Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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GoofGoof

Premium Member
I was about to post the Israel numbers myself. I agree with everything you said..

And remember... these Israel numbers are still NOT herd immunity. Unfortunately, they are starting to encounter vaccine hesitancy in Israel. But if they do manage to push up vaccines a bit higher, and continue mitigation a bit longer, their numbers will go even lower. Debatable whether they will actually ever reach herd immunity, but we are seeing how low cases can go even if a bit shy of actual herd immunity.

One tiny footnote for Israel -- watch carefully over the next 2-3 weeks. They are celebrating Passover now, much like Thanksgiving here. Will they see a bit of a spike? Whatever they see in connection with Passover, should give us a sense of Memorial Day and July 4th type effects.
Purely guessing -- Israel may see a temporary bump up, but nothing like their past big surges.
Technically they have reached herd immunity in the short term. The technical definition of herd immunity is an r0 of less than 1 and they have been below 1 since mid-Febrauary. That doesn’t mean they won’t see an uptick here and there. The goal of true, long term herd immunity is a continuous decline in numbers down to near zero or zero. They aren’t there yet, but heading in the right direction.
 

Jrb1979

Well-Known Member
The government should not require vaccine passports for anything. That should be a decision for businesses. In the case of airlines, they are open today and have been open throughout the pandemic without people being vaccinated, same as Disney. They have other mitigations in place. If they want to remove the other mitigations they should be allowed to do so by implementing a vaccine passport requirement. Then you can have flights or Disney parks with no masks or distancing. It’s up to the business to decide which way works for them. In certain cases like International flights, cruises and large concert venues it may be that the only practical way to be open is with a vaccine passport and/or proof of negative test. I still don’t think the government should mandate it. In those cases it’s either jump through that hoop, do some other impractical mitigation measures or stay closed.

In the case of NY Mets and Yankees baseball the teams both said that their system is temporary until the cases drop low enough that it isn’t necessary. In other words don’t assume that will still be going on in August or maybe even June.
It's temporary til it becomes permanent. I think more private businesses will require it then you think. It's not just going to disappear cause the majority are vaccinated.
 

ABQ

Well-Known Member
Technically they have reached herd immunity in the short term. The technical definition of herd immunity is an r0 of less than 1 and they have been below 1 since mid-Febrauary. That doesn’t mean they won’t see an uptick here and there. The goal of true, long term herd immunity is a continuous decline in numbers down to near zero or zero. They aren’t there yet, but heading in the right direction.
Do you have any insight into what the nation of Portugal has done to mitigate the virus? Was just looking at Israel and the Portugal case count is right behind them and their daily rate is even lower.
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They have approx the same population. 9 mill:10 mill. Media makes Europe sound so bad, but this nation certainly belies that.
 

GimpYancIent

Well-Known Member
The government should not require vaccine passports for anything. That should be a decision for businesses. In the case of airlines, they are open today and have been open throughout the pandemic without people being vaccinated, same as Disney. They have other mitigations in place. If they want to remove the other mitigations they should be allowed to do so by implementing a vaccine passport requirement. Then you can have flights or Disney parks with no masks or distancing. It’s up to the business to decide which way works for them. In certain cases like International flights, cruises and large concert venues it may be that the only practical way to be open is with a vaccine passport and/or proof of negative test. I still don’t think the government should mandate it. In those cases it’s either jump through that hoop, do some other impractical mitigation measures or stay closed.

In the case of NY Mets and Yankees baseball the teams both said that their system is temporary until the cases drop low enough that it isn’t necessary. In other words don’t assume that will still be going on in August or maybe even June.
Businesses will do what each needs to do to survive. Each business caters to its clientele and target audience and know it is suicide to do things that endanger their audience. The businesses that want to survive and thrive will work to provide an attractive and safe environment for their guests / clientele. The vaccine passport thing is a bit much as means to corroborate vaccination exist, do not need more bureaucracy. I am sure, as exampled by WDW, the correct things will be done without over bearing government directives. In the case of MLB all the teams have different protocols I am sure as the season progresses modifications will occur to the most successful, efficient and beneficial procedures. I see the Yankees and Mets walking back their procedures. International travel is a beast that involves way more (on multiple levels) than good common sense business practices because multiple governments are involved already.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
It's temporary til it becomes permanent. I think more private businesses will require it then you think. It's not just going to disappear cause the majority are vaccinated.
Businesses aren't going to do things to discourage customers. A retail store, for example, would rather leave the distancing and other protocols in place than require proof of vaccination to shop.

The exceptions would be movie theatres or other venues in states that give them an option of either operate at reduced capacity or require proof of vaccination. They can't be profitable at the reduced capacity so being able to bring in more people (even if they turn off some customers) will make sense.
 

