Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[danlb_2000]

You're missing my point.

I'm not talking about the way that the CDC and others are classifying the statistics. There are some cases that are counted that shouldn't be, and other cases that aren't counted but should. I'm comfortable with the statistics. My beef is with the media coverage and anecdotes that are used to influence behavior. I cited the example of the infant in Connecticut that was smothered to death. I'm not upset that the statistics are off by that one death. I'm upset that the case spun off a thousand headlines of how COVID killed a newborn. It didn't.

I am sure there are cases where that is being used to influence behavior, but I think in most cases that is just the news doing what the news does. An 80 year old with heart disease dying from COVID is not as "interesting" a story as a healthy 20 year old dying from COVID.

 

[danlb_2000]

or perhaps you could have enforced policies that slowed spread of covid and didnt cause people to commit suicide... it didnt need to be an either or.

Of perhaps we enforce the policies but also provide increased assistance to people to help prevent the negative outcomes?

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I am sure there are cases where that is being used to influence behavior, but I think in most cases that is just the news doing what the news does. An 80 year old with heart disease dying from COVID is not as "interesting" a story as a healthy 20 year old dying from COVID.

I'm less upset about the media doing this than I am upset about Ned Lamont doing this.

 

[danlb_2000]

I am confident that people will take a good look at what happened during this pandemic, learn a lot of lessons from it, and then promptly forget everything they learned the next time it happens.

 

[havoc315]

or perhaps you could have enforced policies that slowed spread of covid and didnt cause people to commit suicide... it didnt need to be an either or.

Which is what happened overall.

Suicide Deaths During the COVID-19 Stay-at-Home Advisory in Massachusetts

This cohort study evaluates the association between the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) stay-at-home orders and suicide deaths in Massachusetts.

jamanetwork.com

Suicides were down during the lock downs.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I am confident that people will take a good look at what happened during this pandemic, learn a lot of lessons from it, and then promptly forget everything they learned the next time it happens.

MOAR STIMULUS

 

[rylouisbo]

You're missing my point.

I'm not talking about the way that the CDC and others are classifying the statistics. There are some cases that are counted that shouldn't be, and other cases that aren't counted but should. I'm comfortable with the statistics. My beef is with the media coverage and anecdotes that are used to influence behavior. I cited the example of the infant in Connecticut that was smothered to death. I'm not upset that the statistics are off by that one death. I'm upset that the case spun off a thousand headlines of how COVID killed a newborn. It didn't.

April 1: COVID will kill your babies.

July 17, in fine print: Oops, we may have jumped the gun on that one.

Do we think that's good for the mental health of parents?

yes though all this the scientific community really lost a lot of credibility for people because of the way they made statements. They contradicted each other numerous times, were proven wrong numerous times, made political statements numerous times... and its not just because they found new/better data. They should not declare information as fact when its unknown. Its partially the medias fault as well because of the way they reported on the data.

Which is what happened overall.

Suicide Deaths During the COVID-19 Stay-at-Home Advisory in Massachusetts

This cohort study evaluates the association between the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) stay-at-home orders and suicide deaths in Massachusetts.

jamanetwork.com

Suicides were down during the lock downs.

no suicides went up last year

"Drug deaths account for the largest percentage of deaths of despair, and data offer the most comprehensive picture of that situation. The CDC found that as of June, 13% of Americans had started or increased drug use to cope with the pandemic. That has likely translated into more deaths: Preliminary data from the CDC show a projected 81,230 OD deaths between May 2019 and May 2020, an 18% increase over the same period of 2018 to 2019."

 

[Patcheslee]

Thanks for tracking that. It looks like this week FL is supposed to receive 889,700 doses of Pfizer and Moderna combined (444,850 series worth) and 175,000 Johnson & Johnson. Almost 620,000 people in FL should be able to be added to the "people vaccinated" total this week (2.86% of the population).

From the way I've read the allocation they do it a bit off for Pfizer & Moderna. The 2nd doses are sent 2-3 weeks later, so this week they will be able to give 175100 J&J. Complete Pfizer 132600, Moderna 192,500 doses. Then start 208,000 on Moderna and 239850 on Pfizer. Maximum they can complete will be 500,200 for this allocation. It's sorta a snowball.

