Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[correcaminos]

people are also less inclined to get tested now that the holiday gatherings are over.

Major testing sites have also converted to Vax sites

Except you cannot get good treatment without tests here at least.

 

[DCBaker]

Numbers are out - there were 120 new reported deaths, along with 7 Non-Florida Resident deaths.

 

[DCBaker]

Current Florida vaccine report -

 

[DisneyCane]

Current Florida vaccine report -

View attachment 530473View attachment 530474

Looks like about 1/3 of the 65+ population has gotten at least one shot. Especially with the data backfill, it shows capacity to give well over 100k shots per day. If the doses are distributed to the state, the entire 65+ population should be able to get the first shot by the end of March, if not sooner.

Hopefully doses start shipping in higher weekly quantities to bring that timeframe forward so that the under 65 population can be vaccinated in larger numbers.

 

[GoofGoof]

What I find interesting is how cases are plummeting. Everywhere. Regardless of vaccines and variants. Maybe just maybe way more people have had it, have immunity and the virus is running out of places to go.

We’ve heard this before. Go back to May or June and there were posts claiming NY had reached herd immunity and that was the reason cases were down over the summer. Didn’t work out too well for the winter wave. Same with FL when the summer ended and cases dropped way down in Sep but spiked again this winter. The virus moves in waves. Without a successful vaccine campaign that won’t change. Cases will drop and things will look good until the next wave. Eventually after a longer period of time we would reach natural herd immunity but that won’t be in less than 12 months of natural infections.

 

[Patcheslee]

While this is great for comfort, 17"-18" (depending on aircraft) of space isn't going to do anything with respect to reducing the spread of COVID but it is terrible for fuel economy if those seats would have been sold. If you block 1/3 of the seats, the fuel burn per available seat mile increases by 50%.

Past those dates price is still higher than I usually pay. Normally purchase flights between end Jan beginning Feb for June. Prices are minimum of $100/seat more so far.

 

[danlb_2000]

We’ve heard this before. Go back to May or June and there were posts claiming NY had reached herd immunity and that was the reason cases were down over the summer. Didn’t work out too well for the winter wave. Same with FL when the summer ended and cases dropped way down in Sep but spiked again this winter. The virus moves in waves. Without a successful vaccine campaign that won’t change. Cases will drop and things will look good until the next wave. Eventually after a longer period of time we would reach natural herd immunity but that won’t be in less than 12 months of natural infections.

Very true, but this is the first significant global downward trend we have seen. Not sure what to attribute that to.

 

[DCBaker]

 

[JoeCamel]

We have the capacity, we need the vaccine

 

[correcaminos]

Very true, but this is the first significant global downward trend we have seen. Not sure what to attribute that to.

View attachment 530503

Vaccines began in December...

 

[danlb_2000]

Vaccines began in December...

Seems a little early for it to have that big an impact.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

While this is great for comfort, 17"-18" (depending on aircraft) of space isn't going to do anything with respect to reducing the spread of COVID

Anything to back that claim up? I’ll take 17” vs. physically touching my seat mate any day.

they could have done this all along (not during shutdown but when knotts was doing it), instead they chose to complain and complain. Good to see them finally adjusting for the times.

Agreed. Despite many “experts” on this site explaining it was completely impossible.

 

[Tom P.]

We’ve heard this before. Go back to May or June and there were posts claiming NY had reached herd immunity and that was the reason cases were down over the summer. Didn’t work out too well for the winter wave. Same with FL when the summer ended and cases dropped way down in Sep but spiked again this winter. The virus moves in waves. Without a successful vaccine campaign that won’t change. Cases will drop and things will look good until the next wave. Eventually after a longer period of time we would reach natural herd immunity but that won’t be in less than 12 months of natural infections.

I don't disagree with your overall premise, but I would point out that we're at the point of having had 12 months of natural infections. The first case in the United States was confirmed on January 21, 2020. By mid-February, real spread was starting to happen. And by March, we were moving into "stay at home order" territory.

 

[GoofGoof]

I don't disagree with your overall premise, but I would point out that we're at the point of having had 12 months of natural infections. The first case in the United States was confirmed on January 21, 2020. By mid-February, real spread was starting to happen. And by March, we were moving into "stay at home order" territory.

The percent of people naturally infected is definitely significant at this point, but not likely close to enough for herd immunity. We are approaching 27M known cases or about 8% of the US population. If the total actually infected is 3 to 4 times that we may be approaching 25% to 30% natural immunity. Not insignificant for sure. We don’t really know for sure how many were sick. The going assumption is almost half the spread is from asymptomatic cases so at least twice as many people were likely sick as reported and likely more.

