Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[hopemax]

Who says a prediction can’t realistically happen? I can take a series of financial data and run a model and predict the stock market will drop 20% this year. If the data I have is extensive and shows that trends point that way I could believe it might realistically happen. That doesn’t mean it will. Anytime you are dealing with models and projecting something that is in reality unpredictable there are going to be many, many possible outcomes. None of these experts are saying it’s certain these variants become dominant or that if they do they defeat the vaccines. In each case they are saying it might happen. The media and the public read those headlines and conclude it‘s certain to happen.

And what, pray tell, will be the mechanism from preventing it?

At this level of global case levels and vaccination levels, and US levels of mitigation, there isn't one. It demonstrates a flaw in the messaging that in the rush to stop people from freaking out about every variant that makes the news cycle, that one with the demonstrated characteristics like the UK variant, that someone conscientious like you would interpret, that at this point in the life cycle there is still a chance that it might not become dominant. It's just evolutionary biology, and math at this point. Saying it might not, is as naïve as saying the original Covid might not become a world wide problem because cases were low.

Experts and journalists are so self conscious about how their words get misused, that they put in all these qualifiers and few wanted to go on record with which one of the multiple variants of concern would be the one to come out of the biological death match, superior before we had documented surveillance of the growth rates of each. But people like Trevor Bedford have been using the words "will become dominant" regarding the UK variant, for the last two months and urging decision makers to prepare. The uncertainty being projected is way more about outcome. A variant of concern doesn't necessarily mean "bad outcome." That's what they want to emphasize, so people don't freak out. But if people interpret that the existing variant is going to somehow retain dominance, that's a messaging problem.

 

[GoofGoof]

Fixed it for you.

Vaccine availability on it's own has no impact on if mitigations are needed. Vaccine usage should drive cases and community spread low enough. Then, based on that, restrictions should come off. Graduated based on different levels for different restrictions.


We're definitely vaccine or bust, that's for sure. If we don't get enough to vaccinate that cases and spread decrease, we're going to bust. Until then, even vaccinated people should be following mitigations. We want vaccinated people exposed to the virus at little as possible. Even with all the mitigations in place, there's still plenty of exposures happening, otherwise transmission would drop off even more.

You misunderstood my post. This has nothing to do with science or what we should do to prevent spread of the virus. I’m just calling it as I see it these days. If Biden’s projection is true and if every adult has been vaccinated by end of May most people are not going to sit out July 4th again this year and not see family and not go to church and not go on vacations this Summer. It’s just not going to happen even if people say it should. Bars won’t stay closed, restaurants won’t continue take out only or limited indoor seating. Do you really think the masses are going to agree to continue stay at home conditions if they are vaccinated but cases don’t drop to near zero? It won’t happen.

I agree with you and I am hopeful it won’t matter because the basics of infectious disease tell me that if we take 75% of possible hosts out of circulation it’s unlikely that cases don’t drop and with that hospitalizations and deaths.

 

[GoofGoof]

And what, pray tell, will be the mechanism from preventing it?

At this level of global case levels and vaccination levels, and US levels of mitigation, there isn't one. It demonstrates a flaw in the messaging that in the rush to stop people from freaking out about every variant that makes the news cycle, that one with the demonstrated characteristics like the UK variant, that someone conscientious like you would interpret, that at this point in the life cycle there is still a chance that it might not become dominant. It's just evolutionary biology, and math at this point. Saying it might not, is as naïve as saying the original Covid might not become a world wide problem because cases were low.

Experts and journalists are so self conscious about how their words get misused, that they put in all these qualifiers and few wanted to go on record with which one of the multiple variants of concern would be the one to come out of the biological death match, superior before we had documented surveillance of the growth rates of each. But people like Trevor Bedford have been using the words "will become dominant" regarding the UK variant, for the last two months and urging decision makers to prepare. The uncertainty being projected is way more about outcome. A variant of concern doesn't necessarily mean "bad outcome." That's what they want to emphasize, so people don't freak out. But if people interpret that the existing variant is going to somehow retain dominance, that's a messaging problem.

