Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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GoofGoof

Premium Member
It is a sliding scale fee, the more you are inconvenienced the less you pay. Change the linens during your stay? $$
Want more towels or TP? $$$ He knows those are not so optional. The in house research proves it!
I can live with the same linens and towels...but I’d buck up for the TP...I’m on vacation, live a little ;)
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
I haven’t been able to find any details on that. Because Merck uses those facilities for FDA approved stuff already and because they are mostly doing the finishing of the vaccine not all the steps of manufacturing I assume they can come on line quickly. If you remember back in Feb a JnJ board member said they were working round the clock to ramp up manufacturing and he said they could finish their deliveries of the first 100M doses as early as end of April. I wonder now if this deal wasn’t already in the works back then. It makes a lot of sense.

I am going to put my tinfoil hat on for a second and say this. Fauci comes out and says he’s moving back when he thinks the vaccine will be available to the general public from April to end of May or June and when pressed on why the change he states that it was due to JnJ not projecting as many deliveries as they thought. Flash forward 2 weeks and Biden brokers a deal between JnJ and Merck that allows JnJ to increase production and they now say we will have enough doses for all adults by May. So JnJ shortage caused target to slip and now JnJ shortage is fixed so target moved back up. Did the projection ever really change or was that just some good political gamesmanship?

Either way if we get 100M doses from Pfizer and Moderna and 50M+ from JnJ in May that just means moving up when we are done which is great news. I do think we have the capacity to do 5M shots a day as long as the supply keeps up and JnJ is so much easier to plan since there’s no second shots to coordinate.

I'll avoid the tinfoil hat. Lots of reasons projections could be fluid:
Slowing things down at some point -- AZ was initially expected to be a huge portion of our vaccine rollout, that's now unlikely.
Moderna and Pfizer were a bit slow out of the gate. JNJ was announcing some production delays.

Speeding things up:
Moderna and Pfizer have both started to catch up and to speed up projections on future. JNJ Merck partnership. Ordering of more doses.

My best guess: Trump admin was often way too optimistic in projections. (This was going to be over last April!). So in Biden's early days, they took extreme caution with projections. They could speak with high confidence about June/July as an outside date, they weren't quite so confident in May. As conditions improved, their confidence level in May improved, so they made the recent announcement..

That said, I'm amused by some Biden admin "victory laps." I've seen some proclaim great victory in speeding it up from June/July to May... When they were the ones who had slowed the projection, then sped it up. And even if it's 1000000% legitimate, it's nothing more than a change in projections. Save any victory laps until the actual results are in.
 

Miss Bella

Well-Known Member
Actually, Biden's hour long phone call on Sunday with J&J got the J&J/Merck partnership going. I'd say that's pretty significant direct presidential impact on vaccines. Biden: Successfully Making Deals to Make America Safe Again.
Thats great, but didn't the previous administration get the whole ball rolling to Make America Safe Again.
 
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havoc315

Well-Known Member
Thats great, but didn't the previous administration get the whole ball rolling to Make America Safe Again.
Not really. The first vaccine was Pfizer... funded by Germany, and self-funded by Pfizer.

The Trump administration got the ball rolling on Astrazeneca.. that was their big investment. That and Sanofi and Moderna. Fortunately, Moderna worked out.
That's not to say the Trump administration didn't contribute anything to the vaccine efforts -- they most certainly did. Though hard to find any direct intervention by Trump personally that had any positive effect.
 
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GoofGoof

Premium Member
Interesting story on vaccine rollout. In summary they are projecting a huge surplus of vaccines by the Summer. One quote I found interesting is this:
That’s the lowest I’ve seen recently for a percent for herd immunity. To get to that level we would need about 200M people to take the vaccine or 70% of people 12 and up. I think that’s pretty doable and we could have 200M people at least started on the vaccine by the end of April.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/u-...end-with-oversupply-51614779561?siteid=yhoof2
 

JAKECOTCenter

Well-Known Member
Interesting story on vaccine rollout. In summary they are projecting a huge surplus of vaccines by the Summer. One quote I found interesting is this:

That’s the lowest I’ve seen recently for a percent for herd immunity. To get to that level we would need about 200M people to take the vaccine or 70% of people 12 and up. I think that’s pretty doable and we could have 200M people at least started on the vaccine by the end of April.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/u-...end-with-oversupply-51614779561?siteid=yhoof2
I think this makes the prospects of a maskless summer more favorable. Again factors like weather and delays will happen, this rollout won't be perfect, but as long as we don't get another Texas situation, summer 2021 is going to be WILD.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
I think this makes the prospects of a maskless summer more favorable. Again factors like weather and delays will happen, this rollout won't be perfect, but as long as we don't get another Texas situation, summer 2021 is going to be WILD.
Who knows on herd immunity percentages. I just feel like every time someone talks about it the percent goes up 5 or 10% more. This guy is an epidemiologist who works for the CDC and his quote was not what he thinks but what his agency believes. That’s better than just one guy as an outlier. Who knows what the number really needs to be.
 

