Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[correcaminos]

I kind of wish he would just stay silent on the matter (well, I wish he would stay silent on everything and just fade away). Simply because he doesn't seem capable of saying anything that isn't a self-serving distortion. Ideally, he would put out a simple endorsement and encourage everyone to receive the vaccination as soon as they are eligible. But I think we all know he just isn't wired for something magnanimous or altruistic like that.

Maybe FOMO will provide the necessary push, kind of like the reason why people were lining up for flu shots a few years ago when it was reported that there was a shortage.

Polls and comments I have seen online show we do need his voice, like it or not. Don't really care at this point if it is based on lies and self fluff or not either as long as it isn't detrimental to vaccination of others.

 

[LaughingGravy]

For guests it’s possible at some point that they make their rule that you need to wear a mask unless you are vaccinated.

Vaccinated does not necessarily mean you are still not a spreader with any of the vaccines, yet. Perhaps, when there is more data, something definitive may be said about one or more vaccines.
That's another part of the problem. Once you are vaccinated it only decreases the chance that you will get severely sick or die. That's all it means.

 

[HarperRose]

There is a good faith argument to be had about how China tried to hide this outbreak from the world and suppressed scientists who tried to alert society and what the world should do about it; after we are done with this pandemic. That said reparations are not going to happen. The difference between 1918 and 2019 is we know a heck of a lot more about viruses and how to prevent plagues then we did back then and we could have potentially contained this illness if China was more forthcoming. Again, there will need to be discussions about what to do about it when this pandemic is over.

Don’t worry, the world is already getting ready for this. President Biden is set to meet next week with the leaders of India, Japan, and Australia; what exactly do you think is going to be discussed? China has already expressed outrage that those 4 are meeting at all.

It wouldn't have made a bit of difference how forthcoming China was or was not with information. Our fate was sealed on January 20, 2017.

 

[Touchdown]

Vaccinated does not necessarily mean you are still not a spreader with any of the vaccines, yet. Perhaps, when there is more data, something definitive may be said about one or more vaccines.
That's another part of the problem. Once you are vaccinated it only decreases the chance that you will get severely sick or die. That's all it means.

There is data, out of Israel, 90% reduction in asymptomatic cases. You can only be a spreader if you have presymptomatic/symptomatic (95% reduction of risk for vaccinated individuals) or asymptomatic (90% reduction for vaccinated individuals) infection.

That was for the Pfizer vaccine, but seeing as Moderna’s EUA suggested (but was not powered to make a full finding) very similar findings it’s probably safe to assume it’s for either mRNA vaccine.

 

[Chi84]

I don’t know how Disney could ever actually enforce a masks only for the unvaccinated rule, but that doesn’t mean they won’t do that. What I think is highly likely is that many employers will make that their rule, including Disney for workers. Employees can come back to work at an office or at a bar or at a factory or at WDW and no longer need to wear a mask if they get vaccinated. If you aren’t vaccinated you still need to wear a mask. An employer can absolutely legally ask you for proof of vaccination. Many people falsely think that HIPPA laws make it illegal for an employer to ask that, but that’s not true. HIPPA only prevents doctors and pharmacies from sharing your medical records without your permission. I think it would be a powerful tool to get people who are hesitant to get the vaccine to get one. If you have to wear a mask for a while longer without it most people would just get the vaccine.

For Disney I would expect them to require CMs to get the vaccine and if they don’t want to then they will either be shifted to non-customer facing roles or asked to continue wearing a mask. For guests it’s possible at some point that they make their rule that you need to wear a mask unless you are vaccinated. They could require you to answer a yes/no question on vaccination when buying a park ticket or booking a hotel room and then just layout the rule. People would be on the honor system to comply. It would be a legal CYA. If someone started an outbreak Disney could point to the rule and be at least partially covered. I don’t see Disney ever actively trying to enforce a mask rule only on unvaccinated people.

HIPAA, the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act, could be the most misunderstood law of all time (including its acronym) I've had people tell me in no uncertain terms that it is the "Health Information Privacy Protection Act," which would fit the acronym HIPPA, but would still be wrong since the name and applicability of the act are not matters of opinion. I like your briefly-stated, accurate explanation.

 

[HarperRose]

Different regions of the country took their turns being the hottest of hot spots, and not all of them were on the Mexican border.

What accounted for the surge in Wisconsin and Minnesota and North Dakota? Canadians crossing the border?

People still don't know Wisconsin does not share a land border with Canada?

 

[hopemax]

I find it ironic that you are accusing me of latching on to the best case while you consistently latch on to the worst case. As I said, we have no idea what level of people need to be vaccinated to drive cases low enough to cause us to start removing restrictions and ultimately reach herd immunity. I pointed out that many experts, including Fauci, have given higher estimates over time to ensure enough people get vaccinated. It could be that we need anywhere from 60-90% vaccinated so the range is quite large. The quote I referenced was from a CDC epidemiologist and was made during the JnJ approval process. The existence of variants was well known at the time so not excluded from that estimate. The reason I said I thought it was interesting is he did not say it was his opinion. He said his agency had a target vaccination rate of 60% to reach herd immunity. That’s different than a tweet or a sound bite from an interview where someone is giving their personal opinion. That’s also a percentage that‘s lower than average so I found it interesting. As I said, nobody really knows so any so called expert saying it will take X% is guessing.

