GoofGoof
Premium Member
I wasn’t talking about with the vaccine. Natural herd immunity.
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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- coronavirus covid covid-19
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Disney Experience
Well-Known Member
Ahh, then it could be as low as that as long as R0 < 2.5
Disney Experience
Well-Known Member
Three years (total, which is 2 years from now) if we had no vaccines make sense since the world is trying to mitigate the transmission (Thereby extended the time to achieve herd immunity [But decreasing healthcare system stress/deaths])
There is a chart in the following article on the waves of the 1918-1919 pandemic. Their peaks would be greater than we have had but the end point of the disease would have been sooner than current world if there were no vaccines.
Different type of virus but still herd immunity timeline is probably relevant.
1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics - PMC
The "Spanish" influenza pandemic of 1918–1919, which caused ≈50 million deaths worldwide, remains an ominous warning to public health. Many questions about its origins, its unusual epidemiologic features, and the basis of its pathogenicity remain ...
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Disney Analyst
Well-Known Member
That’s also assuming there is any sort of immunity that lasts that long.
Imagine we get two years from now, 60% of population has had Covid for first time, but those infected early on are now becoming reinfected...
JAKECOTCenter
Well-Known Member
I say thank goodness we got vaccines at the time we did. If the supply wasn't such a mess then I'd feel much better
GoofGoof
Premium Member
With the vaccines evenly distributed between Pfizer/Moderna/JnJ we probably need about 70% of the population vaccinated to reach 60% immune. There will be a lot of overlap between naturally immune through infection and the vaccination group as people who had covid get vaccinated too, but we may be able to get another 5-10% of the population naturally covered but not vaccinated. Should give us some cushion in the event Covid is more contagious than thought.
Needing 70% vaccinated we would need to reach 230M people. We should have enough doses to reach that by end of May if things go well with manufacturing.
Disney Experience
Well-Known Member
Another interesting article about the mitigations tried during the 1918-1919 pandemic:Three years (total, which is 2 years from now) if we had no vaccines make sense since the world is trying to mitigate the transmission (Thereby extended the time to achieve herd immunity [But decreasing healthcare system stress/deaths])
There is a chart in the following article on the waves of the 1918-1919 pandemic. Their peaks would be greater than we have had but the end point of the disease would have been sooner than current world if there were no vaccines.
Different type of virus but still herd immunity timeline is probably relevant.
1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics - PMC
The "Spanish" influenza pandemic of 1918–1919, which caused ≈50 million deaths worldwide, remains an ominous warning to public health. Many questions about its origins, its unusual epidemiologic features, and the basis of its pathogenicity remain ...
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Yeah, and the mutations add to that likelihood. Natural herd immunity is a sketchy plan at best.
JAKECOTCenter
Well-Known Member
When J&J is approved it better roll out better than Moderna and Pfizer. The planet depends on it. There are so many days where I'm hopeful and then back to doomscrolling. I know it's gonna be like this for a while but I'm just tired of it
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
I think your math might be “light”
Yeah...that math was a little “light”
That isn’t a viable option...they kinda quietly dismissed that a while back...more the “may 2020 C student medical concept”
When they say “herd immunity”...its 100% vaccine induced now.
The vaccines are effective and they’ve got the wheels turning. Forget everything else...
“This is the way”
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Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
The money and infrastructure to support manufacturing and distribution needed to be done in advance to avoid this...it wasn’t.
Six months of rallypalooza following by 2 months of “lame duck boogieman” is what we got.
Have to do better now.
Call the cavalry
GoofGoof
Premium Member
I don’t disagree. The post I originally responded to suggested that maybe this drop in cases we are seeing now is the beginning of the end due to enough people being infected naturally.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Nah...it’s just better messaging on prevention...less background noise/distraction...and people getting the s#!¥ scared out of them a little after the holiday distractions are over.
Need to open the spigot on the vaccine drip now though...let’s roll.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
7 day daily average of vaccinations up to 1.5M a day
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
7 day daily average of vaccinations up to 1.5M a day
The current admin (which is actually being staffed...for a change...) is sandbagging those numbers. The targets I’m sure are much higher in private...
Can’t get votes (which equals money) if you come in under the bar.
Scotty always fixed the warp drive in 1/4 the time he said it would take...ya know?
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JAKECOTCenter
Well-Known Member
It's good but like any progress we make will be invalid by the UK variant unless somehow the J&J vaccine goes faster than the spread7 day daily average of vaccinations up to 1.5M a day
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
I think the consensus seems to be that the two vaccination efficacies will fall...but not flatline.
Under the circumstances...it should buy time for a third booster - if needs be.
The Weather upswing in the spring combined with more vaccine net may just be the “collision” we need to get this to sustainable.
There’s always hope.
Polkadotdress
Well-Known Member
This is me. Every. Single. Day.
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