Polkadotdress
Well-Known Member
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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- coronavirus covid covid-19
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bdearl41
Well-Known Member
I would argue natural infections have been going on for at least 16 months by now, and way more people have had the virus than counted for. I’d say upwards of 80-90 million.
oceanbreeze77
Well-Known Member
At some point they're going need to pause AZ distribution across the board until they come back with more extensive research regarding its efficacy because people are getting very antsy over it. There is already so much hesitation when it comes to people wanting the vaccine, this doesn't help the case. I am already hearing of stories from across the pond that people are upset they got the AZ one.Ok, so the South African variant is bad news...
AstraZeneca’s Vaccine Does Not Work Well Against Virus Variant in South Africa (Published 2021)
The vaccine, developed with Oxford, was found not to prevent the virus variant rampant in South Africa from causing mild or moderate disease. In the U.S., Super Bowl parties raise worries about new surges.www.nytimes.com
South Africa halted use of the AstraZeneca-Oxford coronavirus vaccine on Sunday after evidence emerged that the vaccine did not protect clinical-trial participants from mild or moderate illness caused by the more contagious virus variant that was first seen there.Scientists in South Africa said on Sunday that a similar problem held among people who had been infected by earlier versions of the coronavirus: the immunity they acquired naturally did not appear to protect them from mild or moderate cases when reinfected by the variant, known as B.1.351....The B.1.351 variant has already spread to at least 32 countries, including the United States.It was not clear from the studies outlined by South African scientists on Sunday whether the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine protected against severe disease from the B.1.351 variant.The clinical trial participants who were evaluated were relatively young and unlikely to become severely ill, making it impossible for the scientists to determine if the variant interfered with the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine’s ability to protect against severe Covid-19, hospitalizations, or deaths.However, based on the immune responses detected in blood samples from people who were given the vaccine, the scientists said they believed that the vaccine could yet protect against more severe cases.If further studies show that it does, South African health officials said on Sunday that they would consider resuming use of the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine.
A study bolsters the C.D.C.’s prediction that a more contagious variant will dominate U.S. cases by March.
A more contagious variant of the coronavirus first found in Britain is spreading rapidly in the United States, doubling roughly every 10 days, according to a new study.Analyzing half a million coronavirus tests and hundreds of genomes, a team of researchers predicted that in a month this variant could become predominant in the United States, potentially bringing a surge of new cases and increased risk of death.The new research offers the first nationwide look at the history of the variant, known as B.1.1.7, since it arrived in the United States in late 2020. Last month, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned that B.1.1.7 could become predominant by March if it behaved the way it did in Britain. The new study confirms that projected path.
Its a shame how this is developing because the vaccines were developed for the ORIGINAL strain, and now we are racing neck and neck with these variants. I know this is how viruses work, and I know we are so close to the finish line, but being stuck in this pandemic and all it comes with (anti maskers, anti vaxxers, the news cycle, etc) is exhausting.
LittleBuford
Well-Known Member
On what basis are you saying these things?
correcaminos
Well-Known Member
Hardest hit were vaccinated first. Add in with holidays ending and cases dropped. It's not hard to figure out why.
To be real this guy needs to be ignored. He's not an expert and doing this for clicks and follows. We've had many variants for a long time. You always post you are scared about random news. Maybe it's time to back away from some news so you can breathe better.
correcaminos
Well-Known Member
Where do you get that? Every bit of news from the manufacturers and researchers say otherwise.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Wait...you saw that the current vaccines are completely ineffective?
Beta coronavirus variant: What is the risk? - BBC News
There are fears that this version of coronavirus, first identified in South Africa, is
www.google.com
correcaminos
Well-Known Member
What? I feel like you are talking in circles. So far the two out there per your own article offer protection. People may fear protection falls but so far it hasn't been proven. AZ-Oxford has shown it hasn't been as effective, but you said two vaccines so since we have 2 here I assumed you did not mean that.Wait...you saw that the current vaccines are completely ineffective?
Beta coronavirus variant: What is the risk? - BBC News
There are fears that this version of coronavirus, first identified in South Africa, is
16 months?
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Ok...we’re on the same page.
I heard the new cdc director say that efficacy may drop to a degree...but still more than adequate for the two variant strains.
Friendly fire
bdearl41
Well-Known Member
History and common sense. Also not allowing myself to succumb to clickbait. I trust people I know in the local health departments and the peer reviewed studies out there.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
27M confirmed cases so 80-90M isn’t completely unrealistic. It’s probably a little lower since we have ramped up testing in the last 6 months but even if the number is 80-90M that’s still a little over 25% in the 16 months you say so probably close to 2 more years to get over 60% needed for herd immunity. So while natural infections combined with mass vaccinations can get us where we need to be, relying just on natural infections will take quite a bit longer. I am also skeptical that the latest downward movement in cases is a sign of the beginning of the end naturally. Without the vaccines we would almost certainly see another wave surge up. It’s possible if the vaccine rollout stays on track that we don’t have another major wave.
LittleBuford
Well-Known Member
“History and common sense” is a very different answer from “peer reviewed studies”. Which peer-reviewed studies have you read that support your earlier claims? Can you provide links?
danlb_2000
Premium Member
Can you point me to those studies? I know there has been speculation that the firsts cases were as far back as October, but I have seen nothing confirming it.
danlb_2000
Premium Member
Initial vaccinations are focused on people who are at highest risk from dying which should show up in a reduced number of deaths, but these probably aren't the people who are driving the spread so I remain skeptical that the vaccine is currently driving the reduction in cases.
Disney Experience
Well-Known Member
Mind you this is a news article and not direct research, but it gives another reason beyond deaths why just waiting for herd immunity vs lets get vaccinated would have had a poorer outcome for a country’s overall health.
www.mercurynews.com
Months after fighting coronavirus, some now face heart, lung or neurological problems
An estimated 10% of those infected with COVID-19 may suffer long-term complications that can affect any organ system
www.mercurynews.com
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Animal_Kingdom_09
Active Member
October/November 2019 in China would be 16 months ago.
Even in the US, it is likely that COVID-19 was present early on. Florida had cases with COVID-like symptoms as early as December 2019 and January 2020, which coincides with all of the holiday tourists that we see in the state. HPIV (Parainfluenza) can have similar symptoms in severe cases, but it is not really an adult disease and it usually is not severe. I do not believe that it has the long term symptoms that some people experience with COVID either.
This article was probably posted back on post 2000 or so, and it has a lot of politics embedded, but in case you have not read it...
Miami Herald Article
Heppenheimer
Well-Known Member
It should be pointed out that even though we're seeing a decline in new cases, we're still far above the previous peaks. What we're seeing right now is probably just the holiday spikes tapering out as people stopped mixing in large numbers and returned to their bunkers (I'm hoping this past Sunday wasn't another needless super-spreader event).
The challenge now is to ride this downward wave while we wait for a critical mass of people to receive the vaccine. I really hope we've learned our lesson by now and people stay home for St. Patrick's Day, Mardi Gras/Carnival/Fasching, Family Day, Spring Break, Easter, Memorial Day, etc. this year... but I have my sincere doubts.
SamusAranX
Well-Known Member
My grandmother finally got her appointment in Virginia, in two weeks. How far apart are the doses again? I plan to hit the road and come see her after he second dose.
JoeCamel
Well-Known Member
Humans being humans or americans etc I hold the same doubts
JoeCamel
Well-Known Member
Depends on which one, 3 weeks or 4 weeks
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