? I could have used that one. Lost a month of quality party time in college. I had the chicken pox too naturally. Kids today really do have it easy ;)
 
correcaminos

correcaminos

Well-Known Member
GoofGoof said:
Do they have a mono vaccine now too? I could have used that one. Lost a month of quality party time in college. I had the chicken pox too naturally. Kids today really do have it easy ;)
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I'm in my 40s. I never had chicken pox (or mono, or strep or.....) guess why my kid is vaccinated against chicken pox? I'm actually a weird anomaly when it comes to health stuff as I have never taken an oral antibiotic either. Maybe I was a snowflake before my snowflake was even thought of existing.....
 
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