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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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- coronavirus covid covid-19
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GimpYancIent
Well-Known Member
Wow! The walk, chew gum and clap hands thing.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
The priority groups represent about 60-75% of the adult population depending on which medical conditions you include and which jobs are labeled essential. In the beginning when the estimates included asthma and high blood pressure which were left off the CDC priority list it was over 80% of the adult population.
I think we will see north of 3M doses a day by the end of March. The pharmacies all have extra capacity they are just waiting for the doses. They get paid per jab so capitalism at its finest.
On herd immunity, who knows. This Summer and into the fall the talking point was consistently 40-60% needed because we didn’t know if we would get a vaccine that would be much better than 60% effective. Here‘s an interesting read from the Summer:
The Tricky Math of Herd Immunity for COVID-19
Herd immunity differs from place to place, and many factors influence how it’s calculated.
www.quantamagazine.org
Then this Fall we upped the target when the vaccine efficacy was so high. Even Fauci said he moved the goal posts due to vaccine acceptance and high efficacy which I have no problem with. The goal should be to vaccinate as many people as possible.
Fauci claims herd immunity numbers were 'guestimates,' settles on 75-80%
Dr. Anthony Fauci on Sunday dismissed accusations that he deliberately moved the goalposts on when the country would vaccinate enough people against COVID-19 to reach herd immunity, saying he was previously offering "guestimates."
www.foxnews.com
Since we have no real idea how many people have gotten Covid it’s hard to know how contagious it is. The more contagious it is the higher threshold we need to hit, but also the more people who were infected and didn‘t know it. We also have some people who are naturally immune through infection so some portion of the unvaccinated population who are still immune.
Based on polling it will be next to impossible to reach more than 70% of the general population vaccinated until kids under 12 are authorized. If every single American 12+ got vaccinated we’d only be at 85% of the population. To get to 80% of the total population we’d need to have 95% of the population 12+ vaccinated. Right now they are just starting trials on kids under 12 so who knows when they will be finished. The one big hope here is there is some evidence that kids are less efficient spreaders of the virus so maybe not having kids under 12 done isn’t as big a deal if they are less likely to spread the virus.
Patcheslee
Well-Known Member
Can the vaccines get emergency authorization for the under 18 age groups? Or will that have to be full authorization?The priority groups represent about 60-75% of the adult population depending on which medical conditions you include and which jobs are labeled essential. In the beginning when the estimates included asthma and high blood pressure which were left off the CDC priority list it was over 80% of the adult population.
I think we will see north of 3M doses a day by the end of March. The pharmacies all have extra capacity they are just waiting for the doses. They get paid per jab so capitalism at its finest.
On herd immunity, who knows. This Summer and into the fall the talking point was consistently 40-60% needed because we didn’t know if we would get a vaccine that would be much better than 60% effective. Here‘s an interesting read from the Summer:
The Tricky Math of Herd Immunity for COVID-19
Herd immunity differs from place to place, and many factors influence how it’s calculated.
Then this Fall we upped the target when the vaccine efficacy was so high. Even Fauci said he moved the goal posts due to vaccine acceptance and high efficacy which I have no problem with. The goal should be to vaccinate as many people as possible.
Fauci claims herd immunity numbers were 'guestimates,' settles on 75-80%
Dr. Anthony Fauci on Sunday dismissed accusations that he deliberately moved the goalposts on when the country would vaccinate enough people against COVID-19 to reach herd immunity, saying he was previously offering "guestimates."
Since we have no real idea how many people have gotten Covid it’s hard to know how contagious it is. The more contagious it is the higher threshold we need to hit, but also the more people who were infected and didn‘t know it. We also have some people who are naturally immune through infection so some portion of the unvaccinated population who are still immune.
Based on polling it will be next to impossible to reach more than 70% of the general population vaccinated until kids under 12 are authorized. If every single American 12+ got vaccinated we’d only be at 85% of the population. To get to 80% of the total population we’d need to have 95% of the population 12+ vaccinated. Right now they are just starting trials on kids under 12 so who knows when they will be finished. The one big hope here is there is some evidence that kids are less efficient spreaders of the virus so maybe not having kids under 12 done isn’t as big a deal if they are less likely to spread the virus.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
I think it will still be EUA. Right now Pfizer goes down to 16 under the EUA and they will look to amend that to 12 and up once the current kids trial ends assuming it’s successful.
Heppenheimer
Well-Known Member
They are already under EAU for as young as 16. But yes, they can, but the studies need to be submitted. These are on-going right now.
Patcheslee
Well-Known Member
Mine 12 and she's begging to get one lol. She doesn't qualify for trials so just waiting it out. Considering she's always been horrible with vaccinations, it's a good sign.
