I agree that we could ramp up to 5M on some days or more. It all depends on when the doses arrive. I was limiting it to 4M a day because that’s roughly 120M doses a month which is around the max number we will have to use in a month. 100M from Pfizer and Moderna starting in April and 30M from JnJ. I don’t think vaccine administration will be a lag it will either be not enough doses like now or not enough people.
I think once we hit April states will need to retool the vaccine approach. They will need to do more targeted vaccination clinic like churches and community centers as well as certain large employers. The goal will shift from vaccinating as many people as fast as we can to ensuring the demand doesn‘t dry up. I do think we could hit a slow down end of April into May. If the rollout goes as planned because those types of clinics are similar to the nursing homes and take more time to do than mass vaccination sites and pharmacy appointments.
Some reason to believe JNJ supply could explode by May when Merck production comes online.
I agree— we will need more of an outreach approach, getting pop up vaccination clinics out to the public, delivering vaccines into communities.
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