Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[correcaminos]

Vaccine isn't 100% efficacy. We want to have 100 million people vaccinated by May 1st. At 90% efficacy, that means 10 million of those people are still at risk. Some people with comorbidities won't want to risk being one of those unlucky millions for whom the vaccine fails. Some may want to wait until virus circulation has actually dropped to run naked, instead of just assuming they aren't Prim Everdeen and only have a single ticket in the Hunger Games lottery, the moment after their 14 days post shot has passed.

The key point you are missing is that there have been no deaths from those vaccinated and getting covid. I believe out of the thousands and thousands there was one severe case. So it isn't just about eliminating but also severely reducing the impact on the vaccinated. 95% will show now symptoms. 5% will. A tiny rare percentage might be not so great, but that's really not bad at all

That all said, I continue to mask up as normal and do not hesitate to act as I have been since last year until it is safe for most everyone to do so

 

[dreday3]

Yes, I do. But if someone appears to ask why someone else wouldn't feel that same level of relaxation, as you did in your response to Lilofan, they would be interested in an answer.

Or were you not trying to ask a question and were actually chastising someone for not feeling the same level of relaxation as you?

I was originally addressing a post made by Chifan, but Lilofan quoted me and stated - I admire your optimism but I do not share your belief.

So I in turn - asked what belief? That I believe the vaccine would work?

To which Lilofan said -To be bold and go mask less after the second shot ? If you want to be first, feel free

If anyone was chastising anyone for not feeling the same way as them, I think it would actually be Lilofan and yourself. But nice try.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

It will be "not safe for some or all" forever most likely when talking about COVID. At some point it will be mostly people who choose not to be vaccinated.

There are some people (not saying you are one of them) who has an attitude that until everybody is 100% safe (i.e. SARS-CoV-2 is eradicated) that we must all take precautions and keep everybody "safe." Myself an many other people aren't going to do "mitigation" in perpetuity. Everybody is not safe from the flu and we don't really do anything to keep everybody safe from that so when the per capita deaths from COVID get into the same range as a bad flu season it is perfectly reasonable to stop all the "mitigation."

Actually the flu season is down 98% this year which is nice. International travel is down of course but the hand washing and mostly masks seems to be the big reason for it. Maybe we should keep this up.. so many lives could be saved. I kid because of course it wouldn’t happen but imagine the results.
Let’s keep hoping the vast majority get this vaccine when they can.

 

[hopemax]

The key point you are missing is that there have been no deaths from those vaccinated and getting covid. I believe out of the thousands and thousands there was one severe case. So it isn't just about eliminating but also severely reducing the impact on the vaccinated. 95% will show now symptoms. 5% will. A tiny rare percentage might be not so great, but that's really not bad at all

That all said, I continue to mask up as normal and do not hesitate to act as I have been since last year until it is safe for most everyone to do so

I assure you I am not missing it. But the trials will not capture everything, especially with subsets of populations with conditions not well-represented in trials. Again, remember I started by answering a question as to why some people with comorbidities would feel less relaxed, even after vaccination, than other people. I wasn't trying to make a broader statement.

EDIT: Also adding that people normally, will take steps to avoid the annoyances of even minor illnesses So again, some vaccinated people will feel less relaxed than others as long as virus circulation is at high levels.

 

[sullyinMT]

Actually the flu season is down 98% this year which is nice. International travel is down of course but the hand washing and mostly masks seems to be the big reason for it. Maybe we should keep this up.. so many lives could be saved. I kid because of course it wouldn’t happen but imagine the results.
Let’s keep hoping the vast majority get this vaccine when they can.

Personal and corporate hygiene in addition to people staying home if they’re under the weather. Now that WFH has proven at least reasonable, I’d like to see a little more generous PTO policy work it’s way into many industries. As well as school. It would be nice if kids didn’t feel the need to tough out a sick day or two because they couldn’t make up the work in a timely fashion. Now that the infrastructure has been put in place, it shouldn’t be too much to ask for a student to make up the work online. Even if they stayed home and kept their classmates safe, they might be able to tough out a couple hours’ homework time.

 

[GoofGoof]

I don’t understand what has happened with this discussion. Here‘s my unemotional, attempt at level headed take on things.

The vaccines are a miracle accomplishment. Truly one of the greatest scientific achievements of modern times. They are something to be celebrated and applauded. The only fast way out of this pandemic is through mass vaccinations. As long as enough people buy into vaccinations we will get to herd immunity (my opinion of course). Latest poll shows only 18% of Americans say they will never get the vaccine (down from 20% in Dec) and of the people who will get it the number who say they want to wait until others go has dropped to 22% from a high of 47% in Oct. Thats a good indication that people are getting comfortable with the vaccines. It’s really good news across the board. Anyone who wants to can have any negative opinions they want about the vaccines, but IMHO it’s a huge success story.

