Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Disney Experience]

So basically around 20% of the population potentially infected in about a year. If it takes 60% to reach herd immunity and the virus spread at the same rate we would have about 2 years left to reach natural herd immunity. I assume as more people get infected spread would actually slow potentially stretching the timeline out even longer.

Probably will take more than 60%.

Classic herd immunity formula:

Herd Immunity achieved at %= (1-1/VirusReproductionRate)/efficacy.

Efficacy would have to be blended rate once JnJ is included, and would have to adjust for efficacy given the forecasted prevalence of mutations. Mutations would also impact R0(VirusReproductionRate) estimate.

 

[GoofGoof]

Probably will take more than 60%.

Classic herd immunity formula:

Herd Immunity achieved at %= (1-1/VirusReproductionRate)/efficacy.

Efficacy would have to be blended rate once JnJ is included, and would have to adjust for prevalence of mutations.

I wasn’t talking about with the vaccine. Natural herd immunity.

 

[Disney Experience]

I wasn’t talking about with the vaccine. Natural herd immunity.

Ahh, then it could be as low as that as long as R0 < 2.5

 

[Disney Experience]

I wasn’t talking about with the vaccine. Natural herd immunity.

So basically around 20% of the population potentially infected in about a year. If it takes 60% to reach herd immunity and the virus spread at the same rate we would have about 2 years left to reach natural herd immunity. I assume as more people get infected spread would actually slow potentially stretching the timeline out even longer.

Three years (total, which is 2 years from now) if we had no vaccines make sense since the world is trying to mitigate the transmission (Thereby extended the time to achieve herd immunity [But decreasing healthcare system stress/deaths])

There is a chart in the following article on the waves of the 1918-1919 pandemic. Their peaks would be greater than we have had but the end point of the disease would have been sooner than current world if there were no vaccines.

Different type of virus but still herd immunity timeline is probably relevant.

1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics - PMC

The "Spanish" influenza pandemic of 1918–1919, which caused ≈50 million deaths worldwide, remains an ominous warning to public health. Many questions about its origins, its unusual epidemiologic features, and the basis of its pathogenicity remain ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/corecgi/tileshop/tileshop.fcgi?p=PMC3&id=432252&s=29&r=2&c=4

 

[Disney Analyst]

So basically around 20% of the population potentially infected in about a year. If it takes 60% to reach herd immunity and the virus spread at the same rate we would have about 2 years left to reach natural herd immunity. I assume as more people get infected spread would actually slow potentially stretching the timeline out even longer.

That’s also assuming there is any sort of immunity that lasts that long.

Imagine we get two years from now, 60% of population has had Covid for first time, but those infected early on are now becoming reinfected...

 

[JAKECOTCenter]

I say thank goodness we got vaccines at the time we did. If the supply wasn't such a mess then I'd feel much better

 

[GoofGoof]

Ahh, then it could be as low as that as long as R0 < 2.5

With the vaccines evenly distributed between Pfizer/Moderna/JnJ we probably need about 70% of the population vaccinated to reach 60% immune. There will be a lot of overlap between naturally immune through infection and the vaccination group as people who had covid get vaccinated too, but we may be able to get another 5-10% of the population naturally covered but not vaccinated. Should give us some cushion in the event Covid is more contagious than thought.

Needing 70% vaccinated we would need to reach 230M people. We should have enough doses to reach that by end of May if things go well with manufacturing.

 

[Disney Experience]

Three years (total, which is 2 years from now) if we had no vaccines make sense since the world is trying to mitigate the transmission (Thereby extended the time to achieve herd immunity [But decreasing healthcare system stress/deaths])

There is a chart in the following article on the waves of the 1918-1919 pandemic. Their peaks would be greater than we have had but the end point of the disease would have been sooner than current world if there were no vaccines.

Different type of virus but still herd immunity timeline is probably relevant.

1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics - PMC

The "Spanish" influenza pandemic of 1918–1919, which caused ≈50 million deaths worldwide, remains an ominous warning to public health. Many questions about its origins, its unusual epidemiologic features, and the basis of its pathogenicity remain ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/corecgi/tileshop/tileshop.fcgi?p=PMC3&id=432252&s=29&r=2&c=4

Another interesting article about the mitigations tried during the 1918-1919 pandemic:

The 1918 Influenza Pandemic: Response

 

[GoofGoof]

That’s also assuming there is any sort of immunity that lasts that long.

