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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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- coronavirus covid covid-19
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GoofGoof
Premium Member
95% does not equal 100%. Basic math. If we have vaccinated 10M people with both doses so far to date and the vaccines are 95% effective that means there are 500,000 people walking around fully vaccinated who aren’t really fully immune. Doesn’t mean they will all get Covid, but it’s also not a shock that 1 of them came in contact with the virus and tested positive. Nothing to see here.
OC Man Tests Positive For COVID-19 Weeks After Getting Second Vaccine Dose
Monday marked three weeks since a Lake Forest man received his second dose of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine, and one day since he got a positive COVID-19 test result.losangeles.cbslocal.com
We knew it was a possibility. Did anyone else see this? Sorry if it was posted.
On the details of the story, the guy‘s live in girl friend tested positive 5 days after his second shot so he was likely infected well before the 2 week after 2nd shot period.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
Exactly. I think a good field test for the effectiveness against infection will be watching the Florida long term care facility report. It lists the total currently positive residents (and staff) for each day.
I don't know what the uptake percentage was for residents but as of 2/1, supposedly all were offered the first shot. That means that by 2/28 all who wanted to be vaccinated will have finished the series.
As of yesterday, there were 1,830 positive residents (1.34% of the total) which was down from a recent peak of 3.651 on 1/17. If that number trends towards zero at a significantly faster rate than the overall population, it would indicate that the vaccine is preventing infections and spread to a significant degree in addition to preventing almost all serious illness and death among the vaccinated (assuming/hoping that trend continues).
Jrb1979
Well-Known Member
US considers Covid-19 testing requirement for domestic air travel
The Biden administration is considering a rule that would require negative Covid-19 test results for domestic air travel in the United States, according to Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
www.cnn.com
Not sure if this has been posted. If they do implement this its going to hurt the airlines big time. Air Canada has laid off 1500 people yesterday due to lack of flights.
danlb_2000
Premium Member
Yeah, as more people get vaccinated we are really going to need a more fine grained way of measuring the progress of the virus.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
This would be an absolute disaster and also make no sense. Nobody respectable has suggested that spread onboard aircraft is significant. The international requirement is preventing (to some degree) people infected (potentially with variants not existing in the US) from entering the country. There is no such requirement for domestic vehicular travel. Even the States that have required negative tests for non-essential interstate travel haven't made any attempt to make it enforceable.US considers Covid-19 testing requirement for domestic air travel
The Biden administration is considering a rule that would require negative Covid-19 test results for domestic air travel in the United States, according to Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
Not sure if this has been posted. If they do implement this its going to hurt the airlines big time. Air Canada has laid off 1500 people yesterday due to lack of flights.
All this would do is have people drive instead or cancel trips if driving isn't feasible. This will really hurt the airlines for sure and likely further damage the hospitality industry recovery.
I don't even know why this would be considered at a time when the daily infection rate nationwide is dropping at a rapid rate and more and more people are vaccinated daily.
JoeCamel
Well-Known Member
Some percentage of the prior positive people died reducing the number but overall it does look like we are headed the right direction. If people can just keep it up through summer we can be out of this.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Long term care, hospital visits and doctors office visits will be the true measure of control. For “normal life”.
I agree.
We don’t want anyone dying...but we need to eliminate “hot zones” or spikes to get out of the PPE
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
That is definitely true. I'd expect something in the 15-20% mortality rate for long term care facilities. Based on the trend, those who died aren't being replaced by new infections.
Today is a good day. I think it is a record for agreements between us!
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Today is a good day. I think it is a record for agreements between us!
That wasn’t lost on me either...it must be the vaccine talking
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Rich Brownn
Well-Known Member
Christmas spike is subsiding
Disney Experience
Well-Known Member
I agree.
95% effectiveness is measured in the Pfizer and the Moderna Phase 3 of those who had symptomatic covid. The study protocol does not attempt to measure asymptomatic nor transmission. Technically nothing can be said by the study clinically on those specific issues.
But there are animal challenge studies and lab studies ( using phase 3 sera) that at a minimum point to decrease asymptomatic duration and transmission.
danlb_2000
Premium Member
But it's also subsiding in countries that don't celebrate Christmas.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
If I had gotten the vaccine I would start to think the nanobot mind control was real!Wow...3rd time today
correcaminos
Well-Known Member
The only "shades of gray" would be tracking severity levels. Otherwise yes or no for the vaccines in question for the person who tested positive. Even J&J has x percent effective as in x percent do not get sick. Then the shades of gray would be how severe and what is defined for those who do. Zero deaths or hospitalizations would not be a gray shade either.
So to be true you are making it more gray than it is for efficacy ratings.
Thanks for more details. Still asymptomatic is good for outcomes even if infected before the 1 or 2 weeks is up.
"U.S. government researchers found that two masks are better than one in slowing coronavirus spread, but health officials stopped short of recommending that everyone double up.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Wednesday reported the results of a lab experiment that spaced two artificial heads 6 feet from each other and checked to see how many coronavirus-sized particles spewed by one were inhaled by the other.
The researchers found that wearing one mask — surgical or cloth — blocked around 40% of the particles coming toward the head that was breathing in. When a cloth mask was worn on top of a surgical mask, about 80% were blocked.
When both the exhaling and inhaling heads were double-masked, more than 95% of the particles were blocked, said the CDC’s Dr. John Brooks.
“The first challenge is to get as many as people as possible masking. And then for those that do mask, to help them get the best benefit out of that mask,” Brooks said.
The study had many limitations: The researchers used one brand of surgical mask and one kind of cloth mask, and it’s not clear if results would be the same with every product. But it echoes some earlier research that suggests two masks are better than one.
“It works,” Brooks said.
The CDC also was updating its guidance to address wearing two masks. If done correctly, a cloth mask worn over a surgical mask can tighten the gaps around the mask’s edges that can let virus particles in, the CDC said."
apnews.com
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Wednesday reported the results of a lab experiment that spaced two artificial heads 6 feet from each other and checked to see how many coronavirus-sized particles spewed by one were inhaled by the other.
The researchers found that wearing one mask — surgical or cloth — blocked around 40% of the particles coming toward the head that was breathing in. When a cloth mask was worn on top of a surgical mask, about 80% were blocked.
When both the exhaling and inhaling heads were double-masked, more than 95% of the particles were blocked, said the CDC’s Dr. John Brooks.
“The first challenge is to get as many as people as possible masking. And then for those that do mask, to help them get the best benefit out of that mask,” Brooks said.
The study had many limitations: The researchers used one brand of surgical mask and one kind of cloth mask, and it’s not clear if results would be the same with every product. But it echoes some earlier research that suggests two masks are better than one.
“It works,” Brooks said.
The CDC also was updating its guidance to address wearing two masks. If done correctly, a cloth mask worn over a surgical mask can tighten the gaps around the mask’s edges that can let virus particles in, the CDC said."
CDC study finds two masks are better than one vs. COVID-19
NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. government researchers found that two masks are better than one in slowing coronavirus spread, but health officials stopped short of recommending that everyone double up.
apnews.com
bdearl41
Well-Known Member
There are many reasons but historically if you look, Most pandemics only naturally last about 18 months with major spike being around the 12 month mark. This seems to be consistent with 1968, 1918, cholera, and typhoid in that sense.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
I get your point...but it doesn’t matter what I know/think.
What matters is the PR game over the next 6 months. This is a mass exercise...and giving the masses less to chew on is best.
If you say “95%” and people are still having closings/cancellations/hospitalizations hit the media...the “it’s all bull
” segment is gonna grow...because it’s their first instinct on EVERYTHING anyway.And we don’t need that.
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