Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[rylouisbo]

Don't discount those who will say, "the lockdowns caused hundreds of thousands of deaths"

Do you not think lockdown policies caused deaths via overdoses and suicides?

 

[Chip Chipperson]

Don't discount those who will say, "the lockdowns caused hundreds of thousands of deaths"

For all of the predictions of mass suicide increases in places with the strictest lockdowns, NJ may actually have seen a decrease in suicides in 2020 if the projections hold up.

Suicide deaths in N.J. likely fell in 2020, defying fears amid the coronavirus pandemic

There were 636 deaths by suicide recorded in 2020, according to preliminary totals, down from 2018 and 2019.

www.nj.com

 

[Chip Chipperson]

Do you not think lockdown policies caused deaths via overdoses and suicides?

Certainly not 500,000+ extra deaths worth, no.

 

[Touchdown]

How many kids die *of cancer*?

Not many because they usually die of an infectious disease, and with kids lungs not fully developed, respiratory disease is very common, oh wait...

 

[Chi84]

No I absolutely don’t think it’s the same. I just want them to treat us like adults and continue to tell the truth. I don’t need them to slow play the targets in case something slips. I can handle a change to the plan or projections as things change. What I would prefer to avoid is a lot of confusion. The single biggest challenge the current administration faces is getting enough people to take the vaccines. That needs to be the focus.

People on the fringes make the most noise and get the most attention, but I believe most people in this country are reasonable and want to do the right thing. I was hoping President Biden would address the nation on the subject of this virus soon after taking office to offset some of the click bait headlines and "tell the truth," as least as far as what is known at this point. Instead, given the recent contradictions you pointed out, I'm worried the current administration is trying to figure out what to say in order to manipulate people's behavior. This is not a good strategy.

I agree that getting people to take the vaccines should be the focus, but I doubt we'll see a national campaign to that effect until the supply increases. In Chicago and suburban Cook County, demand for the vaccines is much, much greater than the supply. Bombarding people with the message that they need to get the vaccine at a time when most are not eligible and the people who are eligible can't find it can be tricky. According to projections by our local officials, that should change in a few weeks. Maybe then we'll see more of a push for vaccines.

I can't speak to what is happening in other areas, but what I'm seeing here leads me to conclude that arguments over whether mitigation efforts will end in the late summer, fall or in 2022 are largely academic. The vaccine roll-out, low positivity rate (lowest in 8 months) and the governor's decision to re-open indoor dining have people acting as though COVID is a thing of the past. Stores are not imposing capacity limits and social distancing is not being enforced. Restaurant parking lots are full. If people believe that wearing masks in public, without more, is sufficient to stop the spread of the virus, I can say that most people are still wearing them. But that has been the case in Illinois since May and we still saw major spikes in July and October. Masking is a tool that needs to be used effectively in combination with other measures - it is not an answer to the problem.

 

[Miss Bella]

Is LUVMCO an axe murderer or not an axe murderer? It's not something we will know about for years.

There is absolutely no evidence of any systematic fraud by the hospital systems in mis-reporting Covid. None, whatsoever. Not a shred.

Now we’re comparing fraudulent hospital billing to axe murderes.....well ok then.LoL. This thread never ceases to amaze me.

 

[shipley731]

I'd imagine a lot of medical professionals get it at work (and may only be offered M-F depending on staffing?)

Maybe the same is true for nursing homes?

I work for the UF College of Medicine & got both of my doses on Saturdays. I know they were running the vaccinations 7 days a week at some point, but we aren't getting the same vaccine supply as we were in December / January.

 

[havoc315]

Do you not think lockdown policies caused deaths via overdoses and suicides?

On a mass basis? No.

Even ignoring Covid entirely, lock downs would have prevented more deaths than caused:
Deaths "caused by lockdowns" -- potentially some mental health deaths, domestic violence deaths, deaths as people stalled receiving medical care

But that is more than balanced out by deaths PREVENTED by lock downs, even without Covid: Fewer flu deaths and fewer other infectious deaths, fewer automobile accident deaths, potentially some mental health deaths avoided, etc, etc.

Basically.. if you had massive lockdowns and no Covid, you'd expect total deaths to drop overall.

 

[danlb_2000]

Certainly not 500,000+ extra deaths worth, no.

... and even if it was a large number that should eventually come out in the data since those two causes are less likely to be classified as something else.

 

[JAKECOTCenter]

Hope everyone is safe and doing well.

BUZZY! WE FOUND YOU

 

[danlb_2000]

On a mass basis? No.

Even ignoring Covid entirely, lock downs would have prevented more deaths than caused:
Deaths "caused by lockdowns" -- potentially some mental health deaths, domestic violence deaths, deaths as people stalled receiving medical care

But that is more than balanced out by deaths PREVENTED by lock downs, even without Covid: Fewer flu deaths and fewer other infectious deaths, fewer automobile accident deaths, potentially some mental health deaths avoided, etc, etc.

Basically.. if you had massive lockdowns and no Covid, you'd expect total deaths to drop overall.