On current statistics, I see no issue with someone being optimistic that cases and hospitalizations are dropping. People are free to not see the positives or dismiss them, I’m not trying to change minds, but others are also free to feel good about the numbers. Trending down is better than trending up. The current statistics have zero to do with reducing or removing restrictions. Cases trended way down as the first wave rolled out and we still had mask mandates in a lot of places. It’s a false narrative to assume that anyone saying anything positive is advocating for removal of restrictions. It’s possible to see statistics and be happy to see them drop and also still want to continue with mitigation efforts. I know its possible because that’s exactly where I am.

On the UK variant and others: We know for a fact that the UK variant has been identified in at least 20 states now and has been here for some period of time. Experts do not believe it is the dominant strain yet. There is strong evidence that points to the UK variant being at least partially responsible for the spike in cases in LA county. Not saying it’s the only driver, but it has likely contributed. In the NE there was also a big spike in cases that could have been impacted by it as well. So you cannot just dismiss the idea that at least some of the recent spike in cases was due to variants. It is possible that the UK or other variants cause additional spikes in cases, but that’s not a certainty either. We just don’t know for sure. Thats why the best plan is to continue with mitigation and also continue with vaccinations.

One final note on variants, even if one turns out to be resistant to the vaccines it most likely will not be fully resistant but may reduce the efficacy. Pfizer and Moderna have the ability to pretty easily alter the vaccine to adjust for that as needed. Unlike the traditional flu shot grown in chicken eggs mRNa vaccines can be made very quickly. I was talking to a friend last night who works at Pfizer and he said they are already planning for that contingency. It would likely slow vaccinations for a few weeks as they switch over the formula and then they would pick up where they left off. Anyone already vaccinated would still have some level of immunity for now and would likely receive another booster at some point with the new formula. Not the complete disaster it’s made out to be by some people. Keep the faith, wear a mask and continue to follow mitigation steps and hopefully we get to that light at the end of the tunnel soon

 

[Lilofan]

I was originally addressing a post made by Chifan, but Lilofan quoted me and stated - I admire your optimism but I do not share your belief.

So I in turn - asked what belief? That I believe the vaccine would work?

To which Lilofan said -To be bold and go mask less after the second shot ? If you want to be first, feel free

If anyone was chastising anyone for not feeling the same way as them, I think it would actually be Lilofan and yourself. But nice try.

You have apparently misunderstood. You are mistaken to assume I was saying if the vaccine would work. I don't share " your belief" to go maskless fourteen days after the second shot which you stated you have no qualms over. Your decision, your life.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

I don’t understand what has happened with this discussion. Here‘s my unemotional, attempt at level headed take on things.

The vaccines are a miracle accomplishment. Truly one of the greatest scientific achievements of modern times. They are something to be celebrated and applauded. The only fast way out of this pandemic is through mass vaccinations. As long as enough people buy into vaccinations we will get to herd immunity (my opinion of course). Latest poll shows only 18% of Americans say they will never get the vaccine (down from 20% in Dec) and of the people who will get it the number who say they want to wait until others go has dropped to 22% from a high of 47% in Oct. Thats a good indication that people are getting comfortable with the vaccines. It’s really good news across the board. Anyone who wants to can have any negative opinions they want about the vaccines, but IMHO it’s a huge success story.

On current statistics, I see no issue with someone being optimistic that cases and hospitalizations are dropping. People are free to not see the positives or dismiss them, I’m not trying to change minds, but others are also free to feel good about the numbers. Trending down is better than trending up. The current statistics have zero to do with reducing or removing restrictions. Cases trended way down as the first wave rolled out and we still had mask mandates in a lot of places. It’s a false narrative to assume that anyone saying anything positive is advocating for removal of restrictions. It’s possible to see statistics and be happy to see them drop and also still want to continue with mitigation efforts. I know its possible because that’s exactly where I am.

On the UK variant and others: We know for a fact that the UK variant has been identified in at least 20 states now and has been here for some period of time. Experts do not believe it is the dominant strain yet. There is strong evidence that points to the UK variant being at least partially responsible for the spike in cases in LA county. Not saying it’s the only driver, but it has likely contributed. In the NE there was also a big spike in cases that could have been impacted by it as well. So you cannot just dismiss the idea that at least some of the recent spike in cases was due to variants. It is possible that the UK or other variants cause additional spikes in cases, but that’s not a certainty either. We just don’t know for sure. Thats why the best plan is to continue with mitigation and also continue with vaccinations.

