Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

I’m not saying they will make no changes.
I’m saying that it appears they expect some level of reduced capacity, social distancing and masks, through the summer and even early Fall.

I’m simply going on the evidence, known facts, and reliable rumor sources. Avoiding speculation about what “might” happen.

So far, the only known change happening in the next 3-4 months, is the return of FOTLK. (And the previously announced re-openings of Wilderness Lodge and Poly).

I believe the removal of restrictions will be gradual— gradual increases in capacity, gradual reduction in social distancing, gradual return of fireworks and entertainment.
I don’t think that suddenly on May 30th, they are going to say “everything goes back to normal on July 15th.”

And as things stand now, it appears extremely unlikely they will be back to 100% normal operations by any summer. Not by June, not by July or August.
Now that could change, they could indeed accelerate the pace. They could decide to go from 35% capacity to 100% capacity overnight, open every closed hotel at the same time, re-start all the night entertainment on the same day. It’s all possible.
But as of now, we haven’t witnessed any speed-up of normalization aDisney. Every bit of evidence continues to show they intend to move slow.

And I’ll certainly wager, that come September, they still are not at 100% of the old normal.

On March 25 in the middle of a pandemic where the situation changes daily there‘s no way to predict with any level of certainty what will happen 3-5 months from now during the Summer. I don’t think anyone here ever said back to 100% normal operations by the Summer. It‘s not all or nothing.

 

[correcaminos]

On the subject of mandatory vaccination for things....

Rutgers University to require Covid vaccine for students returning to campus in the fall

Rutgers University is one of the first U.S. colleges to require students returning to campus this fall to prove they've been vaccinated against Covid.

www.cnbc.com

Not surprising.

Summer season lasts from mid-June to Labor Day. You said no normalization the whole Summer. Do you think it’s not possible to make any changes until after Labor Day unless they are announced in the next 2-3 weeks? A lot has changed in 6 weeks since that call, what will change in the next 6 weeks? That still gets us to 5/1 almost 2 months before the unofficial start of the Summer season for Disney. I am not saying things will return by a specific date that it’s way too soon to know nothing will be back before Labor Day. If they wanted to bring m

Summer really starts right after Memorial day. We're still 2 months out and lots can change in that time period. I still think based on what I have seen in pics in FL parks as a whole and also locally, people will be tired of it and may or may not be easily enforceable at a certain point. People are turning into big jerks here about it.

We went in September and had a blast. Masks were a pain but It didn't feel too crowded, rode Peter Pan twice, and accomplished everything we could have wanted (except corn dog nuggets at Casey's Corner). Honestly it was an amazing trip. I hope they amke Cavalcades and Relaxation Stations permanent additions!

Wasn't saying that people didn't have fun, just that really... would they say otherwise? We skipped on spring break based on how booked up it was. There are things that I cannot do like walking Epcot in the morning that do still bother me. The rest, we'll figure it out.

 

[Stupido]

On the subject of mandatory vaccination for things....

Rutgers University to require Covid vaccine for students returning to campus in the fall

Rutgers University is one of the first U.S. colleges to require students returning to campus this fall to prove they've been vaccinated against Covid.

www.cnbc.com

As it should be. Sure, people should have the choice whether or not they want to have vaccines put into their bodies, but businesses should also have a choice about letting non-vaccinated people into their establishments.

It's the same concept of Freedom of Speech. Ultimately you have freedom to say whatever you want, but that doesn't make you free of any repercussions from what you choose to say.

I think we'll see more and more business industries doubling down on mandatory vaccination. Hopefully airlines will follow suit, that would quickly bring up vaccinated percentages.

 

[GoofGoof]

I am heading down for Memorial Day week. I have a horrible feeling that Disney will be too slow to increase entertainment, dining and general capacity for the vaccinated crowds that may be ready to visit by then. they seem to be moving very slowly rather than trying to keep ahead of demand slightly.

My guess would be some changes will happen between now and Memorial Day but it’s hard to predict what those changes will be. Vaccines are moving well but it still takes up to 6 weeks from first shot to full immunity. As one of largest employers in FL Disney should really press the Governor to deliver enough doses for all CMs to them directly by mid-April so they can get them all done on site and CMs can be immune by the start of June.

 

[JAKECOTCenter]

My guess would be some changes will happen between now and Memorial Day but it’s hard to predict what those changes will be. Vaccines are moving well but it still takes up to 6 weeks from first shot to full immunity. As one of largest employers in FL Disney should really press the Governor to deliver enough doses for all CMs to them directly by mid-April so they can get them all done on site and CMs can be immune by the start of June.

CMs being vaccinated will be the key to all this espeically entertainment

 

[havoc315]

On March 25 in the middle of a pandemic where the situation changes daily there‘s no way to predict with any level of certainty what will happen 3-5 months from now during the Summer. I don’t think anyone here ever said back to 100% normal operations by the Summer. It‘s not all or nothing.

