Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[danlb_2000]

Being closed down for a year, and wanting to re-open is "rushing"?

The amount of time closed isn't the issue, it's whether things are under control enough for it to be a good idea.

 

[HarperRose]

I will admit I thought there was no way he was going to get 100 million shots in arms within his first 100 days.

I was wrong.

It's amazing what leadership can do, along with competent people running the government.

 

[GoofGoof]

But we have seen Disney going "above and beyond" with mitigation measures -- which has led to wide suspicion around here that they are slow-walking normalization for other reasons, using Covid as an excuse. Or, generously, you can say they are just exercising more extreme mitigation "out of an abundance of caution" and to assure families of their safety.

Either way -- they have already shown a willingness to limit themselves more than others, and arguably more than necessary.

In other words -- they may continue "capacity restrictions" longer than necessary, using Covid as an excuse, but ultimately for other business reasons. (Such as, a reluctance to spend more on increasing operations, opting to continue operating as a smaller entity for a while).
The last "official" word we have from Disney is that they expect social distancing and masking to continue for the "rest of the year" (unclear whether fiscal year or calendar year).
What we see with their silence -- they are not planning any significant normalization over the Spring/Summer -- Other than a modified FOTLK, there have been no signs of returning entertainment. Other than hotel re-openings already announced, no signs of additional hotel re-openings.
And what we hear from rumors from trust sources -- "at this time" no plan to bring back fireworks even for 10/1.

So it appears, that on our current path, Disney is still planning for continued reductions/restrictions past 10/1.

Whether those reductions/restrictions will be "Covid necessary" is almost an entirely different discussion.

I would put zero stock in the “official” word from Disney that was part of an earnings call that was 6 weeks ago that was forward looking based on the situation at that time. A lot has changed since early Feb already: less than 10M Americans were vaccinated at the time, JnJ was not approved yet, Pfizer and Moderna hadn’t bumped up their second 100M dose delivery targets from June to May and we were still not expected to have enough doses for all Americans before August, the POTUS hadn’t talked of having enough vaccine for all adults by mid-May or a return to some level of normalcy by July 4. Why would their plans not have changed based on all of that? Chapek even said at the time that if the vaccines were opening to the general public by April then that would be a game changer and would increase their expected target dates and as we fast approach April we are now seeing that vaccines are open to the general public in about half the states and the rest will be sometime in April including FL the first week of April. This is a fluid situation which will change multiple times before we get to the end. I am assuming that Disney will follow the situation on the ground and adjust as needed.

I don’t think we can rely on any word as being firm or set in stone at this point. It’s also still March so I think it’s way too early to say they aren’t planning any normalization over the Summer. The traditional Summer season start the end of June so that’s still 3 months out and continues through Labor Day which is over 5 months away. If they wanted to bring a bunch of entertainment back for “Summer” there is plenty of time to do it. I’m not saying they will or won’t just that not announcing it today doesn‘t prevent it from happening. There have been reports of CMs being called back more recently, I think now that all CMs can be vaccinated starting in about a week that opens the door for entertainment that couldn’t be done due to close proximity of performers. Demand and economics will dictate how fast they return to normal. Anyone claiming to know the firm plan today is lying since even Chapek doesn’t know what will happen.

 

[havoc315]

I would put zero stock in the “official” word from Disney that was part of an earnings call that was 6 weeks ago that was forward looking based on the situation at that time. A lot has changed since early Feb already: less than 10M Americans were vaccinated at the time, JnJ was not approved yet, Pfizer and Moderna hadn’t bumped up their second 100M dose delivery targets from June to May and we were still not expected to have enough doses for all Americans before August, the POTUS hadn’t talked of having enough vaccine for all adults by mid-May or a return to some level of normalcy by July 4. Why would their plans not have changed based on all of that? Chapek even said at the time that if the vaccines were opening to the general public by April then that would be a game changer and would increase their expected target dates and as we fast approach April we are now seeing that vaccines are open to the general public in about half the states and the rest will be sometime in April including FL the first week of April. This is a fluid situation which will change multiple times before we get to the end. I am assuming that Disney will follow the situation on the ground and adjust as needed.

I don’t think we can rely on any word as being firm or set in stone at this point. It’s also still March so I think it’s way too early to say they aren’t planning any normalization over the Summer. The traditional Summer season start the end of June so that’s still 3 months out and continues through Labor Day which is over 5 months away. If they wanted to bring a bunch of entertainment back for “Summer” there is plenty of time to do it. I’m not saying they will or won’t just that not announcing it today doesn‘t prevent it from happening. There have been reports of CMs being called back more recently, I think now that all CMs can be vaccinated starting in about a week that opens the door for entertainment that couldn’t be done due to close proximity of performers. Demand and economics will dictate how fast they return to normal. Anyone claiming to know the firm plan today is lying since even Chapek doesn’t know what will happen.

