Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Lilofan]

Johnson and Johnson vaccine may be the miracle that the distribution needs

J&J company stock could be an attractive buy.

 

[sullyinMT]

I understand what both of you are saying, but that's not the way the system is working right now. Maybe the Biden administration will change it. But, so far, that's just not where we're at. So you either get your first dose and have some uncertainty around getting the second dose, or you don't get vaccinated at all. Those are the only two choices people have right now.

Not true at all. The hospital I work in won’t let you leave from your first dose appointment without the second dose scheduled. There are countless examples here of either lrescheduling both or scheduling #2 once you arrive for appointment #1. Responsible providers are doing it the right way.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I understand what both of you are saying, but that's not the way the system is working right now. Maybe the Biden administration will change it. But, so far, that's just not where we're at. So you either get your first dose and have some uncertainty around getting the second dose, or you don't get vaccinated at all. Those are the only two choices people have right now.

Bad situation either way. Production and additional staff will change this.

I mean i have been avoiding the magic kingdom for a few years...all those crying children. The other parks are far more enjoyable. Thanks for the tip though.

That’s what i’m here for

 

[LittleBuford]

Hopefully they remain way off for that high end. We can only hope...

Again, the estimate was imagining a situation without mitigation efforts. An eventual death toll well below the worst-case figure of 1.7 million would not mean the experts were "way off", but rather that the measures we took to combat the virus paid off.

A Disney analogy: if I told you that you would have to wait an hour to ride Space Mountain unless you got to the Magic Kingdom at rope drop, I would not be "off" if you took my advice, showed up early, and rode the attraction within fifteen minutes.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

J&J company stock could be an attractive buy.

Right...because stocks are reflective of “production”...

I needed the laugh today...thanks!

 

[GimpYancIent]

People have natural Immunity to the flu. We’ve all been exposed to it. There’s also a flu vaccine for higher risk people, so it’s possible to get vaccinated. In addition flu has some pretty good treatments that reduce the number of severe infections. We have a history of the illness to know who is most vulnerable. I know this is not new news to anyone. I thought we’d done the flu vs Covid thing to death.

Masks don’t prevent all deaths. They just reduce the spread.

Then there are quite a few people that just plain look better with a mask on.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Hopefully they remain way off for that high end. We can only hope...

But right in the range, fella

Again, the estimate was imagining a situation without mitigation efforts. An eventual death toll well below the worst-case figure of 1.7 million would not mean the experts were "way off", but rather that the measures we took to combat the virus paid off.

A Disney analogy: if I told you that you would have to wait an hour to ride Space Mountain unless you got to the Magic Kingdom at rope drop, I would not be "off" if you took my advice, showed up early, and rode the attraction within fifteen minutes.

Don’t bother...thick as granite. The professionals have been right.

Those that only care about Disney passes have been wrong...somewhat not shockingly

 

[GoofGoof]

Johnson and Johnson vaccine may be the miracle that the distribution needs because whatever is working right now isn't enough to achieve herd immunity this year or even next year.

I’m bullish on JnJ too, but just running some basic numbers that show it’s not so bad even without it:

Let’s say herd immunity requires 70% of population, that’s 231M Americans. Let’s also assume for arguments sake it’s only Pfizer and Moderna so requires 460M shots. We have 20M done so 420M more to go. There are 341 days left in the year. In order to finish this year we would need to vaccinate just under 1.3M people a day on average. The past 5 days in a row now we have not had less than 1.3M doses a day and that includes 2 weekend days now (today’s total and yesterday both at 1.3M). So if we don’t even change speed at all and continue on a pace of 1.3M a day we will hit herd immunity by the end of the year.

Using the same assumptions, if we ramp up to 2M doses a day it would take 210 days or the third week of August to reach 70% vaccinated. Without another vaccine candidate that’s about as fast as we can get done since we only have enough doses for 200M people between Pfizer and Moderna in Q1 and Q2. We would need to get the remaining 60M doses in Q3 and likely finish up in July or Aug. The point is that even without another vaccine candidate we can still reach herd immunity by the end of summer or early fall at the latest.

I 100% agree JnJ has a ton of potential and could push us to that level by end of June or even sooner. With or without we should hit herd immunity well before year end.

 

[Lilofan]

Not true at all. The hospital I work in won’t let you leave from your first dose appointment without the second dose scheduled. There are countless examples here of either lrescheduling both or scheduling #2 once you arrive for appointment #1. Responsible providers are doing it the right way.

That's true. Before I got my first Moderna shot the nurse gives you a business card with the date of the first shot which I was going to get day of and a date to return for the second shot hand written by the same nurse. That business card is gold. You need it to return for the second shot. One item I noticed is that 700 of us waited outside in 16 degree weather ( for five hours ) in first come first serve and when the nurse took our forehead temps upon entering the heated building my temp read 88 degrees. The person behind me temp read 81 degrees. Frostbite and shivering and all we still all got seen and got the shots.

 

[Lilofan]

Right...because stocks are reflective of “production”...

I needed the laugh today...thanks!

Speculation= production =profits= happy shareholders and Wall Street love fest.

 

[GoofGoof]

Vaccine Update:

1.3M more vaccinated today (2nd day in a row) moving the 7 day average to 1.16 and the avg since the start of the 100 days in office to just under 1.4M a day. 100M doses in 100 days looking very doable.

