Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DCBaker]

Current Florida vaccine report -

 

[MaryJaneP]

It has been posted that for a cruise ship to have a US flag, it is subject to all US laws, such as food, labor, safety, etc. Many cruise lines are thus foreign flagged, sometimes called a flag of convenience. Such foreign flagged lines may start or end in the US allegedly only if they also visit a foreign non-US port. A few domestically flagged lines, such as on the Mississippi river and other locations, seem to visit only US ports. YMMV

 

[Chi84]

The school likely knows all the local providers and gets many forms to cross check. They can take the time to look up and validate it too. But, really the reward is getting to enroll in school and the personal risk if found lying is getting kicked out. There's not any incentive to lie and the robustness to checking is more than the random form.


We do? That's news.

We have some statistics databases for sure, but that's not to a person. We have county databases for people who got vaccinated by the county. We have pharmacy databases for people vaccinated by them. I'm not aware of any massive single US wide database with personal level details tracking vaccination. Probably more like we have 3,000 databases tracking specifically who's been vaccinated and none of them are designed to support using them to check randomly. They're probably not designed to get the data out to feed some new system either. Pharmacies are definitely constrained on how they share this information.


Think bigger, liability lawyers are thinking bigger.

Nanna picks up a variant the vaccine is less effective against. She's vulnerable, but it was her 98th birthday and the venue was vaccinated only people so it sounded safe. Nanna gets sick, and less effective combined with all her other issues creates a poor outcome. (Lets face it, Nanna was a goner anyway, the COVID was just a bonus.) They contact trace and find she picked up COVID at the Vaccine Passport protected venue and her family sues the venue for all the money. The venue didn't screw up, they checked everyone correctly, they were lied to by someone who got to eat dinner and then split.

That's the liability the venue has accepted.

They've accepted this liability on the off chance that someone doesn't fake a CDC card and call it proof so they can eat dinner out.

Doesn't feel like a good trade off, liability wise, for the venue.


If we replace some random venue with a country, the metric changes. A county can accept that liability risk and they can add resources to create a better record of proof for international travelers. A country also doesn't need to be "fair", they don't have to care if the vaccine is available to everyone or not.

That's not an accurate assessment of liability. If the venue didn't "screw up," they're not liable. I assume you're talking about a negligence action. No business stands as an absolute insurer against something going wrong - they are only held to a specific standard of care. The vaccine passport company will presumably adopt procedures to ensure the accuracy of the information given them, and those procedures should be sufficient to withstand most attempts to subvert it. If they are negligent in adopting substandard procedures, there could be liability, assuming all other legal requirements are met. If they fail to accurately carry out those procedures, there could be liability. But the fact that someone found a way around the system, in and of itself, is not enough to establish liability.

 

[GoofGoof]

I would completely support a change form 6 to 3 in all situations that include whatever other conditions must also be true.

If that's:
Anytime masks are worn.
Anytime the entire group is tested every 7 days or less.
Whenever ventilation meets some goal. (All air changed every 5 minutes maybe.)
Whatever other mitigations are replacing the distance mitigation instead.

I wouldn't suggest something was just for school. It should be tied to what other mitigations efforts replace distance to achieve the same type of goals. Anyplace that can implement mitigations efforts in place of distance, should be allowed to reduce the distance mitigation. They should give us those exposure goals and the different mitigation options that can be used to achieve them.

It's why I never (rarely) say "masks" and always say "mitigation" in posts. The goal is stop virus exposures. Whatever combination is correct for the situation should be used. For instance, I never wear a mask when I walk the dog. We live in an open neighborhood and it's completely possible to stay 6 feet (or more) away from anyone. Sometimes we walk the dog on trails at the local park and I wear one then typically. The park is busier with lots of people. Between the parking lot and crowded trails it's frequently impossible to maintain distance all the time. If it's a really off hour, I might have it but only put on in the busy areas, since distance is possible then.

I can’t speak for every other place but many schools aren’t doing testing at all let alone every 7 days and most aren’t making significant changes to ventilation. I believe the proposed CDC change does specify that you can only go to 3 feet if masks are worn.

 

[Heppenheimer]

In the case of cruises it would be wise to require the presentation of a record of all vaccinations in addition to a temperature check prior to boarding. The floating Petri dishes had issues w disease spread well before COVID ever came on scene. Bon Voyage!

The best thing cruises could ever do is require proof of a stool sample clear of noravirus and rotavirus prior to embarking... which probably isn't feasible, but it would be nice.