And despite all that has “changed” since April..very recently announced France expansion won’t open until 10/1.
FOTLK is still the only show bringing back staff.

If they were really opening more entertainment and hotels by June, you’d be hearing the rumblings by now. Or at least very soon. Certainly within the next 2-3 weeks.

 

[HarperRose]

Being closed down for a year, and wanting to re-open is "rushing"?

I can only speak for my state, but restaurants were only closed for the first few weeks here. They reopened for take-out as soon as they were able to adapt, and then as soon as they could reopen indoor dining with a reduced capacity, they did.

 

[GoofGoof]

Are Disney World guests happier at the parks during the pandemic? Company CEO says yes​

Are Disney World guests happier at parks during pandemic? Company CEO says yes

Disney CEO Bob Chapek made some bold statements. People are happier at Disney World parks now — during a time when visitors must wear masks and can’t get the full experience — tha…

www.orlandosentinel.com

Anyone who went to WDW during a pandemic, wearing a mask with no entertainment, certain attractions closed, shortened hours and no break on price really, really wanted to be there. Of course they were happier than the average guest during pre-pandemic times. Hard core park fans made up a much higher percentage of total guests. I also think there’s a social media and psychological bias that comes into play. Anyone who has gone to WDW since re-opening has heard people question their call to go either in person or on social media and so the inclination is to prove those people wrong by gushing about how great it was.

 

[ABQ]

I can only speak for my state, but restaurants were only closed for the first few weeks here. They reopened for take-out as soon as they were able to adapt, and then as soon as they could reopen indoor dining with a reduced capacity, they did.

Having a family member who owns a restaurant, take out only, and even 25%indoor dining, does not pay the bills.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Having a family member who owns a restaurant, take out only, and even 25%indoor dining, does not pay the bills.

Maybe they need to learn a trade that does pay the bills then.

 

[ABQ]

Maybe they need to learn a trade that does pay the bills then.

wow....yeah....maybe he should learn to code or install solar panels....even though his business was just fine without a pandemic.

 

[GoofGoof]

And despite all that has “changed” since April..very recently announced France expansion won’t open until 10/1.
FOTLK is still the only show bringing back staff.

If they were really opening more entertainment and hotels by June, you’d be hearing the rumblings by now. Or at least very soon. Certainly within the next 2-3 weeks.

I didn’t say return by June. The Summer season lasts from mid-June to Labor Day. You said no normalization the whole Summer. Do you think it’s not possible to make any changes until after Labor Day unless they are announced in the next 2-3 weeks? A lot has changed in 6 weeks since that call, what will change in the next 6 weeks? That still gets us to 5/1 almost 2 months before the unofficial start of the Summer season for Disney. I am not saying things will return by a specific date that it’s way too soon to know nothing will be back before Labor Day. If they wanted to bring more CMs back for something in July or August they wouldn’t be calling them in March.

 

[DCBaker]

 

[danlb_2000]

On the subject of mandatory vaccination for things....

Rutgers University to require Covid vaccine for students returning to campus in the fall

Rutgers University is one of the first U.S. colleges to require students returning to campus this fall to prove they've been vaccinated against Covid.

www.cnbc.com

 

[GoofGoof]

Comments from Chapek 6 weeks ago....

Bob Chapek -- Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. I won't specifically comment on whether we anticipate getting to '19 revenues by 2022, but I will tell you what our expectations are in terms of the state of the world by then. We have no doubt that when we reopen up in parks that were closed, or increase the capacity, that we'll have some level of social distancing and mask wearing for the remainder of this year. That's our expectation.

But I believe that Dr. Fauci said earlier today that he hopes that there's vaccines for everyone who wants them by April this year. If that happens, that is a game changer. And that could accelerate our expectations and give people the confidence that they need to come back to the parks.

Will there be some overlap until we know that we've hit herd immunity? Sure, there will. But do we also believe that we'll be in the same state of six-foot social distancing and mask wearing in '22? Absolutely not.

Looks like both CA and FL will have vaccines for anyone who wants them in April....a game changer

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Having a family member who owns a restaurant, take out only, and even 25%indoor dining, does not pay the bills.

I’ve mentioned it here before about my good friend who owns a sandwich place. He said once he adapted to takeout.. expanded his webpage.. he has been doing better with take out and a average of 25 % indoor dining then he did before pandemic. He said he barely has 20 people in his shop all day but his phone is ringing off the hook and actually hired 2 employees for deliveries.. curb side pick ups etc. Now granted all us in the neighborhood made a concerted effort to keep him in business but he is doing ok even without us ordering a few meals a week from him.
Sorry your family member isn’t doing to well. Guess a lot of things depend on how it goes.

