GoofGoof
Premium Member
Technically they have reached herd immunity in the short term. The technical definition of herd immunity is an r0 of less than 1 and they have been below 1 since mid-Febrauary. That doesn’t mean they won’t see an uptick here and there. The goal of true, long term herd immunity is a continuous decline in numbers down to near zero or zero. They aren’t there yet, but heading in the right direction.I was about to post the Israel numbers myself. I agree with everything you said..
And remember... these Israel numbers are still NOT herd immunity. Unfortunately, they are starting to encounter vaccine hesitancy in Israel. But if they do manage to push up vaccines a bit higher, and continue mitigation a bit longer, their numbers will go even lower. Debatable whether they will actually ever reach herd immunity, but we are seeing how low cases can go even if a bit shy of actual herd immunity.
One tiny footnote for Israel -- watch carefully over the next 2-3 weeks. They are celebrating Passover now, much like Thanksgiving here. Will they see a bit of a spike? Whatever they see in connection with Passover, should give us a sense of Memorial Day and July 4th type effects.
Purely guessing -- Israel may see a temporary bump up, but nothing like their past big surges.