Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DisneyDebRob]

My inlaws are in PA. They got their first shots and were due for the second shot this wednesday but they still haven't been able to get an appointment. They were told that they were still waiting for a shipment.

"Vaccine tourism" was ended a few weeks ago so unless you are a snowbird with a residence of some type in FL, your drive would be a waste of gas and time unless you stop by WDW.

The counties in PA are getting shorted every week. There’s a news story or report every day on it. We are looking in Jersey and anywhere within a few hours north of us. Nothing. I can wait just getting itchy.

 

[Touchdown]

Pareto analysis says 20% of the population (statistics, not people) is responsible for 80% of the problems, therefore if you fix the 20% it should clear up 80%.

Medically it might not be fully transitional but the method is tried, tested and.... true.

That’s a theoretical construct to think of problem solving solutions not an analysis. I already said that vaccinating seniors does lower deaths and hospitalization faster. However, now that they are so low it’s time to focus on transmission which is still too darn high. Hitting essential workers next should dramatically improve this.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Even these guys got a appointment..I must be way back on the list.

Redirect Notice

 

[Crunchie9]

Just finished my final payment for Rack rate package at POP for December 10-20, 2021.

The dining room disclaimer has been removed (the one in pink) and now the dining plan shows up on the My plans section, but the message simply says cant add at this time.... soooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo It is looking like things are happening at Disney... Anyone know if CM are getting called back/hiring blitz going on in FLA?

This Canadian cannot wait to Rise of the resistance against COVID, one Disney ride at a time. LEYYYYYYGOOOOOOOO

 

[Crunchie9]

That’s a theoretical construct to think of problem solving solutions not an analysis. I already said that vaccinating seniors does lower deaths and hospitalization faster. However, now that they are so low it’s time to focus on transmission which is still too darn high. Hitting essential workers next should dramatically improve this.

I dont know what the numbers are, but I think the largest impact for what you are trying to acheieve is to prick the largest group of infections and work backwards. The media might not like it, but honestly, I think that would have the greatest impact.

Our health care workers here and PSW ect have all gotten the prick.

 

[ABQ]

Just finished my final payment for Rack rate package at POP for December 10-20, 2021.

The dining room disclaimer has been removed (the one in pink) and now the dining plan shows up on the My plans section, but the message simply says cant add at this time.... soooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo It is looking like things are happening at Disney... Anyone know if CM are getting called back/hiring blitz going on in FLA?

This Canadian cannot wait to Rise of the resistance against COVID, one Disney ride at a time. LEYYYYYYGOOOOOOOO

If/When they actually open the border again, that's the huge question mark that needs answering. I have friends in Alberta itching to go to Vegas as well is WDW.

 

[HuffsAhoy]

Anyone know if CM are getting called back/hiring blitz going on in FLA?

I am under the impression CMs are being called back on an as-needed basis, not on a blitz-like schedule.

 

[Touchdown]

I dont know what the numbers are, but I think the largest impact for what you are trying to acheieve is to prick the largest group of infections and work backwards. The media might not like it, but honestly, I think that would have the greatest impact.

Our health care workers here and PSW ect have all gotten the prick.

We have done that and continue to do that, 55% of all seniors in the US have started. Polling suggests only 60-70% of Americans want the vaccine right away. When you get close to the total in a group that want it, it’s time to open up to the next group especially if you approve a new vaccine and get an increase in shipments from the other two at the same time.

THERE IS NOTHING EVIL ABOUT THIS. The only group of people who should be mad is the other essential workers who are being deprioritized compared to teachers, that is a political move, but a minor one to remove all roadblocks to getting schools around the nation to reopen so it’s a bit bowing to a powerful special interest group and a bit of realpolitik. However, teachers should have (along with other essential workers) been starting vaccinations now anyways. DeSantis was delaying it to “stick it to the libs” and (through special state pop up sites) target his base.