Dan Deesnee

Well-Known Member
It's temporary til it becomes permanent. I think more private businesses will require it then you think. It's not just going to disappear cause the majority are vaccinated.

Terrifying thought indeed. Imagine how much further that could be taken (read, more draconian). Bought tickets to a sporting event, show up feeling fine, but the temp scanning machine that is constantly sweeping the crowds to identify anyone with a fever tags you. Next thing you know you are being told you and your family have to leave (no refund, likely).

Sounds like a great big beautiful tomorrow!
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
So the choice is to either play by your rules or not play at all?

Can't the same be said for you? You have a choice, either stay home where it's safe or go out and assume the risk?

Yes --- Play by THE rules, not my rules.
If you want to drive a car -- It must be insured, you must get a license, you must obey the speed limit, etc.
If you want to fly on a plane -- You must go through security, you must have proper identification, you must be vaccinated, etc...

There are rules. Having rules does not make us the same as Nazi Europe.
 
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Dan Deesnee

Well-Known Member
Yes --- Pay bu THE rules, not my rules.
If you want to drive a car -- It must be insured, you must get a license, you must obey the speed limit, etc.
If you want to fly on a plane -- You must go through security, you must have proper identification, you must be vaccinated, etc...

There are rules. Having rules does not make us the same as Nazi Europe.

Terrible comparisons. None of those involve putting something into your body that you don't want there. You point out minor (and often one time) inconveniences. You can also jump in a car and drive wherever you want, obeying speed limits, and not have insurance or a license. I have been driving for decades and have (thank God) never been pulled over or in an accident (though I've seen plenty).

The frog boils slowly.
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
Technically they have reached herd immunity in the short term. The technical definition of herd immunity is an r0 of less than 1 and they have been below 1 since mid-Febrauary. That doesn’t mean they won’t see an uptick here and there. The goal of true, long term herd immunity is a continuous decline in numbers down to near zero or zero. They aren’t there yet, but heading in the right direction.

That's not the technical definition of herd immunity. We have had many months of R0 under 1 in the US.

Consistent use of masking gives us a R0 under 1 in the US, it's not herd immunity.

I posted an article the other day from Haaretz (Israeli newspaper), interviewing their scientists and public health officials-- they don't actually expect to reach herd immunity.

That said -- as shown, the numbers can get very very low even without herd immunity.
 

TrainsOfDisney

Well-Known Member
Yup! I'm one of those weirdos who (/checks notes) doesn't want to force my beliefs on you!

It's almost like I lived by a self-imposed lockdown because my wife was pregnant and my grandmother was going through chemo treatment, despite the fact that I fell into a demo that was essentially not a risk, because I'm an adult and have the capacity to make those decisions.

Now, those decisions don't come without consequences, like clinical depression and certain other things because of living on a self-imposed house arrest.

Crazy that I don't want to enforce that upon other people. It's so humane.
Nobody is saying other people should live on house-arrest.

Yesterday I put a mask on, went into my coffee shop, bought coffee, and took it outside and enjoyed it. Why is that so difficult for people!?!?!?
 

Chip Chipperson

Well-Known Member
It's looking like we may need a third, reformulated jab of the mRNA vaccines if we want to keep the South African variant at bay. But at least it looks like we're in good shape with the UK and Brazilian strains.


As usual with Medscape, avoid the unmoderated garbage-fire dump comment section. A lot of those posters who claim to be physicians are clearly not, or at least, they're not practicing within the established guidelines.

Am I reading that table correctly by assuming the -8.6 for Moderna vs. the South African variant is saying they believe it would still be approximately 85% effective against that particular variant? If so, that's not too bad for a variant that wasn't known to exist when the vaccine was developed.
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
Terrible comparisons. None of those involve putting something into your body that you don't want there. You point out minor (and often one time) inconveniences. You can also jump in a car and drive wherever you want, obeying speed limits, and not have insurance or a license.

The frog boils slowly.

No, if you drive without insurance or license, you are COMMITTING A CRIME.

And guess what... in every state in the United States, kids must be vaccinated to attend schools. In order to enter the United States or many other countries, you need to show proof of certain vaccinations.

So putting vaccines into your body is not new. It's been a requirement for decades.
 

disneygeek90

Well-Known Member
Terrible comparisons. None of those involve putting something into your body that you don't want there. You point out minor (and often one time) inconveniences. You can also jump in a car and drive wherever you want, obeying speed limits, and not have insurance or a license. I have been driving for decades and have (thank God) never been pulled over or in an accident (though I've seen plenty).

The frog boils slowly.
Florida currently requires students in public schools K-12 to have immunizations for DTaP (Diphtheria-tetanus-acellular pertussis), polio, MMR (mumps measles rubella), hepatitis B, and varicella (chickenpox).
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
The government should not require vaccine passports for anything. That should be a decision for businesses.

