Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[mmascari]

In Michigan 246 positives out of 2.0M people fully vaccinated. 0.01% of the people vaccinated tested positive. Of the 8M people in Michigan who were not fully vaccinated 209,594 tested positive since 1/1 or 2.61% of the unvaccinated group. Since the “virtual placebo group“ of unvaccinated people is 4X as large it would be the equipment of 52,400 infections in the placebo group adjusted for size. So 246 vs 52,400. That’s a very high 90s efficacy for the vaccine. I know the math isn’t exact because not all 2M people were vaccinated for the full 3 months but you get the idea.

On deaths 3 people out of the 2M who were vaccinated died. If we extrapolate that death rate out to the full US population and pretend everyone was fully vaccinated it would be around 500 deaths over the 3 months. Back in the real world where the whole population wasn’t fully vaccinated 201,421 Americans died in the same 3 months. This really shows how effective the vaccines have been in real world practice. As each state releases data we keep getting more support for how remarkable and how effective these vaccines are.

Imagine how much better it'll be when those vaccinated people aren't wondering around interacting with all those infected people.

If I followed your math, 209,594 positive cases over 10M people, 2% of them positive. Drive that vaccine number up, which will drive that infected and infectible count down. Reduce the chance that anyone vaccinated will ever run into an infected person, much less multiple infected people. The few that still do will vastly limit spread and that number of positive anyway will get even lower.

 

[GoofGoof]

While I disagree with your tally of fully vaccinated individuals (@GoofGoof got it right), your point is that it is a minuscule number. Agree. Hopefully it stays that way.

I’m looking at this as an evolving situation, not one that is worrisome at the moment.

I see it as really great news. The vaccines are showing to be as effective or more effective in the real world.

 

[GoofGoof]

Imagine how much better it'll be when those vaccinated people aren't wondering around interacting with all those infected people.

If I followed your math, 209,594 positive cases over 10M people, 2% of them positive. Drive that vaccine number up, which will drive that infected and infectible count down. Reduce the chance that anyone vaccinated will ever run into an infected person, much less multiple infected people. The few that still do will vastly limit spread and that number of positive anyway will get even lower.

Totally true.

 

[Turtlekrawl]

I got the number vaccinated wrong so it’s even better

No you were closer to correct. The data goes up until 3/31. So in order for someone to be 14 days post 2nd dose, they would have had to have 2nd dose by 3/17. Nowhere near 3M Michigan residents had 2nd dose by then.

But whatever. I don’t disagree with any of the conclusions here. Just posting some “news.”

 

[Patcheslee]

Same story different source.

Of nearly 3M Michiganders vaccinated, 246 contracted COVID-19 & 3 died - https://www.fox17online.com/news/co...ers-vaccinated-246-contracted-covid-19-3-died

They don't have complete data to deem them all breakthrough cases yet either. An unknown number will be ruled out due to no negative PCR after initial infection prior to 45 days of vaccination.

 

[DisneyFan32]

is NJ will may loosing mask mandate or masks and social distancing by July?

 

[danlb_2000]

is NJ will may loosing mask mandate or masks and social distancing by July?

We don't know.

 

[DisneyFan32]

Soon we're getting boosters for vaccines to stop variants by late summer.

 

[Jrb1979]

Why would Disney want to go to war with a Governor to push for a policy that will alienate a portion of their customers as well? From a business prospective it makes much more sense for them to just wait until the Covid restrictions can be removed overall without a vaccine passport. That is by far the better plan for Disney. Vaccine passports are a plan B which only matters if the vaccine rollout fails. They won’t require a vaccine passport before children are eligible for the vaccine so Fall or Winter at the earliest. Hopefully they won’t be needed by then.

Don't be so quick to deny vaccine passports happening. Looks like many countries are talking about it for use for travel. The more it picks up steam the more I see it being implemented in many places.

Canada ‘monitoring evidence’ as global support for vaccine passports grows - National | Globalnews.ca

Trudeau said Canada is reckoning with its own considerations about a COVID-19 passport and rules for fully vaccinated people but will rely on real-world evidence.

globalnews.ca

 

[DisneyFan32]

So in other news...big news for disneyland

I hope mask mandate will be lift by July or August soon.

 

[GoofGoof]

Don't be so quick to deny vaccine passports happening. Looks like many countries are talking about it for use for travel. The more it picks up steam the more I see it being implemented in many places.

Canada ‘monitoring evidence’ as global support for vaccine passports grows - National | Globalnews.ca

Trudeau said Canada is reckoning with its own considerations about a COVID-19 passport and rules for fully vaccinated people but will rely on real-world evidence.

globalnews.ca

The US government already said they will not support a national vaccine passport system here. It could be implemented more locally by private businesses and proof of vaccination may be needed for International travel including cruises. I don’t see it becoming very widespread. Whether Disney wants to do it will be a business decision. It won’t be required by the government.