More Than 12.7 Billion Shots Given: Covid-19 Tracker

Bloomberg counted up the shots administered in 184 countries and 59 US states and territories

www.bloomberg.com

 

[carolina_yankee]

Isn’t Fauci great! Let’s hope the experts are wrong at that high end of 1.4 million dead in the US. Personally I am rooting for the experts to be wrong on that one... it’s ok I am rooting against the death count, right?

Who is predicting 1.4 million dead? That is, now, today, with information currently available?

I’m rooting for less than that, too. If that’s our benchmark, then we’ll both be happy. But 500,000 - 600,000 will likely still be dead. That won’t make me happy.

 

[sullyinMT]

Schools don't operate this way. By law, students must be allowed to make up missed work if they have an excused absence. Illness = excused absence, as does attending a funeral, and other civic responsibilities, like being called to testify in court. Vacations to WDW are not typically a valid reason to miss school, unless they are part of a field trip. Disney actually holds a number of educational programs (called the Disney Youth Education Program).

The FAR more prevalent problem is that students don't do the work they missed.

Generally, teachers WANT their students to succeed, so they do just about everything they can to get students to make up missed work: extending deadlines, reminding the student, calling parents, and talking to counselors if the student has missed any important grades.

No teacher wants to be exposed to puke, snot, diarrhea, blood, or pus. Does anyone?

More often than not, symptoms develop over a period of time. A mild runny nose could be allergies. A headache could be simple dehydration. Dismissing symptoms is easier than arranging to keep one's child home from school.

If anything, the fault lies in the other direction. Employers don't make it easy for parents and teachers to take a day off from work. Employers, including schools, penalize employees who take too many sick days.

Think about it. When a teacher takes a sick day, they turn their whole workspace over to a complete stranger. Again, is anyone comfortable doing that?

Teachers generally care a good deal about their students, and their students' success. Student success = teacher success.

That said, I agree mostly with your last sentiment. Education has evolved. Online lessons are likely here to stay!

We’re making the same general point, and I probably wasn’t clear.

Make-up work as a parent in the before times was much harder to receive. Now that schools have adopted Google Classroom or whatever platform, that is much easier to distribute to an absent student.

Also, how often have parents pumped a kid with symptom management meds and sent their kid off for the day hoping the next day symptoms clear because it’s a 24 bug, or allergies, or whatever? Going forward, the same student can still muscle through a day of Google Classroom work, mom or dad or a guardian has a better WFH policy and they’re an accountant or other office worker. Nobody “misses” a day and their immediate contacts are safer until the root cause of the symptoms are better known.

 

[Kevin_W]

Vaccine Update:

1.3M more vaccinated today (2nd day in a row) moving the 7 day average to 1.16 and the avg since the start of the 100 days in office to just under 1.4M a day. 100M doses in 100 days looking very doable.

More Than 12.7 Billion Shots Given: Covid-19 Tracker

Bloomberg counted up the shots administered in 184 countries and 59 US states and territories

www.bloomberg.com

I stand (happily) corrected on my prediction that weekend vaccinations would drop substantially.

 

[sullyinMT]

I stand (happily) corrected on my prediction that weekend vaccinations would drop substantially.

The reason we’re not seeing them fall off now probably has a lot to do with commercial pharmacies coming online, and the few mass vaccine sites opened in the big population centers.

 

[Kevin_W]

The reason we’re not seeing them fall of now probably has a lot to do with commercial pharmacies coming online, and the few mass vaccine sites opened in the big population centers.

Agreed. The commercial pharmacies are used to a 7-day schedule. I would have thought the hospitals were too, but I guess not.

 

[sullyinMT]

Agreed. The commercial pharmacies are used to a 7-day schedule. I would have thought the hospitals were too, but I guess not.

Hospitals, yes. Some of the outlying clinics (primary care, etc), that were being utilized, not as much or as robustly.

At least in my employer’s situation, the vaccine clinic had nurses of all specialties doing the injections, but just about everyone else running the service was very non-clinical, and very accustomed to a 5-day work week. We’ve eventually adapted, but weekend hours are very limited (8-12), where pharmacies are more accustomed to their retail hours.

 

[GoofGoof]

I stand (happily) corrected on my prediction that weekend vaccinations would drop substantially.

Very exciting to see. I’m not satisfied yet though. I want to see us hit 2M a day by the end of Jan. New unofficial target.

The reason we’re not seeing them fall off now probably has a lot to do with commercial pharmacies coming online, and the few mass vaccine sites opened in the big population centers.

Agreed. The commercial pharmacies are used to a 7-day schedule. I would have thought the hospitals were too, but I guess not.

Yes, agreed on this. Where I am in PA they haven’t even fully started yet at pharmacies. It’s supposed to ramp up in the next few weeks. I am hoping to see a huge spike in vaccinations when that happens. We are doing pretty well in my county but there’s always room for improvement.

 

[Lilofan]

Very exciting to see. I’m not satisfied yet though. I want to see us hit 2M a day by the end of Jan. New unofficial target.


Yes, agreed on this. Where I am in PA they haven’t even fully started yet at pharmacies. It’s supposed to ramp up in the next few weeks. I am hoping to see a huge spike in vaccinations when that happens. We are doing pretty well in my county but there’s always room for improvement.

If pharmacies start vaccinating , in PA it will surely be freezing to be standing outside waiting to get in. Bundle up!

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Speculation= production =profits= happy shareholders and Wall Street love fest.

The stocks are “gaining” with basically no economies...

I think Oz’s curtain has developed a rip or two