We all heard the actual words from Biden. You are free to interpret that as no change to the time line. The ironic part is while you are saying it’s a fake return to normal and things won’t really change the people who oppose Biden are highly critical right now that the timeframe is too conservative. You can see that from the posts here too. The real changes will come from the CDC recommendations which are the basis for a lot of business’s rules including Disney parks. If they don’t change anything then not much will change. We are starting to see a move towards less restrictions for fully vaccinated people. Once we hit something like 70% of adults vaccinated do we start to see a shift to post vaccination rules becoming the normal? I think it’s at least partially linked to case numbers as well, but we have to reach a point where rules change based on the vast majority being immune.

No. I am not latching onto the worst case. I have repeatedly promoted caution, highlighted our lack of experience with pandemics and that steps on the list must be checked off, like the pre-flight checklist I mentioned a few days ago. What has happened is that my comments keep being interpreted as gloom and doom promoting a worst case scenario.

The actual worst case scenarios would not be “slow down” messaging but the ones in which we need 90%+ vaccination rates, a variant of concern erupts in one of the 7 billion people who have yet to be vaccinated that escapes immunity, immunity wears off... things like that.

I have consistently pushed back against the fears of the latter two. Only that we have to wait for the proof and not simply assume that something will be the case, on the timeline described by laypeople and get ahead of ourselves. The impact of going too fast is that it will end up slowing us down. Which will upset everyone. I do believe the herd immunity threshold is higher than people hope, because as I said before, I believe in math. We have confidence in the range of the transmissibility rate, and can make a calculation based on that, as someone else posted about. We can approximate. It makes no sense that with more transmissible variants than the original the threshold would go down. Except if it’s about messaging and not truth telling.

In Hollywood movie battles, there is often a guy shouting at the line to hold, to wait before charging. It’s always longer than others think it should be. That doesn’t equal defeatism and gloom and doom about the outcome. Impatience is an enemy, the same way denialism is. And with both, people claim they aren’t that at all. They believe they are just being optimistic.

 

[mattpeto]

Here we are. Over a year later since the lockdown.
Every time there is a plateau, or some other good news, like higher vaccine availability is coming(not here yet, but coming next month or weeks away), and even opening up capacity ( which I don't agree with until the numbers are lower, but businesses are hurting and I get that, so open up slowly, but for heavens sake keep the mask and distancing mandates), a lot of people take that as a sign to:

• Not worry about it, ignore mask and or/distancing rules still in place ( increased capacity does not negate distancing and mask rules/common sense when we now know how this is spread).
• Further justify not even an intent to get an available vaccine because others will get the vaccine, planning on being part of the 20%-30% who never get vaccinated
• Have "moral objections" to the source of the vaccine. Yes, I put that in quotes intended for the hypocrites who selectively pull that out while ignoring many other moral or religious issues that don't suit them either in the past or at the moment.
• Wear a mask loosely, not properly fitting to do the job and only a single layer.
• Not sanitizing or washing hands when in contact with things where you should be. Many did it in the beginning, but people get complacent.

It's been over a year.
For those who fit any or more of the above points, for those still objecting on the mask front, including those who rip off the mask the second they walk outside of a requiring store ( or not even all the way out of the store, or exposing their nose whenever possible, not even waiting until they get back in their car), this will continue and you are part of the problem. The rest of us are not.

Here in NJ, one of the hardest hit states at the beginning, we had beautiful weather this past weekend, and people everywhere were gathering at local little league games, on the streets, in parking lots, parks, walking, etc. with no distancing or masks.

In less than two weeks, our covid numbers and deaths will go up yet again. I'm hoping for a nice July 4th, but it's not going to happen unless we get everybody to cooperate.

Fellow resident in NJ here...

I think you're overselling the outdoor risks at the end of your post.

If you are outdoors, the virus doesn't spread as easily.

NJ numbers keep falling, let's hope for that.

 

[LaughingGravy]

There is data, out of Israel, 90% reduction in asymptomatic cases. You can only be a spreader if you have presymptomatic/symptomatic (95% reduction of risk for vaccinated individuals) or asymptomatic (90% reduction for vaccinated individuals) infection.

That was for the Pfizer vaccine, but seeing as Moderna’s EUA suggested (but was not powered to make a full finding) very similar findings it’s probably safe to assume it’s for either mRNA vaccine.

Probably safe to assume. Maybe, maybe not. Scientific data is needed. I am happy for the news.
But, what vaccine(s) is being used and who was tested when and how often. The whole picture needs to be seen.

Edit: Correction to above: Touchdown indicated Pfizer. But more data is still needed for the whole picture.

