Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DisneyDebRob]

More restaurants, especially if they are a known brand, are also shipping meals and meals kits nationally.

I had Guy Fieri’s trash can nachos, though probably paid double the in-restaurant price. I had Cassoulet from Daniel, and multiple deep dish pizzas from Chicago. And Tom Collichio is sending me Easter Dinner.

Overall, it does stink to be a restaurant right now. One of the good things in the recent stimulus bill was assistance for restaurants.
But, some restaurants have adapted quite well. (And I recognize not every restaurant has the circumstances to adapt in the same way. A famous chef/restaurant can have more success shipping nationally than a local no-name establishment. Delivery works better in some markets than others. Some restaurants have the real estate for plentiful outdoor dining, others don’t).

This is a success story here after a almost tragic situation.
My wife belongs to a FB group for our area and there was a wife and husband team who catered many events. She caught Covid and had a rough time of it and he stopped the business to get her back as healthy as possible. She doing much better now months later so they decided to sell 2 different meals each week for 4 days. 45 bucks cover everything. We tried the chicken Parmesan and Ziti meal. 12 chicken, half a tray of pasta and half a tray of Caesar salad. They say it feeds 6, well it feeds more. We have had 2 dull meals a piece and still have 3-4 left in the freezer. You place the order with them and pick it up at their house. Still using the commercial kitchens and it’s fantastic. Just ordered their Easter meal.
Just love how people have adjusted. Making the lemonade out of lemons as they say.

 

[DCBaker]

 

[GoofGoof]

How many daily cases nationally line up with 150 daily deaths nationally? What's the math from 150 deaths back to cases, roughly? A case number that can increase some as those infected become less likely to die.

My theory is, that's the number. That as a country, we can live with 150/day (50,000/year). A number small enough to not be outrageous but still large enough that it's a statistic and not a news story when it happens to one person. A number we could apply to all kinds of things. For instance, run of the mill auto accidents are just under that statistic and it's barely news. However, if there's a one off particularly rare incident, it makes the national news. We don't like one offs that we feel can be prevented. We don't like huge outrageous impacts. Somewhere in the middle, it'll just be ignored.

Today, at 1,000+ a day, we're not there yet. We are worlds better than 3,000 a day and hence have less active mitigations than we did then. We could probably graph out the numbers, as long as we're moving from 1,000 to 900 to 800 to 700, different mitigations removed at every level. Added back if we slip and move up.

It doesn't really matter who's able to get the vaccine or how many have been vaccinated. If that number isn't moving down, it's all a waste. Enough people vaccinated should drive that number down, possibly even lower. But, it's that impact number, not the vaccine availability that will drive the changes. If the impact get's low enough even without any kids vaccinated, we'll stop mitigating. If it doesn't, then we're not going to stop.

It's really that simple. Things aren't going to go back to the old normal when 1,000 people die daily (365,000 yearly). Even if we removed all mandated mitigations, enough people still wouldn't go back to normal. As a group, they don't really care what's mandated or not. It's the impacts that matter.

I think deaths and hospitalizations should be a big driver of change. The CDC still doesn’t list that as a factor. They say guidance will be updated and expanded based on the level of community spread of SARS-CoV-2, the proportion of the population that is fully vaccinated, and the rapidly evolving science on COVID-19 vaccines. They may consider deaths to go hand in hand with community spread but in theory once we finish elderly and high risk people with vaccinations the death rate should drop dramatically.

 

[mmascari]

I think deaths and hospitalizations should be a big driver of change. The CDC still doesn’t list that as a factor. They say guidance will be updated and expanded based on the level of community spread of SARS-CoV-2, the proportion of the population that is fully vaccinated, and the rapidly evolving science on COVID-19 vaccines. They may consider deaths to go hand in hand with community spread but in theory once we finish elderly and high risk people with vaccinations the death rate should drop dramatically.

It's hard to measure community spread on it's own. We measure cases and positivity. And there's some fuzzy indicators in there. Like we know over 5% positivity is bad. But, what's good? It's not really under 5%. Is it under 1% or under 0.5%? I think as it get's lower it's mostly just "better", not a hard line. Just like with cases. Lower is better, assuming the positivity says we're finding enough. But nobody would care how high the case number was if there was no impact. Obviously the goal is low case counts with low positivity, so we know we're finding them all and there isn't many of them. For some definition of "low".

At least in the short term, I can agree with the "dead vs not dead" classification on impacts. It's an easy number to look at and an obvious impact. One we can put a price on, even if we don't like to talk about it. In the longer term, once "dead" is small enough, we'll probably have to look at a more nuanced version of "not dead". Call out those "long term impacted vs just fine" metrics.

If after a case, the vast majority landed in "just fine", nobody would care how big the case number gets. That's not true today though. Today, high case number drives a high death number and a long term impact number. Once death is down, we can determine how big long term impact is.