Interestingly, some places actually saw an increase in auto-deaths during the lock down. It is surmised, that will less cars on the road, people started being less cautious leading to more accidents.

The Roads Are Quieter Due to Coronavirus, but There Are More Fatal Car Crashes

Fewer drivers are hitting the road during the pandemic, yet police in some places have made an unexpected discovery: an increase in deadly car crashes.

www.wsj.com

 

[havoc315]

In many instances they did not die *of COVID.* They died *with COVID.* That's not the same thing. Representing the latter as if it's the former is dishonest. Maybe you're comfortable justifying the dishonesty on the premise that it will encourage young people to be careful but I'm not.

99.9% of the time, it is the exact same thing. I work with medical examiners dozens of times per year, I read autopsies and death certificates dozens of times per months.

It's extremely rare for any death to have a singular isolated cause of death. Sure, "gun shots to the chest" are pretty obvious, "died in nuclear blast" etc.

But most deaths are multi-factorial, leading to cardiac arrest.

So if someone has Stage 4 cancer -- they don't literally die of cancer. The cancer slowly diminishes their vital organs, as their vital systems start to decline, eventually they are too weak to survive. So guess what -- Someone with cancer who ALSO has active Covid -- Their weakened body can't fight the Covid, so they die. Without Covid, they may have lived another 3 months.. 6 months... 12 months. But Covid is what hit their body, that they couldn't recover from.

Someone else used the example of strokes -- Strokes are directly caused by Covid. Studies have shown Covid causes blood clots... which cause ischemic strokes.

So it's true -- if someone dies in a car accident where their car explodes and they die in the explosion... that wouldn't be a Covid death.
On the other hand, if they are in a traumatic car accident, brought into the ER, they have suffered broken ribs in the car accident. They are positive for Covid, and they have pleural effusions and opacity due to the Covid, further diminishing their pulmonary function, and they then arrest and die.... Then that absolutely would be a death caused by both car accident AND by Covid.

 

[havoc315]

Interestingly, some places actually saw an increase in auto-deaths during the lock down. It is surmised, that will less cars on the road, people started being less cautious leading to more accidents.

The Roads Are Quieter Due to Coronavirus, but There Are More Fatal Car Crashes

Fewer drivers are hitting the road during the pandemic, yet police in some places have made an unexpected discovery: an increase in deadly car crashes.

www.wsj.com

Interesting, but I note that's in "some places." Overall, car accident deaths were down in 2020.

2019 U.S. Traffic Deaths Lowest Since 2014, but 2020 Numbers Aren't Looking Good

In the COVID-19 era, fatal accident percentages are up this year despite the smaller number of vehicles on the roads, NHTSA's latest data shows.

www.caranddriver.com

Basically, deaths per mile traveled, were up. Yes -- potentially those who were driving, were more reckless.
But total number of deaths were down.

 

[eliza61nyc]

People on the fringes make the most noise and get the most attention, but I believe most people in this country are reasonable and want to do the right thing. I was hoping President Biden would address the nation on the subject of this virus soon after taking office to offset some of the click bait headlines and "tell the truth," as least as far as what is known at this point. Instead, given the recent contradictions you pointed out, I'm worried the current administration is trying to figure out what to say in order to manipulate people's behavior. This is not a good strategy.

I agree that getting people to take the vaccines should be the focus, but I doubt we'll see a national campaign to that effect until the supply increases. In Chicago and suburban Cook County, demand for the vaccines is much, much greater than the supply. Bombarding people with the message that they need to get the vaccine at a time when most are not eligible and the people who are can't find it can be tricky. According to projections by our local officials, that should change in a few weeks. Maybe then we'll see more of a push for vaccines.

I can't speak to what is happening in other areas, but what I'm seeing here leads me to conclude that arguments over whether mitigation efforts will end in the late summer, fall or in 2022 are largely academic. The vaccine roll-out, low positivity rate (lowest in 8 months) and the governor's decision to re-open indoor dining have people acting as though COVID is a thing of the past. Stores are not imposing capacity limits and social distancing is not being enforced. Restaurant parking lots are full. If people believe that wearing masks in public, without more, is sufficient to stop the spread of the virus, I can say that most people are still wearing them. But that has been the case in Illinois since May and we still saw major spikes in July and October. Masking is a tool that needs to be used effectively in combination with other measures - it is not an answer to the problem.

It's looking good in Pennsylvania for things to speed up. we've opened up a number of FEMA mass vaccination sites and CVS has begun offering vaccinations (slowly) but that's a great step forward when it becomes available in drug stores.

I think the second bolded is exactly the problem those in charge are wrestling with. So if you don't bring attention to the extreme cases you get the vast majority of folks who act as if this is "just a bad cold" or what we heard here ad nausem, "its no worse than the flu" (I was guilty of this at first).
lol, the last year has proven to me that the quote erroneously attributed to Winston Churchill is so true. "Americans will do the right thing- only after exhausting all other alternatives".