That being said, I’m not willing to bank on the current downswing in cases meaning the pandemic is naturally winding down. I still think without the vaccine we’d see more waves of virus perhaps even lasting a year or 2 longer. With the vaccine we can be hopeful for a return to somewhat normalcy by the Fall or even sooner.

 

[Disney Experience]

Pfizer Bionetech vaccine are shown in the following study to be effective against the variants. They used engineered virus that do not include all mutations and used sera from study participants to do the analysis.
They acknowledge that clinical data would provide more assurance in the conclusion.

Consistent with other recent reports of the neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 variants or corresponding pseudoviruses by convalescent or post-immunization sera11,12, the neutralization GMT of the serum panel against the virus with three mutations from the SA variant (E484K + N501Y + D614G) was slightly lower than the neutralization GMTs against the N501Y virus or the virus with three mutations from the UK variant (Δ69/70 + N501Y + D614G). However, the magnitude of the differences in neutralization GMTs against any of the mutant viruses in this study was small (0.81- to 1.41-fold), as compared to the greater than four-fold differences in hemagglutination-inhibition titers that have been used to signal potential need for a strain change in influenza vaccines

Neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 spike 69/70 deletion, E484K and N501Y variants by BNT162b2 vaccine-elicited sera - Nature Medicine

Human sera from recipients of the BNT162b2 vaccine can neutralize SARS-CoV-2 viruses containing spike mutations present in globally circulating variants of concern.

www.nature.com

 

[DisneyFan32]

Yup, the world is doomed now. I'm scared about this. Is this is going to be happen or not, or vaccines will down UK variants before it got worse next month.

 

[Disney Experience]

The percent of people naturally infected is definitely significant at this point, but not likely close to enough for herd immunity. We are approaching 27M known cases or about 8% of the US population. If the total actually infected is 3 to 4 times that we may be approaching 25% to 30% natural immunity. Not insignificant for sure. We don’t really know for sure how many were sick. The going assumption is almost half the spread is from asymptomatic cases so at least twice as many people were likely sick as reported and likely more.

That being said, I’m not willing to bank on the current downswing in cases meaning the pandemic is naturally winding down. I still think without the vaccine we’d see more waves of virus perhaps even lasting a year or 2 longer. With the vaccine we can be hopeful for a return to somewhat normalcy by the Fall or even sooner.

Recent study estimate for actual infection rate vs known cases is 2.8 times higher, at least in Virginia.

Seroprevalence and Risk Factors Associated With COVID-19 Infection in Virginia

This cross-sectional study assesses the statewide prevalence of previous infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and the risk factors associated with infection among adult outpatients in Virginia.

jamanetwork.com

These data suggested a total estimated COVID-19 burden that was 2.8-fold higher than that ascertained by PCR-positive case counts.

 

[Kevin_W]

Pfizer Bionetech vaccine are shown in the following study to be effective against the variants. They used engineered virus that do not include all mutations and used sera from study participants to do the analysis.
They acknowledge that clinical data would provide more assurance in the conclusion.

Neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 spike 69/70 deletion, E484K and N501Y variants by BNT162b2 vaccine-elicited sera - Nature Medicine

Human sera from recipients of the BNT162b2 vaccine can neutralize SARS-CoV-2 viruses containing spike mutations present in globally circulating variants of concern.

www.nature.com

Thanks for posting. It's nice to see the data.

 

[GoofGoof]

Recent study estimate for actual infection rate vs known cases is 2.8 times higher, at least in Virginia.

Seroprevalence and Risk Factors Associated With COVID-19 Infection in Virginia

This cross-sectional study assesses the statewide prevalence of previous infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and the risk factors associated with infection among adult outpatients in Virginia.

jamanetwork.com

So basically around 20% of the population potentially infected in about a year. If it takes 60% to reach herd immunity and the virus spread at the same rate we would have about 2 years left to reach natural herd immunity. I assume as more people get infected spread would actually slow potentially stretching the timeline out even longer.

 

[Kevin_W]

Yup, the world is doomed now. I'm scared about this. Is this is going to be happen or not, or vaccines will down UK variants before it got worse next month.

It's fine to be scared about it, but it's a far cry from "we're doomed". Again, here is the dat from South Africa itself without a vaccine: