Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Lilofan]

What does Disney and the Cruise lines do for those people who can not get the vaccine for health reasons?

That is an interesting question no one really brings up.

Set up a policy ? like but not related to denying boarding to a pregnant female in their 8-9 month. There was a YouTube video when a pregnant female was denied boarding on her Disney cruise for this DCL policy. No proof of vaccine = no boarding the ship.

 

[Mark52479]

Set up a policy ? like but not related to denying boarding to a pregnant female in their 8-9 month. There was a YouTube video when a pregnant female was denied boarding on her Disney cruise for this DCL policy. No proof of vaccine = no boarding the ship.

That could open up can of worms though. Thats where these state legislators could come in make a law saying Disney CAN NOT require vaccines.

These companies are going to want to make it effortless as possible. There has to be a way to do it where it wont cause too much hassle.

 

[mmascari]

If this new announcement doesn't come with nuance that it only applies when masks are worn and not in situations where masks are off, such as while eating, I will eat this post. Probably with some hot sauce.

 

[dreday3]

If this new announcement doesn't come with nuance that it only applies when masks are worn and not in situations where masks are off, such as while eating, I will eat this post. Probably with some hot sauce.

So then it is just for schools, interesting!

 

[mmascari]

A vaccine passport would indicate that they are exempt for unspecified but authenticated reasons.

How do we envision this authentication is done?

I don't mean some fancy QR code smart phone app that's shown where someone scans it with an app it displays a picture of my face with a big green thumbs up.

I mean, how is the authentication done that gets my record into that database? How am I going to prove to that entity that I've been vaccinated?

Once we know that, the next question is, what's the special value I'm getting by having the proof?

Concerts, movie theaters, restaurants?
Visitation to nursing home and long term care facilities?
Crossing state lines? (not likely)
Crossing international borders?

Finally, what's my personal risk for lying and how hard is it for me to lie? Not the risk I cause to others by lying, but the risk to myself.

What's the risk and liability that's taken on by the entity giving me the special treatment if I lie?


All those things have an interaction with each other.

If I'm creating a very small liability for the entity giving me the special treatment by lying, then they don't care that much about how robust my initial proof creating my credential was.

If I'm creating a sizable liability for them, they're going to want robust proof. The credentialing organization could indemnify the group giving me the special treatment. Assuming they're big enough to accept that liability, then only they would care how robust my proof was.

They could force the liability back onto me, but really nobody impacted is going to sue just me. That's a paper risk transfer that falls apart fast.


The CDC card people are getting now, is NOT robust proof of vaccination.

 

[DCBaker]

Waited 5 hours in a “waste avoidance” line and ended up getting my first dose of the Moderna vaccine!

 

[Mark52479]

How do we envision this authentication is done?

I don't mean some fancy QR code smart phone app that's shown where someone scans it with an app it displays a picture of my face with a big green thumbs up.

I mean, how is the authentication done that gets my record into that database? How am I going to prove to that entity that I've been vaccinated?

Once we know that, the next question is, what's the special value I'm getting by having the proof?

Concerts, movie theaters, restaurants?
Visitation to nursing home and long term care facilities?
Crossing state lines? (not likely)
Crossing international borders?

Finally, what's my personal risk for lying and how hard is it for me to lie? Not the risk I cause to others by lying, but the risk to myself.

What's the risk and liability that's taken on by the entity giving me the special treatment if I lie?


All those things have an interaction with each other.

If I'm creating a very small liability for the entity giving me the special treatment by lying, then they don't care that much about how robust my initial proof creating my credential was.

If I'm creating a sizable liability for them, they're going to want robust proof. The credentialing organization could indemnify the group giving me the special treatment. Assuming they're big enough to accept that liability, then only they would care how robust my proof was.

They could force the liability back onto me, but really nobody impacted is going to sue just me. That's a paper risk transfer that falls apart fast.


The CDC card people are getting now, is NOT robust proof of vaccination.

Yeah those CDC cards can be faked in a matter of minutes.

Lots of logistics would need to be worked out if these Vaccine Passports become a thing.

 

[HarperRose]

What does Disney and the Cruise lines do for those people who can not get the vaccine for health reasons?

That is an interesting question no one really brings up.

No exceptions, period. No vaccination, no visit to WDW or cruise.

(Of course, this is all hypothetical, because we know Disney and DCL will never turn anyone's money down.)

 

[Mark52479]

No exceptions, period. No vaccination, no visit to WDW or cruise.

(Of course, this is all hypothetical, because we know Disney and DCL will never turn anyone's money down.)

Exactly. They would never do that

 

[GoofGoof]

How is this any different than the chorus of “Americans will never wear masks to WDW” or “Americans will not tolerate lockdowns” we‘ve heard from the beginning? Lots of folks here taking what they’d probably describe as a “realistic” perspective. Maybe it’s realistic to say “Americans won’t want vaccine passports,” but that attitude in the population is also selfish, short-sighted, and ignorant. Not shooting the messenger(s) here, this is just another chapter in ongoing frustration with Americans who can’t be bothered to think beyond themselves to the wellbeing of our communities.

Vaccine passports would really help facilitate relaxing restrictions on American businesses—especially small businesses (who can’t afford to turn people away even if it results in an unsafe environment) those that serve an international clientele (we don’t have national records on who’s been vaccinated in other countries).

Many people did not tolerate lockdowns. Many people also did not go to WDW because of the mask mandates and other Covid protocols. Just like the airlines, Disney wants no part of having to require vaccines. It’s bad for business. Masks were a means to an end to get the parks at least partially open. Disney wants a real return to normal not another stop gap.

What’s the purpose of a vaccine passport? On one hand if the rationale is a public health one to keep businesses, theme parks, cruise ships to only vaccinated people I can see the appeal. If the rationale is to punish people who aren’t vaccinated and/or reward people who are I can also see the appeal, but it will never fly in this country. I’ll address option B first since it’s the easiest, the government isn’t going to create a system to be punitive and it’s bad business to alienate a portion of your customer base so for most businesses it’s a hard pass.

So on to option A which is that it’s done as a public health measure. If that’s the rationale you can’t allow exceptions. So until everyone has full access to the vaccine you couldn’t implement a vaccine passport system. Right now we are looking at Fall at the earliest and possibly end of year before kids are approved. Then you have the issue of the medically ineligible. A small group but that would still need to be addressed. Again, it’s all theater if you just exempt kids or the medically compromised. Either it’s unsafe to be open unless everyone is vaccinated or it’s not. For WDW they won’t require a vaccine passport and rule out children under 12 potentially until 2022. They would also be ruling out any other customer who isn’t vaccinated. That would only be an appealing option if there was no alternative, which isn’t true.

I think most businesses would prefer to have their business open to everyone. I know airlines came out strongly in opposition to vaccine‘s being required to fly and I imagine Disney would be strongly opposed too. They want a chance to maximize business. The exception is probably cruise lines and international flights since some business is better than none for them. They will take a vaccine passport as a means to an end to be open at all. There’s no reason Disney would need to do that for their parks since they are already open. It’s much better for business if the Covid cases drop low enough that we can just have businesses open without restrictions and hopefully without masks and distancing. Requiring a vaccine passport would only work in a worst case, apocalyptic scenario where the Covid cases are so bad it’s the only way to open things. It would be a stop gap to getting to full open.

 

[Mark52479]

Many people did not tolerate lockdowns. Many people also did not go to WDW because of the mask mandates and other Covid protocols. Just like the airlines, Disney wants no part of having to require vaccines. It’s bad for business. Masks were a means to an end to get the parks at least partially open. Disney wants a real return to normal not another stop gap.

What’s the purpose of a vaccine passport? On one hand if the rationale is a public health one to keep businesses, theme parks, cruise ships to only vaccinated people I can see the appeal. If the rationale is to punish people who aren’t vaccinated and/or reward people who are I can also see the appeal, but it will never fly in this country. I’ll address option B first since it’s the easiest, the government isn’t going to create a system to be punitive and it’s bad business to alienate a portion of your customer base so for most businesses it’s a hard pass.

So on to option A which is that it’s done as a public health measure. If that’s the rationale you can’t allow exceptions. So until everyone has full access to the vaccine you couldn’t implement a vaccine passport system. Right now we are looking at Fall at the earliest and possibly end of year before kids are approved. Then you have the issue of the medically ineligible. A small group but that would still need to be addressed. Again, it’s all theater if you just exempt kids or the medically compromised. Either it’s unsafe to be open unless everyone is vaccinated or it’s not. For WDW they won’t require a vaccine passport and rule out children under 12 potentially until 2022. They would also be ruling out any other customer who isn’t vaccinated. That would only be an appealing option if there was no alternative, which isn’t true.

I think most businesses would prefer to have their business open to everyone. I know airlines came out strongly in opposition to vaccine‘s being required to fly and I imagine Disney would be strongly opposed too. They want a chance to maximize business. The exception is probably cruise lines and international flights since some business is better than none for them. They will take a vaccine passport as a means to an end to be open at all. There’s no reason Disney would need to do that for their parks since they are already open. It’s much better for business if the Covid cases drop low enough that we can just have businesses open without restrictions and hopefully without masks and distancing. Requiring a vaccine passport would only work in a worst case, apocalyptic scenario where the Covid cases are so bad it’s the only way to open things. It would be a stop gap to getting to full open.

yup

perfectly said IMO.