The vaccines all work well against the UK variant. The plan doesn’t change.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Everyone has read this week's NY Times article about Brazil’s P1 variant, yes? Brazil is being quite the case study on why relying on natural immunity is not a good enough solution. The calculations toward herd immunity will have to be based on vaccination rates. The percentage of people with natural immunity might buy some time to get shots in arms against existing variants, but we shouldn’t get too comfortable thinking we can just add a percentage of them to the vaccine group and call it good for future protection.

Virus Variant in Brazil Infected Many Who Had Already Recovered From Covid-19 (Published 2021)

The first detailed studies of the so-called P.1 variant show how it devastated a Brazilian city. Now scientists want to know what it will do elsewhere.

www.nytimes.com

Evidence via patient records that 25-61% of Manaus’ second wave were re-infections, that antibodies from people originally infected are less reactive to the P1 strain, evidence that the China vaccine Brazil is using (CoronaVac) is less effective against P1 than other types in lab tests.

"Dr. Faria said “an increasing body of evidence” suggests that most cases in the second wave were the result of reinfections."

This is not a panic message, but a stay vigilant because this is not just going to disappear overnight, and what happens in the rest of world still has an impact on what happens here. Get vaccinated, but in the mean time we still need other precautions. We're probably not that far off from the UK variant vs Brazilian variant biological WWE death match for dominance, but hopefully we can get the vaccines done so it's playing out in surveillance of a few thousand cases and not tens of thousands of cases.

Exactly this. In a global pandemic it means exactly that. Let’s get us vaccinated, for all who want it but the world needs to be vaccinated also unless we want to close our borders for extended period of time. There are countries who haven’t even started vaccinating yet. Over a 120 I believe.
What happens in the rest of the world does has a impact on us , so true. Stay vigilant and we can do it.

This is exactly why its best to move slowwwww. I think masks and social distancing will still be a big part of our lives until late 2021 for this reason. Its great we have vaccines, and its great they are proving effective. But we are in a once in a hundred year pandemic. We need to proceed with caution. Anything can happen and that something could really derail us if we aren't careful.

 

[DCBaker]

 

[Disney Analyst]

As I've said in the politics board:


What Texas and other states are doing when easing restrictions prematurely, it endangers the efforts of the rest of the country, North America, and the world. It's purely selfish political pandering.

The more transmission you allow, the more likely you get an even nastier variant that either results in higher morbidity, or is completely resistant to our vaccines. It's foolish, selfish, dangerous, and bad global stewardship.

 

[GabeP]

Indiana just opened to 50+, with plans to go to 45+ next week and 40+ the week after, so we're racing through.

 

[Patcheslee]

Indiana just opened to 50+, with plans to go to 45+ next week and 40+ the week after, so we're racing through.

Spent the last 45 minutes of work helping 6 coworkers get scheduled through Kroger site. They had appointments as soon as Friday vs in 16 days through the government ran site.
And my 52yo cousin with Down Syndrome is finally signed up for in 8 days. I miss getting to see him.
The % of enrolled or completed in the upper age groups looked extremely well.

 

[JAKECOTCenter]

Just hearing everyone get their vaccines and the stories of reunion warms my heart. Come May, it's gonna be like waking up from an 18-month nightmare.

 

[hopemax]

The vaccines all work well against the UK variant. The plan doesn’t change.

So you think the current level of vaccination levels will be enough to stop the UK variant from becoming dominant? As in when they sequence the positive samples, and add the various types up the UK variant won’t be the highest in quantity?

 

[JAKECOTCenter]

So you think the current level of vaccination levels will be enough to stop the UK variant from becoming dominant? As in when they sequence the positive samples, and add the various types up the UK variant won’t be the highest in quantity?