 

[DisneyCane]

Actually, this isn’t settled. What you said is right, vaccinating the most vulnerable will lower the death rate faster, however you can make the argument that since most seniors have likely been following stay at home orders and avoiding a lot of human contact we haven’t structured our vaccinations priorities to lower transmission the fastest, at least not since group 1A. Targeting essential workers (people who have to go to work in person for the good of society) will target vaccinating the people most likely to contract Covid and thus reduce cases quicker. I also don’t know why you are complaining, before this edict Florida was one of the few states that hadn’t moved on to essential workers, and while it adds more people to the pool, vaccine distribution was also increased dramatically this week. 54% of people in Florida over age 65 have started vaccinations per the last report. Most states have used the 50% to trigger opening the next group. It’s sound policy.

From my other post, 84% of the fatalities were people 65 and over. That is with them taking more precautions. You're not going to reduce cases appreciably faster by targeting the people in the more likely to spread it age group because of the limited vaccine supply.

If you were to hypothetically have given all doses so far to all people in FL 16-55, you'd have begun the series on approximately 31% of the "spreading age" population. That is less than half of what would be required to get to herd immunity. Vaccinating 54% of the 65+ population has saved a lot more lives.

Targeting 65+, you'll get to 100% (of those who want it) protected several weeks before you could get an appreciable decrease in spread from the "spreading age" population, just based on doses available. Let's say FL is averaging 130 deaths per day, every week sooner that you can cut out 70% of fatalities (based on a realistic acceptance rate of the vaccine), that is over 600 lives per week saved for every week that it would take for the "spreading population" to get to some kind of pseudo herd immunity.

In this exercise, it is unrealistically assumed that the 65+ population doesn't spread it amongst themselves, which they certainly do.

To me, it is settled. If the goal is to reduce the most serious impacts as quickly as possible, the only way to prioritize a limited vaccine supply is to target 65+ and people deemed extremely vulnerable by a physician first.

 

[DisneyCane]

I dont know what the numbers are, but I think the largest impact for what you are trying to acheieve is to prick the largest group of infections and work backwards. The media might not like it, but honestly, I think that would have the greatest impact.

Our health care workers here and PSW ect have all gotten the prick.

The issue is that with the current limitations on vaccine supply, the largest group of infections is too large to target and reach a level of vaccination high enough to put a big enough dent in the spread.

Healthcare workers with direct patient contact are at much higher risk of getting infected than most groups. People (like my wife) treat known positive and symptomatic COVID patients in very close proximity for sometimes hours at a time.

Even if they are in age and health groups which make it unlikely for serious outcomes, if they test positive, they have to miss work to isolate. Too many testing positive can create healthcare capacity issues just like too many COVID patients. That's why it made sense to give them the highest priority.

 

[Touchdown]

From my other post, 84% of the fatalities were people 65 and over. That is with them taking more precautions. You're not going to reduce cases appreciably faster by targeting the people in the more likely to spread it age group because of the limited vaccine supply.

If you were to hypothetically have given all doses so far to all people in FL 16-55, you'd have begun the series on approximately 31% of the "spreading age" population. That is less than half of what would be required to get to herd immunity. Vaccinating 54% of the 65+ population has saved a lot more lives.

Targeting 65+, you'll get to 100% (of those who want it) protected several weeks before you could get an appreciable decrease in spread from the "spreading age" population, just based on doses available. Let's say FL is averaging 130 deaths per day, every week sooner that you can cut out 70% of fatalities (based on a realistic acceptance rate of the vaccine), that is over 600 lives per week saved for every week that it would take for the "spreading population" to get to some kind of pseudo herd immunity.

In this exercise, it is unrealistically assumed that the 65+ population doesn't spread it amongst themselves, which they certainly do.

To me, it is settled. If the goal is to reduce the most serious impacts as quickly as possible, the only way to prioritize a limited vaccine supply is to target 65+ and people deemed extremely vulnerable by a physician first.