 

[rylouisbo]

Certainly not 500,000+ extra deaths worth, no.

i mean a 20 percent increase in drug/overdose deaths isnt something to diminish... and the effects will be longer lasting as many of these people will become addicted during this time, so the "actual" number of deaths related to lockdown overdoses/suicides will be hard to measure for years.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Someone else used the example of strokes -- Strokes are directly caused by Covid. Studies have shown Covid causes blood clots... which cause ischemic strokes.

In this case, COVID is no different from any other pathogen that provokes sepsis. "Disseminated intravascular coagulation", unless there's a new name for it since I went to med school.

Of course, COVID-19's ability to provoke sepsis on such a wide scale is one of the things that makes it stand out.

 

[danlb_2000]

In many instances they did not die *of COVID.* They died *with COVID.* That's not the same thing. Representing the latter as if it's the former is dishonest. Maybe you're comfortable justifying the dishonesty on the premise that it will encourage young people to be careful but I'm not.

But we also need to understand that it's not always easy to tell which is which, especially when doctors are struggling just to keep up with patient care. Technically speaking nobody dies just "of COVID", COVID causes the failure of one or more bodily systems which is what ultimately kills you. The doctor need to determine if it was COVID that caused the failure, and it may not even be a black and white situation. For example a person's heart may have already been failing, but COVID caused a total failure faster then if the person hadn't been infected.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

99.9% of the time, it is the exact same thing. I work with medical examiners dozens of times per year, I read autopsies and death certificates dozens of times per months.

It's extremely rare for any death to have a singular isolated cause of death. Sure, "gun shots to the chest" are pretty obvious, "died in nuclear blast" etc.

But most deaths are multi-factorial, leading to cardiac arrest.

So if someone has Stage 4 cancer -- they don't literally die of cancer. The cancer slowly diminishes their vital organs, as their vital systems start to decline, eventually they are too weak to survive. So guess what -- Someone with cancer who ALSO has active Covid -- Their weakened body can't fight the Covid, so they die. Without Covid, they may have lived another 3 months.. 6 months... 12 months. But Covid is what hit their body, that they couldn't recover from.

Someone else used the example of strokes -- Strokes are directly caused by Covid. Studies have shown Covid causes blood clots... which cause ischemic strokes.

So it's true -- if someone dies in a car accident where their car explodes and they die in the explosion... that wouldn't be a Covid death.
On the other hand, if they are in a traumatic car accident, brought into the ER, they have suffered broken ribs in the car accident. They are positive for Covid, and they have pleural effusions and opacity due to the Covid, further diminishing their pulmonary function, and they then arrest and die.... Then that absolutely would be a death caused by both car accident AND by Covid.

But we also need to understand that it's not always easy to tell which is which, especially when doctors are struggling just to keep up worth patient care. Technically speaking nobody dies just "of COVID", COVID causes the failure of one or more bodily systems which is what ultimately kills you. The doctor need to determine if it was COVID that caused the failure, and it may not even be a black and which situation. For example a person's heart may have already been failing, but COVID caused a total failure faster then if the person hadn't been infected.

You're missing my point.

I'm not talking about the way that the CDC and others are classifying the statistics. There are some cases that are counted that shouldn't be, and other cases that aren't counted but should. I'm comfortable with the statistics. My beef is with the media coverage and anecdotes that are used to influence behavior. I cited the example of the infant in Connecticut that was smothered to death. I'm not upset that the statistics are off by that one death. I'm upset that the case spun off a thousand headlines of how COVID killed a newborn. It didn't.

April 1: COVID will kill your babies.

July 17, in fine print: Oops, we may have jumped the gun on that one.

Do we think that's good for the mental health of parents?

 

[rylouisbo]

On a mass basis? No.

Even ignoring Covid entirely, lock downs would have prevented more deaths than caused:
Deaths "caused by lockdowns" -- potentially some mental health deaths, domestic violence deaths, deaths as people stalled receiving medical care

But that is more than balanced out by deaths PREVENTED by lock downs, even without Covid: Fewer flu deaths and fewer other infectious deaths, fewer automobile accident deaths, potentially some mental health deaths avoided, etc, etc.

Basically.. if you had massive lockdowns and no Covid, you'd expect total deaths to drop overall.

or perhaps you could have enforced policies that slowed spread of covid and didnt cause people to commit suicide... it didnt need to be an either or.

 

[danlb_2000]

You're missing my point.

I'm not talking about the way that the CDC and others are classifying the statistics. There are some cases that are counted that shouldn't be, and other cases that aren't counted but should. I'm comfortable with the statistics. My beef is with the media coverage and anecdotes that are used to influence behavior. I cited the example of the infant in Connecticut that was smothered to death. I'm not upset that the statistics are off by that one death. I'm upset that the case spun off a thousand headlines of how COVID killed a newborn. It didn't.

I am sure there are cases where that is being used to influence behavior, but I think in most cases that is just the news doing what the news does. An 80 year old with heart disease dying from COVID is not as "interesting" a story as a healthy 20 year old dying from COVID.