The UK variant will most likely be the dominant strain. However, it could be a situation where cases are quite low due to the rate of vaccinations being acceptable to combat the strain. So yes the UK variant could be the dominant strain, but by that time Covid could be on its way out.

 

[Crunchie9]

Man some people are just convinced the world is ending.

It is not.

Did Texas jump the gun? Maybe. Will it end the world? No. Will it set them back a few weeks? Possibly. Will it set you back a few months? Probably not.

 

[JAKECOTCenter]

Man some people are just convinced the world is ending.

It is not.

Did Texas jump the gun? Maybe. Will it end the world? No. Will it set them back a few weeks? Possibly. Will it set you back a few months? Probably not.

Will it set us back a few months? Absolutely yes. Look at Brazil. It's becoming the next epicenter.

 

[Crunchie9]

Will it set us back a few months? Absolutely yes. Look at Brazil. It's becoming the next epicenter.

You cannot say that with conviction when its a qualitative viewpoint.

 

[GoofGoof]

So you think the current level of vaccination levels will be enough to stop the UK variant from becoming dominant? As in when they sequence the positive samples, and add the various types up the UK variant won’t be the highest in quantity?

As I said, the plan doesn’t change. We continue to vaccinate people and when enough people are vaccinated then we start easing restrictions. What strain is dominant has no bearing on that especially when the vaccines work against it.

 

[Patcheslee]

Man some people are just convinced the world is ending.

It is not.

Did Texas jump the gun? Maybe. Will it end the world? No. Will it set them back a few weeks? Possibly. Will it set you back a few months? Probably not.

Ironically yesterday was Texas Independence Day.

 

[havoc315]

You misunderstood my post. This has nothing to do with science or what we should do to prevent spread of the virus. I’m just calling it as I see it these days. If Biden’s projection is true and if every adult has been vaccinated by end of May most people are not going to sit out July 4th again this year and not see family and not go to church and not go on vacations this Summer. It’s just not going to happen even if people say it should. Bars won’t stay closed, restaurants won’t continue take out only or limited indoor seating. Do you really think the masses are going to agree to continue stay at home conditions if they are vaccinated but cases don’t drop to near zero? It won’t happen.

I agree with you and I am hopeful it won’t matter because the basics of infectious disease tell me that if we take 75% of possible hosts out of circulation it’s unlikely that cases don’t drop and with that hospitalizations and deaths.

I don't disagree with that, but.... it really depends on the flexibility of recommendations.

If we are sitting at 1,000 cases per day and the CDC is still making extremely stringent recommendations about no indoor dining, no gatherings, etc.... It will get to a point where it's ignored.

But for example (still premature in my opinion), NYC is re-opening theater at 33% capacity/ 100 guest maximum, in April.

I don't think there will be mass rebellion against mitigation measures, *IF* those measures are gradually becoming less restrictive.
Yes, go ahead and travel this summer: but wear a mask on planes, in transit, and in tourist destinations.
Yes, restaurants are open, but buffets remain closed, distance between tables remains increased.
Yes, theaters are open, but with empty seats between parties, and with masks.
Yes, churches are open, but masked.

Etc.

 

[mmascari]

You misunderstood my post. This has nothing to do with science or what we should do to prevent spread of the virus. I’m just calling it as I see it these days. If Biden’s projection is true and if every adult has been vaccinated by end of May most people are not going to sit out July 4th again this year and not see family and not go to church and not go on vacations this Summer. It’s just not going to happen even if people say it should. Bars won’t stay closed, restaurants won’t continue take out only or limited indoor seating. Do you really think the masses are going to agree to continue stay at home conditions if they are vaccinated but cases don’t drop to near zero? It won’t happen.

I agree with you and I am hopeful it won’t matter because the basics of infectious disease tell me that if we take 75% of possible hosts out of circulation it’s unlikely that cases don’t drop and with that hospitalizations and deaths.