We did that, and got 55% of that group vaccinated. We are never going to get to 100% in any group, 20% say they’ll never get it, and 10-20% still want to wait so it’s time to move on. Its not like the few people left in that group can’t get now, they still can but with the increase in distribution now occurring if you didn’t open more groups you would start to have open appointments you can’t fill. You want to put shots in arms ASAP. Therefore you open a new group before you get a lull in people signing up.

 

[GimpYancIent]

From my other post, 84% of the fatalities were people 65 and over. That is with them taking more precautions. You're not going to reduce cases appreciably faster by targeting the people in the more likely to spread it age group because of the limited vaccine supply.

If you were to hypothetically have given all doses so far to all people in FL 16-55, you'd have begun the series on approximately 31% of the "spreading age" population. That is less than half of what would be required to get to herd immunity. Vaccinating 54% of the 65+ population has saved a lot more lives.

Targeting 65+, you'll get to 100% (of those who want it) protected several weeks before you could get an appreciable decrease in spread from the "spreading age" population, just based on doses available. Let's say FL is averaging 130 deaths per day, every week sooner that you can cut out 70% of fatalities (based on a realistic acceptance rate of the vaccine), that is over 600 lives per week saved for every week that it would take for the "spreading population" to get to some kind of pseudo herd immunity.

In this exercise, it is unrealistically assumed that the 65+ population doesn't spread it amongst themselves, which they certainly do.

To me, it is settled. If the goal is to reduce the most serious impacts as quickly as possible, the only way to prioritize a limited vaccine supply is to target 65+ and people deemed extremely vulnerable by a physician first.

When everything finally gets to the point where any person can go to any clinic or pharmacy and receive the COVID19 vaccine (does not matter which one) upon request, with no bureaucratic hoops to jump through, we can then realistically talk normalization.

 

[DisneyCane]

We have done that and continue to do that, 55% of all seniors in the US have started. Polling suggests only 60-70% of Americans want the vaccine right away. When you get close to the total in a group that want it, it’s time to open up to the next group especially if you approve a new vaccine and get an increase in shipments from the other two at the same time.

THERE IS NOTHING EVIL ABOUT THIS. The only group of people who should be mad is the other essential workers who are being deprioritized compared to teachers, that is a political move, but a minor one to remove all roadblocks to getting schools around the nation to reopen so it’s a bit bowing to a powerful special interest group and a bit of realpolitik. However, teachers should have (along with other essential workers) been starting vaccinations now anyways. DeSantis was delaying it to “stick it to the libs” and (through special state pop up sites) target his base.

No matter what the polling suggests, the appointments were all being claimed BEFORE they were forced to allow teachers. That means the demand among the eligible groups was still exceeding the supply of appointments.

There was no "stick it to the libs" as he had already opened it to teachers 50+. He was the first to go against the Federal guidelines under the prior administration who wanted "essential workers" prioritized over 65-74. He has a strong belief (which I share) that the best approach is to vaccinate as many 65+ as possible first based on statistics.

Sure, it is a good group to prioritize from a political standpoint. All politicians from both parties do this every day at the Federal level. They are all always screaming about protecting social security and medicare benefits, two programs which give the vast majority (based on how long they live) back far more than they put in. Any reform proposals (almost always from Republicans) always begin with "this will not effect anybody who is over 45 today." They all know that it is political suicide not to please the senior citizen population.

 

[DisneyCane]

We did that, and got 55% of that group vaccinated. We are never going to get to 100% in any group, 20% say they’ll never get it, and 10-20% still want to wait so it’s time to move on. Its not like the few people left in that group can’t get now, they still can but with the increase in distribution now occurring if you didn’t open more groups you would start to have open appointments you can’t fill. You want to put shots in arms ASAP. Therefore you open a new group before you get a lull in people signing up.