One final note on variants, even if one turns out to be resistant to the vaccines it most likely will not be fully resistant but may reduce the efficacy. Pfizer and Moderna have the ability to pretty easily alter the vaccine to adjust for that as needed. Unlike the traditional flu shot grown in chicken eggs mRNa vaccines can be made very quickly. I was talking to a friend last night who works at Pfizer and he said they are already planning for that contingency. It would likely slow vaccinations for a few weeks as they switch over the formula and then they would pick up where they left off. Anyone already vaccinated would still have some level of immunity for now and would likely receive another booster at some point with the new formula. Not the complete disaster it’s made out to be by some people. Keep the faith, wear a mask and continue to follow mitigation steps and hopefully we get to that light at the end of the tunnel soon

You don’t understand what happened to this discussion? Have you never visited threads here?

 

[seabreezept813]

I explained why people would continue to wear masks, like you asked. I repeat: the vaccine will not work for everyone. We already know that. That has no relevancy to your personal willingness to follow the rules. I don't understand why you keep making it about that. It's not about you. It's about what the vaccine is and isn't. It's not an impenetrable shield. Do you disagree that some vaccinated will still get sick?

I’m genuinely curious about the vaccine not working for some people. Is it that it like has zero effectiveness or is just not as effective as it is for most. Because if it’s the latter then wouldn’t that mean the majority of people are still protected from severe outcomes even if some do get run down and sick for a few weeks?

 

[Polkadotdress]

I’m genuinely curious about the vaccine not working for some people. Is it that it like has zero effectiveness or is just not as effective as it is for most. Because if it’s the latter then wouldn’t that mean the majority of people are still protected from severe outcomes even if some do get run down and sick for a few weeks?

I take a medication for a chronic illness (IV, every 8 weeks) that suppresses my immune system. There have not been trials done on immune-suppressed people, however the belief is that the vaccine may not trigger as much of a reaction as a non-suppressed person, so it won't be as effective at preventing Covid. That being said, some protection is better than no protection, and I will be getting as soon as I can.

 

[Polkadotdress]

A little herd immunity update/predicition:

The influential coronavirus model at the University of Washington is projecting 569,000 Americans will have died from Covid-19 by May 1.

This a slight increase since its last update, which projected 567,000 deaths by the same date.

The model from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) projected that by May 1, “42,800 lives will be saved by the projected vaccine rollout.”

The model expected 157 million people to be vaccinated by that time which translates to 36% of the country being immunized, assuming the vaccines are at least 50% effective.

More details: The forecasters note that overall, just half of the country is willing to accept the vaccine.

“In the US, 50.8% of people say they would accept a vaccine for Covid-19 and 25.5% say they are unsure if they would accept one," the model said.

However, the modelers also note that they do not expect the US to reach a high enough level of herd immunity to prevent a third wave next winter, “because a quarter of Americans state they will not take the vaccine and a further quarter state they are unsure.”

The forecasts also do not take into account the potential spread of the new variants first identified in the UK and South Africa, “which could extend the fall/winter surge into late spring if they spread in the US.”

 

[danlb_2000]

"The immune system will be able to fight it off ". I'm curious to see and hear the symptoms vaccinated people deal with if they get covid.

In the studies, the vaccine was considered effective if the person showed no symptoms. So, 90-95% of people who had the vaccine, never showed any symptoms. The rest likely had less server symptoms then they would have without the vaccine.

 

[hopemax]

I’m genuinely curious about the vaccine not working for some people. Is it that it like has zero effectiveness or is just not as effective as it is for most. Because if it’s the latter then wouldn’t that mean the majority of people are still protected from severe outcomes even if some do get run down and sick for a few weeks?

As others have stated the risk of severe illness is greatly reduced. For most people, it will do something.

But like my edit to my previous post... Some people will take steps to avoid the annoyances of less serious illness. Personally, no matter what bug is going around, my DH and my Dad both are rarely down for more than 2 days, and I'm down for 2-3 weeks because I inevitably get bronchitis or a sinus infection on top of whatever the bug was. It's a PITA.

 

[carolina_yankee]

There were many but just a couple -
The time it would take to develop a vaccine
The early models that estimated the death tool were way off thank goodness.

Fauci said it would take a year to 18 months to get a vaccine, that's about where it is - and not everybody can get a vaccine. By the time we can vaccinate everyone, it will be over the 12 months minimum Fauci predicted.

I don't think we know just how *lucky* we are that two companies had mRNA vaccines nearly ready to go, and that this never-before-used technology works as well as it does. JnJ won't be ready until close to the 1 year anniversary of the shutdown and still others are in the pipeline.

