Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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Crunchie9

Well-Known Member
mmascari said:
If everyone who wants a vaccine has one by the end of May, and it's not enough of the population to reduce community spread and cases, so we're still at 500 or more people dying every day. Then, yes, I don't expect people to go back to normal. Some will, but not everyone, and I don't think the majority will.

We could drop everything and open it all back up, since anyone who wants a vaccine could get one, but all it would do is drive that number up. If there's still 500 or more people dying every day because of large spread, I expect those open things might have a little bump, but it's not going to be the masses trying to go out. They'll still have some self preservation.

There will be some that treat the vaccine as a super power. That use it's protection against death as a reason to not care about being exposed. These people are a danger to everyone, including themselves. They'll drive up the virus/vaccine interactions and increase the likelihood of a variant the vaccine doesn't protect against. These are the same people that demand antibiotics at the first sniffle and have lead to resistant bacteria. They're the reason hospitals put strict controls on some antibiotics.

Conversely, if we have enough vaccinated people that causes cases to go low enough. Nothing will be able to contain people, and there wouldn't be any reason to either. I don't want to restrict anyone if there's no reason to.

That's the point. We can produce and distribute vaccine as much as we want. If enough people don't actually take it to cause spread to go down, it's not going to do us any good. Opening up needs cases down, spread controlled. It doesn't care about any one person getting vaccinated.

We can debate the number here. Maybe I'm wrong, and more people are totally fine with 500 a day/180,000 a year. My number for back to normal is under 150 daily, and I already feel like a monster that it's not lower. Google tells me we're still around 2,000 daily, so there's a way to go just to get to 500 still.

So, same sales pitch as before: Help the community, get vaccinated, bonus, you get to not die. But, it's not a superpower that you should throw caution to the wind about exposures.
Click to expand...
There is an average of 7708 deaths in the USA every day.
328,000,000 people in the USA
0.00235%
 
GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
7 day daily average for vaccines administered has topped 2M a day for the first time :) This also does not include JnJ shots yet as they are likely to start today into next week depending on how quickly they scheduled them.

www.bloomberg.com

More Than 12.7 Billion Shots Given: Covid-19 Tracker

Bloomberg counted up the shots administered in 184 countries and 59 US states and territories
www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com
 
C

Crunchie9

Well-Known Member
GoofGoof said:
7 day daily average for vaccines administered has topped 2M a day for the first time :) This also does not include JnJ shots yet as they are likely to start today into next week depending on how quickly they scheduled them.

www.bloomberg.com

More Than 12.7 Billion Shots Given: Covid-19 Tracker

Bloomberg counted up the shots administered in 184 countries and 59 US states and territories
www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com
Click to expand...
So 328*70% population *65% for adults / (2M (day) *5 days a week * 4 weeks)

=3.73 months

=3.73/12

=.3109*365

=113.48 days

Friday June 25th, 2021 at the current pace.
 
GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Crunchie9 said:
So 328*70% population *65% for adults / (2M (day) *5 days a week * 4 weeks)

=3.73 months

=3.73/12

=.3109*365

=113.48 days

Friday June 25th, 2021 at the current pace.
Click to expand...
Bloomberg says 6 months to cover 75% of the population at this pace. I still think we top 3M doses a day by some time in March and possibly max out closer to 4M a day once all 3 manufacturers hit maximum and stable deliveries (likely in April).
 
D

Disney Experience

Well-Known Member
Looks like they are seeking approval by FDA in May

A Novavax CEO interview:

www.npr.org

Novavax Vaccine Appears 86% Effective Against U.K's COVID-19 Variant

Vaccine maker Novavax is waiting for its COVID-19 vaccine to be approved in the U.K., and is hopeful that U.S. approval will follow. NPR's Steve Inskeep speaks to Novavax CEO Stanley Erck.
www.npr.org www.npr.org

And an interesting article on the company's history (May be behind a paywall, though you can sometimes get the full article for free):

Subscribe to read

www.ft.com www.ft.com
 
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DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
DCBaker said:
WFTV reporting 9k appointments still available through the Orange County portal -

Click to expand...

Part of this could be the different ways to make an appointment are confusing people. There's the State portal, Publix, CVS, Walmart now the no appointment sites. They need to get the messaging out about all the places to book. I can't imagine that all 65+ in Orange County who want vaccination have gotten an appointment already.
 
D

Disney Experience

Well-Known Member
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havoc315

Well-Known Member
GoofGoof said:
Bloomberg says 6 months to cover 75% of the population at this pace. I still think we top 3M doses a day by some time in March and possibly max out closer to 4M a day once all 3 manufacturers hit maximum and stable deliveries (likely in April).
Click to expand...

Now I’ll be more optimistic than you.
By mid April, we may be approaching 5 million per day, at least have the capability.