If everyone who wants a vaccine has one by the end of May, and it's not enough of the population to reduce community spread and cases, so we're still at 500 or more people dying every day. Then, yes, I don't expect people to go back to normal. Some will, but not everyone, and I don't think the majority will.

We could drop everything and open it all back up, since anyone who wants a vaccine could get one, but all it would do is drive that number up. If there's still 500 or more people dying every day because of large spread, I expect those open things might have a little bump, but it's not going to be the masses trying to go out. They'll still have some self preservation.

There will be some that treat the vaccine as a super power. That use it's protection against death as a reason to not care about being exposed. These people are a danger to everyone, including themselves. They'll drive up the virus/vaccine interactions and increase the likelihood of a variant the vaccine doesn't protect against. These are the same people that demand antibiotics at the first sniffle and have lead to resistant bacteria. They're the reason hospitals put strict controls on some antibiotics.

Conversely, if we have enough vaccinated people that causes cases to go low enough. Nothing will be able to contain people, and there wouldn't be any reason to either. I don't want to restrict anyone if there's no reason to.

That's the point. We can produce and distribute vaccine as much as we want. If enough people don't actually take it to cause spread to go down, it's not going to do us any good. Opening up needs cases down, spread controlled. It doesn't care about any one person getting vaccinated.

We can debate the number here. Maybe I'm wrong, and more people are totally fine with 500 a day/180,000 a year. My number for back to normal is under 150 daily, and I already feel like a monster that it's not lower. Google tells me we're still around 2,000 daily, so there's a way to go just to get to 500 still.

So, same sales pitch as before: Help the community, get vaccinated, bonus, you get to not die. But, it's not a superpower that you should throw caution to the wind about exposures.

 

[GoofGoof]

If everyone who wants a vaccine has one by the end of May, and it's not enough of the population to reduce community spread and cases, so we're still at 500 or more people dying every day. Then, yes, I don't expect people to go back to normal. Some will, but not everyone, and I don't think the majority will.

We could drop everything and open it all back up, since anyone who wants a vaccine could get one, but all it would do is drive that number up. If there's still 500 or more people dying every day because of large spread, I expect those open things might have a little bump, but it's not going to be the masses trying to go out. They'll still have some self preservation.

There will be some that treat the vaccine as a super power. That use it's protection against death as a reason to not care about being exposed. These people are a danger to everyone, including themselves. They'll drive up the virus/vaccine interactions and increase the likelihood of a variant the vaccine doesn't protect against. These are the same people that demand antibiotics at the first sniffle and have lead to resistant bacteria. They're the reason hospitals put strict controls on some antibiotics.

Conversely, if we have enough vaccinated people that causes cases to go low enough. Nothing will be able to contain people, and there wouldn't be any reason to either. I don't want to restrict anyone if there's no reason to.

That's the point. We can produce and distribute vaccine as much as we want. If enough people don't actually take it to cause spread to go down, it's not going to do us any good. Opening up needs cases down, spread controlled. It doesn't care about any one person getting vaccinated.

We can debate the number here. Maybe I'm wrong, and more people are totally fine with 500 a day/180,000 a year. My number for back to normal is under 150 daily, and I already feel like a monster that it's not lower. Google tells me we're still around 2,000 daily, so there's a way to go just to get to 500 still.

So, same sales pitch as before: Help the community, get vaccinated, bonus, you get to not die. But, it's not a superpower that you should throw caution to the wind about exposures.

I think we have to wait and see. I can’t see a scenario where enough people don’t get vaccinated to drive cases, hospitalizations and deaths way down. The rest is just an academic debate. We can cross that brindle when we come to it, but I still don’t think the general public goes along with a lot of restrictions.

 

[TheGuyThatMakesSwords]

DW & I are cheering . BOTH have dose #1 of Moderna . #2 reserved .
Ahead of time? At 68, we appear to still be alive .