 

[Walt d]

I was checking out a doctor who was here for a physician's seminar and she coughed right in my face. I could feel the cough. She didn't even try to avoid me. She was all "sorry" in that 'I have to say I'm sorry but I don't actually care ' voice.

In any case, worry more about the flu. And get vaccinated.

Did you punch her and say i have a muscle spasms all the time’ oh, sorry if your going to have to sneeze! Bend down at the waste
Then let her’ rip!

 

[kong1802]

It's interesting to see that some will claim that not all deaths attributed to COVID were actually COVID related. They will say things like, "it wasn't COVID, they were already sick!"

Then when making an argument that lockdowns were the culprit for suicides, they say things like "It was definitely the lockdown that killed them".

 

[havoc315]

But we also need to understand that it's not always easy to tell which is which, especially when doctors are struggling just to keep up with patient care. Technically speaking nobody dies just "of COVID", COVID causes the failure of one or more bodily systems which is what ultimately kills you. The doctor need to determine if it was COVID that caused the failure, and it may not even be a black and white situation. For example a person's heart may have already been failing, but COVID caused a total failure faster then if the person hadn't been infected.

Let's understand how doctors determine cause of death:
They look for the final straw -- quite often, it's just "cardiac arrest" -- The heart stopped.
But then they look for anything that may have contributed to the cardiac arrest, versus things just incidental.

So... hypertension, infection (including Covid), respiratory arrest, sepsis, pulmonary embolism, etc, etc... The death certificate would properly state these things caused or contributed to the cardiac arrest.
Then there would be incidental findings -- the patients had cataracts for example. The patient had a Stage 1a colon cancer, etc. Things that did not contribute to the death.

 

[GimpYancIent]

I am confident that people will take a good look at what happened during this pandemic, learn a lot of lessons from it, and then promptly forget everything they learned the next time it happens.

Exactly! At last someone that gets it!

 

[Chip Chipperson]

i mean a 20 percent increase in drug/overdose deaths isnt something to diminish... and the effects will be longer lasting as many of these people will become addicted during this time, so the "actual" number of deaths related to lockdown overdoses/suicides will be hard to measure for years.

Even years from now it won't add up to the 500,000+ deaths from COVID. Also, if you see the article I posted shortly before I responded to your post, NJ actually saw a decrease in suicides in 2020 despite having stricter lockdown measures than most states.

 

[havoc315]

yes though all this the scientific community really lost a lot of credibility for people because of the way they made statements. They contradicted each other numerous times, were proven wrong numerous times, made political statements numerous times... and its not just because they found new/better data. They should not declare information as fact when its unknown. Its partially the medias fault as well because of the way they reported on the data.

no suicides went up last year

"Drug deaths account for the largest percentage of deaths of despair, and data offer the most comprehensive picture of that situation. The CDC found that as of June, 13% of Americans had started or increased drug use to cope with the pandemic. That has likely translated into more deaths: Preliminary data from the CDC show a projected 81,230 OD deaths between May 2019 and May 2020, an 18% increase over the same period of 2018 to 2019."

You say suicide than then cite old preliminary numbers about drug deaths?!?!?!??

Suicides:

"the incident rate for suicide deaths in Massachusetts was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.56-0.79) per 100 000 person-months vs 0.80 (95% CI, 0.68-0.93) per 100 000 person-months during the corresponding period in 2019 (incident rate ratio, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.64-1.00)"

That's a statistically significant decline.

 

[Patcheslee]

You say suicide than then cite old preliminary numbers about drug deaths?!?!?!??

Suicides:

"the incident rate for suicide deaths in Massachusetts was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.56-0.79) per 100 000 person-months vs 0.80 (95% CI, 0.68-0.93) per 100 000 person-months during the corresponding period in 2019 (incident rate ratio, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.64-1.00)"

That's a statistically significant decline.

Would it have anything to do with most suicides are while the person is alone? If people are stuck on lockdown with others it could prevent them from attempting.

 

[ABQ]

You say suicide than then cite old preliminary numbers about drug deaths?!?!?!??

Suicides:

"the incident rate for suicide deaths in Massachusetts was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.56-0.79) per 100 000 person-months vs 0.80 (95% CI, 0.68-0.93) per 100 000 person-months during the corresponding period in 2019 (incident rate ratio, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.64-1.00)"

That's a statistically significant decline.