It was an honest question though. What's the relationship between daily case number and daily death number? Someone on this board must have an equation that relates the two. One that we could use to guess at the cases counts that lead to different death numbers. Even assuming that the math will change and a larger case count will lead to the same death count as more elderly people are vaccinated and make up less of the case count.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

I’ve mentioned it here before about my good friend who owns a sandwich place. He said once he adapted to takeout.. expanded his webpage.. he has been doing better with take out and a average of 25 % indoor dining then he did before pandemic. He said he barely has 20 people in his shop all day but his phone is ringing off the hook and actually hired 2 employees for deliveries.. curb side pick ups etc. Now granted all us in the neighborhood made a concerted effort to keep him in business but he is doing ok even without us ordering a few meals a week from him.
Sorry your family member isn’t doing to well. Guess a lot of things depend on how it goes.

Yeah. Two local coffee shops near me reacted completely differently, one closed last year and whined about the restrictions and never reopened.

The other one put together “brew at home” kits, advertised their cold brew concentrate with recipes, and created a drive - up ordering system where they bring your order out to your car. They seem to be doing quite well.

Sandwiches by design are easily transportable so that sounds like a good pivot he was able to accomplish successfully. There's not as much demand to have a medium rare steak delivered to your front door that needs to be re-heated by the time it gets there.

It’s too bad that restaurants can’t change their menu to adapt to changes.

 

[disneygeek90]

Yeah. Two local coffee shops near me reacted completely differently, one closed last year and whined about the restrictions and never reopened.

The other one put together “brew at home” kits, advertised their cold brew concentrate with recipes, and created a drive - up ordering system where they bring your order out to your car. They seem to be doing quite well.


It’s too bad that restaurants can’t change their menu to adapt to changes.

Most (if not all) restaurants have adjusted their menu. A seafood restaurant isn't going to start trying to sell ham sandwiches, though.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Most (if not all) restaurants have adjusted their menu. A seafood restaurant isn't going to start trying to sell ham sandwiches, though.

I mean... nothing is stopping them if that’s what’s the market is wanting.

 

[Chi84]

Most (if not all) restaurants have adjusted their menu. A seafood restaurant isn't going to start trying to sell ham sandwiches, though.

This is true. There's a huge difference between a high-end seafood restaurant in terms of customers, type of staff and costs to maintain the place. I'm not an expert in restaurant management, but there's no way a place like that is going to be able to survive selling sandwiches when people can go to a drive-through or a place like Panera instead.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

This is true. There's a huge difference between a high-end seafood restaurant in terms of customers, type of staff and costs to maintain the place. I'm not an expert in restaurant management, but there's no way a place like that is going to be able to survive selling sandwiches when people can go to a drive-through or a place like Panera instead.

There are plenty of examples of high-end restaurants doing just that and other creative solutions.

 

[dreday3]

There are plenty of examples of high-end restaurants doing just that and other creative solutions.

I think you are overexaggerating how many restaurants switched to that model. Most higher end places I know of didn't even keep with pick up orders as it was costing more money to do that than it was worth. Some weathered the storm, some didn't.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

I think you are overexaggerating how many restaurants switched to that model. Most higher end places I know of didn't even keep with pick up orders as it was costing more money to do that than it was worth. Some weathered the storm, some didn't.

I don’t know the data so I might be. Times change. You adapt or die.

Also... why would any restaurant not offer pick up orders? “No we don’t want your money!”

 

[FantasiaMickey2000]

I will admit I thought there was no way he was going to get 100 million shots in arms within his first 100 days.

I was wrong.

It's amazing what leadership can do, along with competent people running the government.

I don’t understand why you thought that. We were already at 951,000 shots a day on January 13 (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-vaccinations-1-million-doses-day/) which was a full week before Inauguration Day. The Trump administration left him with 1,000,000 shots a day. Unless you thought the Biden administration was going to somehow issue fewer shots than the Trump administration despite having multiple times more supply.

 

[Tom P.]

I think deaths and hospitalizations should be a big driver of change. The CDC still doesn’t list that as a factor. They say guidance will be updated and expanded based on the level of community spread of SARS-CoV-2, the proportion of the population that is fully vaccinated, and the rapidly evolving science on COVID-19 vaccines. They may consider deaths to go hand in hand with community spread but in theory once we finish elderly and high risk people with vaccinations the death rate should drop dramatically.

Personally, I've thought we -- and especially the media -- have been way too obsessed with "number of cases" from the beginning. Cases can be an indicator of other things, of course, but as an isolated statistic, number of cases really mean nothing. You could have 100 cases and all of them result in serious complications, hospitalization, and/or death. You could have 10,000 cases and none of them result in any serious problems.

There is no perfect statistic that captures all of the possible outcomes from Covid. But, for lack of better data, I think the two numbers we should be focusing on are hospitalizations and deaths. If those numbers drop to a low level, I don't think we should be particularly concerned with whether cases are high or low.

 

[Chi84]

I think you are overexaggerating how many restaurants switched to that model. Most higher end places I know of didn't even keep with pick up orders as it was costing more money to do that than it was worth. Some weathered the storm, some didn't.

