Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Touchdown]

It's a little to early to claim victory, we do not know if the current downward trend will continue. At the moment the case number trend has flattened out. Still be a week or two before we know if this is a numerical anomaly, a short term slowing, or the beginning of another surge.

Not to disagree but just inject some hope, Wisconsin has been slightly ahead of national trends since November, our case curve flatlined and midweek actually rose on early reports. However, as the week wore on our numbers began to drop again:

If you look at the second graph (which I had to cut off the labels, grey bars are negative tests, blue positives and maroon line is 7 day average % positive) you’ll notice the little rise in % positive occurring with the highest amount of test returned ever in our state. This suggests that the winter storm caused a massive delay in test returns and this rise was a red herring. I fully expect numbers to return to downtrending nationally next week. Here’s hoping

 

[danlb_2000]

Not to disagree but just inject some hope, Wisconsin has been slightly ahead of national trends since November, our case curve flatlined and midweek actually rose on early reports. However, as the week wore on our numbers began to drop again:

View attachment 536062View attachment 536061If you look at the second graph (which I had to cut off the labels, grey bars are negative tests, blue positives and maroon line is 7 day average % positive) you’ll notice the little rise in % positive occurring with the highest amount of test returned ever in our state. This suggests that the winter storm caused a massive delay in test returns and this rise was a red herring. I fully expect numbers to return to downtrending nationally next week. Here’s hoping

Still think it's way overly optimistic to think the pandemic will be over by the end of April.

 

[Touchdown]

Still think it's way overly optimistic to think the pandemic will be over by the end of April.

Oh I agree with that, best case in my mind is this summer, but even money is on early fall.

 

[Mark52479]

Went to Orlando today and was at the Andretti go-kart place. Some people were maskless. I had mine on tight and wearing glasses (nerd immunity). I hope I didn’t catch it but man Florida needs to be better at enforcing masks. I know low bar, but I’m doing my duty by masking myself so tight and my OCD taking over whenever I wash my hands. I think I might start putting my kn95 over my space mountain mask from now on....

There really is no mask mandate in Florida.

The problem is, individuals CAN NOT be fined for not wearing masks. That is a law that started in Sept. Business still can be for allowing people in with no masks, but, even that is rarely being enforced down here.

 

[correcaminos]

So you are calling my friend who lost her 50 year old son a liar!

Of course that would be the response. I said that's not how it works. They don't ask permission. They decide after examining and treatments what was the cause. Whatever you claim is what you claim, but that's just not how it works. Period.

I lost my aunt and numerous friends this past year. All losses suck, but I'm just saying we don't choose what our death certificates say. We were less than thrilled with what they chose on my mom's but it was in line for her type of cancer.

 

[raymusiccity]

I think it will be closer to 90% for that group since 80% was the number who said they would get it right away if eligible, but of the people who said they would not about a third said they wouldn’t because they wanted to wait to see if it was safe and effective. I can’t imagine how much longer they would need to wait for that, but I expect most of that group to come around. The other 2/3 of the no’s who are either against all vaccines or feel this one was rushed will be tougher to convince. No amount of time is likely to sway them and at least some of those people are refusing on principle as opposed to for actual scientific doubts. It’s tough to battle that. It may be that vaccine passports that allow you to do certain things only if vaccinated would bring some of those people in, but that’s months and months down the road so no immediate impact.

Statistics can be manipulated to support any argument. I think we're missing alot of context when it comes to Covid. Not a a mention of flu season causing any deaths. If so many are dying from Covid, why hasn't the overall U S. Death rate rise

DeSantis has made sure that:


Florida has delayed reporting data.


Florida has limited reporting data. ("The state Department of Health on Wednesday ordered an investigation of all pandemic fatalities, one week after House Speaker Jose Oliva slammed the death data from medical examiners as “often lacking in rigor” and undermining "the completeness and reliability of the death records.”)


Florida does not count non-resident deaths as COVID deaths.


Florida does not count Covid CODs as determined by medical examiners after death. ("Florida in August changed its rules for determining whether someone died of COVID-19, moving that responsibility from public medical examiners to the doctors who treated the patients. The change was meant to relieve medical examiners who were swamped with COVID deaths, but it also created inconsistencies in how COVID deaths are documented and raised new questions about the accuracy and timeliness of the state’s COVID-19 death counts.

Florida Surgeon General Scott Rivkees this week ordered an investigation into delayed reporting of COVID deaths, noting that some are now being reported two months late. A spokesman for Gov. Ron DeSantis questioned how a death could be caused by COVID months after a positive test result. At the same time, health experts say it is more likely that Florida’s COVID deaths, now at more than 16,500, are understated.

Jill Fisch is convinced her 78-year-old mother, Marjorie Levy, died from the virus in her Palm Beach County nursing home. But the doctor listed “natural causes” as the cause of death on the death certificate. Fisch said her mother tested positive for the virus on Sept. 29 and died on Oct. 9. “There is no way it wasn’t COVID-related,” she said.