Though I worry about the real level of vaccine hesitancy and vaccine procrastination, preventing us from maximizing speed.

Purely anecdotal:
I’m getting close to the point where most of the people I know over 40 have their vaccines, or at least appointments in the next week. (NY eligibility is so huge, that the majority of adults can find 1 or more ways to qualify).
If everyone I know is now easily getting appointments.. but under 15% of the population is vaccinated.. Begs the question of how many people outside “my circle” aren’t getting vaccinated??
 
GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
havoc315 said:
Now I’ll be more optimistic than you.
By mid April, we may be approaching 5 million per day, at least have the capability.

Though I worry about the real level of vaccine hesitancy and vaccine procrastination, preventing us from maximizing speed.

Purely anecdotal:
I’m getting close to the point where most of the people I know over 40 have their vaccines, or at least appointments in the next week. (NY eligibility is so huge, that the majority of adults can find 1 or more ways to qualify).
If everyone I know is now easily getting appointments.. but under 15% of the population is vaccinated.. Begs the question of how many people outside “my circle” aren’t getting vaccinated??
Click to expand...
I agree that we could ramp up to 5M on some days or more. It all depends on when the doses arrive. I was limiting it to 4M a day because that’s roughly 120M doses a month which is around the max number we will have to use in a month. 100M from Pfizer and Moderna starting in April and 30M from JnJ. I don’t think vaccine administration will be a lag it will either be not enough doses like now or not enough people.

I think once we hit April states will need to retool the vaccine approach. They will need to do more targeted vaccination clinic like churches and community centers as well as certain large employers. The goal will shift from vaccinating as many people as fast as we can to ensuring the demand doesn‘t dry up. I do think we could hit a slow down end of April into May. If the rollout goes as planned because those types of clinics are similar to the nursing homes and take more time to do than mass vaccination sites and pharmacy appointments.
 
D

Disney Experience

Well-Known Member
havoc315 said:
Now I’ll be more optimistic than you.
By mid April, we may be approaching 5 million per day, at least have the capability.

Though I worry about the real level of vaccine hesitancy and vaccine procrastination, preventing us from maximizing speed.

Purely anecdotal:
I’m getting close to the point where most of the people I know over 40 have their vaccines, or at least appointments in the next week. (NY eligibility is so huge, that the majority of adults can find 1 or more ways to qualify).
If everyone I know is now easily getting appointments.. but under 15% of the population is vaccinated.. Begs the question of how many people outside “my circle” aren’t getting vaccinated??
Click to expand...
The vaccine hesitancy is a shame, and I too hope it does not prevent us from getting to more of a measles outcome vs a flu outcome (i.e. number of cases annually).

The funny thing is if a mutation got extremely contagious (Super high R0) but did not evade the vaccines, that would help get herd immunity once most people are vaccinated. Those who chose not to vaccinate would have a higher chance of obtaining natural immunity. The problem with even hoping that such a mutation would occur is that there are people who cannot vaccinate (vs will not). But they may be able to do other mitigations personally until the faster spreading virus has helped us achieve overall herd immunity and the virus effectively burns out.
 
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correcaminos

correcaminos

Well-Known Member
MaximumEd said:
Imma take a stab at this. While GoofGoof seems to be a well-written, reasonable individual, he doesn’t own a functional crystal ball. No. One. Knows.
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I'm really not convinced they are not a troll or a bot of some sort. Not trying to be mean about it but the word choices and constant tagging one single person over and over again makes me wonder.
havoc315 said:
Now I’ll be more optimistic than you.
By mid April, we may be approaching 5 million per day, at least have the capability.

Though I worry about the real level of vaccine hesitancy and vaccine procrastination, preventing us from maximizing speed.

Purely anecdotal:
I’m getting close to the point where most of the people I know over 40 have their vaccines, or at least appointments in the next week. (NY eligibility is so huge, that the majority of adults can find 1 or more ways to qualify).
If everyone I know is now easily getting appointments.. but under 15% of the population is vaccinated.. Begs the question of how many people outside “my circle” aren’t getting vaccinated??
Click to expand...
I know my anecdotal evidence, a lot of my friends who are not medical/frontline workers/teachers are not vaccinated. Most of my friends under 65 are not even close to it either. We've had a few sneak theirs in and I've offered help to others but unfortunately, we're not there yet. Appointments are hit or miss. Been helping a lot of 65+ get theirs. What does that mean for the US as a whole? Who knows. I don't think all states are offering it to all the right people yet.

Anecdotally my dad was telling me of a friend he is trying to suggest to get it who doesn't trust the vaccine. Using me in a trial kind of helped but we're still not sure. I worry that really smart people are still worried. I watched a townhall from my state for rural people in my state and it was kind of enlightening.
 
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