 

[havoc315]

I didn’t say return by June. The Summer season lasts from mid-June to Labor Day. You said no normalization the whole Summer. Do you think it’s not possible to make any changes until after Labor Day unless they are announced in the next 2-3 weeks? A lot has changed in 6 weeks since that call, what will change in the next 6 weeks? That still gets us to 5/1 almost 2 months before the unofficial start of the Summer season for Disney. I am not saying things will return by a specific date that it’s way too soon to know nothing will be back before Labor Day. If they wanted to bring more CMs back for something in July or August they wouldn’t be calling them in March.

I’m not saying they will make no changes.
I’m saying that it appears they expect some level of reduced capacity, social distancing and masks, through the summer and even early Fall.

I’m simply going on the evidence, known facts, and reliable rumor sources. Avoiding speculation about what “might” happen.

So far, the only known change happening in the next 3-4 months, is the return of FOTLK. (And the previously announced re-openings of Wilderness Lodge and Poly).

I believe the removal of restrictions will be gradual— gradual increases in capacity, gradual reduction in social distancing, gradual return of fireworks and entertainment.
I don’t think that suddenly on May 30th, they are going to say “everything goes back to normal on July 15th.”

And as things stand now, it appears extremely unlikely they will be back to 100% normal operations by any summer. Not by June, not by July or August.
Now that could change, they could indeed accelerate the pace. They could decide to go from 35% capacity to 100% capacity overnight, open every closed hotel at the same time, re-start all the night entertainment on the same day. It’s all possible.
But as of now, we haven’t witnessed any speed-up of normalization aDisney. Every bit of evidence continues to show they intend to move slow.

And I’ll certainly wager, that come September, they still are not at 100% of the old normal.

 

[danlb_2000]

I’ve mentioned it here before about my good friend who owns a sandwich place. He said once he adapted to takeout.. expanded his webpage.. he has been doing better with take out and a average of 25 % indoor dining then he did before pandemic. He said he barely has 20 people in his shop all day but his phone is ringing off the hook and actually hired 2 employees for deliveries.. curb side pick ups etc. Now granted all us in the neighborhood made a concerted effort to keep him in business but he is doing ok even without us ordering a few meals a week from him.
Sorry your family member isn’t doing to well. Guess a lot of things depend on how it goes.

Guy Fieri has been opening a bunch of these delivery only restaurants...

About Guy Fieri's Flavortown Kitchen Delivery Only Restaurant

Learn more about Flavortown Kitchen, a delivery-only restaurant featuring real-deal flavors from Chef Guy Fieri straight to your door step.

guysflavortownkitchen.com

 

[fgmnt]

Kids are at practically zero risk from COVID. If the adult population is 70% vaccinated they will be at even lower risk because there will be far fewer infected adults to potentially infect the kids.

Mitigation measures should not continue just because kids can't be vaccinated.

my family contracted covid in an educational environment where the virus vectored from a student to my mother.

 

[Ddad4]

I didn’t say return by June. The Summer season lasts from mid-June to Labor Day. You said no normalization the whole Summer. Do you think it’s not possible to make any changes until after Labor Day unless they are announced in the next 2-3 weeks? A lot has changed in 6 weeks since that call, what will change in the next 6 weeks? That still gets us to 5/1 almost 2 months before the unofficial start of the Summer season for Disney. I am not saying things will return by a specific date that it’s way too soon to know nothing will be back before Labor Day. If they wanted to bring more CMs back for something in July or August they wouldn’t be calling them in March.

I am heading down for Memorial Day week. I have a horrible feeling that Disney will be too slow to increase entertainment, dining and general capacity for the vaccinated crowds that may be ready to visit by then. they seem to be moving very slowly rather than trying to keep ahead of demand slightly.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I will admit I thought there was no way he was going to get 100 million shots in arms within his first 100 days.

I was wrong.

It's amazing what leadership can do, along with competent people running the government.

ehhh...that was a political angle.

they knew they had the 100mil...that’s why they said it.

now 200 seems be a pretty sure thing too...and that’s something.

as the J&J vax comes online...north of 200 mil is getting in the ballpark of 50% of adults done.

but to your point: the adults have to run the show. Qualified people always win over blowhards.

 

[corsairk09]

Do I even have to click on this article? I mean for real would they say otherwise? Much like our school who says "kids are thriving" when they want to do one thing and "Kids are struggling" when they want another.

We went in September and had a blast. Masks were a pain but It didn't feel too crowded, rode Peter Pan twice, and accomplished everything we could have wanted (except corn dog nuggets at Casey's Corner). Honestly it was an amazing trip. I hope they amke Cavalcades and Relaxation Stations permanent additions!