Isaiah Clark, owner of Bell & Clark Funeral Home in Riviera Beach, said several times he has been told a deceased person is COVID-positive when he arrives to pick them up at a hospital, only to find no mention of the virus on the death certificate. “It has become a mess whether they want to admit it or not.")


Florida has refused to retroactively add deaths that were not counted as COVID deaths.


Florida has as many deaths as New York and New Jersey COMBINED (since September 1st).


I could keep going on but "the flu is worse

"While coronavirus deaths are often recorded days or weeks later, Florida abruptly stopped including deaths that occurred more than one month earlier in its daily count on October 24, ten days before the election. Older deaths had consistently been included in the earlier data. The change came after Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' administration announced that it would review every suspected coronavirus death before it is reported. The state began to include the older deaths in its daily counts again on November 17.

The discrepancy was discovered by a University of South Florida professor, according to The South Florida Sun-Sentinel. Jason Salemi, an epidemiologist at the University of South Florida, said he was "surprised" by the gap but "drew no conclusions," according to the report, noting that Florida's death data "continues to be a bit of a black box."

The death data between September 23 and October 20 included 1,128 deaths that had occurred at least a month earlier, or 44% of all reported deaths during that span. When the state resumed reporting the older deaths after the election, a large number of deaths had occurred more than two months earlier, according to an analysis by Salemi.

Prior to the gap in the death data, Florida Surgeon General Dr. Scott Rivkees announced that the state would conduct an additional review of the reported deaths before releasing them publicly "to ensure the accuracy of COVID-19 related deaths.""

 

[danlb_2000]

Statistics can be manipulated to support any argument. I think we're missing alot of context when it comes to Covid. Not a a mention of flu season causing any deaths. If so many are dying from Covid, why hasn't the overall U S. Death rate rise

It has, significantly.

 

[Chi84]

Perfect example of his statements not being clear. Maybe that is what he really meant, but we have no way of knowing. There is no clear and obvious definition for what each of those statements actually means. The news media and headline writers certainly didn’t draw a distinction. When he’s asked about a return to normal the answer shouldn‘t be that inconsistent.

I don't have strong feelings one way or the other about Dr. Fauci, but when you're hounded to make statements all day every day, it's understandable that some statements could be inconsistent. One thing that has become commonplace is taking statements out of the context in which they were made. A reporter sets out a string of hypotheticals in which COVID mutates, people resist the vaccine, etc. and then asks whether we still might have to wear masks in 2022. Dr. Fauci says it's possible. The headline reads, "Dr. Fauci says it's possible we will will still be wearing masks in 2022." And reporting is so poor these days that you often can't find the rest of the interview. People in this thread insist that Chapek said "it's guaranteed" or that there is "no doubt" WDW will require masks until the end of 2021. I listened to the interview and certainly did not come to that conclusion.

 

[GimpYancIent]

Speaking of masks. Food for thought! Masks filter out quite a bit of pollen and other irritants that adversely effect allergy sufferers. Hey a multi purpose piece of protective gear.

 

[Touchdown]

So you are calling my friend who lost her 50 year old son a liar!

Are you calling my entire profession liars only out for money and nefariously involved in a plot to control Americans?

Let me tell you you missed out, subjecting yourself to 8 years of education post high school at high expense (hundreds of thousands of dollars,) followed by 3-10 years of indentured servitude at median or below median salary working 80+ hours a week before you finally make a high income salary is just the quickest way to make a buck. Also everyone works 12 hour days, has to take call and works nights weekends and holidays too am I right?

Im not saying we should be pitied or that we deserve more then what we get (we dont, I’m very happy with my life choices, throw some more love to our support staff and RNs) but to just turn around and throw us all under the bus is just wrong.

 

[bdearl41]

It is amazing how so many people have nearly the exact same story of a friend whose relative died and they absolutely know the person didn’t die of COVID but the hospital, not the doctor, reported it as COVID. This latest repeat just left off the lawsuit.

It’s all about money. A hospital receives 3x the amount of financial federal aid for a Covid related death versus any other type of death.

 

[Touchdown]

It’s all about money. A hospital receives 3x the amount of financial federal aid for a Covid related death versus any other type of death.

Hospitals don’t get paid to kill people, medical patients are a drain on hospital finances because they (including Covid pts) at best are treated for at cost for the hospital, but most of the time they lose money on them.

Procedures and surgeries are where the moneys at, if Covid could be corrected with surgery and suddenly everyone was getting this surgery then you would have an argument.

 

[DisneyCane]

Wait, we can ask what is put on our death certificates? Man, i need to leave some cool causes in my will. I don’t want congestive heart failure, give me blunt force trauma with “hang-gliding off Everest” as a co-morbidity please. Sounds way cooler

Not COVID related but when my sister-in-law died and alcohol abuse was listed as a contributing factor (she was in her 20's), my father-in-law requested that the medical examiner remove the reference so she wouldn't look bad to people who saw it. The ME revised it. This is 100% fact and not some conspiracy theory.

 

[danlb_2000]

It’s all about money. A hospital receives 3x the amount of financial federal aid for a Covid related death versus any other type of death.

So if people didn't suddenly start dying from COVID last year, what did they suddenly start dying of? Because a lot more people died last year then in a average year.