 

[danlb_2000]

Fellow resident in NJ here...

I think you're overselling the outdoor risks at the end of your post.

If you are outdoors, the virus doesn't spread as easily.

NJ numbers keep falling, let's hope for that.

NJ case numbers are not falling...

 

[Heppenheimer]

Fellow resident in NJ here...

I think you're overselling the outdoor risks at the end of your post.

If you are outdoors, the virus doesn't spread as easily.

NJ numbers keep falling, let's hope for that.

I'm cheering for you in particular, NJ. Mainly because I want to spend some time in Ocean City later this summer.

 

[hopemax]

Polls and comments I have seen online show we do need his voice, like it or not. Don't really care at this point if it is based on lies and self fluff or not either as long as it isn't detrimental to vaccination of others.

FWIW, there is an article in the Washington Post about an actual focus group where that turned out not be the case and they were surprised. Across the board, skeptics did not want to hear from a politician regardless of party affiliation. The only politician that the group felt positively toward was Chris Christie’s personal story about being sick.

They wondered if the negative reaction toward a potential message from Trump indicated a “moving on” by GOP voters. That it’s time to not see Trump’s face anymore, just like any other politician that has left office.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/03/15/vaccine-hesitant-republicans-focus-group/

 

[GoofGoof]

Vaccinated does not necessarily mean you are still not a spreader with any of the vaccines, yet. Perhaps, when there is more data, something definitive may be said about one or more vaccines.
That's another part of the problem. Once you are vaccinated it only decreases the chance that you will get severely sick or die. That's all it means.

The CDC has already revised their guidelines for fully vaccinated people to remove the quarantine requirements and restriction on indoor gatherings. Per the studies that are out there the risk of infection or spreading Covid is very low once vaccinated. That’s why they updated the guidelines and are preparing further updates on travel once fully vaccinated.

 

[correcaminos]

FWIW, there is an article in the Washington Post about an actual focus group where that turned out not be the case and they were surprised. Across the board, skeptics did not want to hear from a politician regardless of party affiliation. The only politician that the group felt positively toward was Chris Christie’s personal story about being sick.

They wondered if the negative reaction toward a potential message from Trump indicated a “moving on” by GOP voters. That it’s time to not see Trump’s face anymore, just like any other politician that has left office.

Interesting (I'm out of free wapo articles so must have missed it). Might be too late then. I should say in the past it has been shown to help. Wonder what we can do to help then.

Related but not...

US prison guards refusing vaccine despite COVID-19 outbreaks

A Florida correctional officer polled his colleagues earlier this year in a private Facebook group: “Will you take the COVID-19 vaccine if offered?”

apnews.com

 

[mattpeto]

NJ case numbers are not falling...

View attachment 539685

Same webpage shows Active Cases dropping. I guess it depends on your POV, but I agree it would be nice for both graphs to be dropping.

Wife is in healthcare, it's been a steady drop at her hospital. Still ways to go.

I'm cheering for you in particular, NJ. Mainly because I want to spend some time in Ocean City later this summer.

We went last August and we will be back this August.

 

[DisneyFan32]

NJ case numbers are not falling...

View attachment 539685

Is NJ is going down cases if all people are vaccinating faster by May/June/July?

 

[LaughingGravy]

Fellow resident in NJ here...

I think you're overselling the outdoor risks at the end of your post.

If you are outdoors, the virus doesn't spread as easily.

NJ numbers keep falling, let's hope for that.

Yes, it doesn't spread as easily outdoors. That's not the same as not spreading. Keep up the distancing and still wear a mask until the numbers go down really significantly. That's one of the kinds of plateaus.
A group of at least 7 little league kids were in very close quarters within 3 feet of each other, outdoors with an adult coach telling them something, all with masks clearly off. Let's say he's vaccinated. I don't know of a single kid vaccinated yet. Either the coach or one of the kids could be a spreader. They go home. They don't wear a mask at home. Numbers go up.

 

[ABQ]

Interesting (I'm out of free wapo articles so must have missed it). Might be too late then. I should say in the past it has been shown to help. Wonder what we can do to help then.

Related but not...

US prison guards refusing vaccine despite COVID-19 outbreaks

A Florida correctional officer polled his colleagues earlier this year in a private Facebook group: “Will you take the COVID-19 vaccine if offered?”

apnews.com

Very interesting. MA, CA and RI are hardly GOP strongholds, though perhaps the prison staff are? I wouldn't think they all are. Maybe some.

 

[Lilofan]

is Fall/Winter we will go back to normal as pandemic ends in USA?

I think you've asked the same question in various forms throughout the weeks.

 

[correcaminos]

Very interesting. MA, CA and RI are hardly GOP strongholds, though perhaps the prison staff are? I wouldn't think they all are. Maybe some.

No idea tbh. I wouldn't be shocked if a political leaning a few directions, but I cannot say for sure. Just found the article interesting. Knowing why some are against could maybe help combat against it though.