DisneyDebRob
Well-Known Member
I was reporting exactly what the CDC just said in a statement. You can choose to believe them or however you figure things out. I’ll stick with them over a poster in this thread.you do realize that death counts are including deaths that occurred in January and February.
Virginia March 1 COVID-19 update: Cases and hospitalizations continue to go down, but death reporting has never been higher
Virginia’s case levels and COVID-19 hospitalizations continue to trend down, but high numbers of COVID-19 deaths are still being added to the state’s database, with 231 reported on Mond…www.wavy.com
"The addition of this backlogged death data related to the post-holiday surge in cases has Virginia’s average of reported COVID-19 deaths up to an unprecedentedly high 185 deaths per day. Remember these deaths are spread out, with most having happened in mid-January/early February, VDH’s data shows. The death certificate data takes time to be inputted into the system."
JAKECOTCenter
Well-Known Member
GoofGoof
Premium Member
I’m hoping the trial wraps up in March or April and they can start kids 12-17 soon after. My youngest is only 11 so he won’t be eligible
danlb_2000
Premium Member
I assume this means we will have enough vaccine for every adult by the end of May, not that every adult will be vaccinated by then.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Love it. Kudos to him and the administration for putting that out there. That’s a bold target we can be proud to accomplish.
A broken clock is right twice a day
GoofGoof
Premium Member
I’m pretty sure it just means we will have enough vaccines for 250M people. 200M from Pfizer/Moderna and 50M from JnJ. There may be some people who need to get their 2nd shots in June. Also, if kids 12-17 get approved before the end of May that adds 30M more eligible people to the mix bringing it to 280M. But that also assumes 100% vaccine acceptance which we all know won’t happen but he can’t say that because the official goal is 100% acceptance.
Figgy1
Well-Known Member
Vaccines made is my guess
I dare say we will hit 3 million per day within the next couple of weeks. We were already rising above 2 million per day, without JNJ
On herd immunity, who knows. This Summer and into the fall the talking point was consistently 40-60% needed because we didn’t know if we would get a vaccine that would be much better than 60% effective. Here‘s an interesting read from the Summer:
The Tricky Math of Herd Immunity for COVID-19
Herd immunity differs from place to place, and many factors influence how it’s calculated.
Agreed that it's a huge unknown. But Israel is already basically at 40%, and they don't look too close to it. In fact, today their case numbers were up again, highest in 2 weeks.
The data definitely shows vaccines are working in Israel, but herd immunity at 40-50% doesn't look to be the case.
Then this Fall we upped the target when the vaccine efficacy was so high. Even Fauci said he moved the goal posts due to vaccine acceptance and high efficacy which I have no problem with. The goal should be to vaccinate as many people as possible.
Fauci claims herd immunity numbers were 'guestimates,' settles on 75-80%
Dr. Anthony Fauci on Sunday dismissed accusations that he deliberately moved the goalposts on when the country would vaccinate enough people against COVID-19 to reach herd immunity, saying he was previously offering "guestimates."
Since we have no real idea how many people have gotten Covid it’s hard to know how contagious it is. The more contagious it is the higher threshold we need to hit, but also the more people who were infected and didn‘t know it. We also have some people who are naturally immune through infection so some portion of the unvaccinated population who are still immune.
There are a LOT of unknowns. This is also where the variants come in. If the variants are more infectious and/or vaccines are less effective towards them, then it raises the herd immunity threshold.
Natural infections reduce the herd immunity threshold. Israel also has a lower level of natural infection than the US, so they may have a higher herd immunity threshold than the US.
The effectiveness against disease TRANSMISSION is a big unknown as to herd immunity threshold. (Technically, you would need close to 100% vaccination if there vaccines had no effectiveness against transmission. We know they are effective against transmission, but don't know how effective).
Basically, herd immunity threshold is a big unknown that is dependent on many variables. I'll keep my fingers crossed for 70%.
And that brings us to another question mark. To what extent do we need kids to be part of the herd immunity threshold. We know that children are less likely to contract symptomatic infection. I believe the studies also show that children are less likely to transmit.
Thus, (now just my own thinking), is it possible kids already have an equivalence to a partially effective vaccine? In other words, in an adult, a vaccine reduces disease and transmission. But are kids already operating with reduced disease and transmission, somewhat similar to an adult with a partially effective vaccine?
If true, we may be able to each herd immunity with a high enough percentage of adults vaccinated, even if we don't aggressively vaccinate children. This is perhaps our best chance of reaching herd immunity at 70% of the total population.
JAKECOTCenter
Well-Known Member
The end of the pandemic is in sight. But let’s be good citizens and keep masking up until i’d say middle of summer with Biden’s fantastic announcement
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