 

[mmascari]

So then it is just for schools, interesting!

I would completely support a change form 6 to 3 in all situations that include whatever other conditions must also be true.

If that's:
Anytime masks are worn.
Anytime the entire group is tested every 7 days or less.
Whenever ventilation meets some goal. (All air changed every 5 minutes maybe.)
Whatever other mitigations are replacing the distance mitigation instead.

I wouldn't suggest something was just for school. It should be tied to what other mitigations efforts replace distance to achieve the same type of goals. Anyplace that can implement mitigations efforts in place of distance, should be allowed to reduce the distance mitigation. They should give us those exposure goals and the different mitigation options that can be used to achieve them.

It's why I never (rarely) say "masks" and always say "mitigation" in posts. The goal is stop virus exposures. Whatever combination is correct for the situation should be used. For instance, I never wear a mask when I walk the dog. We live in an open neighborhood and it's completely possible to stay 6 feet (or more) away from anyone. Sometimes we walk the dog on trails at the local park and I wear one then typically. The park is busier with lots of people. Between the parking lot and crowded trails it's frequently impossible to maintain distance all the time. If it's a really off hour, I might have it but only put on in the busy areas, since distance is possible then.

 

[_caleb]

How do we envision this authentication is done?

I don't mean some fancy QR code smart phone app that's shown where someone scans it with an app it displays a picture of my face with a big green thumbs up.

I mean, how is the authentication done that gets my record into that database? How am I going to prove to that entity that I've been vaccinated?

Once we know that, the next question is, what's the special value I'm getting by having the proof?

Concerts, movie theaters, restaurants?
Visitation to nursing home and long term care facilities?
Crossing state lines? (not likely)
Crossing international borders?

Finally, what's my personal risk for lying and how hard is it for me to lie? Not the risk I cause to others by lying, but the risk to myself.

What's the risk and liability that's taken on by the entity giving me the special treatment if I lie?


All those things have an interaction with each other.

If I'm creating a very small liability for the entity giving me the special treatment by lying, then they don't care that much about how robust my initial proof creating my credential was.

If I'm creating a sizable liability for them, they're going to want robust proof. The credentialing organization could indemnify the group giving me the special treatment. Assuming they're big enough to accept that liability, then only they would care how robust my proof was.

They could force the liability back onto me, but really nobody impacted is going to sue just me. That's a paper risk transfer that falls apart fast.


The CDC card people are getting now, is NOT robust proof of vaccination.

Great thoughts and questions!

We already do something like this for enrollment in public schools. You must be vaccinated, and provide “proof“ of that vaccination (usually in the form of a form/letter from a physician) in order to attend. Some states allow certain exemptions (religious, philosophical, etc.), others do not. These go into a student’s record.

For COVID vaccinations, we have a database of who has been vaccinated. Secure access to this database (by those who are checking passports, not by passport carriers) would be pretty effective at preventing forgeries. Right now most places that check our IDs really just trust that the card we show them (driver’s license, ID card, etc.) is real and valid. But if say, a cruise operator or concert organizer checked that ID against a national database of who’s been vaccinated, that’d be pretty foolproof.

The “benefit” is participation. If it was simple/streamlined/reliable enough, we could use vaccine passports for all sorts of public events and gatherings (as you mention): sporting events, concerts, international travel—even restaurants, recreational facilities, gyms, etc. Private businesses could set their own policies for who is allowed inside. Remember when restaurants used to have ”smoking” and “non-smoking” sections? Creative businesses could figure that out and assume whatever liability they’re comfortable with. Stores could have “vaccinated-only” hours or locations.

Liability would be in whether or not the venue checked vaccine status of each person who passed through the turnstiles. If they say they check status but don’t, they could be fined. Too many missed checks, and they could be shut down (similar to restaurants that fail inspections, or concert venues that fail to follow occupancy limits). If they advertise as “no vaccine check required,” that’s their choice, but they’d have to notify the public about that. Some patrons might go elsewhere.

 

[_caleb]

If that’s the rationale you can’t allow exceptions.

Why not? Public health isn’t all or nothing. A few exemptions makes the system less safe, but it doesn’t raise the risk to equal no vaccine checks at all.

Either it’s unsafe to be open unless everyone is vaccinated or it’s not.

