Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GimpYancIent]

I haven’t seen any studies showing that the vaccines are any less effective vs the NY variant. Is there some evidence of that? Are we seeing large numbers of vaccinated people getting sick in NY now? Wouldn’t that be the case if the vaccines didn’t work against the variant. I haven’t seen that reported and the NY variant is pretty common in the NYC area. I would assume if it was happening widespread that we would be hearing about it.

Its NYC! Duh.

 

[DCBaker]

Thanks! That's not far from me! Is that a one time thing, or is it something they do daily?

They were telling people they turned away after the line got too long that they plan on doing others and to sign up on their website.

Here is a direct link to the sign up -

Orlando Family Health Centers | Community Health Centers

Community Health Centers is a group of Central Florida family health centers providing affordable Medical, Pediatric, Dental, and Specialty care.

www.chcfl.org

 

[SamusAranX]

They were telling people they turned away after the line got too long that they plan on doing others and to sign up on their website.

Here is a direct link to the sign up -

Orlando Family Health Centers | Community Health Centers

Community Health Centers is a group of Central Florida family health centers providing affordable Medical, Pediatric, Dental, and Specialty care.

www.chcfl.org

Thanks so much! I just signed up on the pre-registration list

 

[GoofGoof]

Its NYC! Duh.

Not sure what that means

 

[MaryJaneP]

Several articles posted over the past few months in this very thread by other posters. Feel free to search through.

No. Early on they were guessing that the primary cause was asymptomatic transmission. Over time it was determined that it was presymptomatic transmission that was the main driver. Therefore, somebody who never develops any symptoms is not likely to be a spreader.

In the January 2021 Journal of the American Medical Association, in a peer reviewed article, they stated a conclusion that seems to disagree with yours. It states "Findings In this decision analytical model assessing multiple scenarios for the infectious period and the proportion of transmission from individuals who never have COVID-19 symptoms, transmission from asymptomatic individuals was estimated to account for more than half of all transmission." Isn't more than half a main driver?

 

[DisneyCane]

Agreed. No official announcement.. they will just gradually reduce the distancing. At first, with plexiglass. But eventually, fill more and more rows, with or without plexiglass.

Plexiglass is by far the "mitigation measure" that give the least bang for the buck of anything done during this pandemic. It is essentially useless, especially as installed in almost every place I've seen. The only thing it can really do is block droplets of an uncovered and unmasked sneeze or strong cough.

It is very expensive. A poker room manager in Las Vegas told me that it cost $2,500 per table to install it. Disney is spending some serious money putting it on ride vehicles and in the queues for very little real benefit.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Several articles posted over the past few months in this very thread by other posters. Feel free to search through.

I’ll take that as a no.

 

[DisneyCane]

In the January 2021 Journal of the American Medical Association, in a peer reviewed article, they stated a conclusion that seems to disagree with yours. It states "Findings In this decision analytical model assessing multiple scenarios for the infectious period and the proportion of transmission from individuals who never have COVID-19 symptoms, transmission from asymptomatic individuals was estimated to account for more than half of all transmission." Isn't more than half a main driver?

When I have time I'll find some of the sources for my conclusions. I remember Dr. Birx was one of the sources (relatively recently so nothing to do with Trump causing her to say falsehoods or whatever).

 

[havoc315]

Plexiglass is by far the "mitigation measure" that give the least bang for the buck of anything done during this pandemic. It is essentially useless, especially as installed in almost every place I've seen. The only thing it can really do is block droplets of an uncovered and unmasked sneeze or strong cough.

It is very expensive. A poker room manager in Las Vegas told me that it cost $2,500 per table to install it. Disney is spending some serious money putting it on ride vehicles and in the queues for very little real benefit.

But most transmission occurs through "droplets" -- Often much smaller droplets, but that's how it occurs. Virus doesn't just float around the air freely, it needs a vehicle. It attaches to droplets, big and small. So plexiglass between rows is actually pretty protective.

 

[MaryJaneP]

How many months did it take until the "hoax" crew was significantly convinced? What multiple of that time is needed until the majority of the "anti-mask" crew is convinced? It is obvious some will never be convinced. Is that herd immunity?

 

[DisneyCane]

I’ll take that as a no.

Take it however you want. People have posted several articles. I'm not going through 58,000 posts to find it.

 

[DisneyCane]

But most transmission occurs through "droplets" -- Often much smaller droplets, but that's how it occurs. Virus doesn't just float around the air freely, it needs a vehicle. It attaches to droplets, big and small. So plexiglass between rows is actually pretty protective.

No it isn't. Go find a single scientific experiment that shows it is. Plexiglass on ride vehicles is complete "health theatre." If it makes you feel safe then great but it does almost nothing, especially in relation to the non-plexiglass risk on relatively fast moving ride vehicle on a ride that lasts less than 5 - 7 minutes.