 

[sullyinMT]

Don't be so quick to deny vaccine passports happening. Looks like many countries are talking about it for use for travel. The more it picks up steam the more I see it being implemented in many places.

Canada ‘monitoring evidence’ as global support for vaccine passports grows - National | Globalnews.ca

Trudeau said Canada is reckoning with its own considerations about a COVID-19 passport and rules for fully vaccinated people but will rely on real-world evidence.

globalnews.ca

Again, though, this is for international travel requirements or one-off events. There’s probably support for that, even in the US. I know I can’t be alone in feeling safer at a hypothetically vaccinated Ohio Stadium this fall. That’s different than vaccine passports for everything from gyms to restaurants and bars. Whether there is appetite for this kind of thing to get in to WDW is a different animal altogether.

 

[correcaminos]

Soon we're getting boosters for vaccines to stop variants by late summer.

Not soon. Only a very tiny portion of people in the trials are getting them to test. Even the phase 2/3 group isn't being called in. The idea is they will be there if needed. But right now they don't think they will be.

Again, though, this is for international travel requirements or one-off events. There’s probably support for that, even in the US. I know I can’t be alone in feeling safer at a hypothetically vaccinated Ohio Stadium this fall. That’s different than vaccine passports for everything from gyms to restaurants and bars. Whether there is appetite for this kind of thing to get in to WDW is a different animal altogether.

Couldn't resist... go bucks!

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Anotha one.

CSULB requiring vaccines for on-campus residents for fall 2021

Long Beach State has announced that students living in the dorms must show proof of a CDC-approved vaccine, according to Housing and Residential Life.

daily49er.com

 

[jpeden]

Anotha one.

CSULB requiring vaccines for on-campus residents for fall 2021

Long Beach State has announced that students living in the dorms must show proof of a CDC-approved vaccine, according to Housing and Residential Life.

daily49er.com

As someone who works in higher ed, this is significantly different than requiring a “vaccine passport” for daily life. Colleges have always for the most part required students to be vaccinated for highly communicable diseases as a requirement to live in on-campus residences (such as Hep B, Meningitis, TB, etc.).

Massive difference IMO between this and saying “you have to show your vaccine passport to go into Publix or attend this concert or eat in this restaurant.”

 

[GoofGoof]

As someone who works in higher ed, this is significantly different than requiring a “vaccine passport” for daily life. Colleges have always for the most part required students to be vaccinated for highly communicable diseases as a requirement to live in on-campus residences (such as Hep B, Mono, etc.).

Massive difference IMO between this and saying “you have to show your vaccine passport to go into Publix or attend this concert or eat in this restaurant.”

Do they have a mono vaccine now too? I could have used that one. Lost a month of quality party time in college. I had the chicken pox too naturally. Kids today really do have it easy

 

[jpeden]

Do they have a mono vaccine now too? I could have used that one. Lost a month of quality party time in college. I had the chicken pox too naturally. Kids today really do have it easy

I apparently am getting that mixed up with Meningitis...I’ll edit. You are correct there is no Mono vaccine

 

[correcaminos]

Do they have a mono vaccine now too? I could have used that one. Lost a month of quality party time in college. I had the chicken pox too naturally. Kids today really do have it easy

I'm in my 40s. I never had chicken pox (or mono, or strep or.....) guess why my kid is vaccinated against chicken pox? I'm actually a weird anomaly when it comes to health stuff as I have never taken an oral antibiotic either. Maybe I was a snowflake before my snowflake was even thought of existing.....

 

[GoofGoof]

I apparently am getting that mixed up with Meningitis...I’ll edit. You are correct there is no Mono vaccine

Well someone needs to get on that one because it was no fun and takes forever to get over.

 

[Incomudro]

People do not conceptualize larger numbers very well. That this is even an example illustrates it well. The chance that someone 30-39 Years old catches COVID is many orders of magnitudes larger than the chance of someone of any age in the US even having a coconut fall on them.

Perhaps not in Hawaii, but then, they've got signs warning people to look out for falling coconuts and its an actual risk there. And even then, the risk of COVID is still orders of magnitude larger than death by coconut.

Of all the deaths of 30-39 Year old people in 2020, 5% of them involved COVID. So, sure, they may mostly be invincible and don't have to worry about dying at all. But for those who lost that lottery in 2020, 5% of those lost it with COVID. It's "only" 2.6% for 18-29 Year old, plus they know they're invincible.

With sample sizes this large, it's reckless to think of small percentages as if they were nothing. Especially when the impact is so severe.

References:

COVID-19 Provisional Counts - Weekly Updates by Select Demographic and Geographic Characteristics

Tabulated data on provisional COVID-19 deaths by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin, and comorbidities. Also includes an index of state-level and county-level mortality data available for download.

www.cdc.gov

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

covid.cdc.gov

It'd be helpful to know the overall health condition of those younger people who lost their loves to covid.
No doubt some healthy young people did, but what pecentage?
Young people have lifestyle related comorbidities, as well as genetic ones.