JAKECOTCenter

Well-Known Member
Who knows on herd immunity percentages. I just feel like every time someone talks about it the percent goes up 5 or 10% more. This guy is an epidemiologist who works for the CDC and his quote was not what he thinks but what his agency believes. That’s better than just one guy as an outlier. Who knows what the number really needs to be.
The consensus seems to be 60-90 percent of the population. Not every single US citizen but also not a majority. Seems to be an outright majority of the population is the threshold. Whether that's 60 or 75 or 90 percent is all over the place. But more than half of the population is a acceptable bet
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
The consensus seems to be 60-90 percent of the population. Not every single US citizen but also not a majority. Seems to be an outright majority of the population is the threshold. Whether that's 60 or 75 or 90 percent is all over the place. But more than half of the population is a acceptable bet
It’s going to be next to impossible to get to more than 70% of the population immune as long as kids under 12 aren’t eligible. 70% means 230M vaccinated. There are 280M Americans 12+. That means 82% of those eligible would need to take the vaccine. I don’t see us getting much higher than that and even that would be a small miracle. If we can go as low as 60% of the total population then you need 200M instead 230M vaccinated and that’s only about 71% of those eligible which happens to be the number in the most recent poll who say they will get the vaccine. This assumes that those who are naturally immune from infection but haven’t been vaccinated are offset by those who took the vaccine but it didn’t work. I call it a wash to make the math easier but we have no idea how many people who don’t get the vaccine will be naturally immune from infection. I am also assuming kids 12-17 get approved in the next few months.
 

carolina_yankee

Well-Known Member
No president between Adams and Wilson delivered a State of the Union address. The Constitution requires no such thing. What is required is The President “shall from time to time give to the Congress Information of the State of the Union, and recommend to their Consideration such measures as he shall judge necessary and expedient.” Article II, Section 3, Clause 1.

He can text a few emojis and fulfill the requirement.

Also, Congress has to invite the President. He doesn’t get to just walk in and deliver.
 

mmascari

Well-Known Member
There is an average of 7708 deaths in the USA every day.
328,000,000 people in the USA
0.00235%
And the point here? It’s all good until its 1% or .1%, maybe .01% each day? Anything less than 30,000 a day, we should be wide open no mitigation? Is that your number?

Today’s 2,000 a day is 26% above the 7,708 average.
500 would be 6% above.
150 would be 2% above.

My guess, mitigations start to disappear nationally when we’re below 500. With everthing gone below 150.

If we’re using deaths instead of a case measurement, using a 7 day average and not including the most recent 2 weeks because of reporting lag. It’ll be 3 weeks after we hit the metric that we actually know it. Someone could do the math for the case rate that matches this, get a head start with less reporting lag.

Could be 3 weeks from now, 3 months, or more. Whenever we get there. Enough vaccine usage, and we will get there eventually.

It’s not enough vaccine usage that’s the worry, unless people just get numb to the daily increase as the new normal.
 

DCBaker

Premium Member
"The CVS Pharmacy chain is vaccinating Florida teachers under age 50, circumventing state orders that continue to limit coronavirus inoculations to those over that age.

The chain also began vaccinating day care and preschool teachers Wednesday, even though Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has not yet opened the vaccination program to them. CVS is giving inoculations in two dozen cities across the state.

CVS said it is following Biden administration guidelines released this week, which are broader for educators than Florida’s. For teachers, Florida limits the vaccine to classroom teachers 50 and older who work in kindergarten through 12th grade. The federal guidelines allow day care workers, preschool teachers and educators in elementary, middle and high schools to be vaccinated with no age limit.

“We’ve aligned with updated Federal Retail Pharmacy Program guidelines by making appointments available to pre-K through 12 educators and staff and childcare workers in all 17 states where we currently offer COVID-19 vaccines,” the Rhode Island-based company said in a statement."

 

oceanbreeze77

Well-Known Member
"The CVS Pharmacy chain is vaccinating Florida teachers under age 50, circumventing state orders that continue to limit coronavirus inoculations to those over that age.

The chain also began vaccinating day care and preschool teachers Wednesday, even though Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has not yet opened the vaccination program to them. CVS is giving inoculations in two dozen cities across the state.

CVS said it is following Biden administration guidelines released this week, which are broader for educators than Florida’s. For teachers, Florida limits the vaccine to classroom teachers 50 and older who work in kindergarten through 12th grade. The federal guidelines allow day care workers, preschool teachers and educators in elementary, middle and high schools to be vaccinated with no age limit.

“We’ve aligned with updated Federal Retail Pharmacy Program guidelines by making appointments available to pre-K through 12 educators and staff and childcare workers in all 17 states where we currently offer COVID-19 vaccines,” the Rhode Island-based company said in a statement."

good
 

mmascari

Well-Known Member
It’s going to be next to impossible to get to more than 70% of the population immune as long as kids under 12 aren’t eligible. 70% means 230M vaccinated. There are 280M Americans 12+. That means 82% of those eligible would need to take the vaccine. I don’t see us getting much higher than that and even that would be a small miracle. If we can go as low as 60% of the total population then you need 200M instead 230M vaccinated and that’s only about 71% of those eligible which happens to be the number in the most recent poll who say they will get the vaccine. This assumes that those who are naturally immune from infection but haven’t been vaccinated are offset by those who took the vaccine but it didn’t work. I call it a wash to make the math easier but we have no idea how many people who don’t get the vaccine will be naturally immune from infection. I am also assuming kids 12-17 get approved in the next few months.
Can we give people discounts on big screen TVs, maybe game consoles? People go nuts at Black Friday sales. We need that energy.

Help the community, you don’t die, and here's $150 off a TV!
 
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