 

[GoofGoof]

But most transmission occurs through "droplets" -- Often much smaller droplets, but that's how it occurs. Virus doesn't just float around the air freely, it needs a vehicle. It attaches to droplets, big and small. So plexiglass between rows is actually pretty protective.

Shouldn‘t the mask stop the droplets? I would think in a situation where a mask isn’t worn, like maybe dining it would be a bigger help than on a ride where everyone is masked.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Take it however you want. People have posted several articles. I'm not going through 58,000 posts to find it.

Neither am I. I did a google search and didn’t find any source to back up your claim. Since you can’t easily find it either, I’m taking that as you have no source.

 

[Kevin_W]

Israel is doing great. It hopefully shows us where we can be in another 6-8 weeks.

The UK variant appears more transmissible than the Wuhan variant, but no less responsive to vaccines.
The variants with E484K drop-off are currently causing a bit more concern in NYC ICUs.

We're actually lower per capita than Israel is right now in cases per day, though about double in deaths. It's curious that Israel's January surge was very similar to ours in cases, but much lower in deaths.

 

[GoofGoof]

We're actually lower per capita than Israel is right now in cases per day, though about double in deaths. It's curious that Israels Januart surge was very similar to ours in cases, but much lower in deaths.
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Israel has a much higher concentration of variants than the US so that May account for more cases. I think I saw somewhere that 80% of their cases were the UK variant which is twice as contagious but not much more deadly.

 

[Kevin_W]

Israel has a much higher concentration of variants than the US so that May account for more cases. I think I saw somewhere that 80% of their cases were the UK variant which is twice as contagious but not much more deadly.

Right, but (similarly deadly) * (more cases) = (more deaths). Or at least should. Btu there could be many other differences: demographics, medical care, etc.

I saw an article that correlated fatality rate per country with average BMI and there was a decent correlation. It's at least a hypothesis as to why the virus has not struck Africa and Asia as hard as the US/Europe/Latin America. Asians and Africans tend to be skinnier.

 

[danlb_2000]

Plexiglass is by far the "mitigation measure" that give the least bang for the buck of anything done during this pandemic. It is essentially useless, especially as installed in almost every place I've seen. The only thing it can really do is block droplets of an uncovered and unmasked sneeze or strong cough.

It is very expensive. A poker room manager in Las Vegas told me that it cost $2,500 per table to install it. Disney is spending some serious money putting it on ride vehicles and in the queues for very little real benefit.

Somebody needs to build a business around uses for used Plexiglas. There is going to be a lot available over the next few years.

 

[Crunchie9]

Big difference as:
1 -- It's a mandatory touch point. A conscientious guest could largely avoid most bare handed touches. It's not that hard to get through a day at WDW without many touches.
2 -- It's thousands of people per day touching the exact same tiny spot.

and a wipe and poof. If anything that controlled area would be the cleanest and safest point in the park.

Keypads everywhere are envious.

 

[ABQ]

Re-infection by new variants isn't conjecture. More and more evidence is emerging that naturally acquired immunity is not very protective for a very long period of time against some of the newer variants.
Brazil is becoming the case study in this, where their entire hospital system is again being overwhelmed -- largely by re-infection.

Covid-19: Is Manaus the final nail in the coffin for natural herd immunity?

Many thought a second wave was impossible in Brazil’s Amazon because of the severity of the first. A second crisis has stunned the city of Manaus, reports Luke Taylor , and raises questions around a new variant and the likelihood of natural herd immunity Hospitals in the Brazilian Amazon...

www.bmj.com

While it's still being studied, it is far from being just "conjecture."

Read the article, even went to the footnoted supporting documentation which found that 1 case of reinfection of a Brazilian woman, 29 years old, 9 months after her first infection took place. I'm not sure what the recommended time between natural infection and vaccination is, I'm going to assume it will be less than 9 months after that example. There was a second footnote which was behind a paywall, so I have no thoughts on that. However, the article you linked also states this:

There are three explanations for how the virus could be spreading quickly despite most of the population having been infected, say experts.

One is that people are being reinfected by the coronavirus as antibodies gradually decline post-infection. That tendency is central to the John Snow Memorandum signed by 7000 experts and healthcare workers last year in opposition to those who called for a “natural herd immunity” strategy, which would have allowed the virus to spread through the population to provide exposure.

But that theory seems “unlikely” in this case, Hanage says. “There have been reasonably good studies from elsewhere which have suggested that immunity tends to last at least eight months.” Cases in Manaus peaked in May.
​

It then goes on to speak about the 1 example.
So, okay, that one case could be come million, it could become billions, I don't know, but in my opinion, which is obviously completely unqualified, it would be conjecture to believe it would.