EXACTLY. It's not all or nothing. But it is about the PACE of return. And every signal communicated from Disney is an intent to move SUPER SLOW.

Compare it to the other theme park in town:
Universal has virtually all their entertainment running already.
Universal never suspended AP sales, they never suspended their FP program.
Universal already returned night time entertainment.
Universal already announced return dates for night parties -- Starting September 3rd!!!!

Meanwhile.... from WDW? Umm.. a "modified' FOTLK returns sometime this summer.... France expansion opens October 1st. Crickets on everything else.

Yes, I'm sure some stuff will return this summer -- FOTLK is coming back! Woohoo! And maybe a little more will be announced. But it's very clear that WDW is moving at an extremely slow pace, much much slower than other businesses, much much slower than Universal.

 

[Stupido]

EXACTLY. It's not all or nothing. But it is about the PACE of return. And every signal communicated from Disney is an intent to move SUPER SLOW.

Compare it to the other theme park in town:
Universal has virtually all their entertainment running already.
Universal never suspended AP sales, they never suspended their FP program.
Universal already returned night time entertainment.
Universal already announced return dates for night parties -- Starting September 3rd!!!!

Meanwhile.... from WDW? Umm.. a "modified' FOTLK returns sometime this summer.... France expansion opens October 1st. Crickets on everything else.

Yes, I'm sure some stuff will return this summer -- FOTLK is coming back! Woohoo! And maybe a little more will be announced. But it's very clear that WDW is moving at an extremely slow pace, much much slower than other businesses, much much slower than Universal.

All of my friends who live in Orlando also say that they're avoiding Universal like the Plague because they don't feel safe there. They all feel like Universal has rushed things, and their safety protocols are severely lackluster. Being a company that values Cast Member and Guest safety over everything else, I doubt Disney will blindly follow Universal's lead. The last thing Disney would want is their Guests feeling unsafe in their parks.

 

[havoc315]

All of my friends who live in Orlando also say that they're avoiding Universal like the Plague because they don't feel safe there. They all feel like Universal has rushed things, and their safety protocols are severely lackluster. Being a company that values Cast Member and Guest safety over everything else, I doubt Disney will blindly follow Universal's lead. The last thing Disney would want is their Guests feeling unsafe in their parks.

Exactly... I wasn't citing Universal as a positive or negative example. But for demonstration of what Disney simply isn't doing. Disney appears to be going very deliberately, very slowly. I suspect come September/October, we will still be whining that they haven't returned to "normal."

 

[HarperRose]

Having a family member who owns a restaurant, take out only, and even 25%indoor dining, does not pay the bills.

Good thing that isn't the case, anymore, then.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Exactly... I wasn't citing Universal as a positive or negative example. But for demonstration of what Disney simply isn't doing. Disney appears to be going very deliberately, very slowly. I suspect come September/October, we will still be whining that they haven't returned to "normal."

I think it’s a very complicated scenario for them.

 

[disneygeek90]

I’ve mentioned it here before about my good friend who owns a sandwich place. He said once he adapted to takeout.. expanded his webpage.. he has been doing better with take out and a average of 25 % indoor dining then he did before pandemic. He said he barely has 20 people in his shop all day but his phone is ringing off the hook and actually hired 2 employees for deliveries.. curb side pick ups etc. Now granted all us in the neighborhood made a concerted effort to keep him in business but he is doing ok even without us ordering a few meals a week from him.
Sorry your family member isn’t doing to well. Guess a lot of things depend on how it goes.

Sandwiches by design are easily transportable so that sounds like a good pivot he was able to accomplish successfully. There's not as much demand to have a medium rare steak delivered to your front door that needs to be re-heated by the time it gets there.

 

[DCBaker]

Numbers are out - there were 107 new reported deaths, along with 2 Non-Florida Resident deaths.

 

[DCBaker]

Current Florida vaccine report -

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Guy Fieri has been opening a bunch of these delivery only restaurants...

About Guy Fieri's Flavortown Kitchen Delivery Only Restaurant

Learn more about Flavortown Kitchen, a delivery-only restaurant featuring real-deal flavors from Chef Guy Fieri straight to your door step.

guysflavortownkitchen.com

I saw this! He is actually renting kitchen space from restaurants, in my case he’s offering it out of a Bertuccis restaurant. Limited menu but it seems what they do have sounds good. I wonder how something like this will play out. It’s actually genius if it works.. restaurant gets more attention..gets rent I’m assuming from fieri.. win-win? Interesting. I may give it a go, it’s only 2 miles from the house.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Sandwiches by design are easily transportable so that sounds like a good pivot he was able to accomplish successfully. There's not as much demand to have a medium rare steak delivered to your front door that needs to be re-heated by the time it gets there.

Understand that completely. I guess my point is that the ones who adjusted quickly to the new game and how it’s played are making it. Steak meals would be tougher of course but many restaurants like that also pivoted to take out food with a changed menu.. alcohol to go..etc. I just applaud the way some adjusted to the times and fought back.