No..... Government has a broader role than that. Can government require car makers to install seat belts and airbags, or is that a decision for the business?
Can the government mandate and provide security checkpoints for airline travel, or should the decision whether to scan travelers be up to each individual airline?

The government already requires certain vaccinations in order to enter the United States -- Should that requirement be dropped?

Should we drop the requirement that kids must be vaccinated to attend schools?



In the case of NY Mets and Yankees baseball the teams both said that their system is temporary until the cases drop low enough that it isn’t necessary. In other words don’t assume that will still be going on in August or maybe even June.
It's temporary ---- In the sense that the government requirement is temporary. NYS is requiring them to require proof of vaccination or negative test. It's actually not their decision.
 

sullyinMT

Well-Known Member
I was about to post the Israel numbers myself. I agree with everything you said..

And remember... these Israel numbers are still NOT herd immunity. Unfortunately, they are starting to encounter vaccine hesitancy in Israel. But if they do manage to push up vaccines a bit higher, and continue mitigation a bit longer, their numbers will go even lower. Debatable whether they will actually ever reach herd immunity, but we are seeing how low cases can go even if a bit shy of actual herd immunity.

One tiny footnote for Israel -- watch carefully over the next 2-3 weeks. They are celebrating Passover now, much like Thanksgiving here. Will they see a bit of a spike? Whatever they see in connection with Passover, should give us a sense of Memorial Day and July 4th type effects.
Purely guessing -- Israel may see a temporary bump up, but nothing like their past big surges.
They’re seeing hesitancy, sure. But only ~75% of the population is eligible by age, so the fact that they’ve approached 60% is pretty darn good.

Thankfully, Pfizer/BioNTech data on adolescents appears promising on the surface. Hopefully enough of the vaccinated Israelis and, eventually, other nations, will also bring their kids in for shots. As soon as our oldest son (13) is eligible, he’s already told us we have no choice but to vaccinate him 🤣.
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
this is not acceptable
Equivalency is not the point. There are degrees to everything.

As a family that escaped Nazi Europe, it is deeply upsetting and disturbing to hear someone compare requiring a vaccine to get on an airplane to the Nazi murder of my uncles, aunts and cousins.

Such comparisons are entirely inappropriate. It's not a question of degree. It's an entirely different universe.

The point is, you want to feel safe, so you are more than fine with your government barring people who don't think/act like you or do what you want from participating in society.

So let's get rid of traffic laws. Let's get rid of all laws. Why should the government stop people from shooting each other? If you're afraid of a bullet in the heart, just don't leave your house.

Honestly, the objections to vaccination passports, etc... are immature and childish. Ignoring all the other laws and precedents by which we operate as a society.




 

GimpYancIent

Well-Known Member
No..... Government has a broader role than that. Can government require car makers to install seat belts and airbags, or is that a decision for the business?
Can the government mandate and provide security checkpoints for airline travel, or should the decision whether to scan travelers be up to each individual airline?

The government already requires certain vaccinations in order to enter the United States -- Should that requirement be dropped?

Should we drop the requirement that kids must be vaccinated to attend schools?




It's temporary ---- In the sense that the government requirement is temporary. NYS is requiring them to require proof of vaccination or negative test. It's actually not their decision.
I am interested to see if Yankee and Met fans frequent the away games more than the home games?
 

hopemax

Well-Known Member
Do you have any insight into what the nation of Portugal has done to mitigate the virus? Was just looking at Israel and the Portugal case count is right behind them and their daily rate is even lower.
View attachment 543927

View attachment 543928

They have approx the same population. 9 mill:10 mill. Media makes Europe sound so bad, but this nation certainly belies that.
They have been in general lockdown since mid-January until April 15th. So National mask mandate, only leave your residence for essential activity. And travel is forbidden between municipalities for Easter Week. They also list “respiratory etiquette” but I am not sure what that means.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
No..... Government has a broader role than that. Can government require car makers to install seat belts and airbags, or is that a decision for the business?
Can the government mandate and provide security checkpoints for airline travel, or should the decision whether to scan travelers be up to each individual airline?

The government already requires certain vaccinations in order to enter the United States -- Should that requirement be dropped?

Should we drop the requirement that kids must be vaccinated to attend schools?
It's more complicated than that. I'd imagine if a car manufacturer only sold cars in the State in which they are incorporated and manufacture, the US Federal Government couldn't mandate anything. Of course, the State would have highway funding tied to requiring seatbelts so it is unlikely that any State wouldn't require them.

With respect to vaccines, there is absolutely no way that the US Federal Government can require any person be vaccinated for anything. In Florida law, the "State Health Official" can order vaccinations during a "Public Health Emergency." If a person refuses to be vaccinated they are subject to isolation or quarantine.

I'm sure there would be court challenges if they actually tried to do it but the power exists in the Florida Statutes.
 
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