Imagine we get two years from now, 60% of population has had Covid for first time, but those infected early on are now becoming reinfected...

Yeah, and the mutations add to that likelihood. Natural herd immunity is a sketchy plan at best.

 

[JAKECOTCenter]

When J&J is approved it better roll out better than Moderna and Pfizer. The planet depends on it. There are so many days where I'm hopeful and then back to doomscrolling. I know it's gonna be like this for a while but I'm just tired of it

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

There is now a state website to register for appointments and also phone numbers for those without internet access. I saw it on the Florida department of health twitter feed.

Hey...3 months behind...rocking and rolling

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So basically around 20% of the population potentially infected in about a year. If it takes 60% to reach herd immunity and the virus spread at the same rate we would have about 2 years left to reach natural herd immunity. I assume as more people get infected spread would actually slow potentially stretching the timeline out even longer.

I think your math might be “light”

Probably will take more than 60%.

Classic herd immunity formula:

Herd Immunity achieved at %= (1-1/VirusReproductionRate)/efficacy.

Efficacy would have to be blended rate once JnJ is included, and would have to adjust for efficacy given the forecasted prevalence of mutations. Mutations would also impact R0(VirusReproductionRate) estimate.

Yeah...that math was a little “light”

I wasn’t talking about with the vaccine. Natural herd immunity.

That isn’t a viable option...they kinda quietly dismissed that a while back...more the “may 2020 C student medical concept”

When they say “herd immunity”...its 100% vaccine induced now.

The vaccines are effective and they’ve got the wheels turning. Forget everything else...

“This is the way”

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

When J&J is approved it better roll out better than Moderna and Pfizer. The planet depends on it. There are so many days where I'm hopeful and then back to doomscrolling. I know it's gonna be like this for a while but I'm just tired of it

The money and infrastructure to support manufacturing and distribution needed to be done in advance to avoid this...it wasn’t.

Six months of rallypalooza following by 2 months of “lame duck boogieman” is what we got.

Have to do better now.

Call the cavalry

 

[GoofGoof]

That isn’t a via option...they kinda quietly dismissed that a while back...more the “may 2020 C student medical concept”

When they say “herd immunity”...its 100% vaccine induced now.

The vaccines are effective and they’ve got the wheels turning. Forget everything else...

“This is the way”

I don’t disagree. The post I originally responded to suggested that maybe this drop in cases we are seeing now is the beginning of the end due to enough people being infected naturally.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

And by the way @GoofGoof @JAKECOTCenter

...hang tight - we’re gonna get there

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I don’t disagree. The post I originally responded to suggested that maybe this drop in cases we are seeing now is the beginning of the end due to enough people being infected naturally.

Nah...it’s just better messaging on prevention...less background noise/distraction...and people getting the s#!¥ scared out of them a little after the holiday distractions are over.

Need to open the spigot on the vaccine drip now though...let’s roll.

 

[GoofGoof]

And by the way @GoofGoof @JAKECOTCenter

...hang tight - we’re gonna get there

7 day daily average of vaccinations up to 1.5M a day

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

7 day daily average of vaccinations up to 1.5M a day

The current admin (which is actually being staffed...for a change...) is sandbagging those numbers. The targets I’m sure are much higher in private...

Can’t get votes (which equals money) if you come in under the bar.

Scotty always fixed the warp drive in 1/4 the time he said it would take...ya know?

 

[JAKECOTCenter]

The money and infrastructure to support manufacturing and distribution needed to be done in advance to avoid this...it wasn’t.

Six months of rallypalooza following by 2 months of “lame duck boogieman” is what we got.

Have to do better now.

Call the cavalry
View attachment 530605

7 day daily average of vaccinations up to 1.5M a day

It's good but like any progress we make will be invalid by the UK variant unless somehow the J&J vaccine goes faster than the spread

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It's good but like any progress we make will be invalid by the UK variant unless somehow the J&J vaccine goes faster than the spread

I think the consensus seems to be that the two vaccination efficacies will fall...but not flatline.

Under the circumstances...it should buy time for a third booster - if needs be.

The Weather upswing in the spring combined with more vaccine net may just be the “collision” we need to get this to sustainable.

There’s always hope.