 

[Flugell]

Maybe WDW aren’t prepared to return to “Normal” because 18% of their visitors are from overseas providing around 20% of their income. International visitors stay longer and spend more!
So with that in mind, assuming USA visitors return to pre pandemic numbers, WDW income will still be significantly down so perhaps reluctant to open everything until pre pandemic attendance can be guaranteed!
Just a thought.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Maybe WDW aren’t prepared to return to “Normal” because 18% of their visitors are from overseas providing around 20% of their income. International visitors stay longer and spend more!
So with that in mind, assuming USA visitors return to pre pandemic numbers, WDW income will still be significantly down so perhaps reluctant to open everything until pre pandemic attendance can be guaranteed!
Just a thought.

that’s a very good point.

 

[disneygeek90]

Understand that completely. I guess my point is that the ones who adjusted quickly to the new game and how it’s played are making it. Steak meals would be tougher if course but many restaurants like that also pivoted to take out food with a changed menu.. alcohol to go..etc. I just applaud the way some adjusted to the times and fought back.

Alcohol to go has been a nice bonus. Not only did it help keep full service restaurants afloat, but it also trickles down to keeping the distributors going. Sure they also supply to stores, but it's still a good portion of their business as well that some don't always realize.

 

[havoc315]

I saw this! He is actually renting kitchen space from restaurants, in my case he’s offering it out of a Bertuccis restaurant. Limited menu but it seems what they do have sounds good. I wonder how something like this will play out. It’s actually genius if it works.. restaurant gets more attention..gets rent I’m assuming from fieri.. win-win? Interesting. I may give it a go, it’s only 2 miles from the house.

More restaurants, especially if they are a known brand, are also shipping meals and meals kits nationally.

I had Guy Fieri’s trash can nachos, though probably paid double the in-restaurant price. I had Cassoulet from Daniel, and multiple deep dish pizzas from Chicago. And Tom Collichio is sending me Easter Dinner.

Overall, it does stink to be a restaurant right now. One of the good things in the recent stimulus bill was assistance for restaurants.
But, some restaurants have adapted quite well. (And I recognize not every restaurant has the circumstances to adapt in the same way. A famous chef/restaurant can have more success shipping nationally than a local no-name establishment. Delivery works better in some markets than others. Some restaurants have the real estate for plentiful outdoor dining, others don’t).

 

[mmascari]

I think you are missing a zero. 1,000 cases a day nationally would be 0.3 cases per 100,000 people. Even Fauci earlier this month said that a reasonable estimate for reducing restrictions and getting rid of masks would be under 10,000 cases a day. 1,000 would be great, but there will likely be a lot of movement before that level.

Kids are at practically zero risk from COVID. If the adult population is 70% vaccinated they will be at even lower risk because there will be far fewer infected adults to potentially infect the kids.

Mitigation measures should not continue just because kids can't be vaccinated.

I agree there will be a level we need to get to before all mitigation measures go away. My only point is that 1,000 is not likely going to be that number. Under 10,000 cases per day nationally is about 3 cases per 100,000 people.

Right. So I am still wondering about what target we are looking for. For example, if we are still seeing those "1,000" or whatever cases a day, but hospitalizations are extremely low..... does that mean it is safe? Or are we looking for almost no cases? At some point, do we need to say that yes, people are getting ill with COVID, but it is ok to resume normal lives since they are simply ill and not in the hospital? Anyways those are my thoughts for whatever they are worth.

How many daily cases nationally line up with 150 daily deaths nationally? What's the math from 150 deaths back to cases, roughly? A case number that can increase some as those infected become less likely to die.

My theory is, that's the number. That as a country, we can live with 150/day (50,000/year). A number small enough to not be outrageous but still large enough that it's a statistic and not a news story when it happens to one person. A number we could apply to all kinds of things. For instance, run of the mill auto accidents are just under that statistic and it's barely news. However, if there's a one off particularly rare incident, it makes the national news. We don't like one offs that we feel can be prevented. We don't like huge outrageous impacts. Somewhere in the middle, it'll just be ignored.

Today, at 1,000+ a day, we're not there yet. We are worlds better than 3,000 a day and hence have less active mitigations than we did then. We could probably graph out the numbers, as long as we're moving from 1,000 to 900 to 800 to 700, different mitigations removed at every level. Added back if we slip and move up.

It doesn't really matter who's able to get the vaccine or how many have been vaccinated. If that number isn't moving down, it's all a waste. Enough people vaccinated should drive that number down, possibly even lower. But, it's that impact number, not the vaccine availability that will drive the changes. If the impact get's low enough even without any kids vaccinated, we'll stop mitigating. If it doesn't, then we're not going to stop.

It's really that simple. Things aren't going to go back to the old normal when 1,000 people die daily (365,000 yearly). Even if we removed all mandated mitigations, enough people still wouldn't go back to normal. As a group, they don't really care what's mandated or not. It's the impacts that matter.