Assuming you are looking at the study from Faust of Brigham & Women's, be aware that he already stated that though the numbers don't look as bad as talking points were predicting them to be, that they are not complete. He only looked at March-May 2020 and goes on to add:
"Any economic downturn can be associated with an increase in suicidality and suicide attempts, and suicide completion," Faust explained. "So it's not that the lockdown's caused this, it's that the failure to control the overall pandemic is what could feed into a rise in suicidality."

Surveys from the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other researchers have found increases in depression, anxiety and suicidal thinking during the pandemic.

Faust is continuing on with his research, examining the state's death data for the remainder of 2020.

 

[danlb_2000]

It's interesting to see that some will claim that not all deaths attributed to COVID were actually COVID related. They will say things like, "it wasn't COVID, they were already sick!"

Then when making an argument that lockdowns were the culprit for suicides, they say things like "It was definitely the lockdown that killed them".

This is a good point. Even if there were more suicides, we would need to determine if they were a result of the lockdowns, or the pandemic in general.

 

[danlb_2000]

Let's understand how doctors determine cause of death:
They look for the final straw -- quite often, it's just "cardiac arrest" -- The heart stopped.
But then they look for anything that may have contributed to the cardiac arrest, versus things just incidental.

So... hypertension, infection (including Covid), respiratory arrest, sepsis, pulmonary embolism, etc, etc... The death certificate would properly state these things caused or contributed to the cardiac arrest.
Then there would be incidental findings -- the patients had cataracts for example. The patient had a Stage 1a colon cancer, etc. Things that did not contribute to the death.

Yeah, and this what caused the big conspiracy last year when people learned that only 6% of death certificates list only COVID which some people took to mean that only 6% of people actually died from COVID.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

yes though all this the scientific community really lost a lot of credibility for people because of the way they made statements. They contradicted each other numerous times, were proven wrong numerous times, made political statements numerous times... and its not just because they found new/better data. They should not declare information as fact when its unknown. Its partially the medias fault as well because of the way they reported on the data.

no suicides went up last year

"Drug deaths account for the largest percentage of deaths of despair, and data offer the most comprehensive picture of that situation. The CDC found that as of June, 13% of Americans had started or increased drug use to cope with the pandemic. That has likely translated into more deaths: Preliminary data from the CDC show a projected 81,230 OD deaths between May 2019 and May 2020, an 18% increase over the same period of 2018 to 2019."

Where you're falling into logical fallacies is assuming that all increases are due to lockdowns. There were surely some who turned to drugs and/or alcohol from the stress of the pandemic in general (having to go to work and deal with the public while working at a grocery store, for example). You're also using drug overdoses to argue that suicides were up, when the 2 are not the same (except when they have reason to believe the overdose was intentional with the purpose of ending their own life).

I'll go back to NJ because that's where I live and can easily find information for: Suicides were down in 2020. Drug deaths were up (figures are currently only available through November 2020, however). Through November 2020, drug deaths were up by 58 total deaths compared to the same period in 2019 (January through November). While the biggest increases occurred in March through June, the month-by-month comparison actually saw decreases every month compared to 2019 for every month from July through November. We still had restrictions in place - and still have them in place now, although they have been gradually lessened starting with allowing indoor dining with 25% capacity around Labor Day. If we blame all of the additional deaths in March through June on the lockdowns, how do we explain away the decrease in deaths over the next 5 months? Also, I think it is safe to bet that the restrictions in place saved much more than 58 lives over those 9 months.

https://www.njcares.gov/pdfs/2020-NJ-Suspected-Overdose-Deaths-11-30-20.pdf

https://www.njcares.gov/pdfs/2019-NJ-Suspected-Overdose-Deaths-12.31.19.pdf

(The table on page 1 of the 2020 file is found on page 13 of the 2019 file for the sake of comparison).

 

[havoc315]

Yeah, and this what caused the big conspiracy last year when people learned that only 6% of death certificates list only COVID which some people took to mean that only 6% of people actually died from COVID.

Yes... not uncommon to get conspiracy theories when people simply don’t understand what they are reading.