I don't know what the earliest models were predicting a year ago, but so far, they've been bang on for deaths the last six months or so.

We were at 300,000 deaths in November, hurtled right on to 400,000, are well on our way to 500,000 and there is no reason to think the predictions of 600,000 dead before this is brought in check won't happen.

I think you equate "wrong" with "using the best information available at the time," which, in a novel pandemic, is always changing. You may or may not have noticed that, once you sift through the noise of media chatterboxes, the experts do refine their predictions and recommendations based on new information coming in.

 

[GoofGoof]

A little herd immunity update/predicition:

The influential coronavirus model at the University of Washington is projecting 569,000 Americans will have died from Covid-19 by May 1.

This a slight increase since its last update, which projected 567,000 deaths by the same date.

The model from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) projected that by May 1, “42,800 lives will be saved by the projected vaccine rollout.”

The model expected 157 million people to be vaccinated by that time which translates to 36% of the country being immunized, assuming the vaccines are at least 50% effective.

More details: The forecasters note that overall, just half of the country is willing to accept the vaccine.

“In the US, 50.8% of people say they would accept a vaccine for Covid-19 and 25.5% say they are unsure if they would accept one," the model said.

However, the modelers also note that they do not expect the US to reach a high enough level of herd immunity to prevent a third wave next winter, “because a quarter of Americans state they will not take the vaccine and a further quarter state they are unsure.”

The forecasts also do not take into account the potential spread of the new variants first identified in the UK and South Africa, “which could extend the fall/winter surge into late spring if they spread in the US.”

I think their polling data is a little outdated. In the latest polling only 18% of Americans say they will not get a Covid vaccine. This poll was conducted Jan 11 -15.

Exclusive: Acceptance of COVID-19 vaccine is rising, but so is pessimism about getting back to normal

A USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll finds more Americans believe the COVID-19 vaccine is safe, but doubts about getting back to normal is on the rise.

news.yahoo.com

 

[Polkadotdress]

I think their polling data is a little outdated. In the latest polling only 18% of Americans say they will not get a Covid vaccine. This poll was conducted Jan 11 -15.

Exclusive: Acceptance of COVID-19 vaccine is rising, but so is pessimism about getting back to normal

A USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll finds more Americans believe the COVID-19 vaccine is safe, but doubts about getting back to normal is on the rise.

news.yahoo.com

The IMHE model was just updated this week, so their info is current.

 

[correcaminos]

I assure you I am not missing it. But the trials will not capture everything, especially with subsets of populations with conditions not well-represented in trials. Again, remember I started by answering a question as to why some people with comorbidities would feel less relaxed, even after vaccination, than other people. I wasn't trying to make a broader statement.

EDIT: Also adding that people normally, will take steps to avoid the annoyances of even minor illnesses So again, some vaccinated people will feel less relaxed than others as long as virus circulation is at high levels.

I get it so take my reply as to all, not just you

Again I'm middle here on how I feel. You'll get a mixed bag on how safe people feel. As we've seen some are ready to remove masks asap. I don't fear getting sick now really at all, but I act as usual. Others still will fear, yes.

One thing I will say, please have some faith in the trials. These were large enough populations that we have numbers to follow. I'd say this to all too, have faith in the numbers. Those vaccinated should breathe easier. No deaths. Zero. That's really good. So chances are really good for outcomes if we have a rare more severe case. That should make all breathe easier.

In the same breath those vaccinated should not throw caution to the wind. While studies show asymptomatic spread in the lab does not happen, it possibly can. You are not just vaccinating for you, you are doing it for others. So while you feel like a super hero, be smart. Keep with the procedures you have now and be aware others are still at risk.

 

[GoofGoof]

The IMHE model was just updated this week, so their info is current.

I haven’t seen a poll published since before Pfizer’s vaccine was approved and before the election that had the total expected to be vaccinated as low as 50%. There have been numerous polls conducted recently that have the number well above that. 50% was in the fall when there was a lot of uncertainty.

 

[danlb_2000]

I think their polling data is a little outdated. In the latest polling only 18% of Americans say they will not get a Covid vaccine. This poll was conducted Jan 11 -15.

Exclusive: Acceptance of COVID-19 vaccine is rising, but so is pessimism about getting back to normal

A USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll finds more Americans believe the COVID-19 vaccine is safe, but doubts about getting back to normal is on the rise.

news.yahoo.com

I think as more people get it, and people see that it's working and not causing any problems, more people will be willing to get it. There will always be some holdouts, but I think there are a lot of middle ground people who will come over.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

honesty