Yeah I’m just guessing that the people whose businesses and livelihoods are on the line know a little more about what was feasible than the people here.

 

[Stitch826]

And I agree with them. There is no reason to have indoor dining open right now.

There are well over a half million restaurants in the United States. Unless the government is going to pay them to stay closed (and pay tens of millions of employees unemployment to stay home), there’s a very big reason to be open.

Look at Major League Baseball as an example. They had no fans in the stadiums in 2020. Yet they still had to pay their players, much of their staffs, utilities, maintenance, travel expenses, etc. Teams lost tens millions of dollars last year.

Similarly, restaurants are experiencing the same thing. They still have to pay rent, taxes, utilities, hourly employees who work, salaried managers, maintenance, etc. Not to mention food cost. Most restaurants are operating at reduced capacity, so a slim profit margin shrinks even further or goes into the red.

 

[ABQ]

Good thing that isn't the case, anymore, then.

It still is in his county.

 

[dreday3]

I don’t know the data so I might be. Times change. You adapt or die.

Also... why would any restaurant not offer pick up orders? “No we don’t want your money!”

Have you ever been to a real "high end" dining experience with a unique menu? They aren't packing that to go. Some restaurants are an "experience" it's what the restaurant/chef is known for. Again, some did it, more than some did not fare as well.

Not everything can be repackaged as a sandwich...

And I'm going to just hold that "you adapt or die" statement in my back pocket for later...

 

[GoofGoof]

Personally, I've thought we -- and especially the media -- have been way too obsessed with "number of cases" from the beginning. Cases can be an indicator of other things, of course, but as an isolated statistic, number of cases really mean nothing. You could have 100 cases and all of them result in serious complications, hospitalization, and/or death. You could have 10,000 cases and none of them result in any serious problems.

There is no perfect statistic that captures all of the possible outcomes from Covid. But, for lack of better data, I think the two numbers we should be focusing on are hospitalizations and deaths. If those numbers drop to a low level, I don't think we should be particularly concerned with whether cases are high or low.

Cases are supposed to be part of the picture to give us an idea of how widespread community spread is. Restrictions like masks, distancing and no group gatherings are only needed if community spread is moderate or high. It’s hard to say what community spread levels really exist because of the level of testing done. Deaths and hospitalizations are both easier to follow stats but they lag cases so as surges in cases ramp up we were supposed to pull back on activity before the surge in cases turns into deaths.

I can get on board with focusing more on death and hospitalization rates going forward since the majority of people will be vaccinated soon. Despite what the doom and gloom crowd wants to say, the vaccines are really highly effective at preventing serious illness and death. I also think we may see a drop off in testing too. Certainly if the vaccines do their thing as advertised there will be significantly less symptomatic cases. The CDC is now saying even if you have contact with someone who tests positive if you are vaccinated you don’t need a test or quarantine if you aren’t symptomatic. I’m sure some employers that were requiring periodic Covid tests will apply the same rule. Once the majority of people are vaccinated there is likely going to be a lot less Covid testing. Percent positive will be a less effective indicator if cases drop.

 

[aliceismad]

Have you ever been to a real "high end" dining experience with a unique menu? They aren't packing that to go. Some restaurants are an "experience" it's what the restaurant/chef is known for.

Not everything can be repackaged as a sandwich...

And I'm going to just hold that "you adapt or die" statement in my back pocket for later...

Actually in cities, some high-end restaurants are doing take-out or delivery, including Michelin star places. Daniel Boulud, Michael Mina, Eric Ripert, etc. A bunch of renowned chefs have made comments about it or have gone on Instagram or whathaveyou. I'm sure it's not the same as having the experience in the restaurant, but they are making it work.

Quick google -

13 Michelin-Star Chefs Now Delivering

Mix up dinners at home with some Michelin-star magic by tucking into delivery dishes like Eleven Madison Park's roast chicken and truffle, and Heston Blumenthal's meat fruit. See more.

www.finedininglovers.com

How to Order Michelin-Star Meals During the COVID-19 Crisis | Visit California | Visit California

Restaurants everywhere have had to adapt, in their own ways, to the COVID-19 crisis. Some have closed their doors, at least temporarily, while others are focusing their energy on feeding frontline workers and folks in need. A significant number of Golden State eateries have managed to shift...

www.visitcalifornia.com

29 Michelin-Starred Meals Under $55 You Can Order Right Now

Chefs are reading the room and offering more affordable fare for pickup and delivery.

www.foodandwine.com

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Actually in cities, some high-end restaurants are doing take-out or delivery, including Michelin star places. Daniel Boulud, Michael Mina, Eric Ripert, etc. A bunch of renowned chefs have made comments about it or have gone on Instagram or whathaveyou. I'm sure it's not the same as having the experience in the restaurant, but they are making it work.

Exactly. And yes I’ve been at the chefs table at high end restaurants and of course it’s not going to be the same experience. Nothing is the same experience right now.

In my coffee shop example I miss going in and hearing the espresso machine everyday but I’ve learned more about making coffee at home the past year.