 

[GoofGoof]

I don't have strong feelings one way or the other about Dr. Fauci, but when you're hounded to make statements all day every day, it's understandable that some statements could be inconsistent. One thing that has become commonplace is taking statements out of the context in which they were made. A reporter sets out a string of hypotheticals in which COVID mutates, people resist the vaccine, etc. and then asks whether we still might have to wear masks in 2022. Dr. Fauci says it's possible. The headline reads, "Dr. Fauci says it's possible we will will still be wearing masks in 2022." And reporting is so poor these days that you often can't find the rest of the interview. People in this thread insist that Chapek said "it's guaranteed" or that there is "no doubt" WDW will require masks until the end of 2021. I listened to the interview and certainly did not come to that conclusion.

I agree the reporting is poor these days and he is bombarded with requests for interviews.

My concern is that Fauci and the current administration are not being clear and consistent with their messaging. You guys all know I was no fan of Emperor Trump so this isn’t a politically biased opinion, just some constructive criticism. We are almost out of the woods so to speak but one of the only things that can trip us up as we approach the finish line is vaccine resistance. We need everyone to get vaccinated as soon as humanly possible. Right now demand far exceeds supply so we have no issue but in as little as a month or 2 we are going to hit the point where we need the “fence sitters“ to come in for their jab. If the headlines and mixed message is telling people we won’t have a return to normal until 2022 then people may be in no rush to get vaccinated. If instead the consistent message and talking point was that if we all get vaccinated as soon as possible we may get a return to normal this summer or by the Fall that’s a much better goal to shoot for. I’m highly disappointed if the administration’s true goal is a return to normal by 2022 or Christmas and if that’s not really the goal then I’m highly disappointed they keep saying it to sandbag the timeline so they can over achieve. We spent 9 months frustrated with lies and conspiracy theories from the federal government and all we wanted was someone to tell the truth and tell it to us straight. I am disappointed if we are just continuing that.

The Chapek thing is just typical Disney fanboy chatter. The question he was answering was from a sell side analyst who was attempting to update his model with park revenues for the remainder of the fiscal year. Chapek’s resp saying it was likely masks and distancing were going to be with us through this year was almost certainly in reference to the fiscal year and not calendar year so meaning through 9/30/2021. When he says he thinks that stuff will be gone early in 2022 he again is talking the 2022 fiscal year which start 10/1/2021. For people not used to listening to earnings calls and don’t understand the fiscal vs calendar year distinction I can understand why it was confusing. On the earnings call the focus is to give financial info to shareholders and analysts not to update park fans on what to expect. He also followed up that statement saying that if the vaccine rollout is highly successful and if the vaccine is available to the general public by April that‘s a game changer and could mean the timeline moves up. He was clearly leaving the door open to relaxing or eliminating some or all restrictions as early as some time this summer. As you said people took those comments and assumed it meant masks and distancing until after Jan 2022.

 

[GoofGoof]

As far as the rest of this back and forth on conspiracy theories and fake Covid deaths go I don’t think there’s any reason to rehash that again. If you want to believe in QAnon conspiracies and crazy talk this is a free country, feel free. Nobody here is going to change their minds on that. We should all just agree to disagree on that and move on.

 

[rylouisbo]

The pandemic is never gonna end cause they keep moving the goal posts. This was supposed to be mitigation policies to slow spread. Now it’s policies to eliminate spread but this won’t be eliminated for years at earliest. Too many sheep. Y’all actually defending this new mask policy... lol

again, compare Florida and Michigan or Illinois... completely different mask policies and enforcement but Florida is having better results. Your masks are a placebo but enjoy putting them on between bites lol

 

[havoc315]

The pandemic is never gonna end cause they keep moving the goal posts. This was supposed to be mitigation policies to slow spread. Now it’s policies to eliminate spread but this won’t be eliminated for years at earliest. Too many sheep. Y’all actually defending this new mask policy... lol

again, compare Florida and Michigan or Illinois... completely different mask policies and enforcement but Florida is having better results. Your masks are a placebo but enjoy putting them on between bites lol

Masks are not a placebo. Study after study prove they work.
The goal has always been elimination of the virus.
If everyone actually did what they should, the vaccine would be GONE in weeks to months, not years.

 

[havoc315]

It won't be over in April at all but nice to think it will.

Correct. For a variety of potential reasons, cases have already started to rise again we may be in the midst of another surge in March/April.

Reasonable optimism could. MAYBE... POSSIBLY.. hope for truly significant improvement by June/July.

 

[Touchdown]

The pandemic is never gonna end cause they keep moving the goal posts. This was supposed to be mitigation policies to slow spread. Now it’s policies to eliminate spread but this won’t be eliminated for years at earliest. Too many sheep. Y’all actually defending this new mask policy... lol

again, compare Florida and Michigan or Illinois... completely different mask policies and enforcement but Florida is having better results. Your masks are a placebo but enjoy putting them on between bites lol

Yup, totally not going to end, things are horrible and only getting worse...

For the first time since September our hospitalized pts nationally are below 50k.