100% vaccination would be the most safe. A few unvaccinated people is less safe than that, but not as unsafe as nobody vaccinated. Maybe I’m misunderstanding.

I think most businesses would prefer to have their business open to everyone.

Absolutely! But isn’t it like restaurant health inspections in this regard? Restaurants don’t like health inspections, but they certainly don’t want to get a low grade (in those municipalities that publicly post those) or be closed by the Health Department. And when they get an A grade, the turn that into a selling point—just like Disney has done with their mitigation infrastructure and protocols, right?

 

[mmascari]

We already do something like this for enrollment in public schools. You must be vaccinated, and provide “proof“ of that vaccination (usually in the form of a form/letter from a physician) in order to attend. Some states allow certain exemptions (religious, philosophical, etc.), others do not. These go into a student’s record.

The school likely knows all the local providers and gets many forms to cross check. They can take the time to look up and validate it too. But, really the reward is getting to enroll in school and the personal risk if found lying is getting kicked out. There's not any incentive to lie and the robustness to checking is more than the random form.

For COVID vaccinations, we have a database of who has been vaccinated.

We do? That's news.

We have some statistics databases for sure, but that's not to a person. We have county databases for people who got vaccinated by the county. We have pharmacy databases for people vaccinated by them. I'm not aware of any massive single US wide database with personal level details tracking vaccination. Probably more like we have 3,000 databases tracking specifically who's been vaccinated and none of them are designed to support using them to check randomly. They're probably not designed to get the data out to feed some new system either. Pharmacies are definitely constrained on how they share this information.

Liability would be in whether or not the venue checked vaccine status of each person who passed through the turnstiles. If they say they check status but don’t, they could be fined. Too many missed checks, and they could be shut down (similar to restaurants that fail inspections, or concert venues that fail to follow occupancy limits). If they advertise as “no vaccine check required,” that’s their choice, but they’d have to notify the public about that. Some patrons might go elsewhere.

Think bigger, liability lawyers are thinking bigger.

Nanna picks up a variant the vaccine is less effective against. She's vulnerable, but it was her 98th birthday and the venue was vaccinated only people so it sounded safe. Nanna gets sick, and less effective combined with all her other issues creates a poor outcome. (Lets face it, Nanna was a goner anyway, the COVID was just a bonus.) They contact trace and find she picked up COVID at the Vaccine Passport protected venue and her family sues the venue for all the money. The venue didn't screw up, they checked everyone correctly, they were lied to by someone who got to eat dinner and then split.

That's the liability the venue has accepted.

They've accepted this liability on the off chance that someone doesn't fake a CDC card and call it proof so they can eat dinner out.

Doesn't feel like a good trade off, liability wise, for the venue.


If we replace some random venue with a country, the metric changes. A county can accept that liability risk and they can add resources to create a better record of proof for international travelers. A country also doesn't need to be "fair", they don't have to care if the vaccine is available to everyone or not.

 

[GimpYancIent]

No exceptions, period. No vaccination, no visit to WDW or cruise.

(Of course, this is all hypothetical, because we know Disney and DCL will never turn anyone's money down.)

50 / 50. WDW current protocols are just fine. However cruises absolutely need to be stringent / no breaks.

 

[mmascari]

Why not? Public health isn’t all or nothing. A few exemptions makes the system less safe, but it doesn’t raise the risk to equal no vaccine checks at all.

Not really all vaccinated anymore than is it?

100% vaccination would be the most safe. A few unvaccinated people is less safe than that, but not as unsafe as nobody vaccinated. Maybe I’m misunderstanding.

Low community spread is the safest, however we get there.

One presumes the entire purpose for a Vaccine Passport is to have activities with no mitigation items at all, or where any mitigation items are not possible. So, throw in a few infectious people, and it depends on how high that percentage gets and the total size to know if it's an issue or not.

If that's not the goal, and those activities are still going to include all the mitigation items, then what's the point of the passport?

 

[MaryJaneP]

If some individuals refuse to wear masks, and, despite businesses posting on their entry door(s) "No Mask, No Service", can we realistically expect people or businesses to rely upon only catering to vaccine-passport carriers? Masks cost pennies apiece, do vaccine-passports and the system needed to access/verify them?

 

[mmascari]

50 / 50. WDW current protocols are just fine. However cruises absolutely need to be stringent / no breaks.

Are there any cruises with all US ports?

Aren't they all international travel? Hence, subjected to whatever internal travel restrictions are between destinations. That will probably take care of the requirements and how they're implemented too.

 

[DCBaker]

Numbers are out - there were 94 new reported deaths, along with 5 Non-Florida Resident deaths.