 

[MaryJaneP]

After working in a primary care provider's office for over a decade, we were NEVER contacted by any of the surrounding schools to verify the vaccination records we provided to many patients and their families. Maybe it is unworkable to have an expectation that vaccine-passports will be any more stringently double-checked. Theater here it comes.

 

[DCBaker]

Article here -

U.S. to share 4 million doses of AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine with Mexico, Canada

The United States plans to send roughly 4 million doses of AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine that it is not using to Mexico and Canada in loan deals with the two countries, yielding to requests to share vaccines with allies.

www.reuters.com

 

[Heppenheimer]

What does Disney and the Cruise lines do for those people who can not get the vaccine for health reasons?

That is an interesting question no one really brings up.

Compared to some other vaccines, the amount of people who have legitimate medical contra-indications to the COVID vaccines used in the US are miniscule. We're talking no more than a few hundred in a population of 332 million.

 

[GoofGoof]

Why not? Public health isn’t all or nothing. A few exemptions makes the system less safe, but it doesn’t raise the risk to equal no vaccine checks at all.

100% vaccination would be the most safe. A few unvaccinated people is less safe than that, but not as unsafe as nobody vaccinated. Maybe I’m misunderstanding.

Absolutely! But isn’t it like restaurant health inspections in this regard? Restaurants don’t like health inspections, but they certainly don’t want to get a low grade (in those municipalities that publicly post those) or be closed by the Health Department. And when they get an A grade, the turn that into a selling point—just like Disney has done with their mitigation infrastructure and protocols, right?

So far vaccines aren’t approved for over 25% of the population. That’s a lot more than a few exceptions. If the government mandated vaccine passports then of course businesses would have no choice but to comply or face penalties but that doesn‘t mean they will be happy. If you have a business open but then exclude more than 1/4 of the population that’s not good for business. Vaccine passports would only be practical or even necessary if we reach a point where the vaccine acceptance wasn’t high enough and we have too many Covid cases for stuff to be open. They make no sense to even consider until the Fall and more likely 2022.

 

[GoofGoof]

Compared to some other vaccines, the amount of people who have legitimate medical contra-indications to the COVID vaccines used in the US are miniscule. We're talking no more than a few hundred in a population of 332 million.

I agree with this. Once kids are approved the number of people who can’t be vaccinated is very small. It’s conceivable that if we have all kids approved by end of 2021 and Covid is still a pretty big problem that at that point vaccine passports could become a reality. The odds of that happening are pretty low.

 

[lazyboy97o]

The best thing cruises could ever do is require proof of a stool sample clear of noravirus and rotavirus prior to embarking... which probably isn't feasible, but it would be nice.

 

[Dranth]

That could open up can of worms though. Thats where these state legislators could come in make a law saying Disney CAN NOT require vaccines.

These companies are going to want to make it effortless as possible. There has to be a way to do it where it wont cause too much hassle.

Cruise lines are a bit different though. You are going to other countries who could honestly care less what Florida does or does not require. If a port of call is in a country that requires it the cruise line would need to honor that if they are going to sail there.

Now for Disney World itself, you may have a point but we won’t know until/if they try it.

 

[mmascari]

I can’t speak for every other place but many schools aren’t doing testing at all let alone every 7 days and most aren’t making significant changes to ventilation. I believe the proposed CDC change does specify that you can only go to 3 feet if masks are worn.

Whatever it is. That wasn't supposed to be a list of needed things just possible things.

We'll see what they announce. I'm assuming it will have something that's required when the distance is removed. If it's nothing, back to eat that post.

 

[GoofGoof]

Cruise lines are a bit different though. You are going to other countries who could honestly care less what Florida does or does not require. If a port of call is in a country that requires it the cruise line would need to honor that if they are going to sail there.

Now for Disney World itself, you may have a point but we won’t know until/if they try it.

That’s why the airlines have said they are more OK with vaccine requirements for international travel since it’s better to have some customers than none if it’s required on the other end. They have no desire to see vaccines mandated for domestic flights.

 

[GimpYancIent]

The best thing cruises could ever do is require proof of a stool sample clear of noravirus and rotavirus prior to embarking... which probably isn't feasible, but it would be nice.

Hey! One stop shop! Since they will have a stool sample a check for cancer can be done. Back to reality, the cruise industry does not have a good record for disease mitigation. It is one industry, due to its international scope, that must be health conscious detailed and cautious.

 

[GoofGoof]

Whatever it is. That wasn't supposed to be a list of needed things just possible things.

We'll see what they announce. I'm assuming it will have something that's required when the distance is removed. If it's nothing, back to eat that post.