There isn't any sign of a lull yet. Wait until the pace of sign ups show some kind of slowing and takes 3 hours instead of 1.5 to fill all of the Publix appointment slots.

 

[Touchdown]

There isn't any sign of a lull yet. Wait until the pace of sign ups show some kind of slowing and takes 3 hours instead of 1.5 to fill all of the Publix appointment slots.

That’s wasteful when you know supply is going to double in the next two weeks. There won’t be a lull, there will suddenly be no one left.

That’s like Disney refusing to go from 3 to 5 trains on BTMRR until the queue is out past TSI dock.

 

[GimpYancIent]

No matter what the polling suggests, the appointments were all being claimed BEFORE they were forced to allow teachers. That means the demand among the eligible groups was still exceeding the supply of appointments.

There was no "stick it to the libs" as he had already opened it to teachers 50+. He was the first to go against the Federal guidelines under the prior administration who wanted "essential workers" prioritized over 65-74. He has a strong belief (which I share) that the best approach is to vaccinate as many 65+ as possible first based on statistics.

Sure, it is a good group to prioritize from a political standpoint. All politicians from both parties do this every day at the Federal level. They are all always screaming about protecting social security and medicare benefits, two programs which give the vast majority (based on how long they live) back far more than they put in. Any reform proposals (almost always from Republicans) always begin with "this will not effect anybody who is over 45 today." They all know that it is political suicide not to please the senior citizen population.

There may be a lot of young teachers but there are a lot of teachers / professors in the older age group, yep! those currently eligible and receiving the vaccine. I do not see a teachers vs seniors issue.

 

[Patcheslee]

There isn't any sign of a lull yet. Wait until the pace of sign ups show some kind of slowing and takes 3 hours instead of 1.5 to fill all of the Publix appointment slots.

We still have appointments available today in our county up in Indiana. I'm tempted to head over after work and ask if they have extra.

 

[Crunchie9]

If/When they actually open the border again, that's the huge question mark that needs answering. I have friends in Alberta itching to go to Vegas as well is WDW.

Border is open. To avoid going to hotel jail for three nights at 2000$ each all you have to do is land in a border town, rent a car and drive over the border.

 

[Touchdown]

We still have appointments available today in our county up in Indiana. I'm tempted to head over after work and ask if they have extra.

Yup, the Midwest is crushing this. Iowa goes to 1c Monday, Wisconsin plans to announce the next group next week (and open it up soon after.) All you need to do is look at the map (from Bloomberg.) The Southeast (not including Florida,) and to a lesser extent the PNW is lagging behind the country. The Northern Rockies and Plains are the national leaders.

 

[coasterphil]

No matter what the polling suggests, the appointments were all being claimed BEFORE they were forced to allow teachers. That means the demand among the eligible groups was still exceeding the supply of appointments.

There was no "stick it to the libs" as he had already opened it to teachers 50+. He was the first to go against the Federal guidelines under the prior administration who wanted "essential workers" prioritized over 65-74. He has a strong belief (which I share) that the best approach is to vaccinate as many 65+ as possible first based on statistics.

Sure, it is a good group to prioritize from a political standpoint. All politicians from both parties do this every day at the Federal level. They are all always screaming about protecting social security and medicare benefits, two programs which give the vast majority (based on how long they live) back far more than they put in. Any reform proposals (almost always from Republicans) always begin with "this will not effect anybody who is over 45 today." They all know that it is political suicide not to please the senior citizen population.

The OCCC site has been sending texts almost every day stating they still have additional appointments available. They're only doing healthcare and 65+, so to me that means they've started to see demand slip in those groups. I know that's only one location, but that seems to signal that anyone 65+ who is really working to find an appointment should be able to secure one at this point. No they can't just walk into a pharmacy whenever they feel like it like for a flu shot, but you can't hold up the next group just because a certain percentage doesn't want to make the extra effort. They still have the advantage of being able to use any distribution site too.