Masks, but they were required already a lot of places. My kid’s schools were already doing the masks and distancing as far apart as possible but not necessarily 6 feet. In the classroom they were already less than 6 feet apart. They say they have no plans to change the 6 foot distance for eating but they are converting gym space to comply once they go back to 5 days a week with no hybrid.

 

[MisterPenguin]

At the current dose production schedule, the U.S. can give away 40M doses of AZA and still have enough doses for 100% of 16+ y.o. at the end of May.

About that time, 40M doses are arriving every 10 days, not counting AZA or Novavax.

 

[DCBaker]

The portal opens this afternoon to register for next week.

Editing to correct - registration now opens on Monday, March 22nd.




http://ocfl.net/vaccine

 

[mmascari]

After working in a primary care provider's office for over a decade, we were NEVER contacted by any of the surrounding schools to verify the vaccination records we provided to many patients and their families. Maybe it is unworkable to have an expectation that vaccine-passports will be any more stringently double-checked. Theater here it comes.

I wouldn't expect it either. If all the patients go to the various local school systems, they know what the forms look like, what's real, they've got tons of examples that are all the same. A fake would stand out. It would have to be some some patient that moves away and registers for an out of area school. Even then, unless something looked really funky with what was presented they probably wouldn't call. Maybe do a phone book or web lookup that the form was from a real doctor. There just isn't enough incentive to lie for that type of use compared to the risk of a lie being found out later. All those things would have to go bad for someone to call, funky form presented to school out of area that's doesn't match a simple lookup and from someone taking the risk they'll get kicked out of school for faking it.

Getting to go to a movie or restaurant and not need to use any obnoxious mitigation measures with zero repercussion for lying? Sure, I went to a mass vaccination by my in-laws in another state while helping them. That's why my CDC form looks different than everyone else. Is the person working the door going to make a scene?

That's not an accurate assessment of liability. If the venue didn't "screw up," they're not liable. I assume you're talking about a negligence action. No business stands as an absolute insurer against something going wrong - they are only held to a specific standard of care. The vaccine passport company will presumably adopt procedures to ensure the accuracy of the information given them, and those procedures should be sufficient to withstand most attempts to subvert it. If they are negligent in adopting substandard procedures, there could be liability, assuming all other legal requirements are met. If they fail to accurately carry out those procedures, there could be liability. But the fact that someone found a way around the system, in and of itself, is not enough to establish liability.

They may totally win. The should win. They should pin the liability on the person that lied. But, they're going to get sued. They've got the money.

Where we are today, with a 40,000,000+ fully vaccinated and NONE of them have suitable proof that cannot be easily faked. There are distributed back end disparate records that could provide that proof, but it'll be super expensive to leverage the information.

It's that expense that's the problem and the effort to take it on. For international travel, where you already have the expense of a passport, and maybe even a visa, it's a different calculation. I think we'll have them there, those systems can afford the cost. Anything that can leverage those systems can also take advantage then. But, nobody in the US is going to get a real passport or update it with vaccine information just to go out to dinner.

Hopefully we'll have enough people vaccinated that transmission falls through the floor long before the work to do all the Vaccine Passport steps could even be completed. Which is part of the reason to not bother. By the time the system was built and the data vetted, it wouldn't even be needed. Optimistic here, we're good by summer. More pessimistic, it's takes till winter. Most possible pessimistic, we never get there, then the work required and cost for passport would start to make sense.

 

[GoofGoof]

So 2 weeks to go in March. Here is where we stand on vaccine deliveries:

Pfizer 72,885,345 (120M projected)
Moderna 74,077,400 (100M projected)
JnJ. 4,145,700 (20M projected)

Thats a total of 151,108,445 doses delivered. 35,378,437 of the doses delivered have not been administered yet. It looks unlikely that Pfizer will deliver 120M doses by March 31. It looks possible that Moderna will come pretty close to 100M. JnJ had some sort of temporary setback so unclear if they will rally and deliver 16M in the next 2 weeks. Seems unlikely. It appears that we will be closer to 200M total delivered vs the 240M originally projected. While that’s only 85% of the projection it‘s still a big number considering we were just under 100M at the end of Feb and could double that in a month. Pfizer also upped their number to 120M while keeping the May 31 number at 200M so we have time to make up the 20M short fall. Numbers have ramped up during March so far so we should still be on pace to have 300M Pfizer/Moderna by May 1 and 40-50M JnJ. Enough doses